Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

I spotted pattern in EUR/USD that I wished to trade next week.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sept. 7 that European stress tests for banks understated some holdings of sovereign debt in the wake of Greece’s budget crisis. Irish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached record highs versus benchmark German bunds based on concern European banks are vulnerable to losses on their holdings of peripheral euro-region debt.

Greece faces a “substantial” default risk when its bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said yesterday. Greece may need to extend a 110-billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

Source: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVyns8NXqz7Q

Due to the return of fear of Greece's sovereign debt crisis, I would regard this week's high of 1.2918 act as a resistance.

There's not much critical figure release next week on Euro, I suspect the range to be small next week. However, I would position my short entry when market come up to 1.2730 - 1.2750 region.

If EUR/USD has break and closed below 1.2580, I am expecting EUR/USD to continue the fall to 1.2170.

Strong Resistance: 1.2920
Resistance: 1.2750 (Pincer Top)
Support: 1.2580

Trading Plan (Intraday):
Short 1.2730 (1/3 of weekly candle)
SL 1.2770 (40 pips)
Exit 1.2600 (130 pips)

I would monitor EUR/USD when it comes to 1.2580 region to decide my next entry.


GBP/USD

GBP/USD is now trading in a range of 1.5500 - 1.5300.

My trading plan would be to execute orders at the extreme ends, prefer to short.

I suspect GBP/USD to go up on Monday, so it is a good opportunity to capture initial shadow and plant your shorts.
For those who attended Professional TA from sifu DAR, check 1 hour chart, you can see a pattern that support my view.

If market has break and closed below 1.5300, GBP/USD may continue to dive down to 1.5170 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Short 1.5410 (1/2 of weekly candle)
SL 1.5450 (40 pips)
TG 1.5300 (110 pips)

Trading Plan (Days)
Short 1.5500
SL 1.5540 (40 pips)
TG1 1.5300 (200 pips)
TG2 1.5170 (330 pips)


AUD/USD

It has been a bull run since end of August 2010 in AUD/USD.

AUD/USD has break above the previous high 0.9220 without looking back.
Temporary resistance 0.9280
I am looking at AUD/USD to continue to rally to test the historical resistance at 0.9350 region.

Trading Plan (Intraday)
Long 0.9185 (50% of weekly candle)
SL 0.9155 (30 pips)
TG1 0.9280 (95 pips)
TG2 0.9350 (165 pips)