Monday, September 20, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)


NEW YORK | Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:11pm EDT
(Reuters) - The euro fell on Friday as European debt worries and weak U.S. consumer data enhanced the dollar's safe-haven appeal, while fear of Japanese intervention kept the yen near a one-month low against the U.S. currency. -By Steven C. Johnson-

USD/JPY has formed a bullish reversal signal from the bottom 82.88 on 15/9/2010, applies to weekly, daily, intraday charts.
Friday closing 85.85.

Strong Resistance: 88.00 (Fibo Retracement)
Resistance: 86.20 (Fibo Retracement)
Current Resistance: 85.95
Current Support: 85.20
Support: 84.50

No clear sign trading this pair, will observe for higher probability trades.


EUR/USD also formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

From Daily chart, Doji candlestick at 1.2645 act as the strong support now, 1.2645 on 10/9/10. EUR/USD close at 1.3054 on last Friday 17/9/2010.

I am expecting EUR/USD to hit higher, my first target is to hit 1.3307 - resistance level.

Resistance: 1.3307 (previous high + innerwave 2L)
Current Resistance: 1.3160 (friday high + EMA200 on Daily Chart)

Do not rush into market yet, you can observe a reversal at 1.3158 on 4-hour chart, last Friday, I suspect EUR/USD to come down to 1.2930-900 region before continue to retrace higher.

hunt for good Long entry at 1.2930-900 region, if market break above 1.3160, we are expecting the market to teach TG1 at 1.33, and possibly 1.3510.


Resistance: 1.5725 (Friday High)
Current Support: 1.5535 (Hammer on 4H Chart, Low on 16/9/10)
Support: 1.5440 (EMA200 on Daily Chart)

GBP/USD has a nice reversal pattern on Weekly Chart, however, the shooting star pattern on Friday shall pull GBP/USD down and I am looking at it to fall to 1.5440.

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 1.5670-1.5700 with SL > Friday high 1.5730.
My initial target is 1.5535, followed by 1.5440.


AUD/USD has hit my target 0.9350 and even went higher > 0.9450 and also formed a strong candlestick reversal pattern on Day Chart similar to GBP/USD.  AUD/USD closed at 0.9360 on Friday.

Resistance: 0.9467 (Friday High)
Current Support: 0.9350
Support: 0.9185 (Fibo + EMA20 on Day Chart)

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 0.9410-450 with SL > Friday high 0.9470.
My initial target is 0.9350, followed by 0.9185.

1 comment:

  1. My GBP/USD short 1.5690 is a good position.. but the FOMC statement drives me nuts and I cancelled this order. :(
    nevermind I queue to short today at 1.5700, SL 1.5740. Current Resistance GBP/USD 1.5725.