Unemployment Claims:
Jobless claims topped forecast, climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month.
Unemployment at 9.1 percent.
Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/first-time-unemployment-claims-in-u-s-rise-more-than-estimated-to-408-000.html
August 2011 Business Outlook Survey, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity has dipped significantly. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2011/bos0811.cfm
Economic Data is bad.
Stocks tumbled.
The Dow fell 419.63 points, or 3.7 percent, to 10,990.58. Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields to a record low.
Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth
The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
Related: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-netapp-decline.html
EUR/USD
I have shorted on Wednesday at 1.4420 but my trade were out when market create a marginal top to 1.4515.
I almost thought that my forecast would run far this week until I read the forum and found something interesting from R.
The marginal top has actually qualified our setup for a trapezium. BKO level at 1.4400.
I got in a little bit on EUR/USD yesterday during the antenna top, but I exit at a preset 1:1 risk reward ratio of 40 pips.
Last night, EUR/USD found a short term support at 1.4270 and formed a pincer bottom. After last night dip of 180 pips, estimate EUR/USD to pull back to 1.4350 - 400 before breaking lower and hit initial target 1.4180.
Today's trade plan:
Short at 1.4353, SL 1.4400, TG 1.4180
GBP/USD
Daily Chart:
Finally the bull shows exhaustion, 1st bearish candle seen at GBP/USD after 5 days of white candle, GBP/USD formed a new high this month 1.6589.
The new peak has invalidate my forecast, and confirmed an inverted head and shoulder.
from the day chart outlook, GBP/USD is currently moving strong, and the strength may last until 1.6700.
4 Hour Chart:
GBP/USD has corrected 1/3 last night when it found support at 1.6420.
It is likely GBP/USD test the strong support 1.6370-350 today before moving higher.
If GBP/USD retreat to 1.6350 and formed a reversal pattern in intraday chart, I am going in for a long trade.
Today's forecast, market continue to resist below 1.6530 and going to test strong support 1.6350 (I think I am going crazy with the figures?) hahahaa, checked and no typo here.
Today's trade plan:
Short GBP/USD 1.6490 SL 1.6530 TG 1.6370 (entered)
Long GBP/USD 1.6350 SL 1.6300 TG 1.6470 (need to observe market reversal)
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