Monday, February 25, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 25 Feb 2013

Ops! Its 10:40pm (GMT+8) here and market has opened almost an hour ago.
Market has gained 37 pts, last done 14,037.63 pts (+37.06%).

governors from around the country were gathering in washington last weekend for the national governors association winter meeting. The delayed sequester is scheduled to hit in March.

Related video:

Well I do think that US will once again propose to raise debt ceiling, introduces some other means to ease economy.


Weekly Chart:
last week market found support near 13850 pts (low 13836 pts) and closes above 14000.
With this market pattern, we suspect market to be volatile this week trying to hit higher high.

Daily Chart:
Last Friday was a positive day, market gained 119.95 pts to 14000.57 pts from previous close 13880.62.

market is trading near overbought area and 14000 has become a temporary support should market continue to try higher.

14120 pts.

Well I do hope a healthy correction to EMA50 (4H) support near 13,970 pts - before market hitting higher high.

I would prefer to intiate Long at 13,970 pts area.

Immediate target 14,120 pts, Target 14,200, 14,450 pts over March 2013.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 is volatile.  Big up, Big down.  Exciting.

Forecast market to test support before turning up to try higher high towards 2815 pts

Support 1: 2750
Support 2: 2710
Support 3: 2680

Target 1: 2780
Target 2: 2815


Sunday, February 17, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 18 Feb 2013

Last week University of Michigan's February report on consumer sentiment came in at 76.3, above a 74.8 forecast, this week’s major annoucement fall on Wednesday 9:30pm – Building Permits and PPI, Thursday – FOMC Meeting Minutes, Core CPI, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.


DJIA closed just barely higher but formed a bearish candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

With the new high formed last week, at first I was a strong believer that market could look up above 14100 to hit 14,120 pts.  Instead, market fall to support above 13900 and closed at 13,981.76 pts last Friday.

I am getting back to my belief that stocks / DJIA needs to face correction by end of this month (February) and extend to March.

Related Post:
I maintain my forecast of the market.

current phase: market swings, correction awaiting breakout either to the top or bottom.
Breaking up above 14000, market is going to hit 14120 pts.
Breaking below - target 13850-875 pts, 13630-650 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 short term forecast: rebound from current low 2760 pts, to resistance 2770 pts.
enter long near support 2760 and enter short near 2775


Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Dow! Dow! Dow!

Dow hit best level, and it breakup.

Currently trading at 14,040 pts.
Target 14,120 pts.

Go go go!

Tuesday, February 12, 2013


Short DJIA / US30 (FXCM)

Instant execution 10:06pm (GMT+8) to short at 13980 pts SL 14010 (30), TP 13890 (90) or close by 12am (GMT+8).

Also parked another order to short at 14000 pts, pending.

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DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 11-Feb-2013
It was a nice call to short yesterday, I reckon market to continue trading below 14000 pts.
Intraday trading:
From smaller time frame - 30 mins, market is trading at support level 13950 pts, breaking below would bring it down to 13850 pts.

From higher time frame - 4 hour, market is trading above EMA50 support, breathless, as I can see the market is consolidating and awaiting breakout either to top or bottom.
Breaking up - target 14120 pts.
Breaking below - target 13850-875 pts, 13630-650 pts.

Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100 chart is weird to me...
I do not know how to trade this market and neither I am able to interpret them.
Lets try,
Nasdaq 100 is bullish, with bearish candlestick pattern.

trading above support, EMA4 and EMA20 shows bullish sentiment.
take a look from 4 hour chart:
Market has break above resistance with a long bodied bullish candle.
but was then suppressed below 2780 pts.

therefore, from mid-higher time frame (day to week) market is slight bullish.
from small-mid time frame (hours to day) market is slight bearish.
Take a look EMA50 is also the support level 2755 pts.
I would prefer to initiate long near 2755 pts if the support holds.
Gong Xi Fa Cai~~ I got many ang pows~~!!!

Friday, February 8, 2013

Update on DJIA

It is a data heavy Thursday.

Economic Data summarry by dealers has to split into 3 parts!
and here you go...
Source: ForexFactory

DJIA / US30 / YM

Data Feed = FXCM (UK)

US30 hourly chart:

I have planned for exit at 14,120 pts as you have seen me posting since 3 weeks ago.
I have stopped out last night with 6 pts profit.

US30 4 Hour chart:

I long black candle, couple with a full bodied white candle - fighting at EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
In which, it shows the bull - bear fight and consolidation should take place for another half day.

US 30 Daily Chart:
according to Dow theory, market is going to turn from super bull, to consolidation, to bearish.

Lower high, lower low.
Yesterday's low at 13852 pts is also the support level we identified during our weekly forecast.

It could be a good buy opportunity but I have missed it.  Market is trading  about 100 pts above support level.  I reckon the bearish sentiments to kicks in from now and market should face resistance near 14000 region.

Initiate short near resistance, SL 30 pts away, profit target 13,850 pts or close EOD.

Monday, February 4, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Ops! I am late!

It is afternoon here at 4pm (GMT+8).

FTSE 100 opened lower, Friday close 6,347.24 pts, last done 6,329.47 pts.
but it has done quite nice for the year to date at +7.32%.

Last Friday we have positive NFP, improved US consumer sentiment, better than forecast Eurozone economic data and sustained growth in China - easing worry of demand in the world's 2nd largest economy, US market has flirted above 14,000 pts (I am excited!)

US did not fall off fiscal cliff, and the debt ceiling issue were now pushed to May-2013.

This week, the financial earnings comes to full force and we reckon market to continue sky rocket higher in line with many positive reports as a result of continuous stimulus from Federal Reserves.

Trade with caution as the strength of the bull is now at its fullest, market couldn't go up all the way,
therefore, we reckon a healthy pull back to be in place - so be prepared, the bull might be exhausted when we are trading towards March 2013.

DJIA / US30 / YM

Market - bullish
Short term support: 13,950 (1/3 retracement of Friday's H-Lo)

As per our forecast since last month, after hitting 14,000, next target is 14,120 pts.
Grab it!

Forecast 28-Jan-2013
Forecast 21-Jan-2013

Nasdaq 100

Market - slight bullish
Short term support 2750 pts (1/3 retracement of Friday's H-Lo)

Market revisit resistance near 2775 pts, and we reckon market to continue trading sideways bias up to hit 2775 pts, then 2785 pts and ultimately 2800 pts.


Friday, February 1, 2013

Dow breaks 14k

Dow breaks 14k!
In line with better than expected economic data :)

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