Demo vs Live Account

Have summarised Previous Week's Trade into my P&L.

Realised the Big difference between Demo Trades vs Live Trading.

Although my Live Trading Account has recovered to a comfortable level, but I am still figuring the challenge most traders face: changing their trading plans.

Demo trade, we simply don't care...

Live trade, we face the pressure of real money, although I am comfortable with my trade setup, but I am not yet comfortable with the $$$.

I get emotional and the blood starts to boil down to my nerves when the fundamentals hit, especially on 16-Mar-2011, the 2nd day after Japan Tsunami.

Still not able to get over.... but trying hard and digging deep to find out the answers.
Congratulate to myself - at least I know better now. Yes?

July/August-2011, I am coming.
I will become better, I will know myself better, I can manage myself better.

I will improve my setup consistency, I understand that no man is perfect, I will continue to work hard, to become better, to do my best.

Transaction

Gold

Short @ 1440 SL 1446 (-6 pts) TG 1414 (+25 pts)
Contract Size: 15
Initial Risk: SGD99.00 (Guaranteed Stop extra spread +-0.3)
Good till tomorrow noon 12pm (GMT+8)

Related: Weekly Forecast on Gold

EUR/USD

Working Order (Weekly Position):
Long @ 1.3850 SL 1.3880 (-30 pips) TG 1.4050 (+200 pips)
Good till Wednesday 4pm (GMT+8)

Aggressive intraday trade for Tuesday (8-Mar-2011):
Short @ 1.4020 SL 1.4040 (-20 pips) TG 1.3900 (+120 pips)
Contract Size: 1
Initial Risk: SGD28 (USD22)
Good till tomorrow 2pm (GMT+8)

Related: Weekly forecast on FX - EUR/USD

Gold and EUR/USD

Gold rose above $1411 and Silver $33.50 an ounce, weak US dollar boosted the demand for precious metals.

Technically, Gold has completed the 1/3 retracement (Low 1392) and set to go up higher target 1423.
the Breakout point is 1405.  Support 1394.

I didn't get my entry on Monday, market didn't come to 1385, lowest 1388 and rocket to TG1: 1395 within 2 days.  Today, intraday trade preference is to Long @ 1407.7 SL 1403 TG 1420 (EOD).

Related: Weekly Forecast on Gold


EUR/USD

My view for the week is to long on EUR/USD.
I entered two trades but were stopped out with minimum losses.


Quote my Weekly Forecast and Trade Setup:

Monday: Plan to Long when market comes to 1.3650, SL 1.3620, TG 1.3750
For the Week: Long at 1.3570, SL 1.3530, TG 1.3850 or close by End of Week, whichever come first.

-30 pips for intraday, -40 pips for weekly position.
and Market is trading up! as per the forecast, EUR/USD closed at 1.3750 (my first target).  Weekly Target remains at 1.3850.

Aggressive Trading Long @ 1.3716 SL 1.3680 (-36 pips) TG 1.3850 (EOD)

Personal preference is to trade EUR/USD for today.
I am yet to update for P&L for the week, will do it during weekends.

I have updated a New Blog Page
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Transaction (FX)

I want to short EUR/USD 1.3450
Short GBP/USD 1.6050

Will come to watch market at 8-9pm to decide my trading plan :)

Updates

Hi all, I do not have much time for a full posting today, before I go off, I wished to post some quick updates on some major currency and Gold.

EUR/USD

Trading near to resistance level, hopefully market continue to retrace, remain same view, only to pick short at key resistance level 1.3050.

Related Post: Weekly forecast (FX)

USD/JPY
Position open on USD/JPY.
Long 82.80 SL 82.50 TG 84.50

DJIA

2308 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks mixed, hurt by telecommunication companies as investors mulled the impact of the expected launch of Apple''s iPhone for Verizon and as worries mounted over the health of the euro-zone economy. Sprint Nextel fell 2.1% and AT&T shed 1.8% in the wake of confirmation over the weekend that Verizon Wireless will officially announce Tuesday that it will carry Apple''s iPhone, which initially had only been available on the AT&T network. Dupont fell 1.5%, after agreeing to acquire Denmark''s Danisco in a $6.3 billion deal. Investors said the market''s pullback was a natural reaction after its climb in the last quarter of 2010 stretched into last week. Portfolio managers also are waiting for earnings reports to revise their outlooks and see which sectors are poised to do well in the new year. "Earnings in the first half of the year should be pretty good. I''m concerned a little bit about the second half," said Richard Sherry, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management. "Companies have been doing a good job of managing costs, but as we go through the year it will become more difficult," as investors watch to see which companies are exhibiting growth, he said. DJIA down 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly semicons +1.0%. (by: rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)

Link: Dow Jones NewsPlus

Gold

Gold is also trading upward and trading near our favourite resistance level, remember we favour 1382-85, and 1391-1400.

Related: Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Although we forecast market to retrace (go up), but don't you see that I do not trade Long?

Comment from Mentor...

Related Post: Reflection

GBP/USD on 3-Jan-2011

Closed GBP/USD short position.

Good start 2011.

+210 pips.

:)

Related Post: Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD on 25-Dec-2010

Back to Ayumi Trader

Reflection

This thought came into my mind this morning...

Which time frame to trade?
If I am trading for the Day, I look into intraday chart - 30 minutes would be sufficient to get a good entry.
If I am trading for few Days, ditto.
in this case, a weekly chart would help to identify the trend and help to see the big picture.
monthly chart, seldom use, just a peek into it..

What if, I am going to be a 'hourly' trader?
Similarly, I can use Day chart to identify trend, 30 minutes to sharpen entry, and may be, even smaller time frame like 15 minutes?

Should get killed when mentor read this 15 minutes chart thing... >.<

Which style I am most comfortable with? and whether I am ok with it?

I am ok with the Day chart and 30 minutes chart nowadays, I wonder: Is that because I have less time to trade, therefore, I compromise?

hm....
Lets frame it with better words...
Ayumi has become flexible, and now trading in a bigger time frame...

What if, when I gain the total freedom again, that I can just sit in front of my Lappy and watch the candle blocks, one by one, every 30 minutes?

No matter what, how, which strategy we use, it must be our strategy, our style.
What is my style?  Flexible is my style.

I have been brought up by my cool mother, disciplined, loyal, business minded, stable, organised, and secured.
I have a even more cool father, he has a golden finger, that he can turn a bottle of red wine into a good money making opportunity, and can turn a broken motorbike into a spare part business...  According to mum, he can see opportunities through his naked eyes... making money from businesses is not a problem for him, networking and connection is just simply a born skill.

I think my father makes a good speculator, Ayumi deem myself a speculator in my blood; a stable, disciplined, organised personality in my mind...

I think this is how and why Ayumi present an unlimited potential... and I believe many others do, we just need to work hard, and polish...

4 days to new year, 1 month + 1 week to Chinese New Year...
work hard everyday, unlimited opportunities awaits...
work 1 step a day, and never stop... we may be slow, we may be fast, we are ''in progress''.

Good read, go and read this article from T. Harv Eker's Blog:
The Resolution That Lasts a Lifetime

Demo Feedback

After 2 weeks on Demo, I find myself trading at my comfort level again.

And I come to realize, the following:
1. I thought my analysis turned bad, but it is not.  I am better.
It is because I have shifted my focus to money.
What I wanted from trading, is money only, and I am just too focus on that, and I become addicted to trading.
2. Habitual Losses?
it is because i tried too hard to find a trade everyday, however, this everyday trading, is not my style.
3. How Long?  How Often?
I know my trade, but I do not know my personal style... and in fact, I thought I know myself well, but I don't.
and it turns out to be better trade, better days, nowadays...
4. How many?
I thought I need more market and more work so that I can practice and become better.  I started with 3 major, then I fall into AUD, NZD, Crude, DJIA, Gold... I believe the professional traders would know the answer.
2 weeks after my Demo, I concentrate on my favorite market, I find less mess, less opinions, less contradiction.  More time for other activities.  More clarity.

No reversal, no trade, no support, no resistance, no trade.
No price action, no pattern, no trade.
No familiar market, no trade.
and.. generally I prefer to Short, than to Long.

Related: [Demo Begins], [The Process]

Transactions (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.5800
SL 1.5840 (moved to entry) trading at 1.5736 now
TG 1.5720 (+120 pips)

Note: Average Day Range ≈ 120 pips

Initial shadow entry

Hiya~ the start of my Demo account, today is day two, so far, the result as follow:

Monday:
Long GBP/USD
Long EUR/USD
triggered SL.
Damage: -80 pips

Tuesday:
Long EUR/USD - 1.3270 didn't get entry.
Long GBP/USD - 1.5690 didn't get entry.
Market moves in favour.
Damange: -

From backtest, this method works very well, generally human are focused on wining, but hate losing... most new traders would have said that this method don't work.... Wining and Losing is a package, Risk and Reward is a package.

Learn to accept total responsibilities of my own trading, learn the advantage, and the limitation of this setup, there's a lot of searching to be done.

and my objective is to find a system that suits me, and deliver consistent result.

Looking forward to consistency
Ayumi

the Process

"I have tried my very best, but it just don't work out".
Don't be disappointed with the result, be happy for yourself for being your very best.
Focus on the Process, not the destination.
Bcz you gave it your BEST.

How you become successful if you didn't pursue excellence?

Caring for the process, the process, the process.

I have some disappointment over this trading week.
I did a few queue to long GBP/USD, at initial shadow, combined with the reversal pattern on Day Chart, signals the market turning up.. but I have missed it, Long the 1st day, the 2nd day..
I missed the entry, with only 4 pips, 5 pips...

I watch the market rebounded, and continue to escalate.

Day 2, I watch the market rebounded, turn up, and formed a reversal sign at top and come down, but i didn't removed my entry to Long and got killed with a loss of 50 pips.

I feel disappointed, for being unhappy bcz I didn't get an entry when I am right.
I feel disappointed, for not willing to remove my order when market signals the opposite and kill my trade.

I am disappointed with myself, bcz, I know what I see, but not trading the same.

And I start to see myself after some time to think about my trades...
I start to learn that I am too focused on the result, the money, making $$$, losing $$, to measure my success.

The process, the process, the process... is the only thing that I should monitor.
and I start to learn, the reason of my shrinking trading account size, is myself not doing the right thing.

How can a novice trader, with only 4 months Demo + 4 months Live swim in the high and low tide of the sea?

And I learn the questions mentor JC has asked:
1) Which trading setup brings the most consistent result?
2) Which trading setup you feel most comfortable with?

Ignorant.  Me.  Ah-you-Me (Ayumi).

I do not know the answers of the above.
Just like master Bryan said, "you have some work to do...."

Yes.

I agree, I am only going to trade on Demo, for the next 6 months.
There's something, more things that I am gonna fix.

Myself.

That I will be kind to myself, to allow myself to learn, to try to be my very best, to find out, which setup suits me, and to craft the setup, the set of rules, for myself, to myself.

I will focus on the Process, the process, not the result.

I will work at my best, I will find out the rules and find out the most consistent setup for myself.
I will put a lot of energy, effort, and I will care, for every bit of the trading decision.
Think twice, and observe myself, during the whole process.

Demo Begins.
5-December-2010
the Search, has just begun.
Answers to be revealed, no earlier than 4-June-2011..