GBP/USD on 14-Aug-2014

Again, we witnessed EMA50 in 4 hour chart...

Unfortunately I am in bed...
I recall the most frequent sentence:

what you do when you are right, and what action you take when you are wrong.

It matters so much.

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

for the week starting 11 Aug 2014

GBP/USD

Daily Chart bearish sentiment continues.
It has break two support level I quoted, and currently trading around 1.6770.

Dow theory - lower high, lower low.
find opportunity to short, final support at 1.6690.

Trading Plan
Initial Shadow
Short 1.6785
SL 20 pips
TG 60 pips

EUR/USD

slight bearish.
Trading at resistance level (4H chart).

I foresee market to trade sideways between 1.3340 - 1.3450.

Breaking above 1.3450 might turn EUR/USD from slight bearish to slight bullish sentiment.
Weekly Chart is suggesting a reversal pattern.

Regards
Ayumi

Transaction

hm... this is an impulsive trade.
First trade on minor pair.

Base on 1 hour chart divergence.

GBP/JPY short.
Short at 173.32
SL 30 pips
TG 60 pips / close after 1 hour.

GBP/USD on 6-Aug-2014

Market retest support level near 1.6810, rebounded.
from intraday chart, there's a XAB, hitting 2L.
Currently the 50% retracement has completed market could go up to 1.6930 level, but I hope market to trade sideways before hitting target 1.6930.

Trading Plan:
Pending Order to Long GBP/USD at 1.6830.
SL 1.6800 (30 or 40 pips)
TG 1.6930 (100 pips)

1.6930 is also the resistance in 4H chart (EMA50).

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

for the week starting 28-July-2014

EUR/USD
Selling pressure is high after EUR/USD break below 1.3475.

Weekly Chart

Market has break below support and Ayumi reckon selling pressure to lead EUR/USD to another low near blue line (1.3300 - 1.3350) in 2 months time (Sep-Oct 2014).


Daily Chart

bearish bearish bearish, with small Average True Range.
Immediate resistance 1.3500 - 1.3550.

Initiate Short if market failed to break and close above 1.3550.
Check 4 Hour Chart to confirm trading plan.

4 Hour Chart

4 Hour resistance at 1.3475, 25 pips higher.
Will update if any trade initiated.

GBP/USD

Interesting Market
Long term (until October 2014) bullish, target 1.7300.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Affected by strong US Dollar, GBP/USD daily chart is suggesting otherwise.
Bearish sentiment - short term sell.

Day Chart
Resistance 1: 1.7030
Support 1: 1.6920 - 1.6950
Support 2: 1.6850

Cheers
Ayumi

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

GBP/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Weekly Chart

The weekly candle is showing some possible reversal if GBP/USD stays above 1.5100 for the week.

Day Chart
Potential reversal in GBP/USD is less promising compare to EUR/USD.

Breaking below 1.5000 will continue plunge down to 1.4800.

How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has formed a new X in December when it strikes 1.3307 high.
Beginning of this year it has confirmed the B and currently hit 2L.

after hitting 2L market is currently doing retracement, I reckon retracement up to return to 1.3150.

Intraday chart (30M, 60M) is showing stochastic oversold) therefore upside is limited.

Closing below 1.3150 would lead market down below to 1.30, then to strong support 1.2900 (EMA200, Daily Chart).

GBP/USD

pincer top on daily chart is scary (pin bar top), 2/1/2013.
Market shows support at 1.60.

Last week's trading range is big, its volatile.
Market has not been so interesting after loooong time (since Sep 2012).

While I am waiting for next trend to evolve, I am making an assumption:

market to continue moving up slowly to 1.6180 (EMA50, 4H), resisted, form a reversal down, and return to 1.5950 (EMA200, Daily) and ultimately 1.5850.

IF, market didn't break below 1.5950 but continue up, then I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting 1.65.

USD/JPY

New prime minister, QE.
Devalue JPY.

USD/JPY up, up, up.

with unlimited printing, USD/JPY is a safe ride - it just keep going up, no looking back.
currently trading at 88.15 region, I reckon USD/JPY to reach  90.00 and 92.80 in January 2013.

Weekly Forecast (FX) + Gold

GBP/USD

Daily range : 80 pips

Current: 1.6090

Daily chart: Trading in a downward channel, ding dong up and down towards 1.5850 (EMA200) in 2 weeks time.
Intraday chart: bearish, reckon to return to equilibrium :: shall slide from current 1.6090 to 1.6045, hopefully can reach 1.6020 before posing higher.

Stay out.

USD/JPY

Daily Range: 45 pips

The central bank is expected to cut its growth and price projections at the October 30 policy meeting.
Market is led by fundamental developments - weak external demand, strong yen… how would the next stimulus package help with USD/JPY?  Stay close to news and I prefer to stay out.


EUR/USD

Daily Range: 70 pips

Weekly chart: Sideways, contracting trading range, awaiting breakout.
Daily chart: current support risen up to 1.2890, resistance 1.2990.  Strong support 1.2800, Strong Resistance 1.3090.
Intraday (4H) Chart: market shall continue trading in this flag pattern until Thursday / Friday.

Neutral.  No trade.

XAU/USD

Daily Range: $16
Weekly Chart: Bearish, although with a star candlestick pattern, we need a confirmation if market is going to reverse up and resume up trend.

Personal bias:
We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon market to continue trending down from current price $1712 towards $1660, that is -$50.

Daily Chart:
Gold has posted a strong gain last Friday, from low $1700 to $1718 – and this bullish sentiment shall take a breather, retrace to $1709, and challenge $1720 again on Monday.

Trading Plan:
I will hunt for short instead of Long at support…
However, for aggressive trading : I would place a Long trade on Monday near $1709, close EOD or near resistance.
Main objective for the week would be hunting short near resistance $1715-20, target exit 1700.

chart explains far better than words:

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

on Tue 3-Jul-2012

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading towards strong support 1.5800 but the market is somehow showing weakness at current resistance 1.5700.

Market is lackluster and on 30 mins chart it shows the first full black bar and price has traded below MMA200 - a short term trading setup that I seldom use.

I shorted GBP/USD at 1.5675, SL 1.5710, TP 1.5590.
The target price might be adjusted lower if market shows more downward momentum.
Current support 1.5650, S1: 1.5570 then S2: 1.5520.

GBP/USD on Mon 28 May 2012

GBP/USD

Market has shed more than 600 pips from 1.6305 since end of April 2012.

And every time a technical rebound .. last less than a day if not a day, and it is less than 1/3, it indicates that the market is strong bearish.

The Speed of Fall

And market has plunge all the way down towards the main support level 1.5600.

At first, I though market would just come down to 1.5930 before taking off to the next high, but each and everyday I am disappointed because market never find support, and it continues to fall.

The speed of fall, and the strong bear is too strong, coupled with European debt woes, market has generally put their focus on shorting the euros, and moving cash to US dollar, or other US denominated asset.

Bull gone for a month-long holiday

Whilst I wish to hunt for a long.. I am also doubtful of the bull, could the bull return? 

This is just my tiny little hope... I hope a technical digestion to happen.  And… at least, to pull up GBP/USD to 1/3 retracement level, 1.5850 region.

There’s no sign of the bull, as there are no signal reversal signal, no candlestick pattern that support my ‘hope’, and no stochastic level that can prove my viewpoint right.

So, I will do nothing, I will still sit, and wait.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.5667, another 60 pips to strong support level.

If I want to Trade

Yah, I can short, 17 pips above market open, and take profit at 100 pips below.  Which is what a student will do, trade with trend, not with a hope - at least for now, not yet.

GBP/USD Update

GBP/USD on 16-May-2012

Something interesting is happening, timing is almost there.

With the euro turmoil, Greece election, US JPMorgan chase 2 billion trading loss…

We see USD shooting up like crazy..

And so in line with non so good economic data release from the Great Britain side…

Market plunged and now trading at 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Check day chart below.

My method is easy.

Fibonacci retracement, 50%, look for a strong reversal signal, or previous group support.

Here I identified two levels…

Current 1.5930 (red triangle box)

Next support 1.5810 (purple line)

I hope market do not need to fall there (1.5810) but start to consolidate from today, trade sideways between 1.5900 – 1.6050 (150 pips) and breakup to next high next week.

I believe market will repeat the same cycle, and so, for the remaining of the week, I reckon market to consolidate, bias up.

I rather not enter any trade, but hope to long (now), or initiate Long next Monday (save some overnight interest, save myself from weekend news) and lets ride.

Will post if trade was done.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Good morning traders!
Did u switch off for Earth hour last night?

I am early and it is so quiet now… quietness allows me to think best, work best and fast.
I have posted the DJIA and Nasdaq 100 update earlier ^__^ and next! Let’s go to our FX weekly review and forecast.

For the week starting 2nd April 2012

GBP/USD

Happy happy on GBP/USD forecast.
Last week forecast here

Market has found support 1.5810 strong and long trade on Monday is CrazEE!
Market has break above 1.5900 convincingly and all the way to 1.6000 on Tuesday.

It was a roller coaster ride… because market has hit this psychological level 1.6000 and then re-tests 1.5810.
I would be ideal to initiate another long here but I was always hoping for discount, market came down to 1.5850 and rebounded… so, I missed :-P

Momentum is strong and next target for GBP/USD is 1.6150.

We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon rally to continue.
Monday will be continual of the rally towards 1.6050, and then I expect a little pull back to 1.5950 – on Tuesday, and aim to long near 1.5950 (wed) and exit 1.6150 for the week.

My colleague has asked me: Olympic work for GBP/USD?
Think about it…

Cheers
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD

Market didn’t move up as much as we at Ayumi the Novice Trader expected to be. Market has suffered quite a bit of pull back last Wednesday and Thursday morning; GBP/USD traded 40 pips below strong support 1.5810 before it rebounds and close at 1.5870 for the week.

The rebound is not strong and the momentum is not strong enough to sustain the rally unless GBP/USD manage to break above group resistance 1.5900-1.5930.

Stochastic level is normal, so I guess Monday will be sideway, hunt for long near support level and expect to take home 90-100 pips.

Aggressive trader can hunt for Long at 30 pips away from opening, if market opens at 1.5870, then I will queue to Long at 1.5840 SL 1.5800, TG 1.5930 / EOD. Hunt for short at major group resistance level 1.5930, SL 40 pips, TG 1.5830.

GBP/USD on Thu 22-Mar-2012

GBP/USD

According to my weekly forecast, I shorted GBP/USD when they challenge previous week high, but yesterday, GBP/USD make a new high to hit 2L target 1.5926, and immediately come down to 1/3 retracement, found support.

Beautiful chart pattern. Levels were not far from my weekly forecast. But timing was a bit out of sync with market…

However, yesterday short was quite disappointing, my short were triggered 30 pips stop loss, right at the high at 1.5926.

As per weekly forecast, If 1/3 support at 1.5830 is holding up nicely (weekly forecast I call for 1.5810), then GBP/USD will continue the upward momentum to challenge TG2: 1.6000 then TG3: 1.6070 (3L).

If GBP/USD cannot break above strong resistance TG2: 1.6000, then it might come back down to 1.5750.

For my trade setup, I prefer to enter long at 1.5850 region, SL 1.5820 (30 pips, 5 pips below yesterday low), TG 1.5980 (130 pips).

Related Weekly Forecast

Weekly Forecast (FX)

This week forecast starts from GBP/USD.
Irresistible… looking at my favorite market… :-P

Blue horizontal lines represent support levels, Red horizontal lines represent resistance.

Basically the chart marking with (1), (2) --- (5) is my forecast of movement for next week.

The cable surge on last Friday, and I would love to see the surge to continue to hit TG: 1.5925.
Next resistance level 1.5995 (Feb’12 top).

I expect market to pull back a little bit on Monday, support (1) 1.5810, and continue heading to TG 1.5925 level.
After which, I forecast GBP/USD face a little rejection, come down to (3) 1.5780 / 1.5810 – which will be the EMA50 level by that time, found support, and challenge the top again (4).

Next week packed with 8 releases - Here is an important event to watch, if the economic data leave a positive effect on GBP/USD then it shall break above the strong resistance 1.5995 – 1.6000 and go towards 1.6070.
Otherwise, GBP/USD shall come back down to 1.5750 (5).

Economic Data Explained: ForexCrunch

GBP/USD on Tue 6-Mar-2012

Market fallen, it touches our identified support 1.5790 like mentor JC commented, reboudned and approach 1.5900 nor resistance but only close to it.

Highest reaches 1.5886 and market fall for more than 100 pips.

I found a butterfly pattern on 1 hour chart, but it continues to dive south.

Trapezium formed and confirmed with GBP/USD trading below BKO 1.5884 convincingly.

Hunt short, short short short, aggressive short!

If u missed the short like I did, hunt to hunt tomorrow morning at initial shadow 25 pips from opening.

GBP/USD on Mon 5-Mar-2012

For those who follow…
We call for GBP/USD fall 300 pips but our short is 2 days early, market went up to 1.5995, the level which I would have given up to short. So my SL triggered, stopped out, market fall for more than 120 pips last Friday.

I reckon market to rebound from 1.5800 region, stochastic level in 1 Hour chart is quite low and a butterfly pattern is forming now.

So for now market might continue trading down to test support 1.5790-1.5800, rebound to resistance 1.5900.
I forecast market to trade sideways coming 2 days between 1.5790 – 1.5900. Bias downward pressure when market comes back to 1.5900.

Aggressive trader can hunt for short in the afternoon / tomorrow if market resisted at 1.5900 region.

GBP/USD on Tue 28 Feb 2012

GBP/USD didn't cross above 1.5900 and trading in a bearish mode.

Yesterday attempt to Long but I have been stopped out.  Check yesterday posting here.

a Trapezium has formed and if Trapezium works, it will be two weeks of south ride, however, our trading experience tells us the we are constantly challenged with our belief, up? or down?

GBP/USD has traded down to 1/3 retracement, 1.5810 is a good support level, and it is possible that GBP/USD will attempt to test 1.5900 again.
As long as GBP/USD didn't break above 1.5930-1.5950, I am still hunting for short hoping for the Trapezium pattern to work for us.

Intraday (1H) chart showing strength and I reckon market to turn up for the time being,  I queue to short at 1.5870, SL 1.5900, TG 1.5750.