GBP/USD on 14-Aug-2014

Again, we witnessed EMA50 in 4 hour chart...

Unfortunately I am in bed...
I recall the most frequent sentence:

what you do when you are right, and what action you take when you are wrong.

It matters so much.

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

for the week starting 11 Aug 2014

GBP/USD

Daily Chart bearish sentiment continues.
It has break two support level I quoted, and currently trading around 1.6770.

Dow theory - lower high, lower low.
find opportunity to short, final support at 1.6690.

Trading Plan
Initial Shadow
Short 1.6785
SL 20 pips
TG 60 pips

EUR/USD

slight bearish.
Trading at resistance level (4H chart).

I foresee market to trade sideways between 1.3340 - 1.3450.

Breaking above 1.3450 might turn EUR/USD from slight bearish to slight bullish sentiment.
Weekly Chart is suggesting a reversal pattern.

Regards
Ayumi

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

3 Majors and Gold

EUR/USD

Market move in favour, our Short at 1.3570 is not hit, highest EUR/USD go is 1.3557 (13 pips different) and reached our target 1.3430 and rebound, lowest EUR/USD go is 1.3426.

For position trade, still favour market to continue its downward movement to 1.3380 for the week, before a clear rebound to happen, favour to wait patiently for EUR/USD to come to R2: 1.3620 to pick a short position.

For today, stay out from EUR/USD.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading in small range of 100 pips (1.5950 - 1.6050), will only be interested when GBP/USD trade to channel top 1.6100-6150 region, or strong resistance 1.6280.  Stay out.
Refer to my weekly forecast for more details.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY didn't come to our entry price, yesterday, USD/JPY started the week at 83.45 and trading down to 83.07, rebounded to opening price and consolidate.  USD/JPY is trading at 83.26 now.

It is risky to trade in the middle of the range, we might get killed up or down... :)
Stay out until market trade near the extreme top, place short near top of the range 83.50-83.60 SL 83.80 TG 82.80.

Gold

Sifu has covered a EMA50 strategy on universal instrument, and although Gold didn't trade to 1350, meaning it didn't come to our entry price like what we specified in our forecast, but capture Gold at opening and closed yesterday will result a minimum 6 pts profit.

Gold is trading at 1363 now and very near to the current resistance 1368, if Gold can breakout higher, next target 1382.

Aggressive Long 1357 SL 1353 (yesterday low) TG 1365-68.
Some traders may want to turn short at 1368, therefore, it will have a lot of price action when Gold is there, stay alert.

Related: Gold on 14-Feb-2011
Related: Weekly Forecast (FX) for 14-Feb-2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Bias Down.
Target for the Week: 1.3430
R2: 1.3620
R1: 1.3570
S1: 1.3430
S2: 1.3250
Intraday trade for Monday: Short 1.3570 SL 1.3620 TG 1.3430 (by EOD).
Need to close this trade by End of Day (EOD) because EUR/USD may also pull up to 1.3620 (observe recent 3 weekly long candle with short body).

GBP/USD

Weekly Chart shows Strong Resistance = 1.6280.
Current trading range is not normal for GBP/USD, this market may trade in range 1.6100 - 1.5850 bias down to test support.
Upon breakout to the downside, expect strong support at 1.5650.
breakout to the upside, expect GBP/USD challenge double top 1.6280.

Do not like to trade in consolidation. Stay out.

USD/JPY

Intraday trending up, with strong resistance at 84.00-84.50 region.
Expect correction to continue, minor support 82.85-82.65.
Support 81.75.

Intraday trade for Monday and consider shorting USD/JPY at 83.60 SL 83.80 TG 82.80.

Charting by Broco Trader (MetaQuotes Software Corp)

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD
GBP/USD trading near main resistance 1.5909, if GBP/USD break above this level, then it may probably extend another 150 pips towards 1.6050.
If current resistance 1.5909 hold tight, minor support 1.5780, 1.57, major support at 1.5650.

Prefer trading short now, observe development of reversal pattern at current high (1.5886) or 1.6050 region.

EUR/USD
Recent high 1.3455, and and 1.3496 (Dec-2010) present a good opportunity to short.
breaking above this high means EUR/USD will rally towards 1.3620.
My preference is to the downside, pick short around 1.3450.
If formed a reversal pattern at current high, expect minor support at 1.3250, 1.3150.

Updates

Hi all, I do not have much time for a full posting today, before I go off, I wished to post some quick updates on some major currency and Gold.

EUR/USD

Trading near to resistance level, hopefully market continue to retrace, remain same view, only to pick short at key resistance level 1.3050.

Related Post: Weekly forecast (FX)

USD/JPY
Position open on USD/JPY.
Long 82.80 SL 82.50 TG 84.50

DJIA

2308 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks mixed, hurt by telecommunication companies as investors mulled the impact of the expected launch of Apple''s iPhone for Verizon and as worries mounted over the health of the euro-zone economy. Sprint Nextel fell 2.1% and AT&T shed 1.8% in the wake of confirmation over the weekend that Verizon Wireless will officially announce Tuesday that it will carry Apple''s iPhone, which initially had only been available on the AT&T network. Dupont fell 1.5%, after agreeing to acquire Denmark''s Danisco in a $6.3 billion deal. Investors said the market''s pullback was a natural reaction after its climb in the last quarter of 2010 stretched into last week. Portfolio managers also are waiting for earnings reports to revise their outlooks and see which sectors are poised to do well in the new year. "Earnings in the first half of the year should be pretty good. I''m concerned a little bit about the second half," said Richard Sherry, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management. "Companies have been doing a good job of managing costs, but as we go through the year it will become more difficult," as investors watch to see which companies are exhibiting growth, he said. DJIA down 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly semicons +1.0%. (by: rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)

Link: Dow Jones NewsPlus

Gold

Gold is also trading upward and trading near our favourite resistance level, remember we favour 1382-85, and 1391-1400.

Related: Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Although we forecast market to retrace (go up), but don't you see that I do not trade Long?

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Bear in play.
Expect a little bit of retracement to pick short @ Resistance 1.3050.
Monday can practise initial shadow for short entry near 1.2940, SL 1.2980, TG 1.2800.
For position trade, short at 1.3050, SL 1.31 (-50 pips), TG 1.2600 (+350 pips).

Beware of Thursday announcement.
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 20:45 (GMT+8) EUR - minimum bid rate
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 21:30 (GMT+8) EUR - ECB press conference

GBP/USD

Favourite pair.  Consolidating in big swing.
Suspect GBP/USD to trade in range before any meaningful breakout is spotted.  Range for the week before breakout: 1.5650 - 1.5400.

Breaking above 1.5700, GBP/USD may find another resistance level near 1.5800, so SL must be set tight.

My preference is to the downside, therefore, picking short near key resistance level at 1.5650 is preferred, with my downside target at 1.5300, and 1.5100 in Feb-11.

My position trade would to short at 1.5660, SL 1.5700 (-40 pips), TG 1.5300 (+360 pips).

USD/JPY

Higher and higher, resistance 84.50, 85.90.
Support 82.83, 82.30.
Find good long opportunity near 82.80 or 82.30 region, SL 30 pips, TG at resistance level.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

A trader with no idea of the price locality in a market trend will naturally has no idea of cut-loss point for his existing position.

Most (new) traders play the game with greed of wanting fast monies but not aware of unlimited losses if sit in adverse trend.  Thus, trading becomes a wager.

New traders always prefer to hit an instant entry when market moves.  This is even worst when market swings or u-turns that shatter them.

*** Never let the market trend runs against you randomly by setting your maximum risk tolerannce. ***

I was once confused how can one of the respected coach maintain his stop loss at 30 pips or maximum 40 pips away?

I checked my trading record, and I found that I have many trading plans that have maximum risk tolerance nowadays.

for FX 40 to 50 pips, for indices, 100 points.

And I come to realise that --- I thought I am good, but somehow, *shy* I am ignorant... Why doubt while the masters can do it? *Bow* to the masters and coaches.
We can make it, we can always target to initiate our entry from top regions / or from bottom regions of a trend, sharpen our entries is the clue.

Don't let greed and fear affect my decision.
If market just did not come to my price, just let it be, tomorrow will be another day.
If tomorrow I still cannot get my entry, just let it be - this shows that my forecast of market trend is correct!

(you know who said this?  Answer: My all time favourite mentor JC said this! during a mindset tuning session with another full time trader)

I just need to be patient, to sharpen my entry, my stop loss, and my target price.

I just need to.

You are right, but you just cannot make the money for yourself, yet.
The time will come.  We just need to work harder.

================================

Major Currency - USD/JPY
Close: 84.08

Monthly Candle: Bullish Engulfing Pattern from Bottom 80.24.
Weekly Candle: continuous of 4 weekly candle going up and up!
Daily Candle: Bullish!

Pick reversal to enter Long: Entry near 83.55. SL 30 pips,
or Short near top region 84.50 - 84.80.

EUR/USD
Close: 1.3237

EUR/USD has just completed the whole trapezium and the result is soooooo amazing!
+700 pips profit.
Dear associates, remember to practice and back test and do it again and again.

You miss this, but don't miss the next.

Now EUR/USD has traveled to the next Trapezium Z1 line.
Successfully close below this Z1 line (1.3180) would mean we can prepare to Sell.

Down Trend is obvious, short when market retraces, or practice initial shadow entry to short.

R2: 1.3580
R1: 1.3380
S1: 1.3180
S2: 1.2980

GBP/USD
Close: 1.5587

Falling knife.
Falling knife.

Trading near its EMA200 on Daily Chart, Ayumi suspects the market to do some consolidation in the coming week, trading range around 1.5550 - 1.5880.

Will only short when market trade near 1.5880, Target at 1.5400 region.
Avoid trading this pair for the moment.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Closing: 1.3682

Smaller time frame:
Immediate resistance: 1.3730, forecast market going up on Monday.
will create a double top, if support: 1.3641 can hold,
EUR/USD tend to consolidate and break higher.
TG: 1.3870
TG2: 1.4000

However, breaking below 1.3641 will go to:
S2: 1.3585
S3: 1.3460

Intraday Trading Plan on EUR/USD, 23-11-2010 (Mon)
Long Entry: 1.3630
SL 1.3590
TG 1.3760

GBP/USD

Closing: 1.5982

Weekly candle on GBP/USD suggested a reversal.
Daily candle shows that GBP/USD may still have some room to go higher before turning down.

Favour to pick short on GBP/USD near triple top 1.6190 (4 hour chart) for the week.
On Monday, forecast market to go up, support @ 1.5935.

Intraday Trading Plan on GBP/USD, 23-11-2010 (Mon)
Long Entry: 1.5949
SL: 1.5894
TG: 1.6090
TG2: 1.6190

Weekly Forecast (FX)

for 15-Nov-2010 (Mon)

EUR/USD

Market has move in favour, however, I didn't get my Short entry of 1.4180, high of this week is 1.4084 only.
However, for traders who practice initial shadow entry, this is a very good method if you practice for 5 trading days.

Monday: Short 1.4073, close at 1.3917 (day range) + 156 pips
Tuesday: Short 1.3956, close at 1.3800 (day range) + 156 pips
Wednesday: Short 1.3807, close at 1.3780 (EOD) + 27 pips
Thursday: Short 1.3817, close at  1.3670 (EOD) +147 pips
Friday: Short 1.3703, Triggered SL 1.3767 (High 1.3776) -64 pips

This backtest is run on Russian Hour (GMT+1), taking opening and closing price as Broco Trader, MT4 Platform.
I am proud with the result. Result: +422 pips

For those who wants to learn Initial Shadow entry, and learn how to use multiple trading method to enter and make unlimited profit from the market, contact APSRI Traders.  I am always proud to say that DAR Wong is my Sifu and Mentor JC has been the best-est mentor to guide me on my trading journey.

What's Next for EUR/USD?

Friday Closing: 1.3689

R2: 1.3930

R1: 1.3810

S1: 1.3460

S2: 1.3334

Pressure to send EUR/USD down!

Market has showed us sign of consolidation, early next week expect consolidation to continue so best to place your short at R1, if market has moved higher, next level to short is 1.3930. Profit Target at S1: 1.3460, followed by 1.3334.

GBP/USD

It was a Swing Swing week on GBP/USD.
It has broke below 1.6150, close at 1.6111 for the week, but market continue to swing in 1.6200 - 1.5950.

Clue 1:

GBP/USD found support at 1.5949, 1.5983.

Zoom into 4 hour chart, without breaking below 1.5950, and break triple top 1.6185, GBP/USD will travel higher to break 1.6295 and eventually hit my target 1.6350 then 1.6450.

Same as previous week, stay out and waiting for correction phase to end.

Remember mentor JC said: Trading the Extension Wave! it is most profitable and stress free.

USD/JPY

Remember I said to Long when EMA4 + EMA20 cross?
It has happened and I am looking forward for USD/JPY to come out from the down trend.

Fighting to break above the resistance, fighting to break away from the down trend is a long journey + not easy.
I am very happy for the market to make another white candle on the Weekly Chart :)

I think Friday low of 81.63 has killed many traders who wished to Long.
For me to always wanted to long at 81.50, I didn't get my entry too.

Resistance: 82.80
Support: 81.50

Breaking above 82.80, USD/JPY is gonna head to my target price of
TG1: 83.15
TG2: 84.50

Failing to do so, it would come back to 81.50 as well as 80.50.
Strong support 80.20.


Related Post: 

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Back to Ayumi Trader Blog, click here: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/
Last week's forecast: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2010/11/weekly-forecast-fx.html

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Technically, we saw a bearish engulfing pattern in Daily Chart on EUR/USD and current high of 1.4282 marked as a good resistance level.

Friday Closing: 1.4030
Strong Resistance: 1.4282
Current Resistance: 1.4249
Potential Support: 1.4000
Next Support: 1.3860

If we employ Fibonacci retracement theory, we can find that it is a good level to short if we are going to place our short at 1.4140 region, SL 1.4180, TG at 1.4000 potential support.  If you want to play safe, you can either short at 1.4200 region with your SL placed at current resistance level of 1.4250 (personally I think it is a bit too far but who cares if you do not get an entry today, tomorrow is another new day).


GBP/USD

Harami pattern, Stochastic Cross at 87 region, with GBP/USD formed a reversal on Day chart, without hitting my target 1.6350, what am I going to do?

Highest 1.6295 on Thursday.

I believe this pair would face a few days of downward pressure, and waiting for Tuesday news release on Manufacturing Production m/m at 5.30pm (GMT+8).

Breaking below 1.6150 confirms the downturn, lead to first target 1.6000 then 1.5650.
Next, without breaking 1.6000, and reverse, then this pair might have potential to hit higher :) continue to drive north and go towards 1.6350.

Ayumi stay out.


USD/JPY

This week Lowest (1-Nov-2010): 80.30
This week Highest (4-Nov-2010) : 81.58
Closing on Friday (5-11-2010): 81.26

Quite positive on USD/JPY pair.  Bullish Engulfing Pattern at the bottom of the chart.
Bearish trend in USD/JPY is very obvious too.

Travel in consolidation, no direction in this currency pair, if you employ EMA4 and EMA20 trading method, you need to be patient, we are going to trade if USD/JPY breaks above 81.60 or 82.00.

Failing to break above these 2 levels, this pair is going to fall to 79.80 region --- Lowest level since April 1995.

Ayumi Waiting patiently.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
Friday closing: 1.3939

Finally EUR/USD has break above 1.4000 and recorded a high at 1.4029.
We do not have much news release next week, from last Thursday & Friday candlestick pattern, suspect the market to be consolidating in this week within 1.3850 - 1.4050.

Favour to Short, Trading Plan: wait patiently for clear reversals near 1.4000-50 region.

Intraday Fibo Range: 1.3760 - 1.4025

GBP/USD
Friday closing: 1.5957

GBP/USD has break above 1.6000 and recorded a high at 1.6014, it failed to close above 1.6000 and closed the Thursday candle with a reversal pattern.

Current Resistance: 1.6014 (Thursday High)

Favour to Short when GBP/USD travels to 1.5975 region, SL at Thursday High.
If GBP/USD has break above current resistance and closed beyond 1.6000, it may hit 3L 1.6060.

Intraday Fibo Range: 1.5993 - 1.5778


USD/JPY
Friday Closing: 81.92

Trending down.  Looking at this pair to continue to head south, to 80.00 region if there's no intervention from the government.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
Friday closing: 1.3790

Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart shows bullishness, EUR/USD close at 1.3790 for the week.
I am looking at EUR/USD to rally to 1.4020-50 in coming week, so long as the support 1.3500-50 region can hold.

This pair already trade above 50% retracement, will it test another level above?

Resistance (Fibo) = 1.4020-50
observe for reversal sign to enter short when it reach this level.

My trading Plan:

Long EUR/USD

Entry 1.3590

SL 1.3550 (hammer on 30 mins chart)

TG1 1.3700 (+110 pips)

TG2 1.3820-50 (+230 pips)


GBP/USD
Friday Closing: 1.5815

This pair has been swinging up and down, it takes a lot of patience to trade this pair, I have been waiting for days for an entry, and I only aim for 100-150pips for intraday trading.

there's once quick trade on GBP/USD which I find interesting.  I have shorted at the antenna top when GBP/USD trading at high 1.5910 region, got killed at the 3rd bar (high 920), and then market moves in favour, ride through this short term trading strategy (Short 1.5909 - Close 1.5816), traders would have made for 100 pips profit.

Strong Resistance 1.6000

Resistance 1.5920

Resistance 1.5870

Support 1.5700-660

Strong Support 1.5600

From the chart pattern, GBP/USD has found a good support level at 1.5660 region.  It may continue the consolidation for the following week and test 1.60 high.

There're two possibilities:
1) GBP/USD being resisted at 1.5900 and start trading down to 1.5700, or further down to test 1.5610 region (EMA200 on 4 Hour).
2) GBP/USD to continue to consolidate in range of 250 pips bias up to test double top 1.6000.

I suggest to stay out.


AUD/USD
Friday Closing: 0.9725

Who loves to trade AUD/USD?  =)

Trend is clear.  Making new high everyday.
Extension wave is beautiful.

Current Resistance: 0.9750
Support: 0.9650
Strong Support: 0.9620

It almost created a divergence on Day Chart, but no, rally is not over yet, with current bullish trend, it may head up to test 2008 High 0.9850.  Which is only another 125 pips ahead.

With current resistance at 0.9750, hopefully AUD/USD can make little bit of swing down to 0.9700-0.9650, good to plant your long and ride with the trend until it break above 0.9750 to reach 0.9800-0.9850.

My Trading Plan:
Long AUD/USD
Entry: 0.9690
SL: 0.9650 (-40 pips)
TG: 0.9810 (+120 pips)

Weekly Forecast (FX)

USD/JPY

(Reuters) - Further gains in the yen should be stopped and Japan will maintain close coordination with the United States and European Union if it intervenes in the foreign exchange market to curb its currency's rise, Japan's foreign minister was quoted as saying.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68O06K20100925

After BOJ intevention, USD/JPY has up up up from bottom of 82.88.
However, for the past 1 week, USD/JPY has been falling in small range with high (X) at 85.94.

Technically, we are looking at the possibility that USD/JPY to continue to test 83.00 region with resistance kept at 85.00 region. Falling below 83.00 will lead to 82.13 (2L).

With Yen currently trading at 84.20, I aim to short USD/JPY when it is trading at 85.00 region with SL 30 pips away.

GBP/USD

For PowerWave traders, you will spot a inner wave up from 1.5292, with GBP/USD trading near WTP 1.5820 (2L) coincide 1.5850 (80% retracement from 1.5998).

So, what's next?

If GBP/USD can sustain at 1.5820 and continue to trade above 1.5850, there's a high possibility that GBP/USD will continue to head up to test 1.6000 and form a double top.

Strong Resistance 1.60.
(1) Break above 1.5850 -> 1.6000 Double Top

We shall observe the price action when GBP/USD has trading near 1.5850, even though I think it is less likely to happen now, if:
(2) GBP/USD Resisted at 1.5850 and turn down + a nice candlestick reversal pattern.
If price break below current support 1.5750, and the day candle closed below 1.5700, then I am looking at the next support: 1.5580. I will undoubtedly hunt for shorts for the down fall to 1.52... :)

Aggresive Long Traders: Long at 1.5740, SL 1.5700, TG 1.5850, TG2: 1.5950-1.60.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Closed at 0.9588 last Friday.

It has break so many resistance level and the up trend is pretty well supported by EMA20 on 4 Hour Chart last week.

Stochastic Oscillator is neither high or low, since it has hit the 3L extension, I suspect AUD/USD to consolidate Monday and Tuesday, I aim to capture a Long at 0.9520 with SL 30 pips away.

This pair is likely to continue its uptrend, with a strong resistance at July-08 High of 0.9850.
Breaking above this high I suspect it will move towards 0.9915.

Generally, market is bullish~ Trade with Trend, or wait patiently for *clear* reversal for shorts.
Quote from my Sifu DAR on today's update on Gold:

patience..patience! that's the only way to survive in mkt!

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Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

For those who followed my previous week forecast, you will find that market has moved in favour, hit my first target 1.3300, and trading very closely to target 2: 1.3510.
Ayumi is happy bcz Ayumi forecast and market movement is similar!  It is only Ayumi didn't get her entry, cuz Ayumi queue at low low price.

Traders can chase the market, just hit and go~~~ but Ayumi didn't... can't believe, where's my chase market attitute?

So, market is moving closely to my second target 1.3510.  In which i think EUR/USD is a bit tricky to trade now, I prefer to trade in small range 100 pips - 200 pips, than to aim for 200-400 pips on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD closed at 1.3486 on Friday.

The trend is bullish. Resistance 1.3530.

If, EUR/USD has break above 1.3530, and closed above 1.3550, i will consider to enter long, with my initial target at 1.3750, followed by TG2 1.4000.

Related: Weekly Forecast (FX) for 2010-09-20: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2010/09/weekly-forecast-fx_20.html

Weekly Forecast (FX)

USD/JPY

NEW YORK | Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:11pm EDT
(Reuters) - The euro fell on Friday as European debt worries and weak U.S. consumer data enhanced the dollar's safe-haven appeal, while fear of Japanese intervention kept the yen near a one-month low against the U.S. currency. -By Steven C. Johnson-

USD/JPY has formed a bullish reversal signal from the bottom 82.88 on 15/9/2010, applies to weekly, daily, intraday charts.
Friday closing 85.85.

Strong Resistance: 88.00 (Fibo Retracement)
Resistance: 86.20 (Fibo Retracement)
Current Resistance: 85.95
Current Support: 85.20
Support: 84.50

No clear sign trading this pair, will observe for higher probability trades.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD also formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

From Daily chart, Doji candlestick at 1.2645 act as the strong support now, 1.2645 on 10/9/10. EUR/USD close at 1.3054 on last Friday 17/9/2010.

I am expecting EUR/USD to hit higher, my first target is to hit 1.3307 - resistance level.

Resistance: 1.3307 (previous high + innerwave 2L)
Current Resistance: 1.3160 (friday high + EMA200 on Daily Chart)

Do not rush into market yet, you can observe a reversal at 1.3158 on 4-hour chart, last Friday, I suspect EUR/USD to come down to 1.2930-900 region before continue to retrace higher.

hunt for good Long entry at 1.2930-900 region, if market break above 1.3160, we are expecting the market to teach TG1 at 1.33, and possibly 1.3510.

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.5725 (Friday High)
Current Support: 1.5535 (Hammer on 4H Chart, Low on 16/9/10)
Support: 1.5440 (EMA200 on Daily Chart)

GBP/USD has a nice reversal pattern on Weekly Chart, however, the shooting star pattern on Friday shall pull GBP/USD down and I am looking at it to fall to 1.5440.

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 1.5670-1.5700 with SL > Friday high 1.5730.
My initial target is 1.5535, followed by 1.5440.


AUD/USD


AUD/USD has hit my target 0.9350 and even went higher > 0.9450 and also formed a strong candlestick reversal pattern on Day Chart similar to GBP/USD.  AUD/USD closed at 0.9360 on Friday.

Resistance: 0.9467 (Friday High)
Current Support: 0.9350
Support: 0.9185 (Fibo + EMA20 on Day Chart)

For this week, I prefer to go Short at 0.9410-450 with SL > Friday high 0.9470.
My initial target is 0.9350, followed by 0.9185.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

I spotted pattern in EUR/USD that I wished to trade next week.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sept. 7 that European stress tests for banks understated some holdings of sovereign debt in the wake of Greece’s budget crisis. Irish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached record highs versus benchmark German bunds based on concern European banks are vulnerable to losses on their holdings of peripheral euro-region debt.

Greece faces a “substantial” default risk when its bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said yesterday. Greece may need to extend a 110-billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

Source: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVyns8NXqz7Q

Due to the return of fear of Greece's sovereign debt crisis, I would regard this week's high of 1.2918 act as a resistance.

There's not much critical figure release next week on Euro, I suspect the range to be small next week. However, I would position my short entry when market come up to 1.2730 - 1.2750 region.

If EUR/USD has break and closed below 1.2580, I am expecting EUR/USD to continue the fall to 1.2170.

Strong Resistance: 1.2920
Resistance: 1.2750 (Pincer Top)
Support: 1.2580

Trading Plan (Intraday):
Short 1.2730 (1/3 of weekly candle)
SL 1.2770 (40 pips)
Exit 1.2600 (130 pips)

I would monitor EUR/USD when it comes to 1.2580 region to decide my next entry.


GBP/USD

GBP/USD is now trading in a range of 1.5500 - 1.5300.

My trading plan would be to execute orders at the extreme ends, prefer to short.

I suspect GBP/USD to go up on Monday, so it is a good opportunity to capture initial shadow and plant your shorts.
For those who attended Professional TA from sifu DAR, check 1 hour chart, you can see a pattern that support my view.

If market has break and closed below 1.5300, GBP/USD may continue to dive down to 1.5170 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Short 1.5410 (1/2 of weekly candle)
SL 1.5450 (40 pips)
TG 1.5300 (110 pips)

Trading Plan (Days)
Short 1.5500
SL 1.5540 (40 pips)
TG1 1.5300 (200 pips)
TG2 1.5170 (330 pips)


AUD/USD

It has been a bull run since end of August 2010 in AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has break above the previous high 0.9220 without looking back.
Temporary resistance 0.9280
I am looking at AUD/USD to continue to rally to test the historical resistance at 0.9350 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Long 0.9185 (50% of weekly candle)
SL 0.9155 (30 pips)
TG1 0.9280 (95 pips)
TG2 0.9350 (165 pips)

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is now resisted at my target 1.2900 region.

For those who are using oscillator, you will see a divergence formed in EUR/USD 30 minutes chart.
Trading Plan [Short Term]: During market opens, short near 1.2890 high and target at 1.2800.

I am looking at EUR/USD to continue to corrective upwave to 1.3000 region.
Trading Plan [Trend Trading]:
Long EUR/USD at 1.2800
SL 1.2760 (40 pips)
TG 1.2950 (150 pips)

GBP/USD

Resistance 1.5580
Current Resistance 1.5480
Current Support 1.5330
Support 1.5150

Zoom into 4 Hour chart you will double pincer top at 1.5467, this level should act as a temporary resistance.

Trading Plan [Short Term, expired by 8pm (GMT+8)]:
Short at 1.5450, SL 1.5480, TG 1.5380

Trading Plan [2-3 days]:
Long GBP/USD at 1.5350
SL 1.5310 (40 pips)
TG1 1.5580 (230 pips)
TG2 1.5680 (50% Fibo retracement from 6 Aug 08 High)

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Market has formed a reversal at 1.2586 on 24/8/2010 (Tuesday) and closed at 1.2760 on Friday.
Since I have missed the entry during reversal, I only plan to enter intraday trades with tight risk management.

If you zoom into 30 mins chart, you can see a divergence and hopefully the market can come down to 1.2680 region for my Long entry.  I do not want to short as I feel insecure to trade counter trend now.

My Trading Plan:

1. Long at 1.2680-650 (Fibo retracement),
   SL 1.2600 (Current Support), TG: 1.2900
2. Intraday Long at 1.2626 (Fibo Range),
   SL 1.2586 (-40 pips), TG 1.2800.

GBP/USD

The correction from the top of 1.5997 is not significant, in fact, I am waiting for this pair to come to 1.5100 region.

Strong Reversal spotted at 1.5370.

From Weekly and Daily Chart, we can see that this pair has formed a reversal signal, you can also see a pincer bottom at 4 Hour Chart.

Trading Plan for Intraday only:

1. Intraday Long 1.5400
   SL 1.5370 (-30 pips), TG 1.5590 (+190)
2. Intraday Short 1.5599
   SL 1.5620 (-21 pips), TG 1.5450 (+149).

AUD/USD

AUD/USD made a strong bounce up and close at 0.8986 on Friday, biggest gain this month.

 

Strong Resistance: 0.9080

Resistance: 0.9020

Support: 0.8870

Strong Support: 0.8770

My Trading Plan for coming week:

1. Short 0.9020
   SL 0.9050, TG 0.8870.
2. Long 0.8870
   SL 0.8840, TG 0.8990