Sunday, September 29, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 30-Sep-2013

Last trading day for September month.

Image source: http://money.cnn.com
Read their article on: Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling is like my credit card credit limit.
So now I am the biggest consumer and the biggest client for this merchant bank, I make purchases, I stimulate businesses, I ask for anything I want, I give them businesses...
When I can't pay, I ask the bank to increase my credit limit and enjoy the 'free credit' without thinking of the consequences, nor thinking about my capability to pay.

For the debt ceiling of USD$16.699 trillion.
How many times could I expect the 'bank' increases great America their credit limit?
Where actually the money go?
Number of job is increasing, average wage isn't rising, where has 85 billion gone, back to the banks?

Technical Forecast
DJIA

Market is bearish, it shows tiny little support last week and the resistance has shifted from 15550 pts down to 15350 pts.

15188 pts is within reach just early of next week.

I have not been trading real cash for sometime.
I have the urge to trade live already... so far this year the trades were good, till date 10% capital growth is manageable,
10% is not an encouraging number to a lot of traders out there - I still see 'schools' claiming 100%  (or more!) returns - I just don't know how they make it.
I am worried that I would end up losing my discipline again.


Nasdaq 100

Last week was a volatile week for Nasdaq 100
My forecast is totally wrong.

Trader Alex Siew (check my blogroll) said: if DJIA has been falling and Nasdaq 100 is been rising, must be "boh ho kang tau" (hokkien, implies something fishy is coming up).

Technically, Nasdaq 100 shall continue trading sideways in narrow range within 3205 - 3245 bias up (though I am strong bear for DJIA).
Current Support 3218 pts.

However, if DJIA and Nasdaq 100 is co-related, once DJIA plunge below 15150 pts, I expect Nasdaq 100 to follow suit, breaking below 3204 and then sink to 3180 pts.
Otherwise, breaking above 3245 pts, next target 3260 pts.

This seem contradicting and I hope market to teach me more of their co-relations between Nasdaq 100 and DJIA.


Cheers
Ayumi

5 comments:

  1. The problem with the debt ceiling is that it needs to be raised not to make "new" purchases or expenditures, but to pay the bills that were already promised. An analogy would be paying all your bills on your credit card after making the agreed purchases, and then realizing that you need a larger credit line to continue to make payments and not go into default.

    So raising the ceiling allows the current bills to be paid as opposed to triggering new spending. The solution is to discuss ways to cut back during budget meetings rather than address it at the back end with the need to raise the ceiling.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi there Ayumi! Is there a way for me to reach you through email?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Michael you can reach me at AyumiTrader@gmail.com

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  3. Hi Ayumi,

    Just want to say 'hi' to you. Hope all is well.
    Keep the good analysis and courage to trade the real cash as well
    as to maintain sound self discipline in trading.

    Cheers,
    Ivan

    ReplyDelete
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