Monday, September 27, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)


(Reuters) - Further gains in the yen should be stopped and Japan will maintain close coordination with the United States and European Union if it intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb its currency's rise, Japan's foreign minister was quoted as saying.

After BOJ intevention, USD/JPY has up up up from bottom of 82.88.
However, for the past 1 week, USD/JPY has been falling in small range with high (X) at 85.94.

Technically, we are looking at the possibility that USD/JPY to continue to test 83.00 region with resistance kept at 85.00 region. Falling below 83.00 will lead to 82.13 (2L).

With Yen currently trading at 84.20, I aim to short USD/JPY when it is trading at 85.00 region with SL 30 pips away.


For PowerWave traders, you will spot a inner wave up from 1.5292, with GBP/USD trading near WTP 1.5820 (2L) coincide 1.5850 (80% retracement from 1.5998).

So, what's next?

If GBP/USD can sustain at 1.5820 and continue to trade above 1.5850, there's a high possibility that GBP/USD will continue to head up to test 1.6000 and form a double top.

Strong Resistance 1.60.
(1) Break above 1.5850 -> 1.6000 Double Top

We shall observe the price action when GBP/USD has trading near 1.5850, even though I think it is less likely to happen now, if:
(2) GBP/USD Resisted at 1.5850 and turn down + a nice candlestick reversal pattern.
If price break below current support 1.5750, and the day candle closed below 1.5700, then I am looking at the next support: 1.5580. I will undoubtedly hunt for shorts for the down fall to 1.52... :)

Aggresive Long Traders: Long at 1.5740, SL 1.5700, TG 1.5850, TG2: 1.5950-1.60.


AUD/USD Closed at 0.9588 last Friday.

It has break so many resistance level and the up trend is pretty well supported by EMA20 on 4 Hour Chart last week.

Stochastic Oscillator is neither high or low, since it has hit the 3L extension, I suspect AUD/USD to consolidate Monday and Tuesday, I aim to capture a Long at 0.9520 with SL 30 pips away.

This pair is likely to continue its uptrend, with a strong resistance at July-08 High of 0.9850.
Breaking above this high I suspect it will move towards 0.9915.

Generally, market is bullish~ Trade with Trend, or wait patiently for *clear* reversal for shorts.
Quote from my Sifu DAR on today's update on Gold:
patience..patience! that's the only way to survive in mkt!
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