Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD
GBP/USD trading near main resistance 1.5909, if GBP/USD break above this level, then it may probably extend another 150 pips towards 1.6050.
If current resistance 1.5909 hold tight, minor support 1.5780, 1.57, major support at 1.5650.

Prefer trading short now, observe development of reversal pattern at current high (1.5886) or 1.6050 region.

EUR/USD
Recent high 1.3455, and and 1.3496 (Dec-2010) present a good opportunity to short.
breaking above this high means EUR/USD will rally towards 1.3620.
My preference is to the downside, pick short around 1.3450.
If formed a reversal pattern at current high, expect minor support at 1.3250, 1.3150.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on Monday 17-Jan-2011

My senior Wink Market Raider has posted call to Long last friday on DJIA, Long at 11709, SL 11679 (Friday Low 11698, means traders are safe!), TG 11790.

I always admire master Walter's view in the market and I believe trading in this market is a bit tricky now for some new traders, just visit our forum regularly for more market insights!

Many would have regard that DJIA oversold, divergence, double divergence, and must come down, yes, it must, however, we believe that it will not come down today, not tomorrow, and we still believe that DJIA bull may last until end of this month, and slowly, slowly rally towards the 12050 region, and ultimate target 12250.

In line with our previous week forecast, congratulations to those who followed my long at 11600-570, which level have you bought DJIA? :) the lowest DJIA has go is 11573 on Monday, and it never revisit any price below 11600 in the remaining trading days ~ move your SL, and enjoy the ride yeeeeha!

DJIA Support: 11680. Strong Support 11635.
As long as DJIA didn't trade below the strong support 11635 in the following week, I regard DJIA uptrend intact. Aggressive traders may initiate long when u observe DJIA retrace to this support 11680 with reversal pattern. SL may be placed at 11615-600, aim for 11800 as first target, and 12000.
Those who added a new position on Friday and taken profit of 90 points, congratulations.
I maintain my long view target 11816, 12033, 12250.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 17-Jan-2011

Didn't get the long entry as my previous week's forecast, but the uptrend is soooooo beautiful, hit target and higher and higher...

Those who followed Sarah's call to Long must be very happy sitting in profit position now Good job Sarah!
She is a fast learner and has been very timely with her update and good forecast. Sifu said Sarah is a good thinker. Agree!

Intraday support 2310, Support 2: 2300, Strong Support: 2294.
Resistance: 2320, 2400, 2470.

Intraday pick long at 2310, SL 2305, TG 2320-2350.
For the week, pick long 2300 SL 2294, TG 2380-400.

I hope you like what I share, I hope all are happy for the profit you make from the market, enjoy the ride and hope all can make Big angpow for Chinese New Year.

I strongly encourage all traders from KL to attend Henry & Aaron's ProMaster workshop this coming weekend i.e. 22nd & 23rd January 2011, this is a must go event, Trader ProMaster concludes Sifu DAR Wong's proven trading method and successful traders' trading concept, and most importantly, the module is delivered in the most simple manner!! As I am the product of ProMaster, I can learn, you can learn too. Contact JC to register. Details click here.

Visit APSRI Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/
Visit APSRI DJIA Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8
For details on ProMaster program that I have attended, click here: http://www.traderpromaster.com/index.html

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog, click here: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/

Gold on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Gold on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)

I shorted Gold at 1385, Gold market has Triggered my stop loss on Thursday night 13/1/2011 @ 1391, resisted at 1392, form a candlestick reversal pattern (bearish engulfing) and .... and dive down.
Price go back to entry, and entered to my target price.

Taken my losses, happy for the little loss of 6pts.
I'm looking forward to retracement for another short entry.

Reckon market to find support like previous low 1352 (Friday low 1354).
This time, retracement won't go too far, may be 1367, max 1377.

I would possibly place my short at 1373-1377, SL 1385.
Target exit 1350, 1330, 1315. revised: 1358, 1344, 1330

Silver on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)
Didn't trade on Silver, but it seems that my pick to Short 29.26 or 29.76 seems fine.. and market turn after 2nd short level.

Yet to hit target price 27.586, Friday low 28.059.  Make all figures look simple... from now on... I will post 2 decimal...
Reckon market to retrace to 28.92,  pick short at 28.92, SL 29.06 (14 cents), TG 28.35 (57 cents), Ultimate TG 27.60 (132 cents).

Silver contract size is big for me... Trading Gold means cannot trade Silver :p
Lets get Silver contracts explained:

Silver Futures
Product Symbol: SI
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 5,000 troy ounces
Min Tick Size EFP = 0.005 (0.5 cents) per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $25 per contract
1 full Point (1 cent) correspondent to = $50 per contract

Trading Example:
Sell 5,000 troy ounce of Silver @ 28.920 per troy ounce = USD 144,600
Buy 5,000 troy ounce of Silver @ 27.600 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,230
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking SI at 5% now, my preferred broker also offer 5%.
Profit = +132 cents correspond to Profit = +USD 6,600
ROI = 91%

Good news, I just knew another broker offer mini versions of all Standard Spot Metals contracts at 10% of the main contract size.
meaning, in this case, margin requirement is USD 723 for 1 mini contract :)

Disclaimer: Margin product (leveraged product) like Gold and Silver can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Trading margin product may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, control your risk and do not let Greed overtake you.

Gold Bar Image extraced from Amazon:


Related Post: Gold Futures and Silver Futures

Renovation

Have renovated a bit ...

Sorry to some RSS subscriber, cuz I clicked "Publish" while I am doing the tidy up... and some of you may receive some messy blog logo and header thingy... sorry sorry :p my mistake.

After the renovation, I feel more like it now... finally got my icon near the address bar... yes, Finally!

Have been working this morning since 3am.. hit the pillow and slept, and missed the meeting with my group member on Facebook! :p checked on FB... nobody has posted anything... so... Hope that everything is fine without my presence (finding excuses).

Coming up... Gold  Forecast and DJIA update.
Coming up... my favourite FX pair GBP/USD, and some other major currencies.

Stay tuned!

Video tutorial

I am thinking of creating video tutorial on top of my blog posts in writing..

If you have recommendation of the video editing software, please post your comment here or send me an email at AyumitTader@gmail.com.

If the software have ability to convert baby-girl-like voice to a sexy gal voice would be best :) hahhaa

Thank you!

Gold Trading and Contract Specifications

Average Day Range for Gold = $13.

little tutorial on Gold Futures:
Product Symbol: GC
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 100 troy ounces
Min Tick Size = 0.10 per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $10
1 full point correspondent to = $100

Example: Short Gold Futures Profit
Gold Price @ 1,400 USD, Short
When Gold is trading at 1,399.90 USD = +$10.00
When Gold is trading at 1,399.00 USD = +$100.00

Example: Short Gold Futures Trade
You decide to go short one near-month Comex Gold Futures contract at the price of USD 1400.00/oz. Since each Gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold, the value of the contract is USD 140,000. To enter the short futures position, you have to put up an initial margin of USD 7,000.

A week later (or in our case, a day later), the price of gold falls and correspondingly, the price of Comex Gold futures drops to USD 1380.00 per troy ounce. Each contract is now worth only USD 138,000. So by closing out your futures position now, you can exit your short position in Gold Futures with a profit of USD 2,000.

Sell 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,400 per troy ounce = USD 140,000
Buy 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,380 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,000
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking GC at 5% now, my preferred broker offer 3%
Profit = USD 2,000
ROI = 28%

In our case, if we convert this trade to our trading P/L log... Sell $1415 - Buy $1382 = +$33
Risk : Reward ratio = 1 : 4
$3,300 / $ 7,000 = 47% ROI
Congratulations.

*1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams.
1 troy ounce = 120 carats

Disclaimer: Margin trading involves Risk, only take calculated risk and do not let greed overtake you.

Related Post:
Gold Futures and Silver Futures
Gold Futures explained (Video)
The Options Guide
Gold on 5th Jan

Van Tharp interview

Howdy! It has been another great trading week, we adhere to our plans, we take profit, we take losses as well :)

Today, I would like share what i read from Van Tharp's newsletter... read the last paragraph with highlights!

What was the intent of your 131R goal?
To pull me out of my comfort zone.
Was that a success?
It was! I made a number of changes from the year prior and gained some very good trading experience doing things I would not have done otherwise (e.g., trading one minute bars and some new systems). And I got out of my comfort zone for gains with a +35R month.
Does not making 131R by the end of 2010 mean you won't make 131R, now, next year, or ever?
Not a bit.
If you didn't get to 131R this year, could there have been something more important that you were supposed to achieve and did?
Getting my family settled in a home, and gaining a much better understanding of myself and how I want to trade now.
Are those are more valuable than 131R?
Yes.
If you think you are not attached to a goal and then you don't get it but find yourself upset, were you really not attached to it?
No.

How do you reconcile desire/commitment with non-attachment?

I didn't have an answer for this one initially. After some reading and thinking, however, here is what I would say.

Desire and commitment help motivate me to fulfill my purpose. It's possible to use them to move away from my purpose but not useful—regardless of the goal. Goals aligned with my purpose merit my energy and commitment.

Non-attachment is the ability to let go, and it means I have trust in a Divine plan and a bigger picture. With non-attachment to a goal, winning means I may or may not achieve the goal.

Achievement is not my job; my job is to do my very best with the tasks at hand and not worry about meeting the objective. There is a dance here among desire, commitment, and non-attachment that I am still learning.

Van Tharp's Workshop : go to this Link

Updates

Hi all, I do not have much time for a full posting today, before I go off, I wished to post some quick updates on some major currency and Gold.

EUR/USD

Trading near to resistance level, hopefully market continue to retrace, remain same view, only to pick short at key resistance level 1.3050.

Related Post: Weekly forecast (FX)

USD/JPY
Position open on USD/JPY.
Long 82.80 SL 82.50 TG 84.50

DJIA

2308 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks mixed, hurt by telecommunication companies as investors mulled the impact of the expected launch of Apple''s iPhone for Verizon and as worries mounted over the health of the euro-zone economy. Sprint Nextel fell 2.1% and AT&T shed 1.8% in the wake of confirmation over the weekend that Verizon Wireless will officially announce Tuesday that it will carry Apple''s iPhone, which initially had only been available on the AT&T network. Dupont fell 1.5%, after agreeing to acquire Denmark''s Danisco in a $6.3 billion deal. Investors said the market''s pullback was a natural reaction after its climb in the last quarter of 2010 stretched into last week. Portfolio managers also are waiting for earnings reports to revise their outlooks and see which sectors are poised to do well in the new year. "Earnings in the first half of the year should be pretty good. I''m concerned a little bit about the second half," said Richard Sherry, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management. "Companies have been doing a good job of managing costs, but as we go through the year it will become more difficult," as investors watch to see which companies are exhibiting growth, he said. DJIA down 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly semicons +1.0%. (by: rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)

Link: Dow Jones NewsPlus

Gold

Gold is also trading upward and trading near our favourite resistance level, remember we favour 1382-85, and 1391-1400.

Related: Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Although we forecast market to retrace (go up), but don't you see that I do not trade Long?

Perseverance

记得以前接触“毅力”这名词的时候，是在运动场上面。。
通常我们在比赛以前，都会经过无数的训练，操练，比如，环绕校园跑圈，在校园里面跑楼梯……

Ayumi曾经也是运动员哦！以前参加400米赛跑，800米长跑，1500米也有。如果没有记错的话，是中学的最后一年，我们班原本参加4x400的其中一位健儿受伤不能上场，就很幸运地，让我顶替她的位子，能够和班上的精英一起比赛，我觉得很幸运。而且也拿了冠军。
太远了。。。

不过，如今让我记忆犹新，而且充满感动的，并不是金牌。
而是第一次参加3000米比赛，也是高三最后一年，和我最要好的朋友E一起参加。
我记得，肌肉已经酸麻，气喘的不行，我跑得越来越慢，甚至，用走的。。。“走”到靠近观众席的时候，我记得一个很大很大的声音告诉我：“不要停”。

在靠近起跑点，在靠近观众席的时候，我们听到朋友的欢呼，听到好朋友的鼓励，即使多么累，都拿出仅存的力气，继续跑。。

可是，当我们离开观众席越来越远的时候，这些声音变弱了，意志力也变弱了。。

毅力是什么呢？

在有人的时候努力表现，在暗地里慢慢执行。
怀疑自己的时候，忽略这个可怕的声音，继续作战。
相信自己的时候，把握这个信心，勇往直前。

我们，都是一步一步走向前，赢回自己的人生。
千里之行，始于足下。向前走一步，就是开始。

谢谢最好的你。谢谢陪我冲线的E。

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Bear in play.
Expect a little bit of retracement to pick short @ Resistance 1.3050.
Monday can practise initial shadow for short entry near 1.2940, SL 1.2980, TG 1.2800.
For position trade, short at 1.3050, SL 1.31 (-50 pips), TG 1.2600 (+350 pips).

Beware of Thursday announcement.
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 20:45 (GMT+8) EUR - minimum bid rate
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 21:30 (GMT+8) EUR - ECB press conference

GBP/USD

Favourite pair.  Consolidating in big swing.
Suspect GBP/USD to trade in range before any meaningful breakout is spotted.  Range for the week before breakout: 1.5650 - 1.5400.

Breaking above 1.5700, GBP/USD may find another resistance level near 1.5800, so SL must be set tight.

My preference is to the downside, therefore, picking short near key resistance level at 1.5650 is preferred, with my downside target at 1.5300, and 1.5100 in Feb-11.

My position trade would to short at 1.5660, SL 1.5700 (-40 pips), TG 1.5300 (+360 pips).

USD/JPY

Higher and higher, resistance 84.50, 85.90.
Support 82.83, 82.30.
Find good long opportunity near 82.80 or 82.30 region, SL 30 pips, TG at resistance level.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

We attended a power-packed talk at Bukit Kewangan, Bursa Malaysia last Saturday, it is soooooo Great to meet our Sifu and Helen Ong at the talk, we learn to locate our wealth spot and yes~~~ goodness mari mari home~! :) I feel so charged up to meet our Sifu, masters, seniors and KLKK traders and learn together :)

I wish all benefited from the talk and let us construct our ultimate wealth portfolio for a lifetime, together!

DJIA on Monday 10-Jan-2011

Day chart shows DJIA moving in uptrend, support 11530.
This week, we expect DJIA to trade in high-low of 11750-11550. Avoid to trade when market is ding-dong-ing, watch the market and to pick long 11600-11570, SL 11530. Abandon long view in case 11530 support is breached. DJIA may then dip to 11450, and further test 11350.

In view of DJIA uptrend, we are looking forward to DJIA breaking above 11742 (Jan-05 High) this week, progressively to reach 1st Target 11816, 2nd Target 12033 and 3rd Target 12250 in coming weeks.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 10-Jan-2011

Similar to Dow, Nasdaq 100 support at 2237, strong support at 2209.
suggest to pick long 2260 region, SL 2254-2250. Abandon long if Nasdaq 100 break below 2250, it is likely to go below 2240 and further to 2210.

Target exit for Long 2300.

Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Those who followed Ayumi the Novice Trader blog would have know that we are only going to short Gold when it when it travels to 1382-85 for shorts, in other words, if market never touch this level, we do nothing.

It is good that we stayed sideline, the price action is a volatile and the consolidation is simply going to drive your blood pressure to new high, or new low.
Without creating much pressure, and stress, stay out is the best position.

Gold

After a serious rally on Gold since Jan-2010, Gold market is due for a correction before this uptrend continues.
Current high of 1430 and 1423 formed a nice H/S pattern.
The low on Last Friday 1352, is this already the low that Gold can go?
Ayumi say no... correction has not finished.
However, the reversal sign on day chart, signals a possible retracement to 1382-85, even up to 1391-1400 resistance.
Only pick shorts at good resistance level like what we mentioned.
1st downside target stays at 1350, followed by 1330, 1315.

Related: Gold on 7-Jan-11

Silver

Spotted inner wave down on 3-Jan-2011, and hit 3L Double bottom 28.296.
Market likely to continue south, suggest to pick short on retracement level near 29.300, or 29.800 region.
Downside target 27.600 region.

Gold on 7-Jan-2011 (Fri)

Market has showed little support near 1363 and it is likely to continue its consolidation.
Beware of tonight's Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate.

Traders who still holding their short position are encouraged to take profit near this support.
if market turns up, I am looking at 1382-85 resistance level to plant shorts.

Downside target remain at 1350.

I do not think that market will get any higher than 1391... however, if market has break above 1391, it may rally towards 1400, plan your SL right.

You can Imagine

Source: The Daily Motivator

Let yourself imagine the best you can imagine. Imagine a world so beautiful and compelling that you cannot help but do all that's in your power to make it Real.

Imagination never runs out. Go ahead and use it freely, for the more you make use of it, the more you'll have.
Every experience gives you more substance on which to base your imagination. And whatever you imagine provides you with possibilities for even more beautiful experiences.

Don't limit yourself to merely imagining what is reasonable. Though reason certainly has its place, it quickly grows stale without fresh infusions of free and untamed imagination.

You can imagine anything, so make positive and meaningful use of your powerful imagination. You can imagine anything, so imagine your way to a life of joy and fulfillment.

Your imagination is truly a powerful skill, and yet once you imagine that is not the end of it. For not only can you imagine, you can take whatever you imagine and find a way to bring it to life.

Let yourself imagine the best you can imagine. Imagine a world so beautiful and compelling that you cannot help but do all that's in your power to make it real.

Read more: GreatDay

Updates

Good day! It is drizzling out there, and the weather is cooling, comforting, and relaxing~
Lets have a go thru the updates on all 3 markets that we watch:

GBP/USD

Phew! Precision!
We have a good start of the year by shorting GBP/USD earlier at 1.5650, SL 690 (-40pipis), TG 460 (+210 pips), everything has moved pretty fast, that we at Ayumi the Novice trader believe GBP/USD may still have room to reach higher, I am happy that we took profit, closed the position and do not need to struggle to watch the market consolidate between 650-450 (200 pips).

What we foresee is GBP/USD find its base at 450 / 430 strong, and continue to reach higher to 1.5800! sounds crazy huh?  Firstly, GBP/USD must cross above current high of 1.5660 to confirm the rally.  By end of the week, lets see how the announcement will push the market higher.

If not this week, then will GBP/USD reach 1.58-1.60 again before 21-Jan-11?
I do not know.. lets see how things unfold...

Support Resistance remain the same as my previous post (3-Jan-11).
R3: 1.5800
R2: 1.5730
R1: 1.5630 (BKO)
S1: 1.5530
S2: 1.5430 (BKO)
*all figures rounded to nearest 30, or multiple of 10

Related Post: GBP/USD on 3-Jan-11
Related Post: Weekly Forecast 3-Jan-11 (FX)

DJIA

On 4-Jan-2011 (Monday closing) we forecasted DJIA to find its minor support 11630, and strong support 11530.
DJIA has actually come to a low of 11635 on Tuesday, resisted at 11700, to me, this is a psychological play because I almost think that the momentum would have slowed down... BUT! DJIA edged higher tonight, marking a new high at 11742, closing @ 11722.

what does all these means... We missed the entry (to long), but we still remain the view that DJIA is going towards 11850.

Ultimate TG: 12300
Resistance 2: 12000
Resistance 1: 11850
Support 1: 11630
Support 2: 11530

Related Post: DJIA on 4-Jan-2011 (Monday Closing)
Weekly Forecast - DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Gold

updated last night, click here = 2nd Kill, Gold on 5-Jan-2011

2nd Kill ~ Gold on 5-Jan-2011

Pattern developed and confirmed!
Yes!

Remember when I posted the Gold forecast yesterday, Gold was trading at 1415, drum rolls~~~~ it has break below 1400 support level, in which it has turned to a strong resistance, and now went below 1382.
Gold is trading at 1375 now.

Resistance 1: 1400
Current resistance: 1385
Minor Support 1360.
Next support 1350.

Average Day Range for Gold = $13.

little tutorial on Gold Futures:
Product Symbol: GC
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 100 troy ounces
Min Tick Size = 0.10 per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $10
1 full point correspondent to = $100

Example: Short Gold Futures Profit
Gold Price @ 1,400 USD, Short
When Gold is trading at 1,399.90 USD = +$10.00
When Gold is trading at 1,399.00 USD = +$100.00

Example: Short Gold Futures Trade
You decide to go short one near-month CME Gold Futures contract at the price of USD 1400.00/oz. Since each Gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold, the value of the contract is USD 140,000. To enter the short futures position, you have to put up an initial margin of USD 7,000.

A week later (or in our case, a day later), the price of gold falls and correspondingly, the price of CME Gold futures drops to USD 1380.00 per troy ounce. Each contract is now worth only USD 138,000. So by closing out your futures position now, you can exit your short position in Gold Futures with a profit of USD 2,000.

Sell 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,400 per troy ounce = USD 140,000
Buy 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,380 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,000
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking GC at 5% now, my preferred broker offer 3%
Profit = USD 2,000
ROI = 28%

In our case, if we convert this trade to our trading P/L log... Sell $1415 - Buy $1382 = +$33
Risk : Reward ratio = 1 : 4
$3,300 / $ 7,000 = 47% ROI
Congratulations.

Disclaimer: Margin trading involves Risk, only take calculated risk and do not let greed overtake you.

Related Post: Gold on 4-1-2011
Gold Futures and Silver Futures
Gold Futures explained (Video)
The Options Guide

Horoscope and My additional Resolutions

I am reading the Cleo magazine for Jan-11, Love the Yearly Resolution part, and the Horoscope report!!
especially when it says... ♥ it is a great y ear, dear Aquarius! 2011 is all about unexpected surprises, dreams coming through and goals being realised. ♥

And the resolution 2011, I love the idea of the following and I'm going to do this:
1. Pay your bills promptly (Marked on my Diary, yey!)
2. Set aside a holy hour just for yourself (Reminding myself)
3. Eat raw veggies (Reminding myself again, my fav Caesar Salad with Croutons)
4. Stay away from the computer for 24 hours (Great idea! once a month)
5. Turn the phone off for a day (once a month)
6. Meditate. Five minutes or 30 minutes (3.5 times in a week)

Get your own copy of Cleo Magazine~ :)

Do it one step at a day, do 1 major task in a week, focus, and prioritize.
Gambate
-Ayumi-

Gold on 4-1-2011

Favourite Head & Shoulder pattern developed, with the right shoulder poised at high 1423.
Resistance2: 1430
Resistance1: 1424
Current Support 1400
Support 1: 1382
Support 2: 1350

DJIA on 4-Jan-2011

Uptrend likely to continue towards 11850.
Market has rally sharply on the 1st trading day, it has break above 29/12/10 high 11630, this level shall act as a minor support the uptrend for this week. Strong support 11530.

Looking forward to DJIA breaking 11850 (2008-08 high) and 12000 and 12300.


Quote:

US Stocks Close At Two-Year Highs In Strong Start To 2011
By DONNA KARDOS YESALAVICH
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks started 2011 with a bang Monday, reaching fresh two-year closing highs as improved manufacturing and construction data boosted investors' outlook for the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 93.24 points, or 0.81%, to 11670.75, its highest close since Aug. 28, 2008. The climb represented the measure's biggest move since Dec. 3, the third time in a row it rose on the first trading day of the year and its seventh gain in the past nine sessions.

Bank of America led the measure's climb, jumping 6.4%. The banking giant said it expects to take a provision of about $3 billion in the fourth quarter to buy back bad loans from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that were issued by its troubled Countrywide Financial unit. Investors were relieved to see the size of the hit from the bad-loan repurchases quantified.

Alcoa and Boeing were also strong, boosted by upgrades from analysts. Alcoa climbed 2.7% after Deutsche Bank raised its investment rating on the aluminum giant's stock to buy from hold, citing "growing optimism" for higher aluminum prices and a belief "Alcoa has turned the corner from an operational point of view." Boeing rose 1.8% after J.P. Morgan upgraded it to overweight from neutral, citing an improving outlook for core commercial aircraft.

However, Intel fell 0.9%. Piper Jaffray cut its investment rating on the stock to neutral from overweight, saying Intel is missing the wave of "ultramobile devices," and it expects personal-computer unit growth to decline.

The Nasdaq Composite added 38.65, or 1.46%, to 2691.52, its highest close since Dec. 26, 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 14.23, or 1.13%, to 1271.87, its highest close since Sept. 3, 2008.

Volume rebounded from last week's meager levels but was still below the 2010 daily average. Just over 4.5 billion shares changed hands in New York Stock Exchange composite trading during Monday's session; the 2010 daily average was 4.8 billion.

"There's some real optimism for the market for 2011," said Malcolm Polley, president and chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors. "There's a lot of things with potential for this year."

Polley noted that, historically, the third year of a presidential administration has typically been a positive year for the market. In addition, he has been encouraged by the indications for consumer spending from the Christmas shopping season.

A positive start to the year also tends to bode well for the rest of the year. Since 1945, when the S&P 500 has risen on the first day of the year, it has averaged a gain of 10.6% for that year, according to Birinyi Associates.

If stocks climb during the rest of the month, that would also be a strong indication for the rest of the year. Over the past 82 years, when the S&P 500 rose in January it also rose on the year 73% of the time, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P.

Monday's gains in U.S. stocks followed rallies overseas, with Europe's markets lifted by euro-zone manufacturing data that showed the sector's expansion accelerated more than expected in December.

Boosting sentiment for the U.S., a reading on manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management rose, with its new-orders index jumping. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose for a third consecutive month during November.

The data helped bolster investors' expectations for a host of other U.S. economic updates due this week, including retailers' December sales and the government's monthly nonfarm payrolls.

Among stocks in focus, Barnes & Noble climbed 9% after the book seller said its preliminary holiday same-store sales surged 9.7%, partly thanks to strong sales of its Nook e-reader device.

Clorox tumbled 2.7%. Weak sales of disinfectants, bleach and cat litter in the U.S. caused the household-products giant to project fiscal second-quarter earnings and sales below analysts' estimates.

---By Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2188; donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com

Comment from Mentor...

Related Post: Reflection

GBP/USD on 3-Jan-2011

Closed GBP/USD short position.

Good start 2011.

+210 pips.

:)

Related Post: Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD on 25-Dec-2010

Back to Ayumi Trader

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Finally GBP/USD showed a bottom on 28-Dec-2010 at 1.5342.
Which is very close to a strong support level of 1.5330.  Refer to my posting on GBP/USD 25-Dec-2010.
Good to see GBP/USD rebounded to 1.56 region, and this is also 50% of the fibo retracement from previous top 1.5909 on 14-Dec-2010.
But, how high would GBP/USD go?

R3: 1.5800
R2: 1.5730
R1: 1.5630
S1: 1.5530
S2: 1.5430 (*all figures rounded to nearest 30, or multiple of 10)

My short on 1.5650 works just fine, but it came a bit too early, I guess there're still room for advancement to 1.5800 region.
Therefore, my short at 1.5650,  SL 1.5690, -40pips.  I am going to close this position when GBP/USD is trading at 1.5460, aim for 210 pips profit.

Day range for GBP/USD: 130 pips

EUR/USD on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

R3: 1.3750
R2: 1.3530
R1: 1.3430
S1: 1.3300
S2: 1.3250

I have 2 thoughts on EUR/USD:
1) This week, expect EUR/USD to trade in consolidation within the range of 1.3350-1.3100.
The high of 1.3423 on 31-Dec-2010 act as a resistance.

The low of 1.3053 on 23-Dec-2010 must not be breached, and act as a strong support.

2) If EUR/USD has break above the high of 1.3423, it is going to continue its bullishness until 1.3500, it must make a higher high within this week to confirm the reversal.  And lead us to new high in coming weeks, target 1.40 region.

My position: Sideline.
Day range for EUR/USD: 100 pips

Related Post: GBP/USD on 25-Dec-2010
GBP/USD on 21-Dec-2010

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Resistance 2: 11730

Resistance 1: 11630

Support 1: 11520
Support 2: 11420

Expect the bullish momentum to continue, for DJIA to rally towards recent high of 11630 and further to 11730.
This week, DJIA has to break above the high of 11625 and mark new high to at least 11650.  Failing which would signal a good chance to short and expect the market to correct to 1st support 11520 and 2nd target 11420.

Traders with Long position enjoy the long, slow ride, traders with short view need to wait patiently for a clear reversal sign.

Nasdaq 100 on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Strong resistance of 2240 remain an important level to watch, switch to 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been trading in the range of 2240-2200, with the top & bottom both tested 3 times...

The momentum has slowed down, but the market may rally higher due to after-party.  However, if the price has fall below 2200 in coming week, chances are Nasdaq 100 going to 2185 or strong support 2165.

You have to Be, before you can Do.

Thanks HP for sharing this article on Facebook..

Life Lesson: Be-Do-Have
Why So Many Struggle So Hard
Read the full article here: Staci Stallings

Something interesting I've noticed:
True life lessons work and translate to many different areas of life.

This revelation hit me the other day while I was listening to a cassette on having financial balance in your life. On the tape, the author talked about a goal setting seminar he went to. The lesson he was revealing is that too often when we set goals, we are setting the "have" part of the equation, then "doing" the work of getting to the goal without ever making the effort to "be" anything.

If you're paying attention, there's a math lesson that translates to this message. Any math person will tell you that there is a definite order to life. A + B = C, and if you get it out of that order, even the simplest of ideas can get overwhelmingly confusing. So this equation must begin with "be" not "do" or "have."

....

The problem is that this is completely senseless when you understand the equation of "be-do-have."

When you truly get this life lesson, it will have a profound impact on every aspect of your life. No longer will you focus solely on the goal-now you will focus on who you must first become, and the attainment of the goals will follow.

"they who have been forced to "be" are now "doing" and "having""
I know, it sounds Pollyanna. It sounds so simple. But it's the simple-sounding things that are often the most difficult to actually do. I see this turmoil in teenagers a lot. They think that their identity is created by who they are with, what they wear, what their outward appearance is. The reality, however, is that identity is based on who you are.

That's why you hear of 10 and 20 year high school reunions in which the popular kids are now struggling and some of the most unpopular kids are now the successful adults. When you understand this equation, it makes perfect sense. Think about it. In high school, the "popular" kids already "have." They have the status, the good looks, the admiration of others. Why work for something you already have?

The unpopular kids on the other hand are forced to find their true identity not in the outer world, but in the inner world. So they work on themselves rather than on what the outside world says is important. Thus, 10 or 20 years down the road, they who have been forced to "be" are now "doing" and "having" in much greater proportion than those who "had" everything.

To be sure, this is a vast generalization. There are popular kids who take time out to work on themselves and "become," and there are unpopular kids who want to "have" so badly that they contort who they are trying to fit in. The exceptions are there, but so is the rule.

You have to Be before you can do, and
you have to Do before you can Have.
If you don't, nothing you ever get will be enough. And
if you do, whatever you have will be plenty.
With this in mind, find some time today to fit a little "being" time into your "to-do" list.
It may just turn out to be the best time investment you could ever make.

© Staci Stallings

Read the full article here: Staci Stallings

Reflection

This thought came into my mind this morning...

Which time frame to trade?
If I am trading for the Day, I look into intraday chart - 30 minutes would be sufficient to get a good entry.
If I am trading for few Days, ditto.
in this case, a weekly chart would help to identify the trend and help to see the big picture.
monthly chart, seldom use, just a peek into it..

What if, I am going to be a 'hourly' trader?
Similarly, I can use Day chart to identify trend, 30 minutes to sharpen entry, and may be, even smaller time frame like 15 minutes?

Should get killed when mentor read this 15 minutes chart thing... >.<

Which style I am most comfortable with? and whether I am ok with it?

I am ok with the Day chart and 30 minutes chart nowadays, I wonder: Is that because I have less time to trade, therefore, I compromise?

hm....
Lets frame it with better words...
Ayumi has become flexible, and now trading in a bigger time frame...

What if, when I gain the total freedom again, that I can just sit in front of my Lappy and watch the candle blocks, one by one, every 30 minutes?

No matter what, how, which strategy we use, it must be our strategy, our style.
What is my style?  Flexible is my style.

I have been brought up by my cool mother, disciplined, loyal, business minded, stable, organised, and secured.
I have a even more cool father, he has a golden finger, that he can turn a bottle of red wine into a good money making opportunity, and can turn a broken motorbike into a spare part business...  According to mum, he can see opportunities through his naked eyes... making money from businesses is not a problem for him, networking and connection is just simply a born skill.

I think my father makes a good speculator, Ayumi deem myself a speculator in my blood; a stable, disciplined, organised personality in my mind...

I think this is how and why Ayumi present an unlimited potential... and I believe many others do, we just need to work hard, and polish...

4 days to new year, 1 month + 1 week to Chinese New Year...
work hard everyday, unlimited opportunities awaits...
work 1 step a day, and never stop... we may be slow, we may be fast, we are ''in progress''.

Good read, go and read this article from T. Harv Eker's Blog:
The Resolution That Lasts a Lifetime

GBP/USD on 25-Dec-2010

As Ayumi trader mentioned on 21-Dec-10, if GBP/USD break below 1.5450, next support will be 1.5330.
on 22-Dec-10, GBP/USD broke below 1.5450 and formed a new low 1.5354 without breaking 1.5330.

Expect this market to continue trading in small range bias up.  1st target 1.5530, 2nd target 1.5630 (going to take some time).

Resistance Ayumi looking for short: revised from 1.5680 to 1.5650, forecast: January 2011.

Related Post: GBP/USD on 21-Dec-2010

Greetings!

To all Readers

We have come to the end of the year and today is the last trading day of the week for US.

I thank all for sharing, and may all be Good, Healthy, Happy and Wealthy.  Special thanks to mentor JC who share the wisdom, knowledge and care.

Hope all enjoy your holiday, take a break, looking forward to another fruitful year 2011!

GBP/USD on 21-Dec-2010

Current support 1.5450 shall hold for a while.
Current resistance 1.5550, while I am expecting GBP/USD to 1.5680 for a low-risk short.
Coming week, while GBP/USD break below this support of 1.5450, I believe it will dive to next support @ 1.5330.

Good luck everyone and happy shopping for a meaningful Christmas celebration! :)

DJIA on 21-Dec-10

The high of 11518 will remain a significant resistance the range between 11450 - 11520 will remain the trading range for DJIA before any meaningful breakout is spotted.

However, I still hold the view that DJIA will break out from this small range, and if you observe intraday 60 minutes / 30 minutes chart, you will see a symmetrical triangle formation in which support our view.
Breaking above this channel DJIA will advance to 11600, breaking below will test 1st support at 11330.

Gold Futures and Silver Futures

Welcome CME products to Bursa Malaysia, we can trade Gold, Silver, Cotton, Coffee, DJIA, e-Mini Dow... :)

Gold Futures
Product Symbol: GC
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 100 troy ounces
Min Tick Size = 0.10 per troy ounce
Contract Value = $10 per contract

Example:
Gold Price @ 1,400 USD, Long
When Gold is trading at 1,400.10 USD = +$1.00
When Gold is trading at 1,401.00 USD = +$10.00

I have created a ticket for quick reference.

Silver Futures

Product Symbol: SI

Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 5,000 troy ounces

Min Tick Size EFP = 0.005 (0.5 cents) per troy ounce

Contract Value = $25 per contract

Example:

Silver Price @ 29.115 USD, Long (2911.3 cents)

When Silver is trading at 29.116 USD = +$5.00

When Silver is trading at 29.125 USD = +$50.00

Related: [CME Group] [Time Zone]

What is CT?
In most states in the USA and in most provinces in Canada, Daylight-Saving Time (DST) is observed. During DST CT (or CDT) is 5 hours behind Greenwich Mean Time (GMT-5).

After the Summer months Central Time is shifted back by 1 hour to US Central Standard Time (CST) or (GMT-6).

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

We have a short trading week, US, HK and Singapore market close in observance of Christmas Eve on Friday 24-Dec-2010.
We wish Chinese Happy Dong Zhi, wish all Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

DJIA on 20-Dec-2010

DJIA has been trading in small range compare to 2 weeks ago.
Day range reduced half from 150 points to 75 points.
DJIA has been marching up inch and inch and my view on this market is neutral.

Current resistance 11518, while I believe DJIA to continue to trade in small range, extend a little bit higher to break above this resistance and form new high possibly to 11570.
Current support 11450-11420.

Only initiate your trade at clear support / resistance.  Practice Fibo Range to short at 11525, or long at 11415 with minimum risk.

Nasdaq 100 on 20-Dec-2010

I am happy for the traders who secured a Long at 2200 this week, our SL is just right and Nasdaq 100 has also hit our target of 2220. Result in a Risk:Reward of 1:4.

Resistance 2: 2240
Resistance 1: 2225
Support 1: 2200
Support 2: 2185

I suspect Nasdaq to trade between 2190-2235 before Christmas.
Would suggest to stay at the sideline because current price of 2,218 is too high for a long position, and there's no reversal sign for a short.

However, if Nasdaq 100 break below 2200 and come down to 2185, the market may hold and rebound. This would be a good level to observe for opportunity to Long (but I don't think this will happen before Christmas..)

Merry Christmas to all and have fun with your Love One, Friends, and Family.

无敌

想，无敌，是寂寞的。
再想一想，无敌，也是不存在的。

所以，完美，是不存在的，
可以说，完美，也是一种不完美。
说是有有，却缺点点。

到底，是应该成为万绿丛中一点红，鹤立鸡群，还是百花争艳？
我必须，先从土堆里面，冒出芽来。

喜欢星期天，好好阅读，滋润身心。

----4:25pm:
已经很久没有喝星巴克了。。。喉咙一直没有好转的关系。半夜咳醒，抱着马桶呕吐，先是眼周微血管浮现，再来眼球微血管破裂。。看了两个医生，吃了三片燕窝。

今天，我终于解放我自己。
油条。
现在是，你，我从新加坡带回来的Dark Chocolate Mocha Frappuccino，我要喝你了。。

Demo Feedback

After 2 weeks on Demo, I find myself trading at my comfort level again.

And I come to realize, the following:
1. I thought my analysis turned bad, but it is not.  I am better.
It is because I have shifted my focus to money.
What I wanted from trading, is money only, and I am just too focus on that, and I become addicted to trading.
2. Habitual Losses?
it is because i tried too hard to find a trade everyday, however, this everyday trading, is not my style.
3. How Long?  How Often?
I know my trade, but I do not know my personal style... and in fact, I thought I know myself well, but I don't.
and it turns out to be better trade, better days, nowadays...
4. How many?
I thought I need more market and more work so that I can practice and become better.  I started with 3 major, then I fall into AUD, NZD, Crude, DJIA, Gold... I believe the professional traders would know the answer.
2 weeks after my Demo, I concentrate on my favorite market, I find less mess, less opinions, less contradiction.  More time for other activities.  More clarity.

No reversal, no trade, no support, no resistance, no trade.
No price action, no pattern, no trade.
No familiar market, no trade.
and.. generally I prefer to Short, than to Long.

Related: [Demo Begins], [The Process]

Gold on 20-12-2010

Gold Weekly Forecast - 20 Dec 2010

My view on Gold is bearish, next week, Gold can only go highest at 1385.
Gold will possibly extend its bearish trend until end of the week before showing consolidation.
Support at 1350 region, or if we take 1:1 correction from 1430, potential to hit 1346, if Gold break below this support, strong support at 1330.

So my trading plan for Gold next week, would to short Gold at 1385 resistance, 1392 SL, looking at TG 1350.

Workstation 2012

This is going to burn a hole...
I will setup a 3-screen desktop, thus for year 2011, I need to re-model my room and workstation so that a 3-screen can come in on my birthday 2012.  I only have around 14 months to prepare for it by the way....

For those who is also planning for your workstation, it is good to check this out: http://www.ergotron.com/tabid/305/language/en-US/default.aspx

I have got mine...

New Chair, New Table, M&E works... cable management, AVR, UPS... and work out to this. :)

Looking forward to 2011, completion of 1st year journey with PW Trading Concept, completion of 2nd Phase Demo, improve my trading setup and consistency.
Certification in May-2011.
Closing of 1st Case by March-2011.
Freedom 31st July-2011.

-Ayumi-

Doesn't Like to Be Told

We choose what we want....
While we are choosing the path, I often get confused when there's someone telling me to do this, or to choose that.

Is that because I simply do not like to be told what to do?
My decision, my life.  I know what I want, deep down.

and if, you just happen to tell me, before I hit the 'go', I am gonna think twice.
This type of comment from others, act like a pop-up, kind of a prompt, always delayed the process.  Why would you have the same opinion like I do?  Although I didn't say out loud... but somehow I would think: Why don't you just do it?  Who are you to tell me what to do?
Very bad Ayumi... arrogant... confident.

Cuz I always do better... I do it so much better nowadays.... and I read from "Project Runway" this morning on TV, "I am not sad (to be out), I have already given my best (I made it to the Top5).  We are just gonna begin over and over again."

Wierd-ooooo Ayumi....

Punk!

Related: [Project Runway]
Listening: David Guetta - One Love (Special Edition)

Fragrance

Ayumi went to gym and brought my own bath gel, the scent simply remind me of a wonderful experience and I'm immediately feeling great and relaxed.

What scent and which aroma would remind you of a wonderful experience?

Wonderful GBP/USD from 1.5880 to 1.5650. I believe A also made good trade on her EUR/GBP?

Wish all do great and be well.

GBP/USD on 15-Dec-2010 (Wed)

Looking forward to GBP/USD correct to 1st support 1.5630 (EMA200).

GBP/USD on 15-Dec-2010 (Wed)

While i recall the conversation with A, we both believe the bullishness of GBP/USD and I am looking at GBP/USD to go to at least 1.5880 before the correction.

Who knows after Monday long white candle, it break to as high as 1.5909, and started to form antenna in 30 minutes, and correction.

Happy...

See how the amazing fibonacci numbers play in this scene...

Related Post: Weekly Forecast on GBP/USD on 6-Dec-2010
Related Post: Weekly forecast on GBP/USD on 27-Nov-2010

What I like about this year...

We are just 2 weeks away before Santa rings the midnight bell...
and I skipped work today :)
I skipped work this weekend.

For those who regularly visits... I skipped the weekend forecast for FX. :) Ops!

I took the whole weekend to finally complete my project.
I have finally completed the 'abandoned' the top part of my dance costume.
And I can't believe that I can make it, and it just look beautiful~

I have also sewed the veil piece...
I have repaired my first jumper, the checkered print, black and white jumper that is broken over last public holiday..
Repaired 1 pants...
Yes, all done by 10 fingers, and I broke 2 needles, and almost the needles almost pierced into my fingers when they break!

I spend the whole weekend without spending more than 4 hours in front of the PC, but I have so much of fun, spent wonderful time with my family, and my best friend E and her lovely husband.

And... I spend a night reading...

So long... Ayumi didn't read.
And... I spend time meditating....
So long... stillness.
Clouded with too much of want, desire and hunger...

And Ayumi just throw away 2 bouquet of flowers this morning~ they are dried and died.
Let them be with the earth again~ :)

Ayumi lost 2 phones this year, and so Ayumi got a replacement phone last month~ Apple iPhone4.
Ayumi broken her Samsonite backpack in October, and Ayumi got a new one~

next... to my surprise, my neighbour repaired my broken Samsonite for me... and mama just got it washed, and now it smell and look like new~

Ayumi killed her desktop, and also broken a Western Digital external harddisk, and successfully transferred all data to her new Seagate FreeAgent Go 500 GB....

Ayumi learned Adobe Illustrator CS4, designed her namecard, designed a few leaflet...

Written 3 books of trading journal, removed Ayumi the Novice Trader Blog since 2008 and refreshed.

Ayumi participated in a public forum, focus on DJIA and Nasdaq 100 and learn with a team of experienced trader.

Been through some suffering and also showered with a lot of blessing~
Mentor, Sifu, E... and many many....

Family, Dance, Love, Trading, Money~
Thanks to all.

Gold on 13-12-2010 (Mon)

I suspect Gold to be trading in the range of 1370-1400 on Monday.
In case Gold has break below 1370, next support 1350.

While we can observe a pincer bottom at 1369, this shows a good support level for Long position.
Prefer to Long Gold at support level 1370, SL 1365, TG 1400.

For shorts, observe reversal, or a inverted "V" near resistance 1400-10 for a short entry.
In case Gold break above 1410, next resistance is the recent high @ 1430.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on 13-Dec-2010 (Monday)

We are only 2 weeks before we close the trading book of 2010, is the rally already reaching its climax?  DJIA has been trading in small range + diminished volume, the resistance is still well kept below 11451.
If DJIA manage to break above 11450 convincingly, it will travel north towards 11550 (15-Aug-2008 High).

If this market is well capped below 11451, and started to fall from 11410, we can see the first minor support at 11330, followed by 11200, strong support at 11000.

We suspect this small trading range to continue on Monday as Inflation data for November will dominate next week's economic calendar, with the U.S. Producer Price Index due on Tuesday and the U.S. Consumer Price Index set for Wednesday.

For shorties, plant your shorts near the resistance level but must put a stop loss to protect yourself in case DJIA break this resistance.
I have no recommendation for Long as the support level seems too far from the current price of 11410.
For myself I will prefer to plant my shorts at 11430, add another position when DJIA trade below 11330 and aim for 11200 as my target.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has been bullish with a good support at 2185 and now 2200.
Nasdaq has break above 2200 convincingly last Friday, mean Nasdaq 100 will go towards 2007 high 2239 again.

Aggressive trader can Long at 2200, SL -5 pts, with initial target 2220.
For shorties, be patient and wait for reversal sign on Daily Chart near its resistance level of 2220-40.


Visit APSRI Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/
Visit APSRI DJIA Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog, click here: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/

Transactions (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.5800
SL 1.5840 (moved to entry) trading at 1.5736 now
TG 1.5720 (+120 pips)

Note: Average Day Range ≈ 120 pips

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Suspect DJIA to test 11500 (recent top 5-Nov 11451)
and
Nasdaq 100 to test 2200 (recent top 9-Nov 2200)

Quick one, and a Good one:

I have a trader friend - PP, PP has made some profit from US stocks (I personally would like to say it is WONDERFUL profit), and PP thanks to QE2. :)


and this Handsome profit means 2x of the Annual Income of an ordinary Malaysian executive.
And PP made it in less than 2 months (do not wish to sound to exaggerative... but actually PP revealed that the whole trade is done in 2 weeks).


And PP still have some QQQQ contracts at US1250 (Gold at 1420 now).


Bravo~! ^__^

And trading means, you can work, 2 feet in front of your bed, 20 feet from the kitchen, next to your kid, watch CNBC news on TV - on the couch, and you life - focus on opportunities - with the exchange of security from a 9-6pm job.

Initial shadow entry

Hiya~ the start of my Demo account, today is day two, so far, the result as follow:

Monday:
Long GBP/USD
Long EUR/USD
triggered SL.
Damage: -80 pips

Tuesday:
Long EUR/USD - 1.3270 didn't get entry.
Long GBP/USD - 1.5690 didn't get entry.
Market moves in favour.
Damange: -

From backtest, this method works very well, generally human are focused on wining, but hate losing... most new traders would have said that this method don't work.... Wining and Losing is a package, Risk and Reward is a package.

Learn to accept total responsibilities of my own trading, learn the advantage, and the limitation of this setup, there's a lot of searching to be done.

and my objective is to find a system that suits me, and deliver consistent result.

Looking forward to consistency
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD

Long view, target to reach 1.5888.
Long
Entry: 1.5740
SL: 1.5700 (-40 pips)
TG: 1.5880 (140 pips)

Note: Average Day Range ≈ 120 pips


EUR/USD

Long view, target to reach 1.3625.
Long
Entry: 1.3370
SL: 1.3330 (-40 pips)
TG: 1.3625 (+255 pips)

Note: Average Day Range ≈ 160 pips

the Process

"I have tried my very best, but it just don't work out".
Don't be disappointed with the result, be happy for yourself for being your very best.
Focus on the Process, not the destination.
Bcz you gave it your BEST.

How you become successful if you didn't pursue excellence?

Caring for the process, the process, the process.

I have some disappointment over this trading week.
I did a few queue to long GBP/USD, at initial shadow, combined with the reversal pattern on Day Chart, signals the market turning up.. but I have missed it, Long the 1st day, the 2nd day..
I missed the entry, with only 4 pips, 5 pips...

I watch the market rebounded, and continue to escalate.

Day 2, I watch the market rebounded, turn up, and formed a reversal sign at top and come down, but i didn't removed my entry to Long and got killed with a loss of 50 pips.

I feel disappointed, for being unhappy bcz I didn't get an entry when I am right.
I feel disappointed, for not willing to remove my order when market signals the opposite and kill my trade.

I am disappointed with myself, bcz, I know what I see, but not trading the same.

And I start to see myself after some time to think about my trades...
I start to learn that I am too focused on the result, the money, making $$$, losing $$, to measure my success.

The process, the process, the process... is the only thing that I should monitor.
and I start to learn, the reason of my shrinking trading account size, is myself not doing the right thing.

How can a novice trader, with only 4 months Demo + 4 months Live swim in the high and low tide of the sea?

And I learn the questions mentor JC has asked:
1) Which trading setup brings the most consistent result?
2) Which trading setup you feel most comfortable with?

Ignorant.  Me.  Ah-you-Me (Ayumi).

I do not know the answers of the above.
Just like master Bryan said, "you have some work to do...."

Yes.

I agree, I am only going to trade on Demo, for the next 6 months.
There's something, more things that I am gonna fix.

Myself.

That I will be kind to myself, to allow myself to learn, to try to be my very best, to find out, which setup suits me, and to craft the setup, the set of rules, for myself, to myself.

I will focus on the Process, the process, not the result.

I will work at my best, I will find out the rules and find out the most consistent setup for myself.
I will put a lot of energy, effort, and I will care, for every bit of the trading decision.
Think twice, and observe myself, during the whole process.

Demo Begins.
5-December-2010
the Search, has just begun.
Answers to be revealed, no earlier than 4-June-2011..

Gold on 4-12-2010

Pressure of H/S has been successfully taken out as we seen last Friday long white candle on Gold daily chart.

2nd favorite pattern has developed, for short, patiently waiting for entry.

For Long, resistance 1,423 would be the 1st target,

enter at daily initial shadow of 1408, this is also the pincer top in 30 minutes chart.  Support at 1398.

judging by this risk : reward ratio of 3:2, aggressive trader can enter.. but I prefer not to trade.

Transactions (FX)

GBP/USD

Day Chart: Spotted Reversal
GBP trading at 1.5615 now.
Enter Long for today at 1.5580
SL 1.5540 (ytd Low)
Target 1.5800.

Remember my weekly forecast still favour to short this pair when it approaches 1.5880 region.

related: Weekly Forecast 29-Nov-2010 (FX)

US Stocks Slip As Euro-Zone Woes Continue To Weigh; DJIA Off 16

By Donna Kardos Yesalavich and Kristina Peterson

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as investors continued to worry about the European sovereign-debt crisis, but better-than-expected data on U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence helped limit the drop.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 16 points, or 0.2%, to 11036. Bank of America was the measure's worst performer, off 2%, while Procter & Gamble shed 1.5% and Cisco Systems dropped 1.2%.

Keeping the declines in check, Caterpillar climbed 1.2%, boosted by a better-than-expected reading on Chicago-area manufacturing. Wal-Mart Stores also rose, up 0.6%, and Walt Disney added 0.6%, after the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence topped estimates.

The blue-chip measure is on pace to end November in negative territory, down 0.9% on the month recently. That would mark its first down month since August.

The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.9% to 2502, hurt by a 4.4% drop in Google following reports that the online-search giant is offering to buy Groupon, a social-network site geared toward discount shoppers, in a deal worth $6 billion. Separately, the European Commission opened an antitrust investigation into allegations that Google has abused a dominant position in online search.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slipped 0.4% to 1183, with its technology sector leading to the downside while the materials and consumer-discretionary stocks rose. The S&P 500's month-to-date return wavered between positive and negative territory, putting the measure at risk of breaking a three-month winning streak.

Investors were encouraged by the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, which came in at 62.5 in November, better than the 60.0 reading economists were expecting. In addition, the Conference Board's November reading of consumer confidence came in at 54.1, better than the mean economists' forecast of 52.5.

"The indication here is you are seeing a recovery, but it is a sluggish one and it's really going to take a rally in employment in order for it to become more aggressive," said Edmund Hyland, managing director and a global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank's southeastern region.

Meanwhile, investors continue to fret that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis could widen to Portugal, Spain or Italy. The premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Spanish bonds over German bunds hit more than three full percentage points, the largest gap since the launch of the euro.

"The theme that really strikes me is this tug of war in the information we're receiving," said Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments. He noted that while the euro-zone debt crisis has produced "very headline-worthy negative news, [it] has kind of masked some untrivial improvement in some U.S. economic data."

Wood added that the euro-zone issues are "something the market is pricing in now and it is just going to have to get accustomed to dealing with some of these rolling solvency issues in Europe."

Global risk appetite was also undermined by talk of higher Chinese interest rates as well as disappointing Japanese jobless figures, encouraging investors back into safe havens, such as the dollar and Treasurys.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six others, rose 0.5%. The euro dipped below $1.30 to a two-month low earlier in the session, but was recently trading at $1.3009, down from $1.3123 late Monday in New York. Increased demand for Treasurys sent the yield on the 10-year note down to 2.80%.

Crude-oil prices slipped below $85 a barrel while gold futures were also lower.

Among stocks in focus, Seagate Technology dropped 3.1% after the maker of computer disk drives cut off talks with private-equity firms about taking it private because potential suitors didn't value the company highly enough.

Barnes & Noble fell 3.3%. The book retailer's fiscal second quarter loss narrowed, but it gave a muted outlook, projecting a wider-than-anticipated loss for the year and third-quarter earnings below analysts' expectations.

---By Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2188; donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com