Wednesday, August 31, 2011

DJIA on 31-Aug-2011 (Wed)

Up up market going towards 11680 now.

lets look at YM and DJIA30 chart...

YM Daily Chart:

YM 4 Hour Chart:

DJIA30 Daily Chart:

YM has touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, expect the market to do a little congestion, while DJIA shall hit 11680 tonight, crossing above 11680, DJIA may test my target 11800-850 soon.

Long Long, capture the last bullish breath before the bear comes in.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


From Daily Chart, bias up toward 1.6700 and target price 1.6800.
From Intraday Chart - 4 Hour: Neutral view.

If EMA50 (4H) rejection happens, then GBP/USD might go down to 1.6200 strong support.
Otherwise, ema50 turn support and going back to 1.6500 levels.

Long or Short at strong support & resistance levels respectively.


Weekly candle: bullish.
Last Friday, EUR/USD has recovered strongly and close at 1.4499. Daily chart shows that 1.4500 is a tough resistance but can be taken out anytime soon within this week.

Next strong resistance / target for EUR/USD 1.4700.
Support 1.4420
Strong support 1.4325 (prev week low, pincer bottom)

If our assumption is right, then to enter long at 1.4420 = EMA50 (4H)
Otherwise, the recovery above 1.4500 failed, and EUR/USD may continue to trade down to next Strong support 1.4325.

Monday, August 29, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hurricane Irene battered New York with heavy winds and driving rain on Sunday, knocking out power for some and flooding some of lower Manhattan's deserted streets, including in the Wall Street district.

The NYSE and broader U.S. marketplace are mostly automated, running quietly out of powerful data centers in New Jersey and elsewhere. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a few blocks from the NYSE, also plans at this time to open on Monday. Electronic trading is expected to function normally on Monday. But without full staffing, volume will take a hit.


DJIA recovered on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ensured more tools to stimulate economy, Wall Street has the first rising week after 4 weeks of losses.

From the technical chart, DJIA has traded to EMA50 line at the 4 Hour chart, our view is neutral.

DJIA may have seen the 1/3 retracement and need to consolidate between the flag 11550 – 10600.
I forecast DJIA to trade in range this week between 11550 – 10950 (600 points) bias up.

For those who have been following our thread, we are looking for a potential trapezium to form which might happen in September. I prefer DJIA to protrude above 11550 and recovered to 11800 = EMA200 lines in Daily Chart = 50% Fibonacci Retracement, had a big hit, and resume the grand cycle. Beware that the development shall be in line with the US monetary policy, and be patient.

Therefore, for the week’s trade plan, aggressive trader can pick long at support 10950 level. Intraday Short: aim to short if EMA50 (4H) shows rejection.

Strong Resistance 11800
Resistance 11550
Support 10950
Strong Support 10600


Forecast market to trade in consolidation between 2220 – 2085, bias up. Nasdaq 100 may have a quiet trading week, if EMA50 (4H) shows rejection, short and exit at support 2085. However, for the week, aim for long opportunity near support 2085 level and target exit 2215.

We forecast Nasdaq 100 to go strong until 2320 level slowly, steadily in 2 weeks’ time.

Strong Resistance 2320
Resistance 2220
Support 2085
Strong Support 2035

Sunday, August 28, 2011


At my "About" page...
I blog about life purpose, objectives, passion and dreams.
I blog about success and perseverance.
Although this post is not about trading... but I really need a place to express myself, my passion, and dreams.

I went to a church event this morning, alright, I am not a religious person, not a Christian, so it is the first time I stepped into a church.

It took 10 years for this church to grow, from a cell of 30 people, to a very big hall now... with the contribution from the church member...

And the pastor mentioned something about Stretch. This is the great lesson that I have learned today.

I learn to Stretch.

I went to a competition yesterday, with more than 80 contestants, to compete 1st round, quarter final, then semifinal, and night event - Final.

I am out from first round, I am disappointed, and I did not know why I lose... deep in my heart I always feel that I am a champion... I dance like I am going to be chosen... so I still do not know why I lose, and I lose to some gals with so little technique... with a body figure so out... sorry to be blunt but this is what I feel!

And today I didn't look into the PC, I went to shopping complex, and there's a stage, and people are performing.

I watched for few minutes, and I feel like walking away.

But J said something that made me feel interested.
"They should have more activities like such, to bring belly dancing closer to the public."

Don't care they are dancing like the Belly Dance Super Star, or they dance normal, but, they have a type of energy, charisma, to pull the crowd.
They crowd do not know what is the Belly Dance technique about!!!!

May be we always focus on the wrong thing...
Why we need the best costume? We need to be seen.
It is like we need a computer, an internet connection, a server, a news feed that's good, reliable and timely, these are the basic tools.
These are all EXPENSES.
It doesn't guarantee profit.

Why technique?
This is what we need, to dance.
Why technical analysis, this is how we learn... this is how we read the market.

Why expression? Why smile? Why the inner feeling?
This is the way we express ourselves, this is natural, a natural dancer, shall have the energy flow, from inside out.
It is like Trading Psychology. Our habit, we control our losses, we monitor our greed and fear, and we are cool, and we are steady.

Why showmanship?
Why choreography?
We planned for the flow and movement of the whole song. We present it in such a way that the audience can understand us, we dance, to express our feeling, we dance in line with the melody, our blood is also dancing, but we need to plan them out, when is the prelude, when to travel fast, when to stand still, and when to leap high, and plan the CHORUS!

It sounds like a trading plan, when to enter, when to observe, and when to act aggressively!
Without a plan, failed to plan = plan to fail.

So to ensure success, we cannot only focus ONE thing... but, continue to bring ourselves to higher standard, from all aspects.

Today my great lesson from the competition, from the stage performance, from the church event, from J's comment, what I learned from trading, what I learned from dancing, and the Pastor's story "Stretch".

I learn to Stretch!
Stretch and be a better me. Although i do not know why i didn’t make it... But I know I still have space to improve.
Not enough space?  Create one!

I'll come again tomorrow, smile bigger, stretch further!

I will continue to work harder; I will achieve all wealth and success in my life.
I want to be a successful and profitable trader, at my Maximum Capacity.
I aim to spend time with family, friends, and Dance!
I will improve my setups consistency and profit unlimitedly from the market.
I hope all like what I share, I hope all Benefit from my Success!

Dance Paw

Thursday, August 25, 2011

DJIA on 25-Aug-11 (Thu)

Lets go higher...
Market expecting some good news from Mr. Ben?

We mentioned from our weekly forecast that DJIA may possibly bounce up from the low and moving towards:
Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530
Current support: 10600
I am expecting a Trapezium to form, hopefully DJIA can rally up above 11530 and ultimately 11800 to form the marginal top before everything collapse again.

My trade plan today:

Long Wall Street CFD @ 11177 SL 50 pts, TG 250 pts.

Related Post: Weekly forecast 22-Aug-2011

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Gold on 23-Aug-2011 (Tue)

Mad Bull

Divergence in 30 Min Chart:
Short term correction, looking at healthy pull back Intraday 50% Fibo Level.

Aim to pick long after 3 hours...

The picture explains all...

Daily Chart:
Mad bull and next target above 1900, 1925, 1958.

Fundamental Threat:
Fundamental issue shall kick in, if US Fed Mr. Ben introduce another stimulus... then it might slow down the bull a little bit.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Quote of the Day~

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

Warren Buffett

Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.

Another good link:


Short Wall Street (CFD) 10876 SL 10926 TG 10676 (close EOD)
Long Gold 1865.3 SL 1860 TG 1880
Long GBP/USD 1.6502 SL 1.6452 TG 1.6552 (itchy finger, 1:1 trade)

The moment I post the GBP/USD trade, I think I have made a mistake to let greed and fear took over me, I have just made an aggressive trade.
I am trading for a very small range, expect GBP/USD to pull up before it melt.
Not willing to close the position, but continue to observe myself with this crazy decision.

Face it, and manage it.

3:15pm (GMT+8)
Revised Gold target exit to 1905, SL 1885.
Wall Street moved SL to entry.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Bank of America (BAC) seeking 20% cut in consumer unit costs. The company’s workforce of 287,839 at midyear was the largest among U.S. banks. BAC shares has down by 48% this year, double the drop for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index. The bank is likely to eliminate thousands of positions... many people would have lose their job, it is going to be a tough time in US job market.

Stocks accelerated their selloff to finish near session lows in light, choppy trading last Friday (Aug 19, 2011) as investors were reluctant to remain in the market ahead of a weekend, amid worries over a global recession in addition to the ongoing euro zone jitters.

All three major averages logged their biggest four-week decline since Mar. 2009, with the S&P tumbling almost 16 percent during the period.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 172.93 points, or 1.57 percent, to finish at 10,817.65.
Source: Bloomberg


I quite like the forecast last week :)

I expect Dow to extend the fall on Monday and Tuesday until next target 10460.

Upon reaching this target, I have a feeling that DJIA, although they are in bad shape now, may possibly bounce off from the low. Fed chairman is scheduled to speak on Aug 26. Who knows what the policy maker will decide?

Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530
Current support: 10600
Next target: 10460.

If market were strongly supported at 10600 region and cannot break down, expect Dow to pull up to the strong resistance 11460. But do not rush into market because if a double bottom is formed, market may rebound fifty percent to 11835-12000!

My trade plan for Monday is to short at initial shadow, and close by EOD.
On our YM chart, Dow is trading at 10820, and I am going to short at 10920 SL 11020 TG 11620.

Stay tuned to our forum for more updates!

Nasdaq 100

Goldman now expects gross domestic product growth of 1.0 percent in the third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth — both down from 2.0 percent previously.

"From already quite low growth rates, it appears that the U.S. economy is losing further momentum," Goldman said.

Among the four major US Indices, Nasdaq 100 shed the most in 1 week.
Gap down, trading down.

Source: CNBC

It is very difficult to trade now and I suggest to stay out.

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


While GBP/USD has formed a new high this week and invalidates my forecast, I am going to look back to the bigger time frame to plan my next actions.

Monthly and Weekly Chart Outlook:
Short Term Bullish towards 1.6700-750 resistance.
Expect double top resistance hit hard! And bring GBP/USD down to 1.5500 again.

April'2011 High recorded 1.6746, watch it!

Daily Chart

After 5 days of continuous up up up days, GBP/USD finally marked a new high, and on both Thursday and Friday, GBP/USD create a healthy correction, it has corrected to 1/3 on both Thursday and Friday.

Like what I have mentioned earlier, GBP/USD has formed a inverted head and shoulder and the up up move is going to end soon, so... I am gonna ride the north train before the market collapse. :)

I am not able to get a good entry to long, short term bullishness towards 1.6700 region.

4 Hour Chart

Current Support at 1/3 retracement level 1.6450-480.
I aim to hunt for Long opportunity when the wild cat touches EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, which is a strong support at 1.6380-400.

EUR/USD forecast... stay tuned.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Philly Fed Aug 11 Manufacturing Index

Unemployment Claims:
Jobless claims topped forecast, climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month.
Unemployment at 9.1 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

August 2011 Business Outlook Survey, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity has dipped significantly. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Economic Data is bad.
Stocks tumbled.

The Dow fell 419.63 points, or 3.7 percent, to 10,990.58. Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields to a record low.

Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth

The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”



I have shorted on Wednesday at 1.4420 but my trade were out when market create a marginal top to 1.4515.

I almost thought that my forecast would run far this week until I read the forum and found something interesting from R.

The marginal top has actually qualified our setup for a trapezium.  BKO level at 1.4400.

I got in a little bit on EUR/USD yesterday during the antenna top, but I exit at a preset 1:1 risk reward ratio of 40 pips.

Last night, EUR/USD found a short term support at 1.4270 and formed a pincer bottom.  After last night dip of  180 pips, estimate EUR/USD to pull back to 1.4350 - 400 before breaking lower and hit initial target 1.4180.

Today's trade plan:
Short at 1.4353, SL 1.4400, TG 1.4180


Daily Chart:
Finally the bull shows exhaustion, 1st bearish candle seen at GBP/USD after 5 days of white candle, GBP/USD formed a new high this month 1.6589.

The new peak has invalidate my forecast, and confirmed an inverted head and shoulder.
from the day chart outlook, GBP/USD is currently moving strong, and the strength may last until 1.6700.

4 Hour Chart:
GBP/USD has corrected 1/3 last night when it found support at 1.6420.

It is likely GBP/USD test the strong support 1.6370-350 today before moving higher.
If GBP/USD retreat to 1.6350 and formed a reversal pattern in intraday chart, I am going in for a long trade.

Today's  forecast, market continue to resist below 1.6530 and going to test strong support 1.6350 (I think I am going crazy with the figures?) hahahaa, checked and no typo here.

Today's trade plan:
Short GBP/USD 1.6490 SL 1.6530 TG 1.6370 (entered)
Long GBP/USD 1.6350 SL 1.6300 TG 1.6470 (need to observe market reversal)

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Gold on 16-Aug-2011 (Tue)

Gold has moved up per our weekly forecast and going up to 1780.

It is so good to capture 1732 on Monday :)
alright, what's next?

Upon taking profit on 1780, I will be expecting a divergence in intraday chart (30 mins)

Monday, August 15, 2011


Gold regained its bull power after testing 1722.
Intraday bias up. Next resistance 1760, may possibly go up to 1780.

Daily Chart & Weekly Chart:
A Short term correction for the whole up trend is healthy! And the correction is going to last for another 2 weeks, or more? :-)
Prefer to short at 1780 for position trade, 1st exit 1715, 2nd exit 1700.

Short term trading,
Long 1732, SL 1722 (-10), TG 1762 (+30).
Short 1760 or 1780? observe intraday chart for trade action.

Ayumi babbling...
Fundamentally, the US dollar is gonna devalue after recent credit rating issue and the low interest rate. US consumer confidence also plunge to 54.9, lowest in 31 years....

Positive economic data from US Retail sale, employment rate, unemployment claims helped to lift the market, but we at Ayumi the Novice Trader believe that the recession is inevitable, market demand is low, deficit is wide, debt is high, with the government's policy to curb expenses, time is gonna be hard...

Lets hope everything to be fine for all citizen in America.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

May be the market has been interesting for past few months, but once I hear the crash, and the past two weeks has been a very good trading week for intraday trades. Most of my trades were filled and covered within 24 hours.

Weekly chart, strong resistance at 1.6450-470.
As long as GBP/USD do not trade above the strong resistance 1.6450-470, Bias Down.

Daily chart, temporary rebound, support level 1.6210.

4 Hour Chart, neutral, suspect a consolidation to happen within 1.6200 – 1.6350.

Prefer to short at 1.6350-390, as well as long at 1.6150-200 for intraday trade, target exit 150 pips, must close by EOD.
SL 45 pips.


Consolidation, consolidation in bigger range.

Group Resistance 1.4400
Group Support 1.4050

Intraday chart (30 min) show higher low, without a higher high, if there’s nothing from the fundamental to boost up the EUROs… or nothing from US again, it is possible for this pair to come lower. My preference is to aim to short the EUR/USD.

Guess it will be a quiet day on Monday… in case EUR/USD moves higher in slow-motion, upon reaching the group resistance I will get ready to short.

Intraday Trade:
Short EUR/USD 1.4410 SL 1.4460 (-50) TG 1.4210 (200)
Long EUR/USD 1.4090 SL 1.4040 (-50) TG 1.4290 (200)

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Live the vision

Release your limitless imagination from the confines of your limited ego. And allow the achievement of whatever you envision.

It is your ego that creates doubt. It is your ego that manufactures excuses.

Your ego holds your imagination back, and prevents you from achieving the fulfillment you truly desire. Yet you can choose, with love and positive intention, to let go of that confining, limiting ego.

Stop weighing yourself down with judgments about what you think you need. You have a whole beautiful, limitless imagination with which you can envision and fulfill what you truly desire.

Who you really are is infinitely more valuable than anyone you could ever pretend to be. Allow authenticity to direct and inform your words, your actions, your priorities and your goals.

Go ahead and visualize in rich detail the most beautiful, magnificent life you can imagine. Then stand up, step forward, and begin to truly live that vision.

Source: Ralph Marston, Great Day

Read more:

Yes, when I need to move forward, it is excuses that I created for myself, I would just say, I am not confident enough, my English is no good, I am afraid, I am not a champion… I have a job… and I just realised that... yeah, maybe it is my ego, so what?? Who cares??

I am not good?
I am a lot better than I was before!

We can either Work Harder for Higher Expectation,
Live with it, accept who we are now, and stop expecting a difference without Change.  Yeah, I recall the definition of Insanity:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

It has been a volatile week for the Dow, DJIA has shed 624 pts on Monday - worst since Dec 2008 and then gained 428 pts on Tuesday after testing the strong support at 10600 region, after which the Dow shed 503 pts on Wednesday and gained 395 pts on Thursday with better unemployment claim and continue to rise for 125 pts on Friday.

Weekly candlestick pattern suggest that Dow has found a strong support at 10600, Dow may continue to trade in range but will be suppressed under 11840 level – below its EMA200 line on Daily Chart.

Daily chart shows that DJIA has fulfilled 1/3 retracement (from the highest point in July to the lowest point last week) and with the current bullish sentiment, I forecast DJIA to continue to rise until 50% retracement level on Monday and Tuesday, which is 11650-680 coincide with EMA50 (4H Chart).

For intraday trader, it is good to enter long on Monday but have to follow your trade plan and avoid holding overnight position. There are simply too many announcements and market volatility will make your 300 pts profit run away very quickly.

Upon reaching the 50% retracement level during mid-week, observe for reversal sign either here or near 12000 regions (EMA200 on Daily Chart); grab the opportunity to short DJIA for a good position trade - lets ride the south train together :)


Up up Nasdaq 100 towards 2220 and strong resistance 2250.
Current support 2155.

Similar to DJIA, bullish sentiment shall continue on Monday & Tuesday, good for intraday long trade setup.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

GBP/USD on 11-Aug-2011 Thu

30 minutes chart
My trade action for today:
Short 1.6183 SL 1.6220 (-40) TG 1.6020 (+160)

Intraday Forecast
expect a little pull back to form 1/3 retracement (1.62 region) fulfill initial shadow, and continue to fall for the day.
current support 1.6100, next support 1.5999 (lets simplify - 1.6000).
Upon breaking below 1.6100, I will consider to add short.

Profit Pyramiding
Adding another short position is tricky!  Tuesday I am sitting for 250 pips, but my 2nd attempt, 3rd attempt, 4th attempt to short were triggered with losses. :-P
that means my nett profit is only 250-40-40-40 = 130 pips...
and yesterday without profit pyramiding clean profit 100 pips...
I still need to work very hard into this, may be seek master advise tonight at ProMaster gathering?
Who will be there?

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Trade Balance

China Trade Surplus
US Trade Deficit

What is the trade balance, trade surplus and trade deficit all about?

The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports.

The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.

Trade Surplus: 贸易顺差
A positive balance is known as a trade surplus if it consists of exporting more than is imported;

Trade Deficit: 贸易逆差、贸易赤字
A negative balance is referred to as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap.


China Trade Surplus

Chinese trade surplus widened sharply in July, boosted by above-forecast export growth and offering an upbeat sign for the country’s economy.

The trade surplus expanded to $31.5 billion, from June’s $22.27 billion, according to customs data released Wednesday.

A Reuters survey of economists had projected a $27.5 billion surplus, while a Dow Jones Newswires survey had tipped a $26 billion surfeit.

Export growth for the month accelerated to 20.4%, outpacing 17.9% in June and above the Dow Jones Newswires forecast of 17.5% and Reuters forecast of 17.4%.

Imports also accelerated, rising 22.9% in July compared to 19.3% in June. This outpaced the 22.3% Reuters projection, but lagged the 23.2% tipped by the Dow Jones survey.
Michael Kitchen is Asia editor for MarketWatch and is based in Los Angeles.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Present value

From Great Day - the Daily Motivator
You’ve been disappointed, and fallen short of the mark. But that was yesterday, and this is today.

Perhaps you weren’t as effective as you could have been, and didn’t discipline yourself as much as you could have done. But that was yesterday, and this is a new day.

Every shortcoming and every disappointment is now in your past. Though their effects may linger for a while, now is your opportunity to start moving beyond them.

You’ve learned some painful, yet valuable lessons. Now you can put those lessons to positive use.

This is a new day, with opportunities for you to act in new, more meaningful and effective ways. This is when you can work to transform your past experience, whatever it may have been, into present value.

No matter what has brought you here, embrace this day. For now you are free to create more good and meaningful substance in your world.

— Ralph Marston


Opened Position:
*New Short CL 8046 SL 8146 (-100) TG 7596 (+450) x 2
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200

Closed Position:
Triggered SL for GBP/USD antenna top trade (-40). Formed triple pincer, breakout and reach intraday high 1.6366.
Triggered SL for GBP/USD intraday short trade. GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
Took Profit for Long GBP/USD butterfly trade.

Transaction (FX)

Short Open:
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Long Open (Short Term, 4 hrs close at 1pm):
GBP/USD 1.6303 SL 1.6263 (-40) TG 1.6343 (+40)

Short Queue:
GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)

Monday, August 8, 2011

Transaction (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.6450 SL 1.6500 (-50 pips), TG 1.6200 (+250 pips).
EUR/USD at 1.4347, SL 1.4397 (-50 pips), TG 1.4147 (+200 pips).

EUR/USD triggered Stop Loss of -50pips.
GBP/USD floating profit +48 pips.

While I m posting this thread, GBP/USD profit >50 pips, and I moved my SL to entry +5 pips.

Crude oil futures - Weekly review: August 1 - 5


Aug, 07, 2011 08:14 AM - Benzinga Lightning Feed

Last week saw crude oil futures fall sharply, tumbling to a nine-month low on Friday before pulling back, as concerns over the U.S. economic recovery and lingering fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone prompted investors to shun riskier assets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures (NYMEX, CL) for delivery in September traded at USD87.08 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, plunging 9.5% over the week, its second consecutive weekly decline and the biggest drop since early May.

It earlier fell to USD83.03 a barrel, the lowest price since November 26, 2010.

Crude prices bounced off the nine-month low on Friday after the U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payrolls rose by 117,000 in July, above expectations for an increase of 95,000, while the previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 46,000 from a previously reported 18,000.

The unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 9.1% from 9.2%, the first decline in four months.

However, the better-than-expected jobs data failed to ease fears that the U.S. economic recovery was stalling, after a flurry of weak data earlier in the week fuelled concerns over a possible double-dip recession, underlining concerns over the short-term demand outlook from the world’s largest oil consumer.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. crude supplies increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, rising for the second consecutive week.

Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a 0.5 million barrel increase and the biggest gain since early April.

Global financial service provider Credit Agricole lowered its one-month price forecast for crude to USD85 a barrel, citing the uncertain economic outlook, it said in a report on Friday.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures (ICE, BRN) for September delivery traded at USD109.49 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 6.3% on the week and up USD22.41 on its U.S. counterpart.

After markets closed Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating by one notch to AA+ from AAA, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting a further downgrade could be possible within the next 12 to 18 months.

S&P said the debt ceiling deal reached by lawmakers to cut the federal deficit by an estimated USD2.1 trillion over a decade did not go far enough and “America’s governance and policymaking is becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed.”

In the week ahead, markets will get their first chance to react to the historic U.S. debt downgrade. Traders will also be paying close attention to Tuesday’s Federal Reserve rate announcement and its statement on monetary policy for any hints regarding further easing.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Wall Street hit the panic button last week and has suffered the worse trading day in three years.
DJIA heavily plunged more than 500 points on last Thursday and Global Stock Market was dampened.
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the market's gauge of anxiety, had its largest daily percentage spike since early 2007 on Thursday.


From technical chart, due to the fundamentals, DJIA has hit way beyond our wave target price (> 3L), however, with a reversal candle on daily chart and intraday chart, consolidation bias up - a temporary rebound is likely to happen in the beginning of this week.

Market is going to hit the resistance at the following levels:
Resistance2: 11950
Resistance1: 11680

The development of fundamental issues may continue to decide the next direction of DJIA, if market were to continue coming down, support levels as follow:
Support 1: 11150
Support 2: 10950


Similarly, market is prone to consolidation, bias up towards these resistance levels:
Resistance 2: 2265
Resistance 1: 2220

Without breaking beyond 2220, Nasdaq 100 is going to test current low 2132, breaking below this support 2132; we can see the next support at 2105.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Weekly candle: Consolidation, with widening range.
Group Resistance: 1.6480
Group Support: 1.6220

Daily Candle: neutral, slightly Bullish, immediate support 1.6320.

Monday GBP/USD may tend to go up higher towards 1.6450 and challenge the group resistance around 1.6480.
Upon reaching this resistance area, GBP/USD may form a bearish divergence in intraday 30 mins chart and trade down to current support 1.6320 again, without breaking below 1.6320, GBP/USD may resume uptrend to 1.6550.

However, if GBP/USD unable to break above resistance but traded below 1.6220 group support, GBP/USD may challenge 2nd support 1.6150.

Monday stay out unless market show good support at 1.6320.


To be continued....

Friday, August 5, 2011

GBP/USD on 5-Aug-2011 Fri

Head and shoulder formed as per forecast...
My 2nd attempt to short at 1.6440 was missed by 1 pip.
expect next support near 1.6150.

Related Post:
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011
Update on Aug 2, 2011:
Quick Update on FX on Aug 3, 2011:

Dollar Index

Up up and here we go... target 76.00

Related Post: 
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011
Update on Aug 2, 2011:

Source: CNN Money

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks plunged Thursday in their single worst day since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Dow tumbled 512 points -- its ninth deepest point drop ever -- as fear about the global economy spooked investors.

The market's fear gauge -- the VIX -- surged 35.8% to a reading of 31.8. A level above 30 signals a high degree of fear.
At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 512 points, or 4.3%, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) among the biggest drags on the blue chip index. Thursday's sell-off marked the steepest point loss since October 2008.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was down a staggering 60 points, or 4.8%.
The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 136 points, or 5.1%. Some of the better performing tech stocks, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Netflix (NFLX) were all down between 2% and 3%.
Fears about a global slowdown are at the forefront of investors' minds amid recent weak economic data. Early Thursday, the latest reading on jobless claims showed a large number of Americans remain unemployed.

Today economic data front, we observe:

GBP 15:00 Jul Halifax HPI (House Price Index) m/m, exp: 0.1%
GBP 16:30 Jul PPI (Producer Price Index) Input m/m, exp 0.6%

US 20:30: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, exp.: 85K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Private Payrolls, exp.: 115K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, exp.: 10K
US 20:30: Jul Unemployment Rate, exp.: 9.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp, exp.: 0.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, exp.: 34.3
US 20:30: Jul Chg in Household Survey Emply
US 03:00: Jun Consumer Credit, exp.: $5.000B

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Quick Update on FX

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the US economic data front, personal spending fell 0.2% in June (+0.1% expected) while personal income rose 0.1% (+0.2% expecting) according to the US Commerce Department. Also, the Senate has approved a deal to raise the debt ceiling by a 74-26 margin.
Source: IG Markets


Yesterday, highest GBP/USD has gone up 1.6327, and market is consolidating in a narrow range.
My short is not filled.

Last night there's a butterfly pattern that signifies at possible lift, but the strength didn't last. Upon completion of butterfly, I entered a short on GBP/USD at 1.6300.

Obviously, GBP/USD has shifted to a lower gear with the price action below EMA50 in 4 Hour Chart.

Few scenarios:
(1) go up 1.6350-380 to form right shoulder
(2) resisted at EMA50 and continue trade down

Based on the above scenarios,
Again, I will queue to short at 1.6380 and 1.6440 for position trade.
and Holding on to my opened position short at 1.6300 and target 1.6200 support line.

Great Thought for the Day:

Up to you

You will never solve your problems by getting other people to change. The way to move beyond whatever is holding you back is to make positive changes within yourself.

The problem is not the particular situation you are in. The problem is the way you interpret and relate to that situation.

The problem is not the way you are treated by others. The problem is the way you allow the actions of others to affect you.

The problem is not what has happened in the past. The problem is that you’re letting it continue to hold you back.

Take complete responsibility for a problem, and suddenly you are ninety percent of the distance toward solving it. For when you truly take responsibility, you gain real and powerful control.

Fully accept that it is up to you to get where you choose to go. And you’ll find everything necessary to make it so.

by Ralph Marston
Read more:

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Increase Debt Limit, Curb Expenses


The U.S. House on Monday passed the debt-ceiling deal worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, sending it to the Senate for consideration a day before the deadline for the government to face possible default.

Dollar Index

Moving up...


Widening range, GBP/USD attempted 1.6469 high, without touching 1.6550,
and plunge the our support level 1.6300, as per our weekly forecast.

I expect a consolidation at current price level 1.6300.
Current resistance 1.6380, 2nd resistance 1.6440.

Will try to short at 1.6380 today, if market triggered my SL and moved higher, I will try again at 1.6440 SL 1.6480 (yesterday high).

if market were to be resisted at 1.6440 my 2nd attempt to short is successful, then GBP/USD would have formed a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.

Looking forward to temp support 1.6300, breaking below this level then we shall see GBP/USD fall to 1.6150 support soon.

Related Post:

Monday, August 1, 2011

Market Chat

Tomorrow, meet us online!

Market Chat
2nd August 2011 (Tuesday) 9:00pm (GMT+8)

Register online, for 1 hour market chat (from 9pm to 10pm) with my Sifu DAR Wong:


3 September 2011 - 4 September 2011 (Weekend) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Unexpectedly shoot up in the last 12 hours, before the weekly candle closed GBP/USD bounces off 1.6250, all the way to 1.6450, 200 pips range.

I cannot explain the price action; basically it is due to fundamentals, as well as the technical resistance on Dollar Index.
Devaluation of the USD... Debt Crisis, Debt Limit, Curb Expenditures...

If you have been reading, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader mentioned the following for GBP/USD:
“Unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.”

Market moved up, and formed a high of 1.6469.
Which means, I will sit back, and expect GBP/USD to continue going up to 1.6550 regions = May 31 high...

Expect good support at 1.6300 if GBP/USD were to trade down on Monday.

Short: Stay out until 1.6550 regions.
Long: intraday trade long near support, target 1.6550 region, or close EOD.


EUR/USD has moved up as per forecast, but, my long entry gets triggered when EUR/USD made a new low before it rally.

The chart look weird with a lower low, and higher high, which indirectly means EUR/USD is trading into a widening range.

Support 1.4340 - 1.4280.

Weekly Chart: Indecisive. Resistance 1.4530. Support 1.4230.

Intraday view: Consolidation bias bullish.
No trade, stay out.

Dollar Index

What we like about it….
Hit Resistance on 4 Hour chart, and a quick correction.

As long as Dollar Index do not trade below 73.50 region, the consolidation shall last for the beginning of the week (another 4-6 bars in 4 Hour Chart), any fundamental news that trigger dollar index above 74.60 will lead all the way… up. :)

1st resistance 75.00
2nd resistance 76.00, Target.

If Dollar Index traded below 73.50, then expect dollar to dive down to May 2011 low near 72.80 region.

Chart tells everything..