Showing posts with label AUD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AUD. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Chinese Hike Boosts Dollar, But Hits Equities, Commodities

LONDON -- China's central bank surprised the European markets Tuesday with its decision to raise interest rates, sending the dollar higher but weakening commodities and equities.

The People's Bank of China said in a statement it will raise the one-year yuan lending rate to 5.56% from 5.31%, and the one-year yuan deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.25%, effective Wednesday.

This is the first rate hike by the Chinese central bank in almost three years--since December 2007--and comes as the Beijing government attempts to contain inflation and soaring property prices.

The majority of the impact was felt in the foreign exchange markets, where the U.S. dollar appreciated sharply at the expense of the high-beta currencies, like the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars.

"In effect, the move by the Chinese has drawn capital out of risk and reaffirmed the recent long-dollar trend," said analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.

By 1220 GMT, the dollar was trading at $1.3860 to the euro, compared with $1.3934 late Monday in New York, and at $0.9804 to the Australian dollar, far removed from the day's high of $0.9957.

The impact of the move was also felt in the commodity markets, as it is likely to slow down China's growth.

"The rationale behind this is that very easy Chinese monetary conditions have been one of the primary drivers for global asset demand (including commodities) and that this start to the rate-hiking cycle will tighten monetary conditions, thus reducing demand from China at the margin," noted RBC Capital Markets.

Spot gold fell around $11 to $1357 per troy ounce, while the benchmark November Nymex crude contract was $1.19 lower at $81.89 per barrel.

Equity markets turned negative on the news, with basic-resources stocks hit hard amid concerns that the higher borrowing costs might stunt Chinese demand for the related commodities.

By 1210 GMT, the Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources index was down 2.1%, while the more general Stoxx 600 index was 0.3% lower.

The impact was less obvious in the sovereign debt markets, as the benchmark December German bund contract edged off its lows, before drifting down in line with U.S. Treasurys.

By 1220 GMT, the December bund contract stood at 130.14, 0.42 lower.

By Peter Nurse, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9288; peter.nurse@dowjones.com

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

FX Market Rally Halted

If you follow EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD... rally seems halted...
it is good because we need to take a break, market need to take a breather, awaiting for a breakout.  Since I have the privilege of time, that I can watch the market today, I choose to enter the market during my visualization hour.

Today, my visualization hour will be:
1pm
4pm
8pm: Release of ADP National Employment Report at 8.15pm (GMT+8) is expected to show private payrolls rose 20,000 in September. Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 10,000 in August, less than the 17,000 economists were expecting. The ADP report — which is released today before of the big Friday BLS jobs report — is closely watched by the markets.
9.30pm: US market open
10.30pm: Crude Oil Inventories at 10.30pm (GMT+8) Energy Information Agency releases its weekly updates on oil stockpiles. Last week’s report showed that oil inventories dropped by 500,000, slightly more than analysts had anticipated. With crude up 6% so far this month, traders will be watching this gauge of demand.

Tonight I would skip my Zumba class for ADP Non-Farm Employment Chagne report.  I will practice my techniques at home, 3 techniques, 50 times each.
In the afternoon will be revision to the Professional Trade Master Module and back-testing on Equities, Futures market using the Volume change + Japanese Candlestick Reversal method. 3 markets, 3 products, 3 case studies.

Hopefully can steal some time to read the Universal Principles of Successful Trading too!

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

US Stock Futures Up But Off Highs Ahead Of ISM

From Dow Jones Newswires - Top Stories
http://www.djnewsplus.com/article/0,,SB128627424563230647,00.html?mod=article-outset-box
---By Barbara Kollmeyer; 34 91 395 8131; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

DJIA futures is trading at 10,754 now (8.30pm GMT+8)
U.S. stock-index futures signaled opening gains for Wall Street on Tuesday, with key ISM non-manufacturing data on tap and gold pushing higher in the wake of a Bank of Japan policy move.

Futures pared back their earlier advance, though, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average lately moving up 16 points to 10722 while those for the Nasdaq 100 advanced 6.26 points to 1983.25. Futures for the S&P 500 gained 2.4 points to 1137.20.

Stocks lost ground on Monday as downgrades hit several sectors, raising jitters about earnings season, which blue chip Alcoa Inc. (AA) is due to kick off later this week.

First and foremost for the U.S. markets on Tuesday is the ISM non-manufacturing data for September, scheduled for release at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting the index to rise to 52.3 from 51.5 in the prior month.

"After the disappointing ISM [manufacturing] number last week, people will watch very carefully what is happening with this index, the main factor to drive the market on the economic front," said Francois Savary, economist and director of investments at the Reyl Group.

This Friday 8-Oct-10: Nonfarm payroll data for September
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data for September remain the main event for the week, he said. "The influence of that number and the certainty concerning that number will be key from the point that people will be able to reassess prospects of rapid or not rapid quantitative easing and the Federal Reserve," he said.

Savary said the market remains range-bound and the S&P 500 could go to 1120, with much depending on Friday's data. But until earnings season gets into full steam, macroeconomic issues will continue to be key, he said.

AUD and JPY
Central banks delivered some surprises in overnight markets with the Bank of Australia holding steady on interest rates and the Bank of Japan dropping its policy interest-rate range to between zero and 0.1%, saying it plans to buy a variety of assets. Stocks in Japan largely shrugged off the news, while the Australian dollar fell but stocks there pared earlier losses.

Gold
Gold touched an intraday record of $1,329.60 an ounce. The dollar sank against the yen after getting only a brief Bank of Japan-related boost.

The dollar and gold tend to move in different directions. The dollar index dropped 0.3% to 78.315.

Stoxx Europe 600 Index
In Europe, stocks were poised to halt a six-session losing streak, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index gaining 0.1%. The market shook off news that Moody's Investors Service has put Ireland's credit rating under review for a possible downgrade.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
Friday closing: 1.3790

Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart shows bullishness, EUR/USD close at 1.3790 for the week.
I am looking at EUR/USD to rally to 1.4020-50 in coming week, so long as the support 1.3500-50 region can hold.

This pair already trade above 50% retracement, will it test another level above?

Resistance (Fibo) = 1.4020-50
observe for reversal sign to enter short when it reach this level.

My trading Plan:
Long EUR/USD
Entry 1.3590
SL 1.3550 (hammer on 30 mins chart)
TG1 1.3700 (+110 pips)
TG2 1.3820-50 (+230 pips)


GBP/USD
Friday Closing: 1.5815

This pair has been swinging up and down, it takes a lot of patience to trade this pair, I have been waiting for days for an entry, and I only aim for 100-150pips for intraday trading.

there's once quick trade on GBP/USD which I find interesting.  I have shorted at the antenna top when GBP/USD trading at high 1.5910 region, got killed at the 3rd bar (high 920), and then market moves in favour, ride through this short term trading strategy (Short 1.5909 - Close 1.5816), traders would have made for 100 pips profit.

Strong Resistance 1.6000
Resistance 1.5920
Resistance 1.5870
Support 1.5700-660
Strong Support 1.5600

From the chart pattern, GBP/USD has found a good support level at 1.5660 region.  It may continue the consolidation for the following week and test 1.60 high.

There're two possibilities:
1) GBP/USD being resisted at 1.5900 and start trading down to 1.5700, or further down to test 1.5610 region (EMA200 on 4 Hour).
2) GBP/USD to continue to consolidate in range of 250 pips bias up to test double top 1.6000.

I suggest to stay out.


AUD/USD
Friday Closing: 0.9725

Who loves to trade AUD/USD?  =)

Trend is clear.  Making new high everyday.
Extension wave is beautiful.

Current Resistance: 0.9750
Support: 0.9650
Strong Support: 0.9620

It almost created a divergence on Day Chart, but no, rally is not over yet, with current bullish trend, it may head up to test 2008 High 0.9850.  Which is only another 125 pips ahead.

With current resistance at 0.9750, hopefully AUD/USD can make little bit of swing down to 0.9700-0.9650, good to plant your long and ride with the trend until it break above 0.9750 to reach 0.9800-0.9850.

My Trading Plan:
Long AUD/USD
Entry: 0.9690
SL: 0.9650 (-40 pips)
TG: 0.9810 (+120 pips)


Friday, October 1, 2010

Transaction

AUD/USD

My entry was at 0.9620, and the day low is 0.9622.
From this low, AUD/USD has formed an inner wave up (target around 0.9740) and price currently trading above A.

I maintain my long view on AUD/USD.
Entry: 0.9660
SL: 0.9620 (-40)
TG: 0.9800 (+140)

DJIA

Those who followed my Long order for DJIA, congratulations!
Long Position @ 10,750 closed at 10,930 last night while DJIA made a marginal high of 10,948. DJIA closed at 10,788. Phew! formed a big candle last night.

Tonight we have manufacturing data release, lets see how market react with news.

All the best for the beginning of Q4 of 2010. Sifu DAR is coming to KL on 11th October and 16th October, see you there!

Cheers
Ayumi

Monday, September 27, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)

USD/JPY

(Reuters) - Further gains in the yen should be stopped and Japan will maintain close coordination with the United States and European Union if it intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb its currency's rise, Japan's foreign minister was quoted as saying.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68O06K20100925

After BOJ intevention, USD/JPY has up up up from bottom of 82.88.
However, for the past 1 week, USD/JPY has been falling in small range with high (X) at 85.94.

Technically, we are looking at the possibility that USD/JPY to continue to test 83.00 region with resistance kept at 85.00 region. Falling below 83.00 will lead to 82.13 (2L).

With Yen currently trading at 84.20, I aim to short USD/JPY when it is trading at 85.00 region with SL 30 pips away.

GBP/USD

For PowerWave traders, you will spot a inner wave up from 1.5292, with GBP/USD trading near WTP 1.5820 (2L) coincide 1.5850 (80% retracement from 1.5998).

So, what's next?

If GBP/USD can sustain at 1.5820 and continue to trade above 1.5850, there's a high possibility that GBP/USD will continue to head up to test 1.6000 and form a double top.

Strong Resistance 1.60.
(1) Break above 1.5850 -> 1.6000 Double Top

We shall observe the price action when GBP/USD has trading near 1.5850, even though I think it is less likely to happen now, if:
(2) GBP/USD Resisted at 1.5850 and turn down + a nice candlestick reversal pattern.
If price break below current support 1.5750, and the day candle closed below 1.5700, then I am looking at the next support: 1.5580. I will undoubtedly hunt for shorts for the down fall to 1.52... :)

Aggresive Long Traders: Long at 1.5740, SL 1.5700, TG 1.5850, TG2: 1.5950-1.60.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Closed at 0.9588 last Friday.

It has break so many resistance level and the up trend is pretty well supported by EMA20 on 4 Hour Chart last week.

Stochastic Oscillator is neither high or low, since it has hit the 3L extension, I suspect AUD/USD to consolidate Monday and Tuesday, I aim to capture a Long at 0.9520 with SL 30 pips away.

This pair is likely to continue its uptrend, with a strong resistance at July-08 High of 0.9850.
Breaking above this high I suspect it will move towards 0.9915.

Generally, market is bullish~ Trade with Trend, or wait patiently for *clear* reversal for shorts.
Quote from my Sifu DAR on today's update on Gold:
patience..patience! that's the only way to survive in mkt!
Like our APSRI Trader's Facebook on Sifu's Daily Gold Updates!
Click Here: http://www.facebook.com/ApsriTraders

Monday, September 20, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)

USD/JPY

NEW YORK | Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:11pm EDT
(Reuters) - The euro fell on Friday as European debt worries and weak U.S. consumer data enhanced the dollar's safe-haven appeal, while fear of Japanese intervention kept the yen near a one-month low against the U.S. currency. -By Steven C. Johnson-

USD/JPY has formed a bullish reversal signal from the bottom 82.88 on 15/9/2010, applies to weekly, daily, intraday charts.
Friday closing 85.85.

Strong Resistance: 88.00 (Fibo Retracement)
Resistance: 86.20 (Fibo Retracement)
Current Resistance: 85.95
Current Support: 85.20
Support: 84.50

No clear sign trading this pair, will observe for higher probability trades.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD also formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

From Daily chart, Doji candlestick at 1.2645 act as the strong support now, 1.2645 on 10/9/10. EUR/USD close at 1.3054 on last Friday 17/9/2010.

I am expecting EUR/USD to hit higher, my first target is to hit 1.3307 - resistance level.

Resistance: 1.3307 (previous high + innerwave 2L)
Current Resistance: 1.3160 (friday high + EMA200 on Daily Chart)

Do not rush into market yet, you can observe a reversal at 1.3158 on 4-hour chart, last Friday, I suspect EUR/USD to come down to 1.2930-900 region before continue to retrace higher.

hunt for good Long entry at 1.2930-900 region, if market break above 1.3160, we are expecting the market to teach TG1 at 1.33, and possibly 1.3510.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.5725 (Friday High)
Current Support: 1.5535 (Hammer on 4H Chart, Low on 16/9/10)
Support: 1.5440 (EMA200 on Daily Chart)

GBP/USD has a nice reversal pattern on Weekly Chart, however, the shooting star pattern on Friday shall pull GBP/USD down and I am looking at it to fall to 1.5440.

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 1.5670-1.5700 with SL > Friday high 1.5730.
My initial target is 1.5535, followed by 1.5440.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD has hit my target 0.9350 and even went higher > 0.9450 and also formed a strong candlestick reversal pattern on Day Chart similar to GBP/USD.  AUD/USD closed at 0.9360 on Friday.

Resistance: 0.9467 (Friday High)
Current Support: 0.9350
Support: 0.9185 (Fibo + EMA20 on Day Chart)

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 0.9410-450 with SL > Friday high 0.9470.
My initial target is 0.9350, followed by 0.9185.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

I spotted pattern in EUR/USD that I wished to trade next week.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sept. 7 that European stress tests for banks understated some holdings of sovereign debt in the wake of Greece’s budget crisis. Irish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached record highs versus benchmark German bunds based on concern European banks are vulnerable to losses on their holdings of peripheral euro-region debt.

Greece faces a “substantial” default risk when its bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said yesterday. Greece may need to extend a 110-billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

Source: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVyns8NXqz7Q

Due to the return of fear of Greece's sovereign debt crisis, I would regard this week's high of 1.2918 act as a resistance.

There's not much critical figure release next week on Euro, I suspect the range to be small next week. However, I would position my short entry when market come up to 1.2730 - 1.2750 region.

If EUR/USD has break and closed below 1.2580, I am expecting EUR/USD to continue the fall to 1.2170.

Strong Resistance: 1.2920
Resistance: 1.2750 (Pincer Top)
Support: 1.2580

Trading Plan (Intraday):
Short 1.2730 (1/3 of weekly candle)
SL 1.2770 (40 pips)
Exit 1.2600 (130 pips)

I would monitor EUR/USD when it comes to 1.2580 region to decide my next entry.


GBP/USD

GBP/USD is now trading in a range of 1.5500 - 1.5300.

My trading plan would be to execute orders at the extreme ends, prefer to short.

I suspect GBP/USD to go up on Monday, so it is a good opportunity to capture initial shadow and plant your shorts.
For those who attended Professional TA from sifu DAR, check 1 hour chart, you can see a pattern that support my view.

If market has break and closed below 1.5300, GBP/USD may continue to dive down to 1.5170 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Short 1.5410 (1/2 of weekly candle)
SL 1.5450 (40 pips)
TG 1.5300 (110 pips)

Trading Plan (Days)
Short 1.5500
SL 1.5540 (40 pips)
TG1 1.5300 (200 pips)
TG2 1.5170 (330 pips)


AUD/USD

It has been a bull run since end of August 2010 in AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has break above the previous high 0.9220 without looking back.
Temporary resistance 0.9280
I am looking at AUD/USD to continue to rally to test the historical resistance at 0.9350 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Long 0.9185 (50% of weekly candle)
SL 0.9155 (30 pips)
TG1 0.9280 (95 pips)
TG2 0.9350 (165 pips)

Monday, August 30, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Market has formed a reversal at 1.2586 on 24/8/2010 (Tuesday) and closed at 1.2760 on Friday.
Since I have missed the entry during reversal, I only plan to enter intraday trades with tight risk management.

If you zoom into 30 mins chart, you can see a divergence and hopefully the market can come down to 1.2680 region for my Long entry.  I do not want to short as I feel insecure to trade counter trend now.

My Trading Plan:

  1. Long at 1.2680-650 (Fibo retracement),
    SL 1.2600 (Current Support), TG: 1.2900
  2. Intraday Long at 1.2626 (Fibo Range),
    SL 1.2586 (-40 pips), TG 1.2800.


GBP/USD

The correction from the top of 1.5997 is not significant, in fact, I am waiting for this pair to come to 1.5100 region.

Strong Reversal spotted at 1.5370.
From Weekly and Daily Chart, we can see that this pair has formed a reversal signal, you can also see a pincer bottom at 4 Hour Chart.

Trading Plan for Intraday only:

  1. Intraday Long 1.5400
    SL 1.5370 (-30 pips), TG 1.5590 (+190)
  2. Intraday Short 1.5599
    SL 1.5620 (-21 pips), TG 1.5450 (+149).

AUD/USD

AUD/USD made a strong bounce up and close at 0.8986 on Friday, biggest gain this month.
 
Strong Resistance: 0.9080
Resistance: 0.9020
Support: 0.8870
Strong Support: 0.8770

My Trading Plan for coming week:
  1. Short 0.9020
    SL 0.9050, TG 0.8870.
  2. Long 0.8870
    SL 0.8840, TG 0.8990

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Tuesday FX Followup

Related Post: Weekly Forecast: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2010/08/weekly-forecast_23.html

EUR/USD

My order is filled,
Long 1.2685, SL1.2655 (-30), TG 1.2900
The market has moved in favour during the day, however resisted at 1.2720, at last EUR/USD has break support 1.2655 and continue to go down.

My stop loss is triggered.
I am going to look for opportunity to Long for reversal when market falls to 1.2550.


GBP/USD

Market did go up to high 1.5620 as forecast, my shorts at 1.5650 is not filled, and the market has started to fall from here.

I remain my view that this market will come down to 1.5180 in 1-2 weeks.

For Intraday, I will pick short around 1.5550, SL 1.5580, TG 1.5430 (current support), TG2: 1.5395.


AUD/USD

The most beautiful forecast is on AUD/USD.

Remember my trading Plan:
My Trading Plan for next week is:
1. to hunt for short around 0.8960-9000 with SL slightly above 0.9020.
2. It current resistance level 0.9020 has been taken out convincingly, I would wait for market to come to 0.9050 before I initiate any trades.
Market has come up to 0.8981 but didn't hit SL.
it is currently trading at 0.8870, congratulates to those who followed!

Today, I suspect AUD/USD will re-test the low of 0.8840, if market happen to rebound from here, my trading plan will be:
1. To wait for the market to rebound up to 0.8950 for new short entry.

Related Post: Weekly Forecast: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2010/08/weekly-forecast_23.html

Monday, August 23, 2010

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD

Current Resistance 1.2930
Current Support 1.2700 region.
Next Support 1.2550

EUR/USD has formed a nice reversal candlestick pattern in 30 minutes and 60 minutes chart at 1.2663 and closed above 1.2710.

I foresee the market to do a correction up to 1.2900 region.

My Plan for next week:
1. Long at current support at 1.2700 region, place my SL 40 pips away and TG 1.2900.
2. However, if market has break below current support, market to fall to test the next support 1.2550 region. ALWAYS protect ourselves with Stop Loss.


GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.5670
Support: 1.5460

I forecast this pair to fall to 1.5180 region in another 1-2 weeks.
We can see that the weekly candle has actually formed a small bodied candle signal market indecision.

I prefer to wait for market to come up to 1.5650 region to plant my shorts.

My trading plan for next week:
1. Look for Opportunity to Short near resistance level, preferably 1.5630-5670 (Intraday).
2. If market has break above this 1.5670, check for market reversal when it approach to next resistance 1.5730.


AUD/USD

I have a very good profit from AUD/USD last week, +380 pips! ^__^

Strong Resistance: 0.9080
Resistance: 0.9050
Current Resistance: 0.9020
Current Support: 0.8840
Trading Range should be 0.8870 - 0.9050

My Trading Plan for next week is:
1. to hunt for short around 0.8960-9000 with SL slightly above 0.9020.
2. It current resistance level 0.9020 has been taken out convincingly, I would wait for market to come to 0.9050 before I initiate any trades.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Transactions (FX)

AUD/USD

Position closed at 0.8865 and 0.8860.
Yes! Just now reach to low of 0.8840, I am soooooo happy.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

AUD/USD

Almost missed this one!

Saw a nice pattern in AUD/USD.
Open up the 4 Hour chart, I can see a Head and Shoulder formation now, waiting for the right shoulder to form,
Expecting this market to continue go up to 0.9070 region in these 2 days.

I prefer to :
Short at 0.9070 with SL 30 pips
TG1: 0.8860 (Current Support)

If you have bigger appetite, do profit pyramiding and the next target will be :
TG2: 0.8660

Everybody wants a bigger profit, one way is to.... expand your wallet size! ^__^
I have few ideas:
1. Buy a bigger wallet,
2. dispose all the unnecessary cards away!
erm... I mean those name card of other people, picture of the ex-es...
and... better keep credit cards cuz they provide zero 0% interest for 30 days
p/s make sure clear all debts by due date....