Tuesday, September 27, 2011

EUR/USD on 27-Sep-2011


Yesterday on EUR/USD, another small bodied candle formed, instead of forming a white candle, EUR/USD formed a small bodied black candle.

My entry to long was triggered SL when EUR/USD break below 1.3400, lowest 1.3360.
and then "fry" to close at 1.3513.

Today will continue to trade for Long, entry at initial shadow 1.3457 SL 1.3400 (again), TG 1.3700 (again).


Market has been moving up but didn't retrace.
Yesterday open at 1.5478, lowest 1.5430 and then moving up and close at 1.5546, highest of the day is 1.5569.
Cannot enter with initial shadow, although lowest is 1.5430, but my order is not filled.

Try again today to enter long at 1.5500 SL 1.5453 TG 1.5640 - 680.

Next resistance 1.5680 as marked on the chart.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Daily chart:
two tiny little candle signals two soldiers.
Weekend's meeting and ECB action shall lift EUR/USD for another 2-3 days, expect today to be a bullish candle.

Weekly charts suggest EUR/USD prone to move down, downward potential 1.3300 and strong support 1.3100.

Long with initial shadow 1.3450 SL 1.3400 TG1: 1.3650.

I also hunt for short opportunity for the melt, observe for reversal candlestick pattern at 1.3700 region.


Check 4 hour chart you will see GBP/USD moving down slow and steady over last 4 weeks when it breaks below EMA50.

Knowing my trading style, I am not able to enter short if the market never pull up / retrace. :(

Based on last Friday's candlestick pattern, I reckon market to form a white candle today, while keeping below 1.5600.

Next resistance 1.5600.

Today's intraday trading:
Long GBP/USD 1.5430 SL 1.5390 TG 1.5600 or close by EOD.

Hunt for short upon retracement, favour reversal candlestick pattern to confirm.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

U.S. stocks fell this week, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the biggest loss since 2008, as the Federal Reserve said risks to the economy have increased and concern grew that policy makers will fail to spur growth.

The S&P 500 fell 2.9 percent on (Wed) Sept. 21 and 3.2 percent the next day (Thu) after the Fed said it will replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries to spur growth.
It is not over, and the likelihood of US recession has clearly risen.

Technical Chart, Weekly:

I am expecting the melt down to 9500 region upon breakout to the downside.
Upside resistance 11720 will not be re-visited again and the breakout is happening SOON.

Daily Chart:

Market risen on last Friday as Europe governments agreed a permanent rescue fund.
The European Central Bank may step up efforts to ease financial-market tensions, including offering banks 12-month loans, Governing Council members said. About $3.5 trillion was erased from global equity values this week before yesterday.
From a higher time frame, market has reached 2L, consolidation is about to finish with DJIA trading near to its key support (August-2011 low), breaking below this low will target 9700 for October 2011.

With ECB effort, and weekend's meeting, I am expecting a rebound to 10850- max 10915 region to happen on DJIA.  YM resistance 10800.

Hunt for short at this level and let's ride the late south train together.

Related News: http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LRZTSY07SXKX01-6K828SC6SK85B3V3BCBOS4M4F1

Nasdaq 100

Market is mercy-less for the opposite traders.
Imagine the impact of how fundamentals move our trading account, from 1 end, to another end.

The ECB announcement has lifted Nasdaq 100 from 2135 region and formed a bullish reversal pattern on daily chart. Sames goes to NQ.

I expect market to pull up at least 50% for Nasdaq 100, return to 2260 region.

Short Term Trading: Bullish
Monday, long at initial shadow (-20 index points), eg. Long NQ support at 2175 SL last friday low or 2135 target 2260, or closed by end of day.

Position Trading: Bearish
Rub our eyes, clean up our spectacles and observe for reversal candlestick pattern.

Effective Trading

"Side Effects" of our World GTI

During the recent launch of our World GTI (Gold Trading Indicator), I start to find some of my team members watching the market more effectively than before.

D said now he has a mini-DAR Wong trading 24 hours for his account, and D said he is going to learn and apply the trading methodology via this 24 hour opportunities.

He is sensitive to market movement nowadays, when the market react to political news (yeah, there are many lately, which affects FX as well as Commodities), D were expecting some trades to be done by the trading robot.

We have spent weeks to encourage him watching the market before World GTI, but he always always very busy.  And now, there's no need to encourage him, he is motivated 24 hours, to watch market effectively hahahaa

So now I have different sets of problems lo~~~

Related: www.World-GTI.com

Market Visualization vs Market Passion

Although I am trading on Robot for Gold, I am trading manual on Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and YM, as usual.

Recent commitment has reduced my time for blogging, but not for market visualisation.
Although I may not have the luxury to watch market from my laptop, I always on the move, I still can view from my mobile.

Remembered last week's meeting, mentor says about the market passion.
New traders were generally passionate, they love the market and willing to spend hours and hours sitting in front of the screen, very passionate and spend good market visualisation.  Compare to 2 months ago, I am spending less time watching the markets, less time on charts, less time reading the CNBC, CNN, Dow Jones newswires... because I am doing it less, I guess I am getting old.

September is coming to an end, and here comes my October events, parties, shows, launching, I need better time management and I need better sleep.  Yeah, I sleep with lights on, usually touch the bed and go direct to dreaming ...

When the quarter finally ends, I wish to recover more of my time to watch market again, then shall see my blog posts increase, more coverage on trades done, FX and commodities.

Monday, September 19, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good day everyone


Like Sarah mentioned on Thursday's forecast, DJIA is trading in range and prone to test R1 11500 region, and if market manage to break above 11500, we are going to see R2 11700 level soon.

This happen due to Euro Zone debt crisis that is worsening, how many times are we are hearing it? Monies are moving back into US equity market as safe heaven.

Market has been rising for the past 5 days (1 whole week), last Friday, the Dow finished within 25 points of its high for the day and closed the week up 4.7 percent.

During the weekend we read political pressures on US – White house tax plans like “Buffet Tax” on millionaires, measures to “rescue” Euro-zone debt crisis, and we foresee the coming trading days will be trading based on political issues rather than economic events.

Technical Forecast
Market is prone to trading down, technically after rising for continuous 4-5 days, market is prone to a 1/3 correction. If market reaches higher above 11550, then we shall see the Dow trading towards R2 11700; if market were resisted at current high without moving higher, then we shall see a retracement back to 11350 – 11300 soon, once market traded below 11300, we expect market to test S2 11180.

New traders are advised to stay out and observe how market reflects to news.


Similar to Dow, we forecast a correction to happen after 5 days winning streak, market prone to be supported at S1 2250 – 2240. Strong Support S2 2210.

Once market recovered from the correction, we may see NASDAQ 100 trading back to 2315 and next target 2370.

Monday, September 12, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Technically and fundamentally the Wall Street has entered into a worrying state, commodities and stocks plunge on last Friday after Greek debt emerged. President Obama announced the next stimulus package.

After two years of fighting to content the debt issues, there are rumors and news relating to giving up on Greece, German banks were the biggest holders of Greek government bonds at the end of 2010 with $22.7 billion, Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece.


YM is testing the double bottom support,
Monday may have a slight rebound to 11100, hunt for short and
And target for the week @ 10570.

In case market rally above 11100, next strong resistance 11300.


For advanced associates: Trapezium in play and similar pattern happened.

We learned many market entry from Sifu DAR Wong during advanced workshop, example like Trapezium for Daily entry, Butterfly pattern for intraday entry, and Divergence, etc. etc...

So some of us missed the last chance to short when market retrace to Fibo Retracement 50% last week,

Next action is to SHORT upon market retracement, but we reckon there will be less than 1/3 retracement.

Few entry method can consider today:
Stochastic is low, can look for stochastic butterfly pattern during intraday, when it completes - hunt for short.
Aggressive Trader can consider shorting at Initial Shadow around 40 points from opening; ATR 255 points.
1/3 Fibo Retracement / Resistance for today at 11090 - 11170 observe for shorting opportunity here.

Temporary Support for today @ 10950 double bottoms, but it is weak.
Next support @ 10805.


Nasdaq 100 chart seems weak, but not as weak as DJIA; it is trading in a Big Flag pattern and already testing the bottom for 3rd time last week.

Expect support @ 2140 to break (NQ chart 2130) today or Tuesday. Breaching below 2110, Next target we are looking at least 2082.

Fundamental News for Greece and Germany:

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Beginners' luck?

Remember when we first started on trading, we started with technical analysis, we don't know what the fundamental is, don't know what Quantitative Easing is, don't know why people call Gold a save heaven investment, don't know what is "carry trade", we don't know many things...

We only have some technical analysis terms, drawing lines here and there, we only do what we know, and we make sure we do it.

We made progress, and within a month we make good progress, how to define "Good progress" -- to the beginners, and generally, good progress means "Profit". We keep talking to ourselves that "we are new", "market is risky", "we need to be careful"...

Time pass, we continue making progress, and 6 months has passed.
Our account doubled, tripled, or quadrupled...

We started looking into different type of things, technical, fundamental, psychological...
We thought by doing more things, we shall make better money, we are expecting more.

So, is that important?
That is important for sure.

Is that effective?

I remembered Sifu DAR Wong talked about effective trading during the last Live Trading session.
Only trade with the setup,
When there's a setup, we trade;
When there's none, we do not trade;
We cannot create setup.

Setup can be daily initial shadow; can be anything like the EMA crossings, e.g. fast line crossing the slow line.

But a complete setup shall consist of following:
Money Management -- contract size / position sizing
Trade Setup -- Entry, Stop Loss and Criteria to move SL, Exit (Price Exit, and/or Time Exit).

If the losses have put you off, take time to rest, do something else that you enjoy.
Come back later, and we are always here.

Winning Trade, Losing Trade, Profitable Trade, Good Trade, shall not change our mind, we aim for consistency and we aim to learn a life skill.  Result will come as long as we focus on the process, always monitor the cause and effect, be effective, and do what we know best!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

CL on 8-Sep-2011

Wohoooo.... CL after touching 83.20 channel bottom, did a little congestion and bounced up above 90.00 region, last night it went up to highest 90.48.

It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...

Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.

Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).

Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.

2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?

Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...

From 1 Hour Chart...

Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.

I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).

Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.

Will post my trade if any were done.

Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942

Monday, September 5, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


GBP/USD has dropped for 3 days to 1.6129 last Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on Friday.
Coming week, forecast short term rebound to happen, GBP/USD trading up to resistance 1.6300.

However, based on Friday price action, reckon market to continue trading in range with a potential to trade lower back to 1.6130 region.  I prefer to long at this support and aim for 1.6300 target exit, up to 1.6450 strong resistance.


Normally I have similar view on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
But... I think the drop has not finished yet on EUR/USD.  I haven't seen reversal pattern on EUR/USD, so I can only forecast the market to continue trading lower until EMA200 (Daily) 1.4050 region.

Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
4 hour chart: free falling market - bearish

EUR/USD is trading at 1.4200 level, prefer to pick short at 1.4240 region, aim to exit 1.4050.

Mid Week:
After falling for consistent 5 days, reckon the market to rebound upon touching EMA200 (Daily), if that happen with a reversal candlestick pattern, EUR/USD will qualify for a Long entry with the target at 50% Fibonacci Retracement around 1.4350.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

YM = CBOT E-mini Dow ($5) Futures

Technical Chart:
Touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, and market showing congestion.
on DJIA chart, market has just created a EMA4 & EMA20 cross which signify bearish momentum.

Forecast market to continue trading down to the channel bottom, support at 11100 level.
For the week, reckon a market rebound upon touching support 11100, the rebound shall bring market back to EMA50 (4H) or 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Resistance 11370
Strong Resistance 11520 (highest on last Friday)

Prefer to:
Long at 11100 levels.
Short around 11400-500 levels.


Technical Chart:
Check DJIA30 Daily Chart, we observed a EMA4 and EMA20 cross upon Friday's correction.

Like what Sarah mentioned on her Thursday forecast, observe for reversal sign to short near 11800, however, market only managed to climb up to 11720, but it has fulfilled 1/2 Fibonacci Retracement and plunge for two days.

Those who had missed the opportunity to short still can hunt for retracement to short.

For PW Traders, look into intraday chart (1H and 30M) we can see market approaching 3L, if the fundamental sentiment is bad, we reckon market to continue trading down to 11050 levels before a significant rebound can happen.

Aggressive Trader can aim to short at 11350 levels, SL 11400, TG 11100.
Long is not recommended, only aim to trade long at channel bottom - during mid week near 11050 with proper risk management (50 pts) and aim for a short term rebound to 11400.

Nasdaq 100

It is a volatile week for Nasdaq 100. From technical chart, Nasdaq 100 is resisted below EMA200 (Daily), it comes with a similar pattern with Dow on intraday (30M and 1H) chart.

Expect market to continue trading down on Monday to hit 3L around 2125 levels.
However, if market fundamental is bad, market may directly plunge to previous strong support 2082 region.

Short when market pull up to 2185 level, target exit 2125.


The past week was filled with many public holidays, my Malay friends were celebrating Hari Raya (New Year) and it is Malaysian National Day on 31st August 2011.

So I also declared a holiday for myself, didn't trade but still watch the market.

First time I visit a Malay friend's house and tried Rendang, a lot of tasty home-cooked Malay food, home-made cookies, I feel very happy to go to her house, play with her lazy cat and feel very warm with her hospitality.

Not only that, we have just launched our World Gold Trading Indicator (GTI) to the public and unexpectedly the boardroom is full, and some guest have to stand and squeeze into the room, thanks to the support!!


Alright, so we are back, and lets look forward to what's gonna happen next week on Dow, GBP, and Gold.

Stay tuned...