Weekly Forecast (FX)

for the week starting 11 Aug 2014

GBP/USD

Daily Chart bearish sentiment continues.
It has break two support level I quoted, and currently trading around 1.6770.

Dow theory - lower high, lower low.
find opportunity to short, final support at 1.6690.

Trading Plan
Initial Shadow
Short 1.6785
SL 20 pips
TG 60 pips

EUR/USD

slight bearish.
Trading at resistance level (4H chart).

I foresee market to trade sideways between 1.3340 - 1.3450.

Breaking above 1.3450 might turn EUR/USD from slight bearish to slight bullish sentiment.
Weekly Chart is suggesting a reversal pattern.

Regards
Ayumi

Weekly Forecast (FX)

for the week starting 28-July-2014

EUR/USD
Selling pressure is high after EUR/USD break below 1.3475.

Weekly Chart

Market has break below support and Ayumi reckon selling pressure to lead EUR/USD to another low near blue line (1.3300 - 1.3350) in 2 months time (Sep-Oct 2014).


Daily Chart

bearish bearish bearish, with small Average True Range.
Immediate resistance 1.3500 - 1.3550.

Initiate Short if market failed to break and close above 1.3550.
Check 4 Hour Chart to confirm trading plan.

4 Hour Chart

4 Hour resistance at 1.3475, 25 pips higher.
Will update if any trade initiated.

GBP/USD

Interesting Market
Long term (until October 2014) bullish, target 1.7300.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Affected by strong US Dollar, GBP/USD daily chart is suggesting otherwise.
Bearish sentiment - short term sell.

Day Chart
Resistance 1: 1.7030
Support 1: 1.6920 - 1.6950
Support 2: 1.6850

Cheers
Ayumi

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

EUR/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Up or Down?

I favour down...
But I don't discount the possibility to go up to 1.3200 if EUR/USD successfully break above 1.3000 resistance today.

How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has formed a new X in December when it strikes 1.3307 high.
Beginning of this year it has confirmed the B and currently hit 2L.

after hitting 2L market is currently doing retracement, I reckon retracement up to return to 1.3150.

Intraday chart (30M, 60M) is showing stochastic oversold) therefore upside is limited.

Closing below 1.3150 would lead market down below to 1.30, then to strong support 1.2900 (EMA200, Daily Chart).

GBP/USD

pincer top on daily chart is scary (pin bar top), 2/1/2013.
Market shows support at 1.60.

Last week's trading range is big, its volatile.
Market has not been so interesting after loooong time (since Sep 2012).

While I am waiting for next trend to evolve, I am making an assumption:

market to continue moving up slowly to 1.6180 (EMA50, 4H), resisted, form a reversal down, and return to 1.5950 (EMA200, Daily) and ultimately 1.5850.

IF, market didn't break below 1.5950 but continue up, then I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting 1.65.

USD/JPY

New prime minister, QE.
Devalue JPY.

USD/JPY up, up, up.

with unlimited printing, USD/JPY is a safe ride - it just keep going up, no looking back.
currently trading at 88.15 region, I reckon USD/JPY to reach  90.00 and 92.80 in January 2013.

Weekly Forecast (FX) + Gold

GBP/USD

Daily range : 80 pips

Current: 1.6090

Daily chart: Trading in a downward channel, ding dong up and down towards 1.5850 (EMA200) in 2 weeks time.
Intraday chart: bearish, reckon to return to equilibrium :: shall slide from current 1.6090 to 1.6045, hopefully can reach 1.6020 before posing higher.

Stay out.

USD/JPY

Daily Range: 45 pips

The central bank is expected to cut its growth and price projections at the October 30 policy meeting.
Market is led by fundamental developments - weak external demand, strong yen… how would the next stimulus package help with USD/JPY?  Stay close to news and I prefer to stay out.


EUR/USD

Daily Range: 70 pips

Weekly chart: Sideways, contracting trading range, awaiting breakout.
Daily chart: current support risen up to 1.2890, resistance 1.2990.  Strong support 1.2800, Strong Resistance 1.3090.
Intraday (4H) Chart: market shall continue trading in this flag pattern until Thursday / Friday.

Neutral.  No trade.

XAU/USD

Daily Range: $16
Weekly Chart: Bearish, although with a star candlestick pattern, we need a confirmation if market is going to reverse up and resume up trend.

Personal bias:
We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon market to continue trending down from current price $1712 towards $1660, that is -$50.

Daily Chart:
Gold has posted a strong gain last Friday, from low $1700 to $1718 – and this bullish sentiment shall take a breather, retrace to $1709, and challenge $1720 again on Monday.

Trading Plan:
I will hunt for short instead of Long at support…
However, for aggressive trading : I would place a Long trade on Monday near $1709, close EOD or near resistance.
Main objective for the week would be hunting short near resistance $1715-20, target exit 1700.

chart explains far better than words:

Cheers
Ayumi

EUR/USD on Fri 10 Aug 2012

its late.. and the chart is getting exciting.

EUR/USD

it came down, touches first target.
and currently rebounded (sharply).

at the first sight, you may not want to miss this UP UP
may want to enter long immediately?

I took another sip of my Caramel Macchiato...
think back of my big picture..
yeah, I m not that bullish, and since I m having the bearish view, I m gotta stick to the plan, short at resistance.
so, looking at the current slide from 1.2450 to 1.2250, when market move up to 1.2350, I wish to short.

no, I WANT TO Short.

and this time the downward target remain at 1.2200 or 1.9950.
I hv a few pit stops here to take profit which is the support level which shall attract some pull back...

fingers crossed.

Chart attached.

EUR/USD on Wed 8-Aug-2012

Market went up towards 1.2450, without reaching the anticipated resistance level, and fall for 100 pips in 24 hrs.

The range is small, but get to expand a little bit with today's fall.
Unlike what we have anticipated - a sharp fall down, market is coming down gradually, and reach the price level which is neutral - and I anticipate another 24 hrs of sideways movement.

short term view (1 day) - sideways - bias up, towards resistance - 1.2400.
support 1.2330.

I am anticipating a resistance at 1.2400 to enter shorts with TG1: 1.2250, TG2: 1.2150.

EUR/USD on Tue 7-Aug-2012

Market is quiet, EUR is rising against USD amid the poor economic data from Germany, it is moving up towards our target level 1.2500.

This is a level I wished market could show resistance then push EUR/USD back down to what I hope to see (1.9950-1.2000).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

on 6 Aug 2012

It has been a while I don’t get an off day.

It’s the Selangor State holiday in Malaysia, so the KL stock market is open, global stock market is open. I am sitting in front of the PC, listening to Bloomberg radio, watching Live chart, while waiting for my car to be ready.

Life has been so interesting, so complete with all the activities I like. I know there are threats, robbery n its not safe even in the mall car park.. I wish all the Malaysian readers, all readers safe and blessed. Wishing all Muslims Happy Ramadan.

OK, it has been a while… I didn’t post my forecast on currency pairs unless during my bi-monthly issue in the local mandarin magazine.

EUR/USD

Technical forecast

Weekly Chart:

Market is in a bearish trend since May 2012.
Based on the cycle trend, the fall is likely to complete when market hit 1.2000 or worse 1.9950.

Daily Chart:
Although market has not hit 1.2000, it has already shown us bullish sentiment with an inverted head an shoulder pattern.

I doubt ECB would be able to rescue Greece… Spain.. Italy… Portugal.. I still have the idea that market shall fall to 1.9950 – 1.2000.

That was what I feel, based on what we see from the inverted head & shoulder pattern, and the bullish crossing of EMA4 and EMA20, market shall rise to 1.2500.

Intraday 4H Chart:
Market just posted a bearish candle, and after last Friday’s surge, a technical correction is normal, current support 1.2350, strong support 1.2250.

Intraday 60Mins and 30Mins Chart:
Not in overbought zone, I reckon after technical correction, market shall head back towards 1.2500.

Day trade, initial shadow to long near current support 1.2350 exit EOD or 1.2500.

Market is generally optimistic as Greece could meet the bailout requirement and I suppose the bullish sentiment could last for 2-3 days.

However, I still hope market to come down to 1.2000, I choose to day trade than to hold on to Long position – how could Euro continue to surge since the whole Euro Zone is in a life support system, high jobless rate, and weak economic figures?

Trade what I see. Wait what I hope.

Cheers to all
Ayumi

EUR/USD on Wed 4-Jul-2012

I was reading soulfire blog and he kind of reminds me to check my statements and keep track of my own performance.

I extracted my transaction for Jun-2012 month and its a positive result with only 1/3 of my normal number of transactions.

So, rather than wanting to trade everyday, trade when I am certain and put more focus in the market.

EUR/USD

I reckon market to suffer trade sideways bias down during early of the month, and estimate market to pull up after testing 1.2500 support or maximum to the purple support line estimate 1.2400 - 1.2450.

after that market to continue pulling up to 1.2900 resistance level (horizontal red line).

for July 2012, market to trade within 1.2500-1.2900 (400 pips)

4 Hour Chart: I reckon market to trade sideways bias down towards 1.2500 for 1st week of July before moving up.

However, the correction down might not be significant if market manage to stay above 1.2560 (EMA50 in 4H) then it shall not visit 1.2500 but will right away trading up towards 1.2700 then 1.2900.

early of this week hunt for short, and wait for opportunity to long when market approaches weekly support 1.2500 or upward support line 1.2400.

EUR/USD on Mon 2012-06-04

a picture tell all....

I favour short, hope EMA50 resistance serve it well to help resist EUR/USD down a little bit more.

However, breaking above this line might lead to a short term technical rebound - 3 to 4 days may be, to return to 1.2850 - 1.2900 region.  For the bear to gather strength before it continue to drop further towards 1.2100 and 1.1900 (June 2010 low).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD

Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish, strong resistance at 1.5930.

If GBP/USD manages to cross above 1.5950, then it will go towards 1.6130-150.
Failure to break above this strong resistance, would be the confirmation of Trapezium and estimate a fall of 300 pips.

Strong Support 1.5780.

Today’s forecast:
intraday chart is not showing fatigue or divergence hence I forecast market to continue going higher and may go up to 1.6130-150 wave target price.
Anyhow, I don’t really feel like placing the order now.

Aggressive daily entry:
Long at initial shadow near 1.5850, SL 1.5820, TG 1.5930 (strong resistance).

EUR/USD

Good to read: http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-outlook-feb-27-mar-2-2012/

EUR/USD on Wed 22 Feb 2012

Feel that its time to short, plan to short at initial shadow 1.3260 SL 1.3300 TG 1.3140 (ATR or close at EOD).

EUR/USD on Tue 21 Feb 2012

Market has been bullish with Greek bailout and within 1 hour it hike 60 pips or more and hit resistance 1.3250 and almost challenge above 1.3300.

Stochastic level still not too high so I'm not convinced to take a short trade.

Will observe market cuz it tends to move in sideways now.

Checked USD Index and it is almost ready for reversal up thus might be a turn down for Euro if there is no news to stimulate EUR/USD.

Still will observe when market trading at 1.3250-280-or max 1.3300 for shorting opportunity.
But no rush.

Will update if there's a market order.





- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
What we have observed in a smaller time frame (1 hour), could it happen in the bigger time frame?
Check orange vs green lines on chart.

Early of the week: Consolidate bias up to test 1.3200-250.

Mid-week, if market continues to trade below resistance 1.3250, it would have formed the right shoulder for Head & Shoulder pattern, and we just need to wait for the catalyst drive south towards first target 1.2900.

Monday, aggressive Long around 1.3100, SL 1.3060, TG 1.3220 (Day Range / EOD).
Mid-week hunt for short at 1.3250 resistance.

EUR/GBP

The Euro erased its earlier losses against the British pound. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and 1.0% respectively. The BoE boosted the size of its asset-purchase program by 50 billion pounds.

As per market expectation, BoE keep interest rate unchanged.  And injected 50 billion pounds into the market.
GBP fall and therefore EUR/GBP rise.

GBP/USD

Last done 1.5808.
Next Support 1.5700.
Resistance 1.5890.

Market pattern: sideway between 1.5890 - 1.5730

If GBP/USD fall below 1.5800 and this support turned into resistance, there is a possibility that GBP/USD continue to face downward pressure towards 1.5700-730 and then 1.5600.

Short or Long
Short at 1.5850, SL 1.5890, TG 1.5730. 
Long at 1.5700-730, SL 30 pips, TG 1.5830.

Read: Bank of England Boosts Its Stimulus

EUR/USD on 17 Jan 2012 Tue

EUR/USD has been trending up to EMA50 (4 Hour) chart, and it is going towards resistance 1.2850 region.
Check 30 minutes chart we observed a divergence just happened.

I will hunt for short opportunity from now on, however, if market traded above 1.2850 and closed above 1.2880, I will abandon my short but looking forward to EUR/USD breaking above 1.2980-1.3000.

Pocketed 150 pts from US30 (on FXCM) Happy :)
GBP/USD long trade is closing with 100 pips profit soon.

Transaction (FX)

EUR/USD

Market formed high at 1.2820, and like what we mentioned at the weekly forecast, the overhead resistance is 1.2850, and if EUR/USD break above 1.2880, I will abandon short.

I shorted the market yesterday afternoon at 1.2780 but triggered a 30 pips stop loss around 10pm.
This is also the highest level last night.

After that EUR/USD trade down to 1.2740 (-70 pips).

I am looking forward to EUR/USD continue to trade down to 1.2710-20, and reverse to 1.2780 during Asian hour.

Similarly 1.2780 will be the level I hunt for short.
If there's no reversal sign on 30 minutes chart, I will wait for market to test 1.2850 resistance to hunt short.

SL 30-50 pips, TG 1.2550.

GBP/USD

I entered short on GBP/USD yesterday afternoon 1.5475, same time I placed order for EUR/USD short.
GBP/USD has been trading in small range, market neither hit SL, nor TG.

I moved SL to 1.5505 (30 pips) and TG last Friday low 1.5375 (100 pips).