Transaction

hm... this is an impulsive trade.
First trade on minor pair.

Base on 1 hour chart divergence.

GBP/JPY short.
Short at 173.32
SL 30 pips
TG 60 pips / close after 1 hour.

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

FX Updates

I am thrilled...

Look at the gravity..

USD/JPY

Daily Chart

USD/JPY

4 Hour Chart

The Yen currency has devalued to a point where a correction is needed.

I think USD/JPY still have range to fall, towards 93.00.

However, any fundamental changes would help to end this correction early.
I forecast market to resume uptrend to 104.20, and 106.30 after correction.

USDX

Take a look at US Dollar Index Daily Chart..

Market has fallen to EMA200, and some slim shadow over here... hope EMA200 (gold dash-dot line) work as a net - for USDX to bounce off to 82.00 then 82.70.

I reckon a sideways bias up movement for USDX.

Forecast market to resume downtrend after this bounce, towards 81.00 then 80.00 before July 2013.

Long black Long white

Long black or Americano,
Commonly found in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.
Double shot Espresso, over hot water.

Long black
Long black is more strongly flavored.
(Water first, Espresso second)

Americano
(Espresso first, water second)

So, JPY has a long tailed white candle, that's the idea of this blog title.  (^_^)

Time to start my weekend project.

Well, I am not having a Long black now, but today, this house blend from Starbucks + Chocolate Tuxedo Cake is a luxury.

What's Starbucks House Blend?
Check this out: http://www.starbucksstore.com/house-blend/VM_HOUSE,default,pd.html



Cheers
Ayumi

Nice fall Usd/JPY

Resisted below 103




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

USD/JPY on 2013-04-23

This is scary

Can u see the long shadow in one of the 30 minutes candle?

I was having a Long position.

I was tired and sleepy.

And luckily I moved stop loss to entry, came out of the trade at zero profit zero loss.



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

First trade 2013

First trade of the year.
My humble beginning of FX (again).



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has formed a new X in December when it strikes 1.3307 high.
Beginning of this year it has confirmed the B and currently hit 2L.

after hitting 2L market is currently doing retracement, I reckon retracement up to return to 1.3150.

Intraday chart (30M, 60M) is showing stochastic oversold) therefore upside is limited.

Closing below 1.3150 would lead market down below to 1.30, then to strong support 1.2900 (EMA200, Daily Chart).

GBP/USD

pincer top on daily chart is scary (pin bar top), 2/1/2013.
Market shows support at 1.60.

Last week's trading range is big, its volatile.
Market has not been so interesting after loooong time (since Sep 2012).

While I am waiting for next trend to evolve, I am making an assumption:

market to continue moving up slowly to 1.6180 (EMA50, 4H), resisted, form a reversal down, and return to 1.5950 (EMA200, Daily) and ultimately 1.5850.

IF, market didn't break below 1.5950 but continue up, then I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting 1.65.

USD/JPY

New prime minister, QE.
Devalue JPY.

USD/JPY up, up, up.

with unlimited printing, USD/JPY is a safe ride - it just keep going up, no looking back.
currently trading at 88.15 region, I reckon USD/JPY to reach  90.00 and 92.80 in January 2013.

Weekly Forecast (FX) + Gold

GBP/USD

Daily range : 80 pips

Current: 1.6090

Daily chart: Trading in a downward channel, ding dong up and down towards 1.5850 (EMA200) in 2 weeks time.
Intraday chart: bearish, reckon to return to equilibrium :: shall slide from current 1.6090 to 1.6045, hopefully can reach 1.6020 before posing higher.

Stay out.

USD/JPY

Daily Range: 45 pips

The central bank is expected to cut its growth and price projections at the October 30 policy meeting.
Market is led by fundamental developments - weak external demand, strong yen… how would the next stimulus package help with USD/JPY?  Stay close to news and I prefer to stay out.


EUR/USD

Daily Range: 70 pips

Weekly chart: Sideways, contracting trading range, awaiting breakout.
Daily chart: current support risen up to 1.2890, resistance 1.2990.  Strong support 1.2800, Strong Resistance 1.3090.
Intraday (4H) Chart: market shall continue trading in this flag pattern until Thursday / Friday.

Neutral.  No trade.

XAU/USD

Daily Range: $16
Weekly Chart: Bearish, although with a star candlestick pattern, we need a confirmation if market is going to reverse up and resume up trend.

Personal bias:
We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon market to continue trending down from current price $1712 towards $1660, that is -$50.

Daily Chart:
Gold has posted a strong gain last Friday, from low $1700 to $1718 – and this bullish sentiment shall take a breather, retrace to $1709, and challenge $1720 again on Monday.

Trading Plan:
I will hunt for short instead of Long at support…
However, for aggressive trading : I would place a Long trade on Monday near $1709, close EOD or near resistance.
Main objective for the week would be hunting short near resistance $1715-20, target exit 1700.

chart explains far better than words:

Cheers
Ayumi

Bond Bond Bond

Resources:
How to Trade the Other Sovereign Debt Mess By: Kelley Holland
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43113097

Video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=3000023946

China Behind Massive Foreign Buying in Japanese Bonds By: Reuters
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43213037

Some lines extracted from this article:

Foreigners bought a net 4.696 trillion yen ($57.7 billion) of Japanese bonds in the five weeks to May 20, a record amount of purchases for any five consecutive weeks since data began to be compiled in its current form in 2005.

"As the euro started to suffer from debt problems again, some reserve managers could have shifted some of their euro-denominated to assets to the yen," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
This was similar to last year when China's foray in the short-term yen market coincided with worries about Greece's ability to pay back debt.
But China quickly moved out of that position, selling a large amount of yen bills in August to take profits after the yen rose. Market players said at that the time China was unlikely to keep a large amount of funds in the yen because yields were low.

Trade Deficit, Budget Deficit..

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens More Than Estimated on Surge in Oil Imports
Source: Bloomberg News

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in March as the highest oil prices in more than two years boosted imports, eclipsing record exports.

WTI Crude price rose to as high as 106.94 on 7-Mar-2011, corrected to below 100 yesterday. Last traded 99.06 USD per barrel.

At the same time, US Dollar index - against a basket of 6 currencies, plunge to as low as 72.86 on 4-May-2011, rebounded to 75.405.

We believe the current situation will keep driving up the cost of imports (lower USD, higher cost of production) ---- while the weak currency will keep US competitive of exporting the goods to emerging markets, yes, as a result of weaker dollar, we shall see more Coach bags, Prada Bags, Gucci Bags... because it looks cheaper with the weak currency now :)

And... ah ha~~ I am very very happy playing with the kids, and talking to my brother, and talking to my sister-in-law, I have so much fun, and I love my brother, I love my niece, I love my sister-in-law! :)

Certainly my brother has so much talent, just a click or two, he can give me an answer -- of a question that has been troubling me for months! oops... come back to Economics. :p

The Trade Gap in US is going to widen a bit... but it must come back to an equilibrium.

The trade gap rose 6 percent to $48.2 billion, the biggest since June, from $45.4 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected it would widen to $47 billion. Sales abroad climbed by the most in 17 years.

Budget Deficit...

US Budget Deficit to Exceed $1 Trillion Again This Year
Source: CNBC

Curb federal Spending, increase tax..
We need more jobs, more employment (more people working), more tax revenue for the government, maintain low interest rate so that we can continue to stimulate the economy, continue to weaken the dollar by printing more and more paper money...

But with QE2 coming to an end (in 2 weeks...?) speculations and rumors are all over the places.

What would be the future of US Economies? DJIA, Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the precious metal like Gold and Silver?

Weekly Forecast (FX)

USD/CHF

Downtrend, with a reversal pattern on Daily Chart.

Counter Trend:
Long 8839, SL 8809, TG 8950 (must close by EOD)

Follow Trend (short upon retracement):
Short 9050, SL 9080, TG 8960.
Current support 0.8775
2 weeks support 0.8600


EUR/USD

Uptrend, with a reversal pattern on Daily Chart.

Counter Trend:
Short 1.4585 (initial shadow), SL 1.4615 (if risk appetite is Big, SL at Thursday high 1.4647),
TG 1.4430 - 1.4400 (close by EOD).

Follow Trend (Long upon retracement, short term position as I'm expecting a double top)
Long 1.4260, SL 1.4230, TG 1.4400, TG2: 1.4600.


GBP/USD

I am not comfortable with the trading range and the chart pattern, stay out.


USD/JPY

Trading near a major support of 81.00.
Are we expecting some intervention?

Monday is going to be another quiet day...

Quick Update on FX

USD/JPY

Overhead trend line resistance coincide with Fibo Retracement Level, expect resistance at 81.20-30, USD/JPY may retrace a little bit, and plunge to new low this evening.
Expect support at 80.30.


EUR/USD

Bull or Bear?

From the week chart, EUR/USD currently resisted at the weekly trend line, if EUR/USD break above 1.4035 high, and close above the yellow line (1.3980), EUR/USD is going to challenge another top 1.4250.

Without breaking above previous high 1.4035, it gives us good opportunity to short EUR/USD. I have shorted 3 times, 1st time I have been triggered 30 pips, 2nd time I squared my position at 7 pips, and 3rd time which is last night, triggered 30 pips.

I regard 1.4035 is a crucial level to watch, many price action has been around this level, I believe the ding-dong will continue to test this top for another 3 rounds today, before a meaningful breakout happen.

The above chart indicates my preferred breakout pattern, and the area which I wanted to short and take profit, hope that this time we can get in, and ride the profit.

Intraday Short 1.4008, SL 30pips, TG 1.3900.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has posted a gain of +167 pips this week, lowest 1.3426, highest 1.3713.
Resistance 2: 1.3850
Resistance 1: 1.3750

If we look into the Day chart, EUR/USD uptrend has been secured with a 1/3 retracement that has completed last week.  Coming week, I am looking at EUR/USD to test R2: 1.3850. Forecast Range for coming week: 1.3550-1.3850.

Support 1: 1.3620
Support 2: 1.3570

Monday: Plan to Long when market comes to 1.3650, SL 1.3620, TG 1.3750
For the Week: Long at 1.3570, SL 1.3530, TG 1.3850 or close by End of Week, whichever come first.

GBP/USD

Bullish on GBP/USD, finally GBP/USD it has breakout from the diminished trading range and GBP/USD is set to go!  GBP/USD close at 1.6247, High 1.6261.

Resistance: 1.6350 (Double Top)
Support 1: 1.6170
Support 2: 1.6080

To play safe for coming Week, I will standby to observe for Long when market comes to 1.6180 SL 1.6140-50 TG 1.6350.
Some traders may want to short at 1.6350 resistance, I will close my Long at resistance, and observe for reversal sign to short at 1.6350-450 region.

In case GBP/USD started to slide from current high 1.6260, and formed a bearish candlestick pattern on week chart, I believe the bear will take the Cable South to test 1.5300 in by end of April-2011.

USD/JPY

It is not easy to get my entry last week, it missed by 6 hours!  As my order is good till 4pm, I didn't get the short entry... USD/JPY is trading at the middle of the range that I do not wished to trade, I prefer to stay out!

Transaction (FX)

USD/JPY

Short USD/JPY at 83.45, SL 83.80 (35 pips), TG 82.80 / EOD

Related: Weekly Forecast (FX) on 14-Feb-2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Bias Down.
Target for the Week: 1.3430
R2: 1.3620
R1: 1.3570
S1: 1.3430
S2: 1.3250
Intraday trade for Monday: Short 1.3570 SL 1.3620 TG 1.3430 (by EOD).
Need to close this trade by End of Day (EOD) because EUR/USD may also pull up to 1.3620 (observe recent 3 weekly long candle with short body).

GBP/USD

Weekly Chart shows Strong Resistance = 1.6280.
Current trading range is not normal for GBP/USD, this market may trade in range 1.6100 - 1.5850 bias down to test support.
Upon breakout to the downside, expect strong support at 1.5650.
breakout to the upside, expect GBP/USD challenge double top 1.6280.

Do not like to trade in consolidation. Stay out.

USD/JPY

Intraday trending up, with strong resistance at 84.00-84.50 region.
Expect correction to continue, minor support 82.85-82.65.
Support 81.75.

Intraday trade for Monday and consider shorting USD/JPY at 83.60 SL 83.80 TG 82.80.

Charting by Broco Trader (MetaQuotes Software Corp)

Updates

Hi all, I do not have much time for a full posting today, before I go off, I wished to post some quick updates on some major currency and Gold.

EUR/USD

Trading near to resistance level, hopefully market continue to retrace, remain same view, only to pick short at key resistance level 1.3050.

Related Post: Weekly forecast (FX)

USD/JPY
Position open on USD/JPY.
Long 82.80 SL 82.50 TG 84.50

DJIA

2308 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks mixed, hurt by telecommunication companies as investors mulled the impact of the expected launch of Apple''s iPhone for Verizon and as worries mounted over the health of the euro-zone economy. Sprint Nextel fell 2.1% and AT&T shed 1.8% in the wake of confirmation over the weekend that Verizon Wireless will officially announce Tuesday that it will carry Apple''s iPhone, which initially had only been available on the AT&T network. Dupont fell 1.5%, after agreeing to acquire Denmark''s Danisco in a $6.3 billion deal. Investors said the market''s pullback was a natural reaction after its climb in the last quarter of 2010 stretched into last week. Portfolio managers also are waiting for earnings reports to revise their outlooks and see which sectors are poised to do well in the new year. "Earnings in the first half of the year should be pretty good. I''m concerned a little bit about the second half," said Richard Sherry, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management. "Companies have been doing a good job of managing costs, but as we go through the year it will become more difficult," as investors watch to see which companies are exhibiting growth, he said. DJIA down 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly semicons +1.0%. (by: rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)

Link: Dow Jones NewsPlus

Gold

Gold is also trading upward and trading near our favourite resistance level, remember we favour 1382-85, and 1391-1400.

Related: Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Although we forecast market to retrace (go up), but don't you see that I do not trade Long?

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Bear in play.
Expect a little bit of retracement to pick short @ Resistance 1.3050.
Monday can practise initial shadow for short entry near 1.2940, SL 1.2980, TG 1.2800.
For position trade, short at 1.3050, SL 1.31 (-50 pips), TG 1.2600 (+350 pips).

Beware of Thursday announcement.
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 20:45 (GMT+8) EUR - minimum bid rate
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 21:30 (GMT+8) EUR - ECB press conference

GBP/USD

Favourite pair.  Consolidating in big swing.
Suspect GBP/USD to trade in range before any meaningful breakout is spotted.  Range for the week before breakout: 1.5650 - 1.5400.

Breaking above 1.5700, GBP/USD may find another resistance level near 1.5800, so SL must be set tight.

My preference is to the downside, therefore, picking short near key resistance level at 1.5650 is preferred, with my downside target at 1.5300, and 1.5100 in Feb-11.

My position trade would to short at 1.5660, SL 1.5700 (-40 pips), TG 1.5300 (+360 pips).

USD/JPY

Higher and higher, resistance 84.50, 85.90.
Support 82.83, 82.30.
Find good long opportunity near 82.80 or 82.30 region, SL 30 pips, TG at resistance level.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

A trader with no idea of the price locality in a market trend will naturally has no idea of cut-loss point for his existing position.

Most (new) traders play the game with greed of wanting fast monies but not aware of unlimited losses if sit in adverse trend.  Thus, trading becomes a wager.

New traders always prefer to hit an instant entry when market moves.  This is even worst when market swings or u-turns that shatter them.

*** Never let the market trend runs against you randomly by setting your maximum risk tolerannce. ***

I was once confused how can one of the respected coach maintain his stop loss at 30 pips or maximum 40 pips away?

I checked my trading record, and I found that I have many trading plans that have maximum risk tolerance nowadays.

for FX 40 to 50 pips, for indices, 100 points.

And I come to realise that --- I thought I am good, but somehow, *shy* I am ignorant... Why doubt while the masters can do it? *Bow* to the masters and coaches.
We can make it, we can always target to initiate our entry from top regions / or from bottom regions of a trend, sharpen our entries is the clue.

Don't let greed and fear affect my decision.
If market just did not come to my price, just let it be, tomorrow will be another day.
If tomorrow I still cannot get my entry, just let it be - this shows that my forecast of market trend is correct!

(you know who said this?  Answer: My all time favourite mentor JC said this! during a mindset tuning session with another full time trader)

I just need to be patient, to sharpen my entry, my stop loss, and my target price.

I just need to.

You are right, but you just cannot make the money for yourself, yet.
The time will come.  We just need to work harder.

================================

Major Currency - USD/JPY
Close: 84.08

Monthly Candle: Bullish Engulfing Pattern from Bottom 80.24.
Weekly Candle: continuous of 4 weekly candle going up and up!
Daily Candle: Bullish!

Pick reversal to enter Long: Entry near 83.55. SL 30 pips,
or Short near top region 84.50 - 84.80.

EUR/USD
Close: 1.3237

EUR/USD has just completed the whole trapezium and the result is soooooo amazing!
+700 pips profit.
Dear associates, remember to practice and back test and do it again and again.

You miss this, but don't miss the next.

Now EUR/USD has traveled to the next Trapezium Z1 line.
Successfully close below this Z1 line (1.3180) would mean we can prepare to Sell.

Down Trend is obvious, short when market retraces, or practice initial shadow entry to short.

R2: 1.3580
R1: 1.3380
S1: 1.3180
S2: 1.2980

GBP/USD
Close: 1.5587

Falling knife.
Falling knife.

Trading near its EMA200 on Daily Chart, Ayumi suspects the market to do some consolidation in the coming week, trading range around 1.5550 - 1.5880.

Will only short when market trade near 1.5880, Target at 1.5400 region.
Avoid trading this pair for the moment.