DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Ops! I am late!

It is afternoon here at 4pm (GMT+8).

FTSE 100 opened lower, Friday close 6,347.24 pts, last done 6,329.47 pts.
but it has done quite nice for the year to date at +7.32%.

Last Friday we have positive NFP, improved US consumer sentiment, better than forecast Eurozone economic data and sustained growth in China - easing worry of demand in the world's 2nd largest economy, US market has flirted above 14,000 pts (I am excited!)

US did not fall off fiscal cliff, and the debt ceiling issue were now pushed to May-2013.

This week, the financial earnings comes to full force and we reckon market to continue sky rocket higher in line with many positive reports as a result of continuous stimulus from Federal Reserves.

Trade with caution as the strength of the bull is now at its fullest, market couldn't go up all the way,
therefore, we reckon a healthy pull back to be in place - so be prepared, the bull might be exhausted when we are trading towards March 2013.

DJIA / US30 / YM

Market - bullish
Short term support: 13,950 (1/3 retracement of Friday's H-Lo)

As per our forecast since last month, after hitting 14,000, next target is 14,120 pts.
Grab it!

Related:
Forecast 28-Jan-2013
Forecast 21-Jan-2013

Nasdaq 100

Market - slight bullish
Short term support 2750 pts (1/3 retracement of Friday's H-Lo)

Market revisit resistance near 2775 pts, and we reckon market to continue trading sideways bias up to hit 2775 pts, then 2785 pts and ultimately 2800 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

Updates on Thu 15 Nov 2012

Like Christmas is Coming~ :)
I am going to get the song "Spring" choreographed!
These songs were from Karim Nagi latest album "Arabized", very cool crossovers.

FOMC
Minutes
Bloomberg Video

DJIA

Market shed 90 pts after FOMC meeting minutes

My long trade on Nasdaq100 has triggered SL immediately at the following hour.

Market break below previous low without much upward retracement, not even 1/3;
Forecast market to continue extension to 3L at 12,400 pts

Check DJIA daily chart:
Strong support at 12450 pts, so if we get an opportunity to short, I may exit around 12400 - 450 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Last trading at 2530, not much room to reach target, target 2523, previous support 2522.

Gold

Weekly Chart
With the bullish candlestick pattern last week, I reckon market to head up, although I am not that convinced as Gold didn't reach 50% retracement level to $1661.

Daily Chart
Gold has posted a handsome reversal when it touches EMA200, as u know I am not convinced, but if market were to continue bullish sentiments, i take 1:1 target price near $1784.

Intraday Chart
Same support were seen in 4H chart, there are a few inner wave plotted.

Gold last traded at $1725, reckon market to trade within this symmetrical triangle, breaking up or down.
breaking down to $1705, breaking up to complete 1:1 and reach $1784.

Waiting for Friday

There are a few economic releases traders will be eyeing Wednesday, but the main topic will once more be the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will give there Friday.

Today (Wednesday)
economic data includes:

10pm SG/MY Time: pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET

8:30pm SG/MY Time: second look at second quarter GDP, at 8:30 a.m ET.

2am SG/MY Time (Thursday)
The biggest release of the day comes at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed puts out its beige book on the economy, which is sure to be picked over for any discussion of employment.

Read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48816277

Hurricane Isaac is affecting the energy prices, check NYMEX Crude.

Recovery

Monetary policy is working?
Near to Zero Interest Rate (since December 2008), Quantitative Easing, Purchasing of Long Term US Treasury Bonds, Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (from 2008-2010), Operation Twist, Printing Money...

Read more from Wall Street Journal

2012 started with a boost!
For the first trading week in 2012, US major index:
Dow Jones risen 1.2%, Nasdaq Composite +2.7%, S&P 500 Index +1.6%.

Read more from Bloomberg

On the economic data front:
In the month of December 2011, US Created 200,000 Non-Farm Payroll, better than market forecast 152,000, a whopping increment from previous month (November 2011) 100,000 (revised from 120,000).

Jobless rate falls to 8.5%, better than market forecast 8.7%, compare to last month 8.7% (revised from 8.6%), lowest since March 2009 (check it out).

Blessed 2011

Looking back… and looking forward.

I am blessed.

**I went to RT Pastry yesterday; I pointed at this cake and told the girl I wanted this Green Tea cake. Then realized this cake is smaller than the regular small cake, it is only 300 grams! **
**Special Cake for Special Event, for a special person like myself and family! **



I though 2011 was a bad year… and last night while reflecting how I spent my 2011… I found -- this is the most meaningful year for me.

I experienced the ups and downs being a trader, won the lottery - big wins, how I hit the jackpot for Gold rally, DJIA, and CL… and also lost a big chunk of money in GTI, many small losses FX.

These losses seems to occur towards end of the year… this central tendency made me wonder if 2011 was a bad year.  Reflection is a powerful tool, if you roll back, and counting the blessing, you'll find the world a better place.

I successfully became a certified coach for APSRI Trader ProMaster module. Carried out a few workshops. It is a paradigm shift and I learned many things over the journey.  Mentor teaches me to me compassionate, introduces me to meditation, APSRI team coaches - Trader Investor Point let me post in their FB wall, Ajahn Brahm teaches us to be kind.  Yes, helping others enrich our lives.

I successfully became a regular instructor in Chi Fitness, and also successfully choreographed belly dance songs, and teaching them. I am also building my syllabus.

And… by looking at my past belly dancing videos, *glad that I grab opportunity to video* by looking into my past performances, I have travelled a distance. I see the improvement in myself and I am glad I did.

Attended numerous workshops, learned from Hadia, Serkan Tutar, Wael Mansour, Percy Yeoh, Mercedes Nieto, Sandra, etc… I am thankful for all the workshops I attended, although I may not be the one who can remember the steps (yeah… I am not good in that) I would say learning from Sandra and Mercedes Nieto helps a lot! They are detail, systematic and they know how to teach the feminine sensuality in dance, how to perform and how to practice.

And… having been blogging since 2007 (yeah, 5 years has past); I written my first mandarin article and published in a bi-monthly issue Capital Asia by Business Media International.

Along the way there are challenges… Software, Dance, Coaching, Forum writing, blogging, financial column, trading, investing, it is tough to balance my time in between, thanks to my family who has been supportive, thanks to my friends who had trusted me, thanks to my colleague who has been keeping my secrets, thanks to my superior RN and my understanding lady boss BL.

I love 2011.

And I am going to excel higher, and make 2012 another meaningful year.

Bless all
Ayumi

DJIA on 25-Aug-11 (Thu)

Lets go higher...
Market expecting some good news from Mr. Ben?

We mentioned from our weekly forecast that DJIA may possibly bounce up from the low and moving towards:

Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530
Current support: 10600

I am expecting a Trapezium to form, hopefully DJIA can rally up above 11530 and ultimately 11800 to form the marginal top before everything collapse again.

My trade plan today:

Long Wall Street CFD @ 11177 SL 50 pts, TG 250 pts.

Related Post: Weekly forecast 22-Aug-2011

Transaction

Short Wall Street (CFD) 10876 SL 10926 TG 10676 (close EOD)
Long Gold 1865.3 SL 1860 TG 1880
Long GBP/USD 1.6502 SL 1.6452 TG 1.6552 (itchy finger, 1:1 trade)

Reflection:
The moment I post the GBP/USD trade, I think I have made a mistake to let greed and fear took over me, I have just made an aggressive trade.
I am trading for a very small range, expect GBP/USD to pull up before it melt.
Not willing to close the position, but continue to observe myself with this crazy decision.

Face it, and manage it.


3:15pm (GMT+8)
Revised Gold target exit to 1905, SL 1885.
Wall Street moved SL to entry.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Last week on the Wall Street, some economic data releases like Retail Sale and PPI were giving the market a boost, later part of the week economic data were mixed, US unemployment rate is high and consumer sentiment is weak!

The Euro-Zone debt crisis, will it spread over to US?
Will there be a QE3, or QE2.5 coming up?

DJIA

Volume start to pick up on last Friday, while DJIA is trading at the oversold region.

DJIA closed at 12004.36, slightly above 12000.... posting the 1st weekly gain after 6 weeks fall... Technically, DJIA is bearish, with the downtrend intact, current resistance shifted down to 12120. Weekly candle suggest a possible reversal, however, if the market were to reverse and move up, it has to at least break above 12180 and close near 12200.

Current support 11850 shall not be broken, in case market traded below this level, then market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.

Early of the week we can short DJIA upon reaching resistance of 12120, stop loss 12150, target 12000. Pay attention to your position during Thursday 12:30am - FOMC, Fed Fun Rate and 2:15am Press Conference.

Major economic data release ( GMT+8 )
Tuesday 10pm Existing Home Sale
Thursday 12:30am FOMC, Fed Fund Rate ***
Thursday 12:30am FOMC Press Conference ***
Thursday 8:30pm Unemployment Claims (as usual)
Thursday 10pm New Home Sale
Friday 8:30pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Nasdaq 100

Many believed that Nasdaq 100 is the leading indicator of the market movement, and Nasdaq 100 has posted the 7th losing week, and traded below March'11 low.

the market is facing strong selling pressure and traded below its 200days moving averages.

Best trade action on Nasdaq 100, is to trade Short, Monday pick a quick short trade if Nasdaq 100 trading near 2210, SL 2215, Target 2185.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

The stock market suffered wide-spread selling, pushing the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 in negative territory for the year.

DJIA

Last week, DJIA opened at 12151.20, closed at 11951.90 (-199.30 pts), -1.6%. Market fall for the 6th week.

We forecast market to enter into consolidation, with bearish momentum.
Market was oversold, and this week, economic data release is heavy, this would decide the next market direction. If economic data is strong, we may see a sudden rebound above 12000 and 12300.

Otherwise, market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.

Major economic data release
Tuesday 8:30pm Retail Sales & PPI
Wednesday 9:00pm TIC Long Term Purchase
Thursday 8:30pm Building Permit & Unemployment Claims
Thursday 10pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday 9:55am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Nasdaq 100

Last week economic data release is mixed but triggered massive selling in Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 is trading in negative territory for the year, opened at 2289.34, closed at 2223.34 (-66 pts), -2.9%.

Next support would be Mar'11 low 2188.92 (34.42 pts away).

However, if the policy maker stop printing money, no announcement on QE3, or any other policy to support the market by end of this month, we may foresee Nasdaq 100 resisted at 2270, and the waterfall to continue testing 2085 (Nov'10 low).

Waiting for the next giant move.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Traders are cautious!

There's only 2 more trading days to end the monthly candle.
Can DJIA close below 12330?

Honestly, I prefer this scenario to happen!
DJIA has been trading near 12450 region and last night it traded to high of 12487, and closes back at this resistance 12453 with a small positive candle on Daily Chart.

As spoken last week, I am going to short at 12650, market never turn up, then I switched to 12488, but the market didn't make this happen for us too!
Again, during these last 2 trading days (Monday and Tuesday), I am going to keep my patience and be alert of the development of DJIA when it approach 12488 again!

Check again on weekly chart, DJIA has closed another bearish candle for this week, it is a very crucial week for the Dow, if resistance remain strong, we are going to see the downfall early of June, if the waterfall happens, we expect the market to find support near 12220, and 12000.

However, if Dow has successfully crossed above 12700, if the policy maker made some decision to stimulate the economy (again), I am gonna stay out, the market might go to 13000 and 13300.

Have a fruitful week ahead!

Related: Last Week's Forecast - DJIA on 23-May-2011

Wall Street, Euro-Zone

Friday, Euro fall from 1.4320 to 1.4160 (160 pips, > 1%) against the US Dollar over the disagreements on how to handle Greek debt problem and worries on the default. Euro-zone officials were expected to pressure Greece to announce more austerity actions / steps on its debt problem.

At the same time, IMF approved 26 Billion Euro Loan for Portugal.

The news and economic pressure spread across Euro-Zone to Wall Street, last night, Dow lose -93.28 pts (0.74%) and close at 12512.04

Dow posted the 3rd losing week, weaken 0.7% this week.

DJIA on Mon 23-May-2011

Coming week, I am expecting Dow to continue trading in a downward channel, resistance at 12650 region which might attract Sellers to enter into the market.
12460 is the level which Dow is currently showing a temporary support.

My view on Dow is slightly bearish and I am expecting a pull up above 12650 to establish new Shorts.
Short Term trade aim at 12460 as profit target.

From a bigger picture, do you see something similar in play?
I am using a YM Chart as the study guide, I have marked the similar channel with a black crayon line.
Once YM breakout below the channel bottom, you will see continuous 4-5 days of deep, fast correction.

However, if the US Government is doing something else to stimulate the economy (again), market might continue the uptrend, go above 13000 and aim at 13300 target in 2 weeks.

I am joining the game to short at 12650 channel top and would hold the position for 2 weeks looking forward to successful break-Down.

Nasdaq-100 on 23-May-2011

Currently trading at mid range, stay out.

DJIA on Tue 15-Feb-2011

On DJIA Chart, our entry at 12238 is close to the day low and closed by EOD realised profit 30 pts.

Lets introduce CFD trading to the readers, every broker will have different price, 24 hours, and margin requirement is different too.  Some offer USD1 mini contract, some USD2, some SGD2...

Wall Street (2 mini contract) - underlying instrument = Dow Jones Industrial Average:

more on CFD to come...

Related: DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for 14-Feb-2011