Showing posts with label WTI Crude. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WTI Crude. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Quiet Day.... CL

It is a quiet trading day yesterday.

Lets see some chart...

Added CL into my trading watch list,
27th June, CL hit low 89.61 and well supported at 200 days moving average, after 2 days of rebound, hitting 95.84 high on 30th June, it is currently resisted at 95.50-95.80 it has been doing 3 days of consolidation, currently trading at 94.95.


To fulfil my wave reading, CL need to at least rebound 50% to 96.03, but with current bearish sentiment (lower high, lower low on 1 hour chart), we may only see a 1/3 retracement, then CL continue to trade down.  Although I favour to short this market, I reckon 2 secarios:

1. False break to 96.03, form divergence in small time frame (30 mins), form reversal candlestick and down.
2. Resisted at 95.50-95.80 region, waiting for fundamental news trigger sell down to break 93.80-93.40, and going to support 92.40.  While I prefer this to happen...

Intraday trade:
Short at initial shadow (50 cents) 94.95 + 0.50 = 95.45
SL 95.85
TG 93.85

Friday, May 6, 2011

News Release and Watch the market tonight

Commodities news flying, Announcement on Jobs, NFP tonight.
Beware of the crazy swings, stay out or trade near major support / resistance only.




Jim Rogers: Oil Price Will Keep Rising; Silver to Fall

Read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42909575/

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

US Stocks Slip As Euro-Zone Woes Continue To Weigh; DJIA Off 16

By Donna Kardos Yesalavich and Kristina Peterson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as investors continued to worry about the European sovereign-debt crisis, but better-than-expected data on U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence helped limit the drop.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 16 points, or 0.2%, to 11036. Bank of America was the measure's worst performer, off 2%, while Procter & Gamble shed 1.5% and Cisco Systems dropped 1.2%.

Keeping the declines in check, Caterpillar climbed 1.2%, boosted by a better-than-expected reading on Chicago-area manufacturing. Wal-Mart Stores also rose, up 0.6%, and Walt Disney added 0.6%, after the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence topped estimates.

The blue-chip measure is on pace to end November in negative territory, down 0.9% on the month recently. That would mark its first down month since August.

The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.9% to 2502, hurt by a 4.4% drop in Google following reports that the online-search giant is offering to buy Groupon, a social-network site geared toward discount shoppers, in a deal worth $6 billion. Separately, the European Commission opened an antitrust investigation into allegations that Google has abused a dominant position in online search.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slipped 0.4% to 1183, with its technology sector leading to the downside while the materials and consumer-discretionary stocks rose. The S&P 500's month-to-date return wavered between positive and negative territory, putting the measure at risk of breaking a three-month winning streak.

Investors were encouraged by the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, which came in at 62.5 in November, better than the 60.0 reading economists were expecting. In addition, the Conference Board's November reading of consumer confidence came in at 54.1, better than the mean economists' forecast of 52.5.

"The indication here is you are seeing a recovery, but it is a sluggish one and it's really going to take a rally in employment in order for it to become more aggressive," said Edmund Hyland, managing director and a global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank's southeastern region.

Meanwhile, investors continue to fret that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis could widen to Portugal, Spain or Italy. The premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Spanish bonds over German bunds hit more than three full percentage points, the largest gap since the launch of the euro.

"The theme that really strikes me is this tug of war in the information we're receiving," said Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments. He noted that while the euro-zone debt crisis has produced "very headline-worthy negative news, [it] has kind of masked some untrivial improvement in some U.S. economic data."

Wood added that the euro-zone issues are "something the market is pricing in now and it is just going to have to get accustomed to dealing with some of these rolling solvency issues in Europe."

Global risk appetite was also undermined by talk of higher Chinese interest rates as well as disappointing Japanese jobless figures, encouraging investors back into safe havens, such as the dollar and Treasurys.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six others, rose 0.5%. The euro dipped below $1.30 to a two-month low earlier in the session, but was recently trading at $1.3009, down from $1.3123 late Monday in New York. Increased demand for Treasurys sent the yield on the 10-year note down to 2.80%.

Crude-oil prices slipped below $85 a barrel while gold futures were also lower.

Among stocks in focus, Seagate Technology dropped 3.1% after the maker of computer disk drives cut off talks with private-equity firms about taking it private because potential suitors didn't value the company highly enough.

Barnes & Noble fell 3.3%. The book retailer's fiscal second quarter loss narrowed, but it gave a muted outlook, projecting a wider-than-anticipated loss for the year and third-quarter earnings below analysts' expectations.

---By Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2188; donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com

Thursday, November 4, 2010

US Summary, DJIA at 2-Yr High Close

USD fall vs rivals after Fed announces fresh round of asset purchases to kickstart economy. USD dropped sharply in extremely volatile trading in initial reaction but soon recovered most of the loss. Investors expected roughly $500 billion in Treasury purchases over 5-6 months, notes Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at Wells Fargo in New York, but Fed announced $600 billion package over 8 months. Late Wednesday, EUR/USD was at 1.4122, vs 1.4034 late Tuesday, USD/JPY 81.13 vs 80.64, EUR/JPY 114.59 vs 113.19, GBP/CHF $1.6095 vs $1.6028, USD/CHF 0.9707 vs 0.9795. U.S. Dollar Index was 76.396 vs 76.731.

DJIA made 2-year closing high after violent bouncing following congressional election, QE2.

BlackRock down 4.3%, after Bank of America said offering at least 34.5 million shares it holds in it, while fellow part-owner PNC Financial Services selling up to 7.5 million shares. PNC +2.2%, BoA +1.1%. KKR +0.4% even as 3Q earnings dropped 61% after its private-equity portfolio appreciated less than in year-earlier. Dow +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Philly Semicons +1.0%. 30-year Treasury bond tumbled, erasing earlier gains, as it wasn''t favored in U.S. Fed''s debt buying program, while 10-year also reversed gains.

Oil prices hit fresh 6-month high as Fed''s widely anticipated QE followed bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. fuel inventories;
December Nymex settled up 0.9% at $84.69/bbl. Gold prices whipsawed in after-market trade as investors were skittish after FOMC announcement.
However, December Comex gold closed down 1.4% at $1337.60/oz. (lucy.craymer@dowjones.com)

US Stocks End Volatile Session Higher; DJIA At 2-Yr High Close;

By JONATHAN CHENG

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lurched to a two-year closing high, bouncing around violently after the congressional election and after the Federal Reserve said it would buy $600 billion to prime the domestic economy.

The Dow gained 26.41 points, or 0.24%, to finish at 11215.13 after a volatile afternoon, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 4.39 points, or 0.37%, to close at 1197.96 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 6.75 points, or 0.27%, to 2540.27.

The 10-year Treasury note sank, pushing the yield up to 2.625%. Gold and copper also fell as the Fed said it would maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings, and purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011 at a pace of about $75 billion a month.

The Fed said it would also "regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program" as economic data flow in.

Expectations of Fed easing had helped fuel a two-month surge on the stock market that has added 12% to the Dow.

The Fed move was generally in line with market estimates, putting to rest the idea that the central bank would proceed on a more cautious step-by-step basis from the get-go.

Anthony Chan, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Private Wealth Management, said that tepid approach was now "off the table." Chan said the Fed's approach would help with "taking the uncertainty out of the air."

Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services, said the Fed delivered "the bare minimum" of what the market would accept, but warned that there was a gloomy message in the size of its package. "Things must be pretty bad out there for the Fed to be this worried," he said.

Dan Cook, chief executive of IG Markets-U.S. in Chicago, said the move was "right in line" with market expectations, leading to some of the initial market confusion. "I had expected more of a pop, but it was just so close to what was expected," he said. "This might be a thing where we have a battle that goes on for a bit before they pick a direction."

Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman, said the Fed's push to further ease monetary conditions would likely maintain downward pressure on the dollar. "I think it's actually an explicit desire of the Fed--it makes our export markets more attractive, and it makes imports more expensive, which helps to import inflation, and the Fed has said very clearly they would like to see some inflation," Clemons said.

The market moves came on a day when the economy showed tepid signs of improvement. Private-sector employment grew by 43,000 in October, topping consensus estimates of a 22,000-job gain. U.S. factory orders rose by a higher-than-expected 2.1% in September, the third consecutive month of growth for one of the economy's key drivers. Meanwhile, a measure of non-manufacturing activity came in at 54.3 for October, higher than September's 53.2 reading and better than consensus expectations of 53.5.

After the Fed's intervention, "I think if the data continues to be marginally positive, which it's been over the last couple weeks, there could be some fuel to the fire" to keep the rally in stocks going, said Frank Longman, market technician at Brean Murray, Carret & Co.

Companies in focus include BlackRock, which tumbled 4.3% after Bank of America said it is offering at least 34.5 million shares it holds in the money manager, while fellow part-owner PNC Financial Services Group is selling up to 7.5 million shares. Bank of America may also sell another 6.3 million shares in the overallotment option. PNC gained 2.2%, while Bank of America added 1.1%.

KKR gained 0.4% even as third-quarter earnings dropped 61% after its private-equity portfolio appreciated less than in the year-earlier period, thus hurting its revenue.

Some auto makers fared well after reporting significant jumps in new-vehicle sales amid stronger buying by American consumers. Ford Motor gained 5.2% after reporting a sales increase of 19% in October from the year before. Honda Motor gained 0.4% after reporting gains of 16%.

Garmin slumped 5.3% after a 30% increase in earnings at the maker of digital navigation devices missed analysts' expectations and came amid weaker sales and margins.

PulteGroup lost 7.7% after the Michigan home developer's third-quarter loss widened to nearly $1 billion. Pulte said orders dropped 12% from a year earlier and 15% from the second quarter.

Hartford Financial Services Group jumped 9.2% after the insurer beat third-quarter earnings expectations and raised its 2010 profit estimate.

MGM Resorts International surged 10% as the company's third-quarter loss narrowed amid sharply lower write-downs related to its struggling Las Vegas City Center complex.

Time Warner shed 1.1% after its earnings fell 21%, as the media giant took a hit related to debt redemptions, though adjusted earnings and revenue rose. AOL, which was spun off from the media giant last year, rose 3.2% after asset sales helped the Internet company boost profits.

Aetna gained 2.9% after earnings rose 53% as investment gains and lower medical costs offset continued declines in employer-based membership. Wellpoint, however, dropped 0.5% after third-quarter profit rose 1.2% following prior-year write-downs as claims costs rose, contrasting with a trend seen in much of the health-insurance industry this year.

U.S.-traded shares of French bank Societe Generale gained 3.7% after the lender said its third-quarter net profit doubled due to lower bad-loan provisions and growth in international retail banking.

Stocks in Europe stuck largely to the sidelines ahead of the Fed decision, with the Stoxx 600 index finishing down 0.4%. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index broke above 24000 to trade at its highest level since mid-2008, led by banks.

Gold tumbled to below $1340 an ounce, while oil jumped to its highest settle in six months.

(Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Steve Russolillo and Kristina Peterson contributed to this article.)
--By Jonathan Cheng, The Wall Street Journal; Jonathan.Cheng@wsj.com

Thursday, October 28, 2010

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I am checking my open position last night on DJIA.
Long DJIA 11048 activated, and in floating profit of +7 points, however, after 30 minutes, it became -20 points.
Since I have already decided the trading plan, be it triggered stop loss or close position this morning with whatever profit or loss.

This morning looking at my Long, profit +70 points, and I closed the position.  Follow the plan, and believe this is the best trading plan I can do for this week.

And once again, DJIA has proven its BIG Swing for 3rd consecutive days in this week.


US Stocks Pare Losses; DJIA, S&P 500 Lower As Energy Sector Drags
By Jonathan Cheng

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks pared their losses to close near the day's highs, as investors grappled with shifting expectations for a major bout of easing by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 43.18 points, or 0.4%, to 11126.28 while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index lost 3.19 points, or 0.3%, to 1182.45. The Nasdaq Composite added 5.97 points, or 0.24%, to finish at 2503.26. Stocks retraced most of their earlier declines, when the Dow was down by nearly 150 points in intraday trading.

Energy stocks were among the biggest drags on the stock market, after weekly oil-inventory numbers showed U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rising by five million barrels. Exxon Mobil dropped 1.3% and Chevron fell 1% as crude-oil prices fell.

ConocoPhillips fell 1.2%, despite posting third-quarter earnings that more than doubled, buoyed by higher commodities prices and improved refining margins.

Oil prices also were hurt by the rising dollar, which hit commodity prices across the board. Gold fell to just over $1,320 an ounce, while copper tumbled 2.3%. That sent down materials and industrials stocks, the two worst-performing sectors of the day.

Merck dropped 1.7% to lead the decliners on the Dow, while Alcoa shed 1.3%. Bank of America gained 2.1% to lead the Dow industrials as well as a broader recovery in financial stocks after concerns earlier this month about mortgage foreclosures.

The declines came as investors tamped down expectations for a "shock-and-awe" approach by the Fed to help the economy, a strategy the central bank had turned to during the financial crisis, in favor of an approach that allows them to adjust policy over time as the recovery unfolds.

Expectations are now increasing for the Fed to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases of a few hundred billion dollars over several months, an approach in contrast to the central bank's purchases of nearly $2 trillion of bonds during the financial crisis.

"The Fed was out there sending out a message," said Jay Suskind, senior vice president at Duncan-Williams. "It was a cue for the market that maybe from a commodity and dollar destruction standpoint, those trends went too far." Suskind said the sell-off was a natural one that came with "no panic," as investors came to a consensus that expectations for the Fed, as well as Tuesday's congressional elections and the generally strong earnings season, have been more or less priced into the market.

The Fed's apparent attempt to back away from "shock and awe" helped the dollar bounce back against most of its major rivals. The Australian dollar tumbled 1.5% against the greenback, while the dollar rose to 81.69 yen, from 81.50 yen late Tuesday in New York, and the euro fell to $1.3767, from $1.3852.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell, pushing the yield to its highest point in over a month, at 2.712%.

The concerns over the Fed came amid modestly positive data on durable-goods orders and the housing market.

U.S. manufactured durable-goods orders posted their biggest rise since January after a spike in orders for civilian aircraft and aircraft parts, an often volatile category. Overall, durable-goods orders rose 3.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted $199.16 billion, more than the expected 2.5% rise.

Meanwhile, new-home sales in September continued their rise from a rock-bottom level, increasing 6.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, more than consensus estimates of a 4.2% increase.

"The durable-goods number, if you strip out aircrafts, wasn't a great number," said Michael Shea, managing partner of Direct Access Partners, who added that the home data reflected a weak housing environment.

Shea said the bounce back in financial stocks came as investors moved to put questions about mortgage foreclosures in the past. "A lot of rational people were coming out, saying let's not throw the baby out with the bath water," he said. "It's not as dire for the share prices as we would have thought, and we're finally getting that."

Among companies reporting earnings, Whirlpool fell 4.1% after the appliance maker's profit fell 9.2%, though sales in Latin America and Asia showed strength.

Sprint Nextel slumped 9.9% after the telecommunications giant said its loss widened, although the company reported its biggest net subscriber gain since 2006.

Comcast gained 3.2% despite a decline in profits at the cable provider, which suffered from a summer slowdown in subscriber growth and costs related to its deal for NBC Universal weighed on its performance.

American depositary receipts of U.K. drug company GlaxoSmithKline fell 0.8% after it agreed to pay $750 million and plead guilty to a criminal charge to settle a U.S. government investigation of manufacturing deficiencies at its former plant in Puerto Rico.

Ford Motor, which posted a 70% jump in third-quarter profit Tuesday, fell 0.9%.

Procter & Gamble edged up 0.4% after the consumer-products company posted strong volume gains, though quarterly earnings fell 6.8%.

American depositary receipts of German software maker SAP dropped 5.2% after quarterly results fell short of expectations, and the business-software company was hit by legal provisions in connection with a $2 billion lawsuit brought against it by rival Oracle.
Source: Dow Jones Newswire http://www.djnewsplus.com/article/0,,SB128817530572748371,00.html?mod=article-outset-box

My Trading Plan for today:
DJIA Long
Entry 11051 SL 11007 TG 11200

DJIA Short
Entry 11245 SL 11289 TG 11051

Related: My Weekly Forecast on DJIA for 25 Oct 2010

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

FX Market Rally Halted

If you follow EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD... rally seems halted...
it is good because we need to take a break, market need to take a breather, awaiting for a breakout.  Since I have the privilege of time, that I can watch the market today, I choose to enter the market during my visualization hour.

Today, my visualization hour will be:
1pm
4pm
8pm: Release of ADP National Employment Report at 8.15pm (GMT+8) is expected to show private payrolls rose 20,000 in September. Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 10,000 in August, less than the 17,000 economists were expecting. The ADP report — which is released today before of the big Friday BLS jobs report — is closely watched by the markets.
9.30pm: US market open
10.30pm: Crude Oil Inventories at 10.30pm (GMT+8) Energy Information Agency releases its weekly updates on oil stockpiles. Last week’s report showed that oil inventories dropped by 500,000, slightly more than analysts had anticipated. With crude up 6% so far this month, traders will be watching this gauge of demand.

Tonight I would skip my Zumba class for ADP Non-Farm Employment Chagne report.  I will practice my techniques at home, 3 techniques, 50 times each.
In the afternoon will be revision to the Professional Trade Master Module and back-testing on Equities, Futures market using the Volume change + Japanese Candlestick Reversal method. 3 markets, 3 products, 3 case studies.

Hopefully can steal some time to read the Universal Principles of Successful Trading too!

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Gold investment

It was on Tuesday that I attend Sifu's Gold Talk.
Until now only I can see it on the chart myself... Phew!

True true masters, I have a lot of work to do...

Even though Gold has been bullish for past week, it has been going up up.
Finally! I saw how we can mark the PowerWave into Gold Chart. hehheee....

Salute! to our forum masters
Link to APSRI Gold & WTI Crude Daily Report: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=4
Link to APSRI Gold & WTI Crude Weekly Report: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=2
Also, please follow Sifu's Daily Update on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ApsriTraders

From 4 Hour chart we can see some support resistance here.
Resistance:
R3: 1243
R2: 1228
R1: 1210 (hit and closed below)

Support:
S1: 1190
S2: 1175
S3: 1160

How is this information gonna be useful to you? ^__^
Please follow our daily update on Facebook and APSRI forum for further details.