Monday, January 31, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Best trading week of the month!  Ayumi got so lucky that my position is Triggered with minimum loss (-40 pips) on GBP/USD, if there's no SL, I believe I will suffer with loss of paper capital (more than 100 pips), as well as mental capital.

Money management and protection of the account is VERY important!  Keep an eye on your trading account, your money, your profits, they'll not run away if you are keeping them in tight control.  They'll not run away if you are making consistent profit, and consistent losses. :)


Many signs of EUR/USD reversal.. pick short when EUR/USD come up to 1.3680.
for a healthy correction to take place, this reversal will find its support at 1.3480, major support at 1.3330.

Position trade: Short 1.3680, SL 1.3710, TG 1.3480.

Intraday Long at 1.3573 SL 1.3533 TG 1.3680.  This order must be cancelled if there's no price movement until midday (GMT+8).
Overhead resistance 1.3750-800, if EUR/USD break above this level, then it will continue go north again with our target 1.4030.


Choppy week.
Looking forward, GBP/USD found a strong resistance at 1.6058 and formed a nice wave pattern in intraday chart (4 hour), and flag pattern on day chart (lower high).

Potential down to 1.5790 (within reach), S1: 1.5560, S2: 1.5350.
Intraday using initial shadow to short at 1.5900 SL 1.5950 TG 1.5790.

Summary: Only 1 position trade for EUR/USD, the rest: GBP/USD, Gold Ayumi is going for intraday trade only.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I am watching DJIA close 167 pts lower on Friday, with a bearish reversal signal on day chart.
And I received message asking whether DJIA fall is coming?  The fall which we have been waited for ages.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

DJIA retreat after touching 12020, in the picture of the DJIA bull run, there are some reasons which indicate a reversal - day chart showing bearish engulfing pattern + week chart doji.

DJIA support 11745, which is a support for current up trend, is just less than 80 pts away...

May be I am deeply in love with the uptrend, I see that there is a potential of DJIA make another dip to 11785 on Monday, pull up to 11910, and if the reversal is true, then we might see DJIA first settle at 11745 vulnerable support, which can be broken anytime soon!

If you are still not convinced of the reversal even though we see day chart reversal and weekly doji... you are like me, simply want to see Dow make it to 12033-050, whether Dow will make it or not -unknown- :) if our short at 11910 has been triggered (suggest SL 11945), there's a possibility that... Dow make it to 12050! :)  Or may be, Dow is going to the moon at 12300 after this handsome correction of -167 pts.  If you wished to Long, only initiate Long near minor support 11785, SL 11740 TG 11910.

Nasdaq 100

Bearish.  Nasdaq 100 touched the ceiling 2336 and closed at 2270 for the week. Check there's a butterfly pattern on 1 hour chart (butterfly pattern is covered in Professional Trade Master program), signals a possible turn up.  Short at 2300 resistance, SL 2310 before continuation of the fall to 2236, then 2200.

Alternatively, stay out to watch the development of reversal on Monday to decide which side you want to trade.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Gold and Silver on 29-01-2011 (Sat)

2 Possibilities:

Possibility 1: Gold continue to go up to 1350 (50% retracement) and continue the dive.
  • From Intraday chart (30 mins), we observe a inner wave up and already hit 3L;
    Intraday Traders looking to long may long at 1328 SL 1322 TG 1340.
  • Reckon Gold to face resistance at 1350, do a slight correction before breaking higher;
    Intraday Traders looking to short may want to place a short at 1351 SL 1356 TG 1326.
Possibility 2: Bottom of 1307 on last Friday and intraday (30Min) reversal signals a trend reversal, Gold going to break above 1350 resistance, break higher, by end of the week Gold may probably settle at 1375-79.

Choose to do intraday trade for this week, for long term position trade, I would rather wait for Gold to break above 1350 first, close around 1380 to confirm the reversal.  Or to seek for intraday reversal again when Gold come to major support 1295-1280.

Summarize Support and Resistance:
R3: 1350
R2: 1365
R1: 1379

S1: 1326
S2: 1307
S3: 1295
S4: 1280

Pretty much resisted at double top 27.95-28.00 region.
From Friday's closing, reckon Silver to continue to go higher to 28.45-50 before correction take place.

If Silver being resisted at 28.00 (double top region) and turn down, we reckon Silver to find support at 27.30.

Stay out on Silver temporary, I'm still having a personal bias to short Silver.  I wished to Silver make a max pull up to 28.50 with a reversal candle on day chart, and to plunge to 25.82.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Gold on 27-Jan-2011

Didn't manage to catch another short for this week, I have just cancelled my short order.

Gold has come to as low as 1322 on Tuesday 25/1/2011, as per my weekly forecast on Gold:

we will regard the Head and Shoulder pattern complete when Gold has come with  a reversal pattern spot on Gold Daily Chart.
Japanese Candlestick pattern: Morning Star.

Remove the short order and get ready to spot for long opportunity.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Some China Banks Voluntarily Raise Interest Rates - Report

From Dow Jones Newswire

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Some Chinese banks have voluntarily raised interest rates on their loans from 10% to 45%, the China Securities Journal reported Wednesday, citing unnamed industry sources.

The bank has reached its January loans target and have ordered its branches to raise interest rates so as not to exceed the bank''s quota, the paper said, citing a source.

Another unnamed joint-stock bank has also raised interest rates for loans extended to small and medium-sized enterprises by about 40% since the beginning of the year, the paper said, citing another source.

Meanwhile, the China Business News reported Wednesday that new yuan loans this year have reached CNY1.2 trillion as of Jan. 24, citing an unnamed authoritative source.

The robust amount of lending underscores the challenge faced by China as it seeks to combat inflation. In its latest move to tackle rising prices, the central bank raised banks'' reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point Thursday, following six hikes last year.

Financial institutions in China extended CNY7.95 trillion of loans in 2010, above the official target of CNY7.5 trillion. In 2009, bank loans hit a record CNY9.6 trillion, as the government sought to boost the economy after the global financial crisis.

Link: Newspaper Website

Happy birthday to Ayumi!

Thanks to mph voucher worth RM148, I paid RM11.80 for this book!

Retail RM159.80.

Would share the insights and enlightenment while I'm reading and digesting :)

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

How we get started...

When I flip back my journals.. it reminds me of how we started calculating the initial shadow, day range formula, our labeling of XABC... I remember how our ProMaster April 2010 Batch started, how we first organize our gathering, how we share our findings, our doubts, broker information, sms each other of the EMA-50 signals, posting in the forums..
Initial shadow for 3 majors, day range, charting, etc etc...

Every new associate remind us of how we get started... And believe me, all associates, all traders have to go through the process and you will find the process and hard work worthwhile.

There are still many things that I do not understand, but mentor JC has shared a very effective way to the solutions:
Write it down.
Like sifu said, just write it down, when you have reached to a certain level, you will be able to understand.

We can guarantee everyone, even Master Denny told us the same:
If you put your heart into it (learning & trading), after weeks, months, years, everything will unfold.

I have picked up many essence from the ProMaster workshop, from Sifu, from mentor JC, from master Denny (my coach during ProMaster), they have put their heart into the module, they shared the application, and they totally believe in the system.

I wish all continue to work hard, and hope the new year brings many many fruits, many many blessings to all! Plant the seeds, today! Start to work today, and get the ball rolling :)

~~~~ a Happy Birthday to Ayumi in advance, when the click ticks to 12am, I am 1 year older :) ~~~~

Saturday, January 22, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on Monday 24-Jan-2011

DJIA Uptrend, as our team mentioned in APSRI forum, we watch an important resistance level at 12050 region.
Traders who follow Ayumi the Novice Trader and long at 11600 2 weeks ago, did you add another long 11760 this week? :)
Well done and you can place your sell limit (target exit) at 12033-12050. and move trailing stop to 11700 now.

We reckon DJIA to show support at 11795, 11730. Those already have your long at 11600 and 760, I do not recommend to add positions, while aggressive traders can long when DJIA come to 11760-730, SL 11680.
DJIA shall not fall below 11700 for the uptrend to continue. I'm Looking forward to 12033 to close the trade this week.
If DJIA continue to receive good news, and convincingly break above key resistance 12050 this week, I would say hard to believe, but, it is very likely to shoot to the moon at 12300 in next 2 months.

Do not let greed overtake you, set the target exit, and adhere to your plans / rules.  When we forecast 12300, doesn't mean that don't take profit at 12033, instead, be extra careful at the key resistance as we also observe for reversal to short.  Market always fall faster, and it can sweep your profit in lighting speed!  Control your stop loss, and do not only look at upside, take care of the downside, protect your capital.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 24-Jan-2011

Still Bullish, our team suggest to pick long near current level 2265-260, support at 2250, alternatively, you can place SL 20 points away, TG remain the same: 2320-2350.  Ultimate TG 2380-2400!

Visit APSRI Forum here:
Visit APSRI DJIA Forum here:
For details on ProMaster program that I have attended, click here:

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog, click here:

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Last week, we forecasted the probability of EUR/USD double top and come down to 1.3250, however, it didn't happen and also break above 1.3455-1.3496.  From my Wednesday posting, you know we are looking forward to EUR/USD reach 1.3620 if my SL is triggered.  Read: EUR/USD on 19-Jan-2011 (Wednesday).

From Weekly time frame, it seems that reaching 1.3620 with a bullish candle on Daily Chart, presents a high possibility of EUR/USD rally to upside, with a new target at 1.4030, or double top of 1.4280, by end of February 2011.

I abandon short, and looking to Long EUR/USD on short term correction.

R2: 1.3950
R1: 1.3800
Intraday support:
S1: 1.3565
S2: 1.3503-1.3496 (Prev High)

For intraday trade, preference is to Long at S2: 1.3496 SL 1.3440 TG 1.3670.
It is a bit difficult to place a long term trade on EUR/USD now, although I am looking forward to 1.40 region, I doubt we can find a good entry... Observe the development of EUR/USD.


**** Favourite Market ****
I reckon GBP/USD to trade in range of 300 pips this week, bias up.
Support 1.5850
Resistance 1.6050
Double Top Resistance 1.6180 (Nov-2010 High)

Trading Range for the week: 1.5850 - 1.6180.

Intraday recommendation: Long @ 1.5950 / 1.5850. SL 40 pips, Target 1.6169.
Avoid trading if you do not like consolidation, but to be honest, my personal opinion: it seems that support at 1.5850 is a good level for a long ride... :)

Average Day Range ≈ 140 pips

p/s: I am actively watching GBP/USD, Gold and DJIA.  Therefore coverage on USD/JPY will be less unless good reversal and day range >100 pips.

Related Post: Weekly Foreacast (FX)

Friday, January 21, 2011

Gold from Aggressive to Control (Fri) 21-Jan-2011

While Gold has hit my 2nd target of 1344, I have a change of view on Gold market.  From aggressive short, to wait-and-see observation for intraday short opportunity.

Gold may continue to drive south to hit my ultimate target of 1330, which is a strong support line.
By the time Gold come to 1330-1310 region, I would regard it as a completion of Head and Shoulder pattern, and Gold is set to continue its uptrend to new highs.

Aggressive Short traders can consider to short if Gold retraces from current 1340 to 1360-66, SL 1371.  Looking forward to Gold hitting 1330.

I would then change my short view on Gold, to Long (Bullish) when Gold come to 1300-1294 level, while which level to long Gold depends on the momentum.

Gold on Friday 21-Jan-2011

My part on Gold is done.  Did you shorted the Gold like the level I mentioned on Monday? Related Post: Gold on 15-Jan-2011, this is what we at Ayumi the novice trader said:
I would possibly place my short at 1373-1377, SL 1385.
Target exit 1350, 1330, 1315. revised: 1358, 1344, 1330

Which level have you shorted? and which level have you taken profit?
  • Shorted at 1377 SL 1385, TG 1358 Hit!
    +19 points
  • Shorted at 1377 SL 1385, TG 1344 Hit!
    +33 points!
ultimately the last target is 1330, Hold your short, and remove the SL to 1358 (trailing stop) and place the TG at 1330, hopefully we may get the realised profit of +47 points, tonight :)  If not, close the position now at 1346 and enjoy the CNY shopping :)

Related Post: Gold on 15-Jan-2011

Tired.. but worth it!

We had a gathering this afternoon with associates from KL...
It is tired to have continuous tea session, mocha, softdrinks, fruit juice, ice blended... (Ops! high sugar intake today!)

I have seen how does mentor JC becoming a walking module, I have seen how master HC explains the PW concept, I have seen how master Lam delivers his conviction in PW, seen senior associates finding the right path, team mates working hard towards their goals and dreams... share new findings, and adventures...

It is so great to be with a group of people, with the same interest, same goal, same objectives, and trained to see the market, explain the market, in the same language.

When talk about market forecast, nobody can teach how to forecast a market like we do.
Nobody can deliver the whole program, by traders, to traders, even a telephone invitation, is initiated by traders.
Nobody else can tell, when to exit, and what price to exit, like we do.

Nobody would be willing to share, and learn, and progress, like we do.

May be there are, just that I haven't meet.  I would love to meet more!  And lets make the world a better place.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA never look back below 11600 :) Good stop loss, and continue the ride~ new high 11860.

Recall we at Ayumi the Novice Tradeer said on Monday 17-Jan-2011:

Revised Support Level
S1: 11760
S2: 11680
Resistance: 11867
T1: 12033
T2: 12250

While DJIA has hit 11860 tonight, we reckon market to retrace to 11760 before continuation of uptrend.
Those already long at 11600, can try to add another long position when DJIA retrace to 11760, SL 11680 or 11635 depend on your risk appetite.

Looking forward to 12033! :)

Nasdaq 100

Phew, intraday pick long on 17-1-2011 is dead.  Or for those who saw Nasdaq 100 open Gap down at 2300 and stay out, thank God!
Weekly position, nice!
Nasdaq 100 is doing correction tonight, a bit worry about the Long position @ 2300 being squared out....
As long as support 2295 is not breached (SL 2294), we are safe to ride the trend until 2380!

Never Grow Up

Never Grow UpListening to... "Never Grow Up"

Strumming from the guitar resonates with my soul~ Feel wonderful tonight.
Can stay this simple... Do what we love, do what we love, sleep when we are tired, rest when the mind need to rest.  Be simple~~~

Overall for January month, good start with +210 pips, then two SL on GBP/USD and EUR/USD -40 pips, -50 pips, triggered SL on EUR/USD today -30 pips, +33 points on Gold, convert to $$ = +420.

Welcome happiness, welcome sadness, welcome winning trades, welcome losing trades.
While we are trading at high probability market turning point, if market break higher, it is gonna go higher, so, why bother?  We are simply happy that we only make little losses today. :) Anyway, this is just another trade babe.

Stay tuned with the updates on Majors and DJIA, coming up!

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

EUR/USD on 19-Jan-2011 (Wed)

My Trading Plan will be on EUR/USD

Short 1.3440 SL 1.3470
TG 11.3250

Breaking above yesterday high means will trigger my SL, then the next is the rally may drive EUR/USD towards 1.3620.

All the best traders!

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Transaction (FX)

I want to short EUR/USD 1.3450
Short GBP/USD 1.6050

Will come to watch market at 8-9pm to decide my trading plan :)

Get the Ball Rolling

Get the Ball Rolling
from T.Harv Eker

i love it when T.Harv Eker said...
What step is often the hardest to take? That first one.
You need to build the next muscle and final spiritual muscle that separates the successful from those still waiting at the gate: momentum.
A body in motion will remain in motion and a body at rest will remain at rest.

The hardest part about working out is getting to the gym. Once you get there, it’s not that hard to do.

The hardest part about making a call is getting the phone off the hook. Once you dialed a number, it's not that hard to do...

Lets start the engine, fire up some charts, read the forum, Get into motion!

You will make it. Trust yourself. Love yourself and know that you make it all up. It’s your freaking story!

No need to think, no need to know everything before we start. Once you have shown your first effort, the universe will guide the rest.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD trading near main resistance 1.5909, if GBP/USD break above this level, then it may probably extend another 150 pips towards 1.6050.
If current resistance 1.5909 hold tight, minor support 1.5780, 1.57, major support at 1.5650.

Prefer trading short now, observe development of reversal pattern at current high (1.5886) or 1.6050 region.

Recent high 1.3455, and and 1.3496 (Dec-2010) present a good opportunity to short.
breaking above this high means EUR/USD will rally towards 1.3620.
My preference is to the downside, pick short around 1.3450.
If formed a reversal pattern at current high, expect minor support at 1.3250, 1.3150.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on Monday 17-Jan-2011

My senior Wink Market Raider has posted call to Long last friday on DJIA, Long at 11709, SL 11679 (Friday Low 11698, means traders are safe!), TG 11790.

I always admire master Walter's view in the market and I believe trading in this market is a bit tricky now for some new traders, just visit our forum regularly for more market insights!

Many would have regard that DJIA oversold, divergence, double divergence, and must come down, yes, it must, however, we believe that it will not come down today, not tomorrow, and we still believe that DJIA bull may last until end of this month, and slowly, slowly rally towards the 12050 region, and ultimate target 12250.

In line with our previous week forecast, congratulations to those who followed my long at 11600-570, which level have you bought DJIA? :) the lowest DJIA has go is 11573 on Monday, and it never revisit any price below 11600 in the remaining trading days ~ move your SL, and enjoy the ride yeeeeha!

DJIA Support: 11680. Strong Support 11635.
As long as DJIA didn't trade below the strong support 11635 in the following week, I regard DJIA uptrend intact. Aggressive traders may initiate long when u observe DJIA retrace to this support 11680 with reversal pattern. SL may be placed at 11615-600, aim for 11800 as first target, and 12000.
Those who added a new position on Friday and taken profit of 90 points, congratulations.
I maintain my long view target 11816, 12033, 12250.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 17-Jan-2011

Didn't get the long entry as my previous week's forecast, but the uptrend is soooooo beautiful, hit target and higher and higher...

Those who followed Sarah's call to Long must be very happy sitting in profit position now Good job Sarah!
She is a fast learner and has been very timely with her update and good forecast. Sifu said Sarah is a good thinker. Agree!

Intraday support 2310, Support 2: 2300, Strong Support: 2294.
Resistance: 2320, 2400, 2470.

Intraday pick long at 2310, SL 2305, TG 2320-2350.
For the week, pick long 2300 SL 2294, TG 2380-400.

I hope you like what I share, I hope all are happy for the profit you make from the market, enjoy the ride and hope all can make Big angpow for Chinese New Year.

I strongly encourage all traders from KL to attend Henry & Aaron's ProMaster workshop this coming weekend i.e. 22nd & 23rd January 2011, this is a must go event, Trader ProMaster concludes Sifu DAR Wong's proven trading method and successful traders' trading concept, and most importantly, the module is delivered in the most simple manner!! As I am the product of ProMaster, I can learn, you can learn too. Contact JC to register. Details click here.

Visit APSRI Forum here:
Visit APSRI DJIA Forum here:
For details on ProMaster program that I have attended, click here:

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog, click here:

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Gold on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Gold on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)
(1 gm) .999 Fine Gold Bar - (With Assay Card)

I shorted Gold at 1385, Gold market has Triggered my stop loss on Thursday night 13/1/2011 @ 1391, resisted at 1392, form a candlestick reversal pattern (bearish engulfing) and .... and dive down.
Price go back to entry, and entered to my target price.

Taken my losses, happy for the little loss of 6pts.
I'm looking forward to retracement for another short entry.

Reckon market to find support like previous low 1352 (Friday low 1354).
This time, retracement won't go too far, may be 1367, max 1377.

I would possibly place my short at 1373-1377, SL 1385.
Target exit 1350, 1330, 1315. revised: 1358, 1344, 1330

Silver on 17-Jan-2011 (Mon)
Didn't trade on Silver, but it seems that my pick to Short 29.26 or 29.76 seems fine.. and market turn after 2nd short level.

Yet to hit target price 27.586, Friday low 28.059.  Make all figures look simple... from now on... I will post 2 decimal...
Reckon market to retrace to 28.92,  pick short at 28.92, SL 29.06 (14 cents), TG 28.35 (57 cents), Ultimate TG 27.60 (132 cents).

Silver contract size is big for me... Trading Gold means cannot trade Silver :p
Lets get Silver contracts explained:

Silver Futures
Product Symbol: SI
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 5,000 troy ounces
Min Tick Size EFP = 0.005 (0.5 cents) per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $25 per contract
1 full Point (1 cent) correspondent to = $50 per contract

Trading Example:
Sell 5,000 troy ounce of Silver @ 28.920 per troy ounce = USD 144,600
Buy 5,000 troy ounce of Silver @ 27.600 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,230
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking SI at 5% now, my preferred broker also offer 5%.
Profit = +132 cents correspond to Profit = +USD 6,600
ROI = 91%

Good news, I just knew another broker offer mini versions of all Standard Spot Metals contracts at 10% of the main contract size.
meaning, in this case, margin requirement is USD 723 for 1 mini contract :)

Disclaimer: Margin product (leveraged product) like Gold and Silver can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Trading margin product may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, control your risk and do not let Greed overtake you.

Gold Bar Image extraced from Amazon:

Related Post: Gold Futures and Silver Futures


Have renovated a bit ...

Sorry to some RSS subscriber, cuz I clicked "Publish" while I am doing the tidy up... and some of you may receive some messy blog logo and header thingy... sorry sorry :p my mistake.

After the renovation, I feel more like it now... finally got my icon near the address bar... yes, Finally!

Have been working this morning since 3am.. hit the pillow and slept, and missed the meeting with my group member on Facebook! :p checked on FB... nobody has posted anything... so... Hope that everything is fine without my presence (finding excuses).

Coming up... Gold  Forecast and DJIA update.
Coming up... my favourite FX pair GBP/USD, and some other major currencies.

Stay tuned!

Friday, January 14, 2011

Video tutorial

I am thinking of creating video tutorial on top of my blog posts in writing..

If you have recommendation of the video editing software, please post your comment here or send me an email at

If the software have ability to convert baby-girl-like voice to a sexy gal voice would be best :) hahhaa

Thank you!

Gold Trading and Contract Specifications

Average Day Range for Gold = $13.

little tutorial on Gold Futures:
Product Symbol: GC
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 100 troy ounces
Min Tick Size = 0.10 per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $10
1 full point correspondent to = $100

Example: Short Gold Futures Profit
Gold Price @ 1,400 USD, Short
When Gold is trading at 1,399.90 USD = +$10.00
When Gold is trading at 1,399.00 USD = +$100.00

Example: Short Gold Futures Trade
You decide to go short one near-month Comex Gold Futures contract at the price of USD 1400.00/oz. Since each Gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold, the value of the contract is USD 140,000. To enter the short futures position, you have to put up an initial margin of USD 7,000.

A week later (or in our case, a day later), the price of gold falls and correspondingly, the price of Comex Gold futures drops to USD 1380.00 per troy ounce. Each contract is now worth only USD 138,000. So by closing out your futures position now, you can exit your short position in Gold Futures with a profit of USD 2,000.

Sell 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,400 per troy ounce = USD 140,000
Buy 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,380 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,000
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking GC at 5% now, my preferred broker offer 3%
Profit = USD 2,000
ROI = 28%

In our case, if we convert this trade to our trading P/L log... Sell $1415 - Buy $1382 = +$33
Risk : Reward ratio = 1 : 4
$3,300 / $ 7,000 = 47% ROI

*1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams.
1 troy ounce = 120 carats

Disclaimer: Margin trading involves Risk, only take calculated risk and do not let greed overtake you.

Related Post:
Gold Futures and Silver Futures
Gold Futures explained (Video)
The Options Guide
Gold on 5th Jan

Van Tharp interview

Howdy! It has been another great trading week, we adhere to our plans, we take profit, we take losses as well :)

Today, I would like share what i read from Van Tharp's newsletter... read the last paragraph with highlights!

What was the intent of your 131R goal?
To pull me out of my comfort zone.
Was that a success?
It was! I made a number of changes from the year prior and gained some very good trading experience doing things I would not have done otherwise (e.g., trading one minute bars and some new systems). And I got out of my comfort zone for gains with a +35R month.
Does not making 131R by the end of 2010 mean you won't make 131R, now, next year, or ever?
Not a bit.
If you didn't get to 131R this year, could there have been something more important that you were supposed to achieve and did?
Getting my family settled in a home, and gaining a much better understanding of myself and how I want to trade now.
Are those are more valuable than 131R?
If you think you are not attached to a goal and then you don't get it but find yourself upset, were you really not attached to it?

How do you reconcile desire/commitment with non-attachment?

I didn't have an answer for this one initially. After some reading and thinking, however, here is what I would say.

Desire and commitment help motivate me to fulfill my purpose. It's possible to use them to move away from my purpose but not useful—regardless of the goal. Goals aligned with my purpose merit my energy and commitment.

Non-attachment is the ability to let go, and it means I have trust in a Divine plan and a bigger picture. With non-attachment to a goal, winning means I may or may not achieve the goal.

Achievement is not my job; my job is to do my very best with the tasks at hand and not worry about meeting the objective. There is a dance here among desire, commitment, and non-attachment that I am still learning.

Van Tharp's Workshop : go to this Link

Tuesday, January 11, 2011


Hi all, I do not have much time for a full posting today, before I go off, I wished to post some quick updates on some major currency and Gold.


Trading near to resistance level, hopefully market continue to retrace, remain same view, only to pick short at key resistance level 1.3050.

Related Post: Weekly forecast (FX)

Position open on USD/JPY.
Long 82.80 SL 82.50 TG 84.50


2308 GMT [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks mixed, hurt by telecommunication companies as investors mulled the impact of the expected launch of Apple''s iPhone for Verizon and as worries mounted over the health of the euro-zone economy. Sprint Nextel fell 2.1% and AT&T shed 1.8% in the wake of confirmation over the weekend that Verizon Wireless will officially announce Tuesday that it will carry Apple''s iPhone, which initially had only been available on the AT&T network. Dupont fell 1.5%, after agreeing to acquire Denmark''s Danisco in a $6.3 billion deal. Investors said the market''s pullback was a natural reaction after its climb in the last quarter of 2010 stretched into last week. Portfolio managers also are waiting for earnings reports to revise their outlooks and see which sectors are poised to do well in the new year. "Earnings in the first half of the year should be pretty good. I''m concerned a little bit about the second half," said Richard Sherry, portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management. "Companies have been doing a good job of managing costs, but as we go through the year it will become more difficult," as investors watch to see which companies are exhibiting growth, he said. DJIA down 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Philly semicons +1.0%. (by:

Link: Dow Jones NewsPlus


Gold is also trading upward and trading near our favourite resistance level, remember we favour 1382-85, and 1391-1400.

Related: Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Although we forecast market to retrace (go up), but don't you see that I do not trade Long?











Monday, January 10, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Bear in play.
Expect a little bit of retracement to pick short @ Resistance 1.3050.
Monday can practise initial shadow for short entry near 1.2940, SL 1.2980, TG 1.2800.
For position trade, short at 1.3050, SL 1.31 (-50 pips), TG 1.2600 (+350 pips).

Beware of Thursday announcement.
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 20:45 (GMT+8) EUR - minimum bid rate
Thursday Jan 13th, 2011 21:30 (GMT+8) EUR - ECB press conference


Favourite pair.  Consolidating in big swing.
Suspect GBP/USD to trade in range before any meaningful breakout is spotted.  Range for the week before breakout: 1.5650 - 1.5400.

Breaking above 1.5700, GBP/USD may find another resistance level near 1.5800, so SL must be set tight.
My preference is to the downside, therefore, picking short near key resistance level at 1.5650 is preferred, with my downside target at 1.5300, and 1.5100 in Feb-11.

My position trade would to short at 1.5660, SL 1.5700 (-40 pips), TG 1.5300 (+360 pips).


Higher and higher, resistance 84.50, 85.90.
Support 82.83, 82.30.
Find good long opportunity near 82.80 or 82.30 region, SL 30 pips, TG at resistance level.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

We attended a power-packed talk at Bukit Kewangan, Bursa Malaysia last Saturday, it is soooooo Great to meet our Sifu and Helen Ong at the talk, we learn to locate our wealth spot and yes~~~ goodness mari mari home~! :) I feel so charged up to meet our Sifu, masters, seniors and KLKK traders and learn together :)

I wish all benefited from the talk and let us construct our ultimate wealth portfolio for a lifetime, together!

DJIA on Monday 10-Jan-2011

Day chart shows DJIA moving in uptrend, support 11530.
This week, we expect DJIA to trade in high-low of 11750-11550. Avoid to trade when market is ding-dong-ing, watch the market and to pick long 11600-11570, SL 11530. Abandon long view in case 11530 support is breached. DJIA may then dip to 11450, and further test 11350.

In view of DJIA uptrend, we are looking forward to DJIA breaking above 11742 (Jan-05 High) this week, progressively to reach 1st Target 11816, 2nd Target 12033 and 3rd Target 12250 in coming weeks.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 10-Jan-2011

Similar to Dow, Nasdaq 100 support at 2237, strong support at 2209.
suggest to pick long 2260 region, SL 2254-2250. Abandon long if Nasdaq 100 break below 2250, it is likely to go below 2240 and further to 2210.

Target exit for Long 2300.

Gold on 10-Jan-2011

Those who followed Ayumi the Novice Trader blog would have know that we are only going to short Gold when it when it travels to 1382-85 for shorts, in other words, if market never touch this level, we do nothing.

It is good that we stayed sideline, the price action is a volatile and the consolidation is simply going to drive your blood pressure to new high, or new low.
Without creating much pressure, and stress, stay out is the best position.


After a serious rally on Gold since Jan-2010, Gold market is due for a correction before this uptrend continues.
Current high of 1430 and 1423 formed a nice H/S pattern.
The low on Last Friday 1352, is this already the low that Gold can go?
Ayumi say no... correction has not finished.
However, the reversal sign on day chart, signals a possible retracement to 1382-85, even up to 1391-1400 resistance.
Only pick shorts at good resistance level like what we mentioned.
1st downside target stays at 1350, followed by 1330, 1315.

Related: Gold on 7-Jan-11


Spotted inner wave down on 3-Jan-2011, and hit 3L Double bottom 28.296.
Market likely to continue south, suggest to pick short on retracement level near 29.300, or 29.800 region.
Downside target 27.600 region.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Gold on 7-Jan-2011 (Fri)

Market has showed little support near 1363 and it is likely to continue its consolidation.
Beware of tonight's Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate.

Traders who still holding their short position are encouraged to take profit near this support.
if market turns up, I am looking at 1382-85 resistance level to plant shorts.

Downside target remain at 1350.

I do not think that market will get any higher than 1391... however, if market has break above 1391, it may rally towards 1400, plan your SL right.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

You can Imagine

Source: The Daily Motivator

Let yourself imagine the best you can imagine. Imagine a world so beautiful and compelling that you cannot help but do all that's in your power to make it Real.

Imagination never runs out. Go ahead and use it freely, for the more you make use of it, the more you'll have.
Every experience gives you more substance on which to base your imagination. And whatever you imagine provides you with possibilities for even more beautiful experiences.

Don't limit yourself to merely imagining what is reasonable. Though reason certainly has its place, it quickly grows stale without fresh infusions of free and untamed imagination.

You can imagine anything, so make positive and meaningful use of your powerful imagination. You can imagine anything, so imagine your way to a life of joy and fulfillment.

Your imagination is truly a powerful skill, and yet once you imagine that is not the end of it. For not only can you imagine, you can take whatever you imagine and find a way to bring it to life.

Let yourself imagine the best you can imagine. Imagine a world so beautiful and compelling that you cannot help but do all that's in your power to make it real.

Read more: GreatDay


Good day! It is drizzling out there, and the weather is cooling, comforting, and relaxing~
Lets have a go thru the updates on all 3 markets that we watch:


Phew! Precision!
We have a good start of the year by shorting GBP/USD earlier at 1.5650, SL 690 (-40pipis), TG 460 (+210 pips), everything has moved pretty fast, that we at Ayumi the Novice trader believe GBP/USD may still have room to reach higher, I am happy that we took profit, closed the position and do not need to struggle to watch the market consolidate between 650-450 (200 pips).

What we foresee is GBP/USD find its base at 450 / 430 strong, and continue to reach higher to 1.5800! sounds crazy huh?  Firstly, GBP/USD must cross above current high of 1.5660 to confirm the rally.  By end of the week, lets see how the announcement will push the market higher.

If not this week, then will GBP/USD reach 1.58-1.60 again before 21-Jan-11?
I do not know.. lets see how things unfold...

Support Resistance remain the same as my previous post (3-Jan-11).
R3: 1.5800
R2: 1.5730
R1: 1.5630 (BKO)
S1: 1.5530
S2: 1.5430 (BKO)
*all figures rounded to nearest 30, or multiple of 10

Related Post: GBP/USD on 3-Jan-11
Related Post: Weekly Forecast 3-Jan-11 (FX)


On 4-Jan-2011 (Monday closing) we forecasted DJIA to find its minor support 11630, and strong support 11530.
DJIA has actually come to a low of 11635 on Tuesday, resisted at 11700, to me, this is a psychological play because I almost think that the momentum would have slowed down... BUT! DJIA edged higher tonight, marking a new high at 11742, closing @ 11722.

what does all these means... We missed the entry (to long), but we still remain the view that DJIA is going towards 11850.

Ultimate TG: 12300
Resistance 2: 12000
Resistance 1: 11850
Support 1: 11630
Support 2: 11530

Related Post: DJIA on 4-Jan-2011 (Monday Closing)
Weekly Forecast - DJIA and Nasdaq 100


updated last night, click here = 2nd Kill, Gold on 5-Jan-2011

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

2nd Kill ~ Gold on 5-Jan-2011

Pattern developed and confirmed!

Remember when I posted the Gold forecast yesterday, Gold was trading at 1415, drum rolls~~~~ it has break below 1400 support level, in which it has turned to a strong resistance, and now went below 1382.
Gold is trading at 1375 now.

Resistance 1: 1400
Current resistance: 1385
Minor Support 1360.
Next support 1350.

Average Day Range for Gold = $13.

little tutorial on Gold Futures:
Product Symbol: GC
Venue: CME Globex, CME ClearPort, Open Outcry (New York)

Contract Size = 100 troy ounces
Min Tick Size = 0.10 per troy ounce
Contract / Tick = $10
1 full point correspondent to = $100

Example: Short Gold Futures Profit
Gold Price @ 1,400 USD, Short
When Gold is trading at 1,399.90 USD = +$10.00
When Gold is trading at 1,399.00 USD = +$100.00

Example: Short Gold Futures Trade
You decide to go short one near-month CME Gold Futures contract at the price of USD 1400.00/oz. Since each Gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold, the value of the contract is USD 140,000. To enter the short futures position, you have to put up an initial margin of USD 7,000.

A week later (or in our case, a day later), the price of gold falls and correspondingly, the price of CME Gold futures drops to USD 1380.00 per troy ounce. Each contract is now worth only USD 138,000. So by closing out your futures position now, you can exit your short position in Gold Futures with a profit of USD 2,000.

Sell 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,400 per troy ounce = USD 140,000
Buy 100 troy ounce of Gold @ 1,380 per troy ounce = USD 138,000
Investment (Initial Margin*) = USD 7,000
* Initial margin requirement, we are taking GC at 5% now, my preferred broker offer 3%
Profit = USD 2,000
ROI = 28%

In our case, if we convert this trade to our trading P/L log... Sell $1415 - Buy $1382 = +$33
Risk : Reward ratio = 1 : 4
$3,300 / $ 7,000 = 47% ROI

Disclaimer: Margin trading involves Risk, only take calculated risk and do not let greed overtake you.

Related Post: Gold on 4-1-2011
Gold Futures and Silver Futures
Gold Futures explained (Video)
The Options Guide

Horoscope and My additional Resolutions

I am reading the Cleo magazine for Jan-11, Love the Yearly Resolution part, and the Horoscope report!!
especially when it says... ♥ it is a great y ear, dear Aquarius! 2011 is all about unexpected surprises, dreams coming through and goals being realised. ♥

And the resolution 2011, I love the idea of the following and I'm going to do this:
1. Pay your bills promptly (Marked on my Diary, yey!)
2. Set aside a holy hour just for yourself (Reminding myself)
3. Eat raw veggies (Reminding myself again, my fav Caesar Salad with Croutons)
4. Stay away from the computer for 24 hours (Great idea! once a month)
5. Turn the phone off for a day (once a month)
6. Meditate. Five minutes or 30 minutes (3.5 times in a week)

Get your own copy of Cleo Magazine~ :)

Do it one step at a day, do 1 major task in a week, focus, and prioritize.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Gold on 4-1-2011

Favourite Head & Shoulder pattern developed, with the right shoulder poised at high 1423.
Resistance2: 1430
Resistance1: 1424
Current Support 1400
Support 1: 1382
Support 2: 1350

DJIA on 4-Jan-2011

Uptrend likely to continue towards 11850.
Market has rally sharply on the 1st trading day, it has break above 29/12/10 high 11630, this level shall act as a minor support the uptrend for this week. Strong support 11530.

Looking forward to DJIA breaking 11850 (2008-08 high) and 12000 and 12300.


US Stocks Close At Two-Year Highs In Strong Start To 2011

NEW YORK -- U.S. stocks started 2011 with a bang Monday, reaching fresh two-year closing highs as improved manufacturing and construction data boosted investors' outlook for the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 93.24 points, or 0.81%, to 11670.75, its highest close since Aug. 28, 2008. The climb represented the measure's biggest move since Dec. 3, the third time in a row it rose on the first trading day of the year and its seventh gain in the past nine sessions.

Bank of America led the measure's climb, jumping 6.4%. The banking giant said it expects to take a provision of about $3 billion in the fourth quarter to buy back bad loans from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that were issued by its troubled Countrywide Financial unit. Investors were relieved to see the size of the hit from the bad-loan repurchases quantified.

Alcoa and Boeing were also strong, boosted by upgrades from analysts. Alcoa climbed 2.7% after Deutsche Bank raised its investment rating on the aluminum giant's stock to buy from hold, citing "growing optimism" for higher aluminum prices and a belief "Alcoa has turned the corner from an operational point of view." Boeing rose 1.8% after J.P. Morgan upgraded it to overweight from neutral, citing an improving outlook for core commercial aircraft.

However, Intel fell 0.9%. Piper Jaffray cut its investment rating on the stock to neutral from overweight, saying Intel is missing the wave of "ultramobile devices," and it expects personal-computer unit growth to decline.

The Nasdaq Composite added 38.65, or 1.46%, to 2691.52, its highest close since Dec. 26, 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 14.23, or 1.13%, to 1271.87, its highest close since Sept. 3, 2008.

Volume rebounded from last week's meager levels but was still below the 2010 daily average. Just over 4.5 billion shares changed hands in New York Stock Exchange composite trading during Monday's session; the 2010 daily average was 4.8 billion.

"There's some real optimism for the market for 2011," said Malcolm Polley, president and chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors. "There's a lot of things with potential for this year."

Polley noted that, historically, the third year of a presidential administration has typically been a positive year for the market. In addition, he has been encouraged by the indications for consumer spending from the Christmas shopping season.

A positive start to the year also tends to bode well for the rest of the year. Since 1945, when the S&P 500 has risen on the first day of the year, it has averaged a gain of 10.6% for that year, according to Birinyi Associates.

If stocks climb during the rest of the month, that would also be a strong indication for the rest of the year. Over the past 82 years, when the S&P 500 rose in January it also rose on the year 73% of the time, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P.

Monday's gains in U.S. stocks followed rallies overseas, with Europe's markets lifted by euro-zone manufacturing data that showed the sector's expansion accelerated more than expected in December.

Boosting sentiment for the U.S., a reading on manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management rose, with its new-orders index jumping. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose for a third consecutive month during November.

The data helped bolster investors' expectations for a host of other U.S. economic updates due this week, including retailers' December sales and the government's monthly nonfarm payrolls.

Among stocks in focus, Barnes & Noble climbed 9% after the book seller said its preliminary holiday same-store sales surged 9.7%, partly thanks to strong sales of its Nook e-reader device.

Clorox tumbled 2.7%. Weak sales of disinfectants, bleach and cat litter in the U.S. caused the household-products giant to project fiscal second-quarter earnings and sales below analysts' estimates.

---By Donna Kardos Yesalavich, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2188;

Comment from Mentor...

Related Post: Reflection

Monday, January 3, 2011

GBP/USD on 3-Jan-2011

Closed GBP/USD short position.
Good start 2011.
+210 pips.

Related Post: Weekly Forecast (FX)
Back to Ayumi Trader

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Finally GBP/USD showed a bottom on 28-Dec-2010 at 1.5342.
Which is very close to a strong support level of 1.5330.  Refer to my posting on GBP/USD 25-Dec-2010.
Good to see GBP/USD rebounded to 1.56 region, and this is also 50% of the fibo retracement from previous top 1.5909 on 14-Dec-2010.
But, how high would GBP/USD go?

R3: 1.5800
R2: 1.5730
R1: 1.5630
S1: 1.5530
S2: 1.5430 (*all figures rounded to nearest 30, or multiple of 10)

My short on 1.5650 works just fine, but it came a bit too early, I guess there're still room for advancement to 1.5800 region.
Therefore, my short at 1.5650,  SL 1.5690, -40pips.  I am going to close this position when GBP/USD is trading at 1.5460, aim for 210 pips profit.

Day range for GBP/USD: 130 pips

EUR/USD on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

R3: 1.3750
R2: 1.3530
R1: 1.3430
S1: 1.3300
S2: 1.3250

I have 2 thoughts on EUR/USD:
1) This week, expect EUR/USD to trade in consolidation within the range of 1.3350-1.3100.
The high of 1.3423 on 31-Dec-2010 act as a resistance.

The low of 1.3053 on 23-Dec-2010 must not be breached, and act as a strong support.

2) If EUR/USD has break above the high of 1.3423, it is going to continue its bullishness until 1.3500, it must make a higher high within this week to confirm the reversal.  And lead us to new high in coming weeks, target 1.40 region.

My position: Sideline.
Day range for EUR/USD: 100 pips

Related Post: GBP/USD on 25-Dec-2010
GBP/USD on 21-Dec-2010

Sunday, January 2, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Resistance 2: 11730
Resistance 1: 11630
Support 1: 11520
Support 2: 11420

Expect the bullish momentum to continue, for DJIA to rally towards recent high of 11630 and further to 11730.
This week, DJIA has to break above the high of 11625 and mark new high to at least 11650.  Failing which would signal a good chance to short and expect the market to correct to 1st support 11520 and 2nd target 11420.

Traders with Long position enjoy the long, slow ride, traders with short view need to wait patiently for a clear reversal sign.

Nasdaq 100 on 3-Jan-2011 (Mon)

Strong resistance of 2240 remain an important level to watch, switch to 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been trading in the range of 2240-2200, with the top & bottom both tested 3 times...

The momentum has slowed down, but the market may rally higher due to after-party.  However, if the price has fall below 2200 in coming week, chances are Nasdaq 100 going to 2185 or strong support 2165.