DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 30-Sep-2013

Last trading day for September month.

Image source: http://money.cnn.com
Read their article on: Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling is like my credit card credit limit.
So now I am the biggest consumer and the biggest client for this merchant bank, I make purchases, I stimulate businesses, I ask for anything I want, I give them businesses...
When I can't pay, I ask the bank to increase my credit limit and enjoy the 'free credit' without thinking of the consequences, nor thinking about my capability to pay.

For the debt ceiling of USD$16.699 trillion.
How many times could I expect the 'bank' increases great America their credit limit?
Where actually the money go?
Number of job is increasing, average wage isn't rising, where has 85 billion gone, back to the banks?

Technical Forecast
DJIA

Market is bearish, it shows tiny little support last week and the resistance has shifted from 15550 pts down to 15350 pts.

15188 pts is within reach just early of next week.

I have not been trading real cash for sometime.
I have the urge to trade live already... so far this year the trades were good, till date 10% capital growth is manageable,
10% is not an encouraging number to a lot of traders out there - I still see 'schools' claiming 100%  (or more!) returns - I just don't know how they make it.
I am worried that I would end up losing my discipline again.

Nasdaq 100

Last week was a volatile week for Nasdaq 100
My forecast is totally wrong.

Trader Alex Siew (check my blogroll) said: if DJIA has been falling and Nasdaq 100 is been rising, must be "boh ho kang tau" (hokkien, implies something fishy is coming up).

Technically, Nasdaq 100 shall continue trading sideways in narrow range within 3205 - 3245 bias up (though I am strong bear for DJIA).
Current Support 3218 pts.

However, if DJIA and Nasdaq 100 is co-related, once DJIA plunge below 15150 pts, I expect Nasdaq 100 to follow suit, breaking below 3204 and then sink to 3180 pts.
Otherwise, breaking above 3245 pts, next target 3260 pts.

This seem contradicting and I hope market to teach me more of their co-relations between Nasdaq 100 and DJIA.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Winning the Olympics means a boost in Nikkei.
While I am driving to work, I receive a sms saying Nikkei jumps nearly 3% after robust data and winning Olympic bids, courtesy from CNBC RT mobile app.

Last Friday DJIA has a volatile trading day, disappointing NFP figures and market close positive for the week.

News & Analysis on NFP
Marc To Market [read]
Bloomberg [read]
Business Insider [read]

Well I think Bernanke and the company is decided to taper the stimulus.
Just a matter of when, this month, or next month.

But the technical chart suggest sideways going to continue.
I shall update with technical chart later today.
NetDania chart go crazy, will update tonight at 10pm (GMT+8).

Syrian War
Why Syrian War matters to Oil Market [read]
Strike on Syria? [read]

iPhone, Apple, What to expect this week on Stock Market
Week Ahead [read]

I discovered this cool page on world index [Index map]

Cheers
Ayumi

How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

Keynote Speech, Day 2

SaaS is gaining popularity here in Malaysia, when we talk about cloud, people start to understand us better, thanks to Apple Inc, I think they educate us with free cloud experience and his cool mobile gadget – iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, etc. (obviously, I am an apple fan).

I watched the live webcast of the keynote speech by NetSuite CTO last night.

NetSuite – World #1 Business Suite on Cloud, #1 Cloud ERP.

For the first time, in 10 months, I get to see Evan Goldberg in a live performance.  I get to see his face, listen to his voice, and I get to meet his wife, met CEO Zach Nelson.

We are one of the partner with NetSuite in Malaysia.  We are a special company, since our joint venture, we have SaaS, Infrastructure, Hardware, On-Premise solution, Data Center, and Software Development.

I am looking forward to the user experience overhaul in future releases.

I am looking forward to the mobile app ver 2 which will be released in months.

You are at the same time given more courage

I am going to attend the manager’s conference tomorrow and was reading about Gregory Burns this morning; he is one of the guest speakers of this event.

Things happened these few days – cd player doesn’t work, lost my phone, travelled in and out of the country, lack of sleep, market rebounded but I can’t join the trade although I believe 13300 is the critical support point for DJIA… couple of events has added emotional burden on me, I feel miserable.

I am not good at releasing my emotions onto people, I couldn’t express myself as I think it is unfair to the audience… best thing I could do to myself, is to lock myself in a dark room, recollect the miserable events, and sleep with it. When I have enough of all, I blog.

So, this blog post is a release of my emotions, so I could stand tall and walk again.

I read from Gregory Burns:

“Everyone is imperfect. You might be born into a disabled condition, but you are at the same time given more courage. We should look at what we own ant not things we lack.”

This line inspired me, counting the things I lack – is enough. I have been counting them since 12/10/2012... And I think it’s time to let go.

Goodbye to Woodwind, my iPhone4.

Wait for another chance, another week to trade the market.

From 13,300 pts. to 13,550 pts. is 250 pts., Dow30, I miss you once, but I know,
you go and you are bringing your friends and relatives, bring me multiple of 250 pts. of real profit.



Patience, Perseverance
Ayumi

Kind and Considerate

the vibes...

there are character you like, and some character you don't..
when it comes to those you are less favour of, would you reject?  Would you send the negative vibes?

I did, to the same bloody person who (have no choice) but come in right before 6pm and give me tasks to do.
Yeah, I send the negative vibes -- and I hope it doesn't bounce back to me.

Good read from Ralph Marston:

The Greatest Success link

You don’t have to be famous to be important. You don’t have to be a celebrity to be successful.

You don’t have to live in opulent luxury to be rich. You don’t have to be irresponsible to be free.

You don’t have to be outrageous to be creative. You don’t have to be abusive to be impressive.

You can be quietly humble and still be amazingly effective. You can be kind and considerate and still have great influence.

Just because people don’t fall at your feet and worship you, doesn’t mean you are a failure. Quiet success is just as sweet as loud, flamboyant success, and usually much more real.

Step by Step of Traders Life

I could not hold my smile while reading this article in the office.


I found this from Julia Clara blog:

http://fx-juliaclara.blogspot.com/p/step-by-step-of-traders-life_21.html


Do read!

Found a traders blog that I am gonna follow - Trading Arcade:

http://www.tradingarcade.com/

Sunday~

Another blessed Sunday :)
I am sitting right in front of my laptop since 12.. and I have done some reading, read the headlines of the week on global market, read a few article that grab my interest, then I got distracted a bit, I went to the store room to find what is available for my June holiday.

I check my cabin bag, my backpack, thinking of what should I bring when I visit to Taipei, Taiwan?

Since I am gonna stay in a 4 beds female dorm, on the 4th floor without lift (yeah it needs a bit of walking and/or climbing).. I think I should have bring some light luggage instead.

Take a look at the picture... My backpack is parked side by side to the approved cabin bag size... Since the backpack size look similar to a cabin bag, I think it should not be a problem if I bring them up to the aircraft...

Why would I need two bag instead of 1?  11 days of stay in Taipei, the shopping is going to add up to my return luggage ^__^ after food, and night markets.

the backpack looks cool isn't it.. monotone, with lots and lots of compartments.

and found this little angel someone brought for me from Taiwan two - three years back.  It is hiding in one of the side pocket ^__^


Sweet~~~

End of my side stories... Coming up, market forecast :)

Ayumi

It must not be a choice

Recently I have been overwhelmed with work. Moody.
The task is continuously testing my capabilities, I am challenged because I always think that I have limitation, and I always think that I am lack of resources.

Someone on my FB wall commented, suggest me … to go back to Trading.
Yes, I really hope so, to give up everything, just dance, and trading.

But I do NOT want things to happen this way…
Trading should not be a choice.
Dances should not be a choice.

I simply think that we cannot choose trading, or dancing, because I failed in some other areas.
I just do NOT want trading to be an option.

It is like… going back to your ex and tell them “the new relationship doesn’t work out”.
How does it sounds?

I bet it sounds like “Ewwwww…”annoying.

I am working so hard, to strike a balance between all the things I regard as important in my life… all these activities enriched my life, and I do not want them to become an option.
There are unlimited possibilities, and unlimited happiness if we are able to work out all these 3 things.

It satisfy me, my mother, and my bank account.

And I would like to encourage you to dedicate more, focus more, work hard towards getting what you want, and going full speed to achieving them. When you look back, there are only two things:
1. these are the experiences in life worth fighting for, or
2. they are plain rubbish…
but undoubtedly, you have given them the true meaning with all hard work.

What if it works?

We can choose, we can move forward

It has been a while I don’t read… and it has been a while since I last met mentor JC…
Work, commitment and new assignments have filled my calendar. I am constantly rushing… moving forward, I know, there shouldn’t be rush over everything, there could be something call: step by step…
There were something we need sit down, take time, embrace.. spend time.. and chill.

I read a beautiful article this beautiful morning… allow me to share a few line here with the readers.

Full article is here from The Daily Motivator – Ralph Marston

Lift the future
Just because you can become frustrated, doesn’t mean you must. Just because there are reasons to be angry or envious, resentful or disillusioned, doesn’t mean you have to choose any of those negative states.

Your choice of how to feel does not have to be dictated by the world around you. Instead, you can allow your feelings to come from the beauty that’s inside you.

Don’t base your feelings on the problems. Base them on the positive possibilities.

… Time moves forward, so look forward, and feel the limitless future as it arrives.

I have a choice,
Ayumi

Here is a video that explains the basics of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Here is a video that explains the basics of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

Received a newsletter from dunno where and dunno how they get my email address...
but this video is something new to me, so I thought of posting it here to share.

CFD no more, LCP

As you see, I have been trading on FXCM and today I log into IG markets and realised that CFD for commodities is no longer available here.

They introduced new product = LCP

“Leveraged Commodity Product” or “LCP” means an OTC commodity contract on a margin basis (other than a commodity futures contract) whereby a person undertakes, as determined by the terms and conditions of the contract, to pay an amount of money determined or to be determined by reference to the change in value of a commodity over a specified period of time;

The new contract size is now:
Gold
1. Standard Contract = 100 troy oz / margin requirement USD1700
2. SGD denominated contract = SGD$10 (SGD1 x min 10 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$170 (SGD17 x min 10 contracts)

Silver
1. Standard Contract = 5000 troy oz / margin requirement USD3000
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$300 (SGD60 x min 5 contracts)

Light Crude Oil (US)
1. Standard Contract = USD 10 per full point / margin requirement USD1500
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$750 (SGD150 x min 5 contracts)

Integrity

Beginning of a new day, I took some time to browse thru my favorite website – The Daily Motivator by Ralph Marston. Today’s article is good… let’s share a few lines.

You can read the complete version here: http://greatday.com/motivate/120204.html

The vision inside
Achievement flows from the inside out. To experience an exceptional life on the outside, you must nurture exceptionally positive values on the inside.
You cannot be angry, resentful, envious or cynical on the inside and expect to achieve anything of value. No matter where you might attempt to direct it, your negativity hurts you more than anyone else.

The great thing is, you can experience an outstanding life if you will constantly and persistently envision an outstanding life. That positive vision will itself drive your actions to ensure its own fulfillment.

...

Being a trader, we need to make decisions, long or short, now or later, and often when market is volatile and moving, we need to decide on the dot.

We are not able to guarantee the result or outcome of our trading decision, like what Dr Van Tharp says, we don’t trade the market, we trade our beliefs.

Take full responsibilities of our own action, take the losses when it has reached our stop loss, be it a mental stop loss or pre-set value; when it has reached our profit, adjust it to higher profit target, or just take the profit, and be happy of the money made today.

It will be another day.

Change

I have opened a blog post from T.Harv Eker for weeks, the Google Chrome tab is always there and I didn’t read it until this morning… I guess there is some important message needed to be delivered to me, and yes, it arrives at the RIGHT time.

Embrance change.

Accept changes.

Live Happily.

-------

Source: New Year, New Changes: Will You Go With The Flow or Fight It?

Happy New Year! I am excited to share with you exciting, new journeys and experiences as 2012 reveals itself to all of us.

With each new year comes changes big and small . . . whether we like it or not! And because change is inevitable, and because we have just entered a new year, I wanted to touch on this subject just a little deeper.

Sometimes we love change, like a new job, a new relationship, or moving to a new city. Sometimes we hate change, especially when it’s not our choice or out of our control. In that case, we’d rather stick with what we know, even though it may no longer apply to our reality.

Either way, change is not always easy, is it? Why is change difficult for most of us? Because change means that we are forced out of our comfort zones, which is why it can be so difficult to embrace.

Here’s a clue: if what you’ve been looking for was where you’ve been looking, you’d have already found it! (Read that sentence one more time, it’s a good one.) Doing more of the same harder and longer is usually not the answer. Willingness to change usually creates better results.

It’s true—in many ways, reality is what we make it. Regardless if change is chosen or forced, one of the first steps to change is changing how you think. What you focus on expands because not only are you thinking it, but then you’re feeling and doing, even if you’re not always aware of it.

In other words, if you think change is going to suck, you’ll feel that, you’ll end up acting like it, then that change will end up exactly as you thought. But if you think, “Something good can actually come out of this,” you’re inviting more favorable results. Adapting to change then becomes easier and less stressful because you’re not focusing on the discomfort of the unpredictable.

This year, when change comes your way (because it will no matter what), treat change as a gift, even when it comes unexpectedly.

To Read the full article by T. Harv Eker, go to this link:

New Year, New Changes: Will You Go With The Flow or Fight It?

Impatience, Patience

How to deal with impatience?
http://lifelearningtoday.com/2007/08/17/impatience-release-your-grip/
Good article share by G.

It is another good Saturday, I am at the office enjoying high speed internet, while patiently (^.^) waiting for all marketing team members to arrive, and today we are going through the Hospital Management Solutions.

So many industrial jargon... and Google is my best friend.
Hope I pass... :)

Recovery

Monetary policy is working?
Near to Zero Interest Rate (since December 2008), Quantitative Easing, Purchasing of Long Term US Treasury Bonds, Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (from 2008-2010), Operation Twist, Printing Money...

Read more from Wall Street Journal

2012 started with a boost!
For the first trading week in 2012, US major index:
Dow Jones risen 1.2%, Nasdaq Composite +2.7%, S&P 500 Index +1.6%.

Read more from Bloomberg

On the economic data front:
In the month of December 2011, US Created 200,000 Non-Farm Payroll, better than market forecast 152,000, a whopping increment from previous month (November 2011) 100,000 (revised from 120,000).

Jobless rate falls to 8.5%, better than market forecast 8.7%, compare to last month 8.7% (revised from 8.6%), lowest since March 2009 (check it out).

China set to be top economy by 2030

I was reading some news and today’s headline…
China set to be top economy by 2030…
The World Bank said China will maintain a GDP growth rate of about 8 percent in the coming 20 years.
Link: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-03/24/content_12220043.htm
In 2030, income per capita will be two fold, to reach USD16,000.

Which is equivalent to RM48,000
*based on USD: MYR = 1:3.
I was curious, what is Malaysia’s income per capita?

I Google and found the following:
Malaysian’s PPP is ranked 57-58 which is almost USD14,500.
Singaporean’s PPP is ranked 3-4 which is almost USD57,500.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Disclaimer: This blog cannot guarantee the accuracy of external data~ the blog shall not entice any investment decision, trade responsibly.

Money Management

I was reading the money management by Brent Penfold; it’s from the book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading”.

Shy… cuz I have been reading this book from early of the year, initially I was reading fast… but this chapter stopped me from moving forward. To me it is very academic and it involves many many mathematic calculations, some strange terms... standard deviation, drawdown, catastrophic losses, value payoff…

I will only bring the book out with me whenever I go to the hair saloon, and friends… who goes to the saloon every day? I go there may be once every three months = (

This chapter although is tough for me, yeah, I always thought money management is tough, although I know how to calculate my risk, risk 50 pips, risk 2% of my capital… it is a very very straightforward thing, but I always telling myself, Money Management is not as simple as that… to be honest, I think I am constantly sending the wrong message to my mind.

Finally, I have chosen William Fixed-Risk Money Management, yet arrive higher profits, but with higher volatility too… whatever. Key: Trade more contracts when you are making profits, and trade less when you are losing. Van Tharp share the same thought. Super Trader is another great book that keeps me on track.

However, in turns, by completing this chapter, it gave me insight.

Compare to my past trading experience in Stocks, when I start trading FX, I abandon what I have learned in the past, and re-learn this new market. No matter what market it is, survival is always the main topic. How do we protect our capital and survive in the market is a very important practice, it requires discipline, patience, and courage.

I love my new hair color, and my short fringe.
Ayumi

You may want to read this:

Quote of the Day~

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

Warren Buffett

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/warren_buffett_2.html

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.

Another good link: http://warren-buffett-words-of-wisdom.com/

Live the vision

Release your limitless imagination from the confines of your limited ego. And allow the achievement of whatever you envision.

It is your ego that creates doubt. It is your ego that manufactures excuses.

Your ego holds your imagination back, and prevents you from achieving the fulfillment you truly desire. Yet you can choose, with love and positive intention, to let go of that confining, limiting ego.

Stop weighing yourself down with judgments about what you think you need. You have a whole beautiful, limitless imagination with which you can envision and fulfill what you truly desire.

Who you really are is infinitely more valuable than anyone you could ever pretend to be. Allow authenticity to direct and inform your words, your actions, your priorities and your goals.

Go ahead and visualize in rich detail the most beautiful, magnificent life you can imagine. Then stand up, step forward, and begin to truly live that vision.

Source: Ralph Marston, Great Day

Read more: http://greatday.com/motivate/110813.html#ixzz1V002f2B1

Yes, when I need to move forward, it is excuses that I created for myself, I would just say, I am not confident enough, my English is no good, I am afraid, I am not a champion… I have a job… and I just realised that... yeah, maybe it is my ego, so what?? Who cares??

I am not good?
I am a lot better than I was before!

We can either Work Harder for Higher Expectation,
Or
Live with it, accept who we are now, and stop expecting a difference without Change.  Yeah, I recall the definition of Insanity:

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.