How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

Dollar Index

Up up and here we go... target 76.00

Related Post: 
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011 http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Update on Aug 2, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/increase-debt-limit-curb-expenses.html

Quick Update on FX

US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the US economic data front, personal spending fell 0.2% in June (+0.1% expected) while personal income rose 0.1% (+0.2% expecting) according to the US Commerce Department. Also, the Senate has approved a deal to raise the debt ceiling by a 74-26 margin.

Source: IG Markets

GBP/USD

Yesterday, highest GBP/USD has gone up 1.6327, and market is consolidating in a narrow range.
My short is not filled.

Last night there's a butterfly pattern that signifies at possible lift, but the strength didn't last. Upon completion of butterfly, I entered a short on GBP/USD at 1.6300.

Obviously, GBP/USD has shifted to a lower gear with the price action below EMA50 in 4 Hour Chart.

Few scenarios:
(1) go up 1.6350-380 to form right shoulder
(2) resisted at EMA50 and continue trade down

Based on the above scenarios,
Again, I will queue to short at 1.6380 and 1.6440 for position trade.
and Holding on to my opened position short at 1.6300 and target 1.6200 support line.

Great Thought for the Day:

Up to you

You will never solve your problems by getting other people to change. The way to move beyond whatever is holding you back is to make positive changes within yourself.

The problem is not the particular situation you are in. The problem is the way you interpret and relate to that situation.

The problem is not the way you are treated by others. The problem is the way you allow the actions of others to affect you.

The problem is not what has happened in the past. The problem is that you’re letting it continue to hold you back.

Take complete responsibility for a problem, and suddenly you are ninety percent of the distance toward solving it. For when you truly take responsibility, you gain real and powerful control.

Fully accept that it is up to you to get where you choose to go. And you’ll find everything necessary to make it so.

by Ralph Marston

Read more: http://greatday.com/motivate/070626.html#ixzz1Tv5cpPVo

Increase Debt Limit, Curb Expenses

美国众议院通过调高债限，预期明天Wednesday凌晨进行审批。

The U.S. House on Monday passed the debt-ceiling deal worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, sending it to the Senate for consideration a day before the deadline for the government to face possible default.

Dollar Index

Moving up...

GBP/USD

Widening range, GBP/USD attempted 1.6469 high, without touching 1.6550,
and plunge the our support level 1.6300, as per our weekly forecast.

I expect a consolidation at current price level 1.6300.
Current resistance 1.6380, 2nd resistance 1.6440.

Will try to short at 1.6380 today, if market triggered my SL and moved higher, I will try again at 1.6440 SL 1.6480 (yesterday high).

if market were to be resisted at 1.6440 my 2nd attempt to short is successful, then GBP/USD would have formed a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.

Looking forward to temp support 1.6300, breaking below this level then we shall see GBP/USD fall to 1.6150 support soon.

Related Post: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD

Unexpectedly shoot up in the last 12 hours, before the weekly candle closed GBP/USD bounces off 1.6250, all the way to 1.6450, 200 pips range.

I cannot explain the price action; basically it is due to fundamentals, as well as the technical resistance on Dollar Index.
Devaluation of the USD... Debt Crisis, Debt Limit, Curb Expenditures...

If you have been reading, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader mentioned the following for GBP/USD:
“Unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.”

Market moved up, and formed a high of 1.6469.
Which means, I will sit back, and expect GBP/USD to continue going up to 1.6550 regions = May 31 high...

Expect good support at 1.6300 if GBP/USD were to trade down on Monday.

Short: Stay out until 1.6550 regions.
Long: intraday trade long near support, target 1.6550 region, or close EOD.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has moved up as per forecast, but, my long entry gets triggered when EUR/USD made a new low before it rally.

The chart look weird with a lower low, and higher high, which indirectly means EUR/USD is trading into a widening range.

Support 1.4340 - 1.4280.

Weekly Chart: Indecisive. Resistance 1.4530. Support 1.4230.

Intraday view: Consolidation bias bullish.
No trade, stay out.

Dollar Index

What we like about it….
Hit Resistance on 4 Hour chart, and a quick correction.

As long as Dollar Index do not trade below 73.50 region, the consolidation shall last for the beginning of the week (another 4-6 bars in 4 Hour Chart), any fundamental news that trigger dollar index above 74.60 will lead all the way… up. :)

1st resistance 75.00
2nd resistance 76.00, Target.

If Dollar Index traded below 73.50, then expect dollar to dive down to May 2011 low near 72.80 region.

Chart tells everything..

Dollar Index

Update after yesterday's posting....

Happy cuz yesterday forecast is right and my favourite GBP/USD has came down.
Dollar index is travelling up to test the resistance as posted in my chart.
Either head up to 74.50, or 74.80 to fulfill fibonacci retracement level before it continue to come down for the week ahead.

Yesterday daily candle is very bullish for Dollar Index.

however, today I expect a little pull up to resistance, then pull back down to 74.00 region.

Lets look at GBP/USD:

Recap what I have done in my weekly forecast:

Resistance 1.6440, forecast the market to continue going up towards this resistance, , unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.

Once 1.6468 has been taken out, expect GBP/USD to go further up to 1.6550 (May-31 high).

Weekly forecast on FX
Related Chart GBP/USD here

Expect a little pull back today and my trade plan:
Short at 1.6400 region, SL 1.6437 (yesterday high).
I have also set an alert at 1.6374, I will observe for reversal sign when market is trading at this level.

Dollar Index

Short Term view: bearish turn bullish
Duration: from now until lunch hour (GMT+8) before London open.

Last Done: 73.69
Target: 73.90, 74.40.
Note: ATR 60 pips.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

This week add 1 column on US Dollar Index...

USD strengthens against most of its major counterparts, and this is what we call a reversal.
Short term resistance 76.505, Target the bullish strength to continue until 77.00 as 1st target.

Daily candle is bullish, weekly candle is bullish, monthly candle (incomplete, 4 more trading days to go) bullish.

crossing above 77.00, next target will be 78.50.  Imagine this, what will happen to the other major currency pair?  Yes, my dear.  Missing the weekly action on GBP/USD or EUR/USD is ok, because, from a bigger time frame, it has just started....

EUR/USD

Thanks to Friday's correction and with Friday closing below 1.4270, EUR/USD is showing a bearish weekly candle and this candlestick pattern indicates more selling pressure.

Weekly Range increased to 400 pips.

Support 1.4072
Suspect EUR/USD to continue trading down to this support on Monday.
and a possible rebound on Tuesday-Wednesday midnight, to 1.4300-350, EUR/USD shall not trade above 1.4400.

Resistance: 1.4300

Trade Short on Monday, Short at 40 pips away from opening price (around 1.4230)
Either close near support 1.4072-080, or close position on Tuesday before 4pm.

I am expecting a rebound around 1.4080 region... If the rebound doesn't happen, add more shorts when this support is broken.  Next, may be in 2 weeks time, we are looking at EUR/USD touching the weekly target 1.3722.

GBP/USD

Monthly Candle (incomplete) bearish --- full bodied down bar.

At first I thought EMA200 should hold and pull GBP/USD up for 2-3 days, no, it doesn't happen, and the falling knife is fierce.  Catching Long would be the last word you are going to hear from this market.

but GBP/USD is trading very near to the weekly target of 1.5850 which is my ultimate target for this short.

And well, if you follow since 2 weeks ago, 1.6450, we short, and 1.5850 is the ultimate target.  But I let go of this Golden Chicken that lays golden egg last week.

I though I would be able to enter again.  And... I am too naive.  I have just lost the chance of making this trade work for me.

Quick short, intraday @ 1.6000, SL 1.6050, TG 1.5850.

I believe upon reaching 1.5850, there will be retracement for 4-5 days, max to reach 1.6240 triple top resistance.  Short here.  Note: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) June announcement on 8th July.

If 1.5850 support broken without any sign of retracement, then, 1.5508 is the next BIG move which will happen in the whole month of July.

Gosh, this C wave is Looooooooong.  Trust the wave.

My feedback on the GBP/USD trade:

My Faith in PowerWave is not strong yet, but I see the power.

Stick to trading the wave bring my trading profit to a different level, but this is not an easy job.. because I always fear of losing the profit.  Imagine u watched the account floating 300 pips, and next day, less than 200 pips, clock is ticking, and the profit went to 150 pips, hanging there, and following day back to 300 pips...

2nd challenge is that: my itchy finger wants to short more, but the short position got triggered (at the false break), 2nd short position at BKO is successful (but because I am afraid of being triggered, I moved SL too fast, and miss another 200 pips, try 3rd time add short, triggered (at the triple top).

3rd: due to the failed trades in 2nd challenge, I see the account back to 300 pips.. 350 pips.. and finally let go of the whole trade, without waiting for 1.6050, or ultimate target 1.5850 to hit.

Well, this is a good experience.

And the shit thing is 4th:
After making the money, then I thought I am the queen, high ego, arrogant, stupid, naive and ignorant.
I totally put the good habit aside, and do the same old same old crazy trades.
chasing markets, too much fear, too many opinion, too many charts, and lost focus.

I don't mind of sharing my profit, nor losses, I know I have to go though this, process.
And I am Happy, because, finally, during this great, good, happy, cooling morning, I finally let all out.

I will stick to the rules, hahhaa.... someone called it SOP may be?
I will do it better next time, thanks to the market, that you have yet to ripped off my profit, but teach me a great lesson.

Hope that you like my sharing, I hope everyone can pass the test.



If you are interested, you can go the thread, and this is the journal of the whole GBP/USD trade.
Spotting the opportunity 9th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-on-9-june-2011.html
Shorted 10th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd.html
Construction of the Wave 11th-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/amazing-wave.html
Position Closed 17th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd-trade.html
My Forcast after the position closed 19th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Thought I am the queen and ignorant trade 22-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/quick-update-on-fx.html
Totally different direction, and missed the finale 23-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/market-update-thu-23-june-2011.html
My confession 25-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx_25.html

Updates on EURUSD and NFP

EUR/USD

has been moving up steadily today after touching its daily initial shadow.
and now moving towards my target price of 1.4633.

I will to close this position before I go to bed. Before that, let us have a quick review of the major economic news today: NFP.

May-2011 Non Farm Payroll

Consensus: 194k (revised to 161k after ADP NFP) Previous 244k
Actual: 54k

Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
The absolute number of unemployed increased fom 13.747 million to 13.914 million. For the third month in a row the Labor Force Participation rate remained flat at 64.2%.

What does it mean?

American employment situation collapse.
Not only NFP lower than previous month, it is also lower than forecast, lower than the LOWEST economist prediction of 65k.

What happened after this announcement?

5 mins after announcement, YM correct -103 pts.

5 mins after announcement, EUR/USD correct -60 pips.

5 mins after announcement, GBP/USD correct -50 pips.

Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD has covered the "damage", while YM is still trading steadily north to try to cover its earlier loss.

And....

The US dollar continue to devalue...
Next support: 73.60, possibly may test double bottom 72.86.

Related: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/packed-with-economic-data.html

Reading: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/may-non-farm-payrolls-54k-below-consensus-165000-unemployment-rate-91