DJIA on Mon 3-Nov-2014

DJIA

Has posted a strong weekly candle after the reversal confirmation.
My forecast was for it to retrace / sideways for 1 week, before hitting target.
However, I am wrong, DJIA shows its superbull and hit target, break resistance and close above resistance.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

base on Dow theory, DJIA is in a strong up trend - higher high - higher low.

Coming up next is to hit is main wtp 17630 (3L)
and if the strong bull continues,
inner wtp 18270 (6L)

4 Hour Chart

I do not have setup to enter a super bull market, candles are way above EMA50 and there might be no pull back... if there is a pull back: enter long at 16950 pts will be desirable.

Resistance:
18300 pts
17630 pts
17530 pts
Support
17200 pts
16950 pts
16630 pts

DJIA on 28-Oct-2014

This week is very important because the FED will end the QE, at least this round..

Weekly Chart

I am happy because the weekly candle has just confirmed a possible reversal.
It closes above 16700, higher than the mid point of previous bearish candle.


Daily Chart
Daily chart turning positive, it has break above EMA200 and most of the moving averages are turning upward.

I wish for a bull but I am also concerned with the resistance around 16950 - 17000 levels.
Not too optimistic, but, If DJIA could break above 17000 then we might see 17200 soon (4L wtp).

This week should be a ranging week, with some potential to return to 16630 level (which is again my favourite setup).
If support 16,630 pts hold strong, DJIA can return to 16880 and retest its resistance 16950 - 17000 pts.

Once DJIA break above 17000, we shall see 17200 soon, may be another week.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 24-Oct-2014

Daily Chart
Yeah, a white candle :D

4 Hour Chart
Hope for another positive - little range day.

I hope Dow could close above 16,800 pts to confirm reversal on weekly chart.
As forecast, Dow posted a white candle on daily chart yesterday, and hopefully the bull continue.

Strong Support near 16,530 - risk it or not, I might enter an impulsive long near 16,630 pts if market keep the sentiment high until Euro hours.

If failed, I would long at 16,530 pts again.
Target for the week at 16,780 pts.

ATR 275 pts, good range.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 23-Oct-2014

Weekly Chart

I am looking forward to a sudden surge up this evening or Friday, to mark a white candle on weekly chart, in order to confirm the possible reversal since last week.

Daily Chart

Last night's candle is bearish.
Yeah luckily I short :)

It seems like EMA200 is currently a strong resistance to break.







4 Hour Chart

My favourite setup.
Very likely to enter long, SL at low.

Warming up~~~
hope I could enter Long for Dow soon, again.

Cheers
Ayumi

GBP/USD on 14-Aug-2014

Again, we witnessed EMA50 in 4 hour chart...

Unfortunately I am in bed...
I recall the most frequent sentence:

what you do when you are right, and what action you take when you are wrong.

It matters so much.

Cheers
Ayumi

GBP/USD on 6-Aug-2014

Market retest support level near 1.6810, rebounded.
from intraday chart, there's a XAB, hitting 2L.
Currently the 50% retracement has completed market could go up to 1.6930 level, but I hope market to trade sideways before hitting target 1.6930.

Trading Plan:
Pending Order to Long GBP/USD at 1.6830.
SL 1.6800 (30 or 40 pips)
TG 1.6930 (100 pips)

1.6930 is also the resistance in 4H chart (EMA50).

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA update on Thu 11-Jul-2013

DJIA 4 hour chart

It has break previous high (marked with a curved line)
It is going to go higher towards 15550 pts now.

I abandon short for time being.
 

DJIA on Thu 4-Jul-13

This week on Dow, so far sideways Ping Pong bias down. And we are coming to Thursday.

Expect some announcements tonight and expect same movements - faster time.

For day time, I think shorting around resistance level 15,000pts can work and let's aim for a candlestick pattern with antenna top. But if it doesn't. Hold your fingers.





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Transaction

I went out for beer with colleagues last night and 4 of us played cards and we played the "lying dices".

It's amazing to see how some people really know how to con the others. Well it's just having fun among friends and colleagues.

During the night, I turned on Interceptor and found US30 (YM or DJIA) has tested 15000 level and stochastic level went high.

And, I placed a market order to short, giving 50 pts stop loss, reminding myself of the day range is 200-250 pts... Market might go higher to 15100 then I will give up shorting.

So i think it's reasonable and justifiable to short.

Order closed just now. Made 71 pts by shorting.

Order ticket:



Side track a bit for my early week activity.

I had fun in Penang island. Had some nice hawker food.

Went to this Sisters' Fried Kueh Teow this morning.




Sisters fried kueh teow.
And we ordered food from other stalls, they are generally good, especially the Penang Hokkien Noodles (red soup is made of prawn), the red drink is nutmeg, u should try nutmeg if you come to Penang.




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Transaction

Gold trade closed
Tempted to Long Dow. Dropped the idea / abandoned.

Time to bed.

Order ticket:
Revised target price to 1230$ but market range diminished and I do not want to wait. Manual close and finish work for the week.



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DJIA Update 6-Jun-2013

DJIA has came down to 14900 region, 1L target hit within 2 days. It's fast.

Reckon market to take a break with some sideways movement within 14900 - 15120.
Sideways to test resistance level (which was the BKO level) at 15120.

Check yesterday's DJIA update for future target levels.





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DJIA update 2013-06-04

DJIA ends at session high.
It didnt come down as forecast.

Overhead resistance 15280.
Break above 15300 and stay above to resume uptrend,
Or resisted below to continue correction.



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GBP/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Weekly Chart

The weekly candle is showing some possible reversal if GBP/USD stays above 1.5100 for the week.

Day Chart
Potential reversal in GBP/USD is less promising compare to EUR/USD.

Breaking below 1.5000 will continue plunge down to 1.4800.

EUR/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Up or Down?

I favour down...
But I don't discount the possibility to go up to 1.3200 if EUR/USD successfully break above 1.3000 resistance today.

USD/JPY on 2013-04-23

This is scary

Can u see the long shadow in one of the 30 minutes candle?

I was having a Long position.

I was tired and sleepy.

And luckily I moved stop loss to entry, came out of the trade at zero profit zero loss.



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DJIA on Tue 12-Mar-2013

Hiring Picked up in February, the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in February; unemployement rate down to lowest level (7.7%) since December 2008.  The increase in jobs and decrease in the unemployment rate were better than expected.

Within this 30 minutes of NFP report, market swing and it was thrilling seeing the actions.



Tuesday 12-Mar-2013

Sorry for being late posting my forecast.  Market has reached higher and currently trading at 14,444 pts; market is trending higher and stochastic is high but no signal of turning down.

Next Target for DJIA: 14,550 pts, 14,700 pts.

Current Support 14,300 pts

Strong Support 14,200 pts

Today’s setup: Initial shadow long, enter Long at 14,420 pts, SL 13,390 pts, TG 14,550 pts / close EOD.

DJIA an Nasdaq 100

On Thu 25-Oct-2012

Nasdaq 100

I feel so like entering long... but not yet.
clue within 30 minutes chart

Trend: bearish, with momentum, strong.
approaching support 2660 but I think should trade lower soon.

2nd clue, 4 hr chart:

may be it still need a little bit of time before we accumulate enough power to reverse.

Lets spot a strong support level from daily chart:

2640 pts, Thursday (today).

DJIA

bearish, consolidation, challenging lower.
likely to hit 13050 and test below 13000 soon.

However, I don't suggest trading long unless we see rejection around 12950.
Those prefer going short, park short order near 13150-177 pts, TG 13000 (less favour).

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 13 Aug 2012

Jobless claims unexpectedly slid by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended August 4, proving more jobs creations in market for the unemployed.

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 0.6 percent drop in the import-price index followed a 2.4 percent decline in June;
Costs excluding fuel decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest decline in two years.
Showing the weak global demand depressing prices.

U.S. export prices climbed 0.5 percent in July, after falling 1.7 percent the previous month. Prices of farm exports climbed 6.4 percent and those of non-farm goods decreased 0.3 percent.

Last Week

Market is generally HOPING for QE3 and pushed the index higher;
Market is bullish and as per last week forecast, the support has again moved up from 12950 to 13050 – a level showing group supports from Monday to Friday.

While market is moving closer up to target level 13350, the downward pressure on DJIA with recent corn prices (increase of raw material to food manufacturers) is looming.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, I maintain DJIA target at 13350 pts.
Daily Chart: Bullish, average day range is diminishing. Trading volume has reduced, and lower than average daily volume.

Intraday chart: potential up towards 13350 but downward pressure is developing with the resistance at 13250 pts. in line with overbought signal.

We reckon market to suffer a little bit of correction on Monday, from 13200 to 13150 pts. and then trading sideways bias up towards target.

Intraday trading preference: long near 13150, close EOD or near 13300-13350.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has posted another strong gains, and group support level moves up to 2706 and our target remains at 2748 – 2750 pts.

Hunt for long at daily initial shadow near 2718 pts., close EOD or target level 2748.

Cheers
Ayumi

GBP/USD Update

GBP/USD on 16-May-2012

Something interesting is happening, timing is almost there.

With the euro turmoil, Greece election, US JPMorgan chase 2 billion trading loss…

We see USD shooting up like crazy..

And so in line with non so good economic data release from the Great Britain side…

Market plunged and now trading at 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Check day chart below.

My method is easy.

Fibonacci retracement, 50%, look for a strong reversal signal, or previous group support.

Here I identified two levels…

Current 1.5930 (red triangle box)

Next support 1.5810 (purple line)

I hope market do not need to fall there (1.5810) but start to consolidate from today, trade sideways between 1.5900 – 1.6050 (150 pips) and breakup to next high next week.

I believe market will repeat the same cycle, and so, for the remaining of the week, I reckon market to consolidate, bias up.

I rather not enter any trade, but hope to long (now), or initiate Long next Monday (save some overnight interest, save myself from weekend news) and lets ride.

Will post if trade was done.

Gold Update

On this beautiful Wednesday evening, 16-May-2012

Take a look at Gold, what say you?

Gold Daily Chart

Group Support level: 1522

Psychological Support 1500

Next bottom: 1475

You think it is a good buy now?

I think not yet.

Bargain hunting to buy some precious gold, may be buying action should only come next week.

This week, lets continue shorting!

No signal from hourly chart, no signal from 30 mins chart, not overbought, neither oversold.

Daily Range 23 pts.

Can short when market returns 1540.

Target exit: 1522

Target exit: 1500

Will be greedy to buy when it fall below 1500 towards 1475.