Saturday, September 11, 2010

Weekly Forecast (FX)


I spotted pattern in EUR/USD that I wished to trade next week.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sept. 7 that European stress tests for banks understated some holdings of sovereign debt in the wake of Greece’s budget crisis. Irish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached record highs versus benchmark German bunds based on concern European banks are vulnerable to losses on their holdings of peripheral euro-region debt.

Greece faces a “substantial” default risk when its bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said yesterday. Greece may need to extend a 110-billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.


Due to the return of fear of Greece's sovereign debt crisis, I would regard this week's high of 1.2918 act as a resistance.

There's not much critical figure release next week on Euro, I suspect the range to be small next week. However, I would position my short entry when market come up to 1.2730 - 1.2750 region.

If EUR/USD has break and closed below 1.2580, I am expecting EUR/USD to continue the fall to 1.2170.

Strong Resistance: 1.2920
Resistance: 1.2750 (Pincer Top)
Support: 1.2580

Trading Plan (Intraday):
Short 1.2730 (1/3 of weekly candle)
SL 1.2770 (40 pips)
Exit 1.2600 (130 pips)

I would monitor EUR/USD when it comes to 1.2580 region to decide my next entry.


GBP/USD is now trading in a range of 1.5500 - 1.5300.

My trading plan would be to execute orders at the extreme ends, prefer to short.

I suspect GBP/USD to go up on Monday, so it is a good opportunity to capture initial shadow and plant your shorts.
For those who attended Professional TA from sifu DAR, check 1 hour chart, you can see a pattern that support my view.

If market has break and closed below 1.5300, GBP/USD may continue to dive down to 1.5170 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Short 1.5410 (1/2 of weekly candle)
SL 1.5450 (40 pips)
TG 1.5300 (110 pips)

Trading Plan (Days)
Short 1.5500
SL 1.5540 (40 pips)
TG1 1.5300 (200 pips)
TG2 1.5170 (330 pips)


It has been a bull run since end of August 2010 in AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has break above the previous high 0.9220 without looking back.
Temporary resistance 0.9280
I am looking at AUD/USD to continue to rally to test the historical resistance at 0.9350 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Long 0.9185 (50% of weekly candle)
SL 0.9155 (30 pips)
TG1 0.9280 (95 pips)
TG2 0.9350 (165 pips)


  1. great job on the audusd. 0.9359 region is setting up to be a butterfly in harmonic terms.
    from kumofx

  2. just put up the chart for you.

  3. staying out of eurusd and gbpusd until things are clearer. however leaning towards bearish for gbp. support of other pairs like eurgbp and gbpchf....

  4. Hi KumoFX! Thanks a lot for the hardwork putting up the charts and pattern for us! It is very educational!

  5. Spotted divergence on EUR/USD.
    short at 1.2814, SL 1.2854, TG 1.2650