Weekly Forecast (FX)

on 6 Aug 2012

It has been a while I don’t get an off day.

It’s the Selangor State holiday in Malaysia, so the KL stock market is open, global stock market is open. I am sitting in front of the PC, listening to Bloomberg radio, watching Live chart, while waiting for my car to be ready.

Life has been so interesting, so complete with all the activities I like. I know there are threats, robbery n its not safe even in the mall car park.. I wish all the Malaysian readers, all readers safe and blessed. Wishing all Muslims Happy Ramadan.

OK, it has been a while… I didn’t post my forecast on currency pairs unless during my bi-monthly issue in the local mandarin magazine.

EUR/USD

Technical forecast

Weekly Chart:

Market is in a bearish trend since May 2012.
Based on the cycle trend, the fall is likely to complete when market hit 1.2000 or worse 1.9950.

Daily Chart:
Although market has not hit 1.2000, it has already shown us bullish sentiment with an inverted head an shoulder pattern.

I doubt ECB would be able to rescue Greece… Spain.. Italy… Portugal.. I still have the idea that market shall fall to 1.9950 – 1.2000.

That was what I feel, based on what we see from the inverted head & shoulder pattern, and the bullish crossing of EMA4 and EMA20, market shall rise to 1.2500.

Intraday 4H Chart:
Market just posted a bearish candle, and after last Friday’s surge, a technical correction is normal, current support 1.2350, strong support 1.2250.

Intraday 60Mins and 30Mins Chart:
Not in overbought zone, I reckon after technical correction, market shall head back towards 1.2500.

Day trade, initial shadow to long near current support 1.2350 exit EOD or 1.2500.

Market is generally optimistic as Greece could meet the bailout requirement and I suppose the bullish sentiment could last for 2-3 days.

However, I still hope market to come down to 1.2000, I choose to day trade than to hold on to Long position – how could Euro continue to surge since the whole Euro Zone is in a life support system, high jobless rate, and weak economic figures?

Trade what I see. Wait what I hope.

Cheers to all
Ayumi