DJIA on 1-Jun-2015

New month - June 2015

I was wrong last week.  I forecast DJIA to go up until 2L Target 18,925 pts, but the same week DJIA shows weaknesses and closed 300 - 400 pts lower to 17,950 - 18,000 pts from its high 18,364 pts.

Overview:
Monthly Trend is still bullish with higher high and higher low
Weekly Chart showing weakness with a probable reversal signal created recent 3 weeks.
Daily Chart showing weakness since 20-May-2015 with lower high and lower lows.

DJIA break below EMA50 (4 hour chart) and stayed below.

I prefer DJIA to swing up to 18,330 pts early June.

With price suppressed below 18,100 pts without fundamental influence, I forecast DJIA to swing between 17,750 - 18,100 pts.
As long as DJIA stays above 17,750 pts - I would keep my slight bullish opinion towards the market.

Trading Interest:
Wait buying opportunities at 17,750 pts area for this week (1st week of June 2015).

What if...
Once DJIA break below 17,750 pts, next strong support is 17,550 pts, once this level is broken, it void my wave label and I shall review.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 19-May-2015

Hi, here's a quick update.

Last week, DJIA continues the bullish sentiment and hit 1L inner wave WTP.
Check last week posting here.

DJIA on 11-May-2015

The sentiment likely to continue and 2L WTP is 18,925 pts.

If I am correct,
Labelling with Blue (up wave from 2015 low, took 2 months to form) and
Green (inner wave took a month to form)
Both suggesting DJIA to break above 18800 pts.

And I would look for Long trade aiming around these target.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 11-May-2015

6 Months not blogging...
This is quite long.

I have traded on Gold and DJIA but didn't post my trade up here.

Finally I have time off, chosen to rest from my dance schedule.
Partly because of some aching and pain in the heels since April 2015.
Doctor said I have Plantar Fasciitism, prescribed some pain killers, advised me to wear supportive shoes, warm up my ankle in the morning, etc.

I was told by Google (haha, Google don't talk - but I think you get what I mean)
unless I get ultrasound - I may have 10% chance of the wrong diagnostic.

So, rest.

I spent the whole of last weekend completing my dance syllabus for 2015.  Did many song editing.

This week, I have reactivated most of my trading app, some MT4 platform that failed to update, and now all are active.

Second reason, is I have free cash to trade again.

======

Thanks to Alex who texted me over May's NFP, and reminded me that I am not alone trading.

======

for the week starting 11-May-2015

DJIA

Since I have not been actively trading...
I removed all my previous waves labeling...

Monthly Chart

Re-look at the Monthly Chart - it is going up, up and up since 2009.

Weekly Chart
The Weekly Chart (below) - DJIA has not been making higher high for 2 months, take the high on 1st March 2015 as its Resistance = 18,280 pts.

Daily Chart
Last Friday, NFP boosted the DJIA, nice white candle up.

I see: higher low, and a recent high (18211 vs 18208 on 23-Mar-2015).
If market cannot break above the resistance 18,280 pts, I doubt the bullish sentiment.

Trying to find a way to trade, I forcefully label the wave structure as below...
p/s: "forcefully" means I may not be correct.

Label with Baby blue XAB (2 Months)
if Market were to break above resistance 18,280 pts,
1:1 wave target price will be 18,820 pts (540 pts to gain).

Innerwave Dark Green (1 Month)
BKO happened, 1L WTP @ 18300 pts, 2L WTP @ 18,925 pts.

Let's say the inner wave (Green) is bringing DJIA up to break above major resistance 18,280 pts, it is likely to reach 18,300 pts (easy) then 18,925 pts.

The above target will be my target exit if I am right.

My target entry, ideally could be the 50% fibo retracement level @ 17,950 pts (EMA50 in 4H)
SL @ 70 pts
TG @ 210 pts

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on Mon 3-Nov-2014

DJIA

Has posted a strong weekly candle after the reversal confirmation.
My forecast was for it to retrace / sideways for 1 week, before hitting target.
However, I am wrong, DJIA shows its superbull and hit target, break resistance and close above resistance.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

base on Dow theory, DJIA is in a strong up trend - higher high - higher low.

Coming up next is to hit is main wtp 17630 (3L)
and if the strong bull continues,
inner wtp 18270 (6L)

4 Hour Chart

I do not have setup to enter a super bull market, candles are way above EMA50 and there might be no pull back... if there is a pull back: enter long at 16950 pts will be desirable.

Resistance:
18300 pts
17630 pts
17530 pts
Support
17200 pts
16950 pts
16630 pts

DJIA on 28-Oct-2014

This week is very important because the FED will end the QE, at least this round..

Weekly Chart

I am happy because the weekly candle has just confirmed a possible reversal.
It closes above 16700, higher than the mid point of previous bearish candle.


Daily Chart
Daily chart turning positive, it has break above EMA200 and most of the moving averages are turning upward.

I wish for a bull but I am also concerned with the resistance around 16950 - 17000 levels.
Not too optimistic, but, If DJIA could break above 17000 then we might see 17200 soon (4L wtp).

This week should be a ranging week, with some potential to return to 16630 level (which is again my favourite setup).
If support 16,630 pts hold strong, DJIA can return to 16880 and retest its resistance 16950 - 17000 pts.

Once DJIA break above 17000, we shall see 17200 soon, may be another week.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 24-Oct-2014

Daily Chart
Yeah, a white candle :D

4 Hour Chart
Hope for another positive - little range day.

I hope Dow could close above 16,800 pts to confirm reversal on weekly chart.
As forecast, Dow posted a white candle on daily chart yesterday, and hopefully the bull continue.

Strong Support near 16,530 - risk it or not, I might enter an impulsive long near 16,630 pts if market keep the sentiment high until Euro hours.

If failed, I would long at 16,530 pts again.
Target for the week at 16,780 pts.

ATR 275 pts, good range.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on 23-Oct-2014

Weekly Chart

I am looking forward to a sudden surge up this evening or Friday, to mark a white candle on weekly chart, in order to confirm the possible reversal since last week.

Daily Chart

Last night's candle is bearish.
Yeah luckily I short :)

It seems like EMA200 is currently a strong resistance to break.







4 Hour Chart

My favourite setup.
Very likely to enter long, SL at low.

Warming up~~~
hope I could enter Long for Dow soon, again.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 10-Feb-2014

Another interesting week has passed.
DJIA has fallen drastically, went to a level too low below my previous forecast, but sustained above an important level which I will consider to change my view.

You will find this information at the comment.

I thank Yong for visiting my blog and leave his comments, that keep me aware and interested to know what's happening.

Rookie trader has started trading mini lot, he used to trade micro lot and unfortunately, he has seen his first loss during the market swing.
He didn't enter any stop loss, but he defined the take profit price.

I am strongly against this practice.. however, he made it to take $50 from the market, CL trade, 1 mini lot.  I don't know why, but he seem to be more attracted to commodities, than equities index.

DJIA

The US gained 113,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate stands at 6.6% – little changed from the previous month. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report was expected to show a gain of around 185K in the first month of 2014 after an initial report about 74K for December. Even though significant revisions were expected, there were only 34K jobs added in November and December than previously reported. The unemployment rate was expected to stand at 6.7%, which isn’t far off the current rate of 6.6%.

Source: ForexCrunch

Last week DJIA broke below 15350, on my FXCM chart lowest is 15338 pts, slightly above the level which I consider changing my view from bullish to neutral (15200 - 15250 pts).

There are couple of bullish movement since Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.

I suspect the market to continue the upward momentum early of this week to reach 16,000 pts.

But beware market might swing down to test 15,550 pts before returning to 16,000 pts.
Next target 16,450 pts.

Related Post:
Forecast 20-Jan-2014 (read comments)

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 20 Jan 2014

DJIA has traded far beyond 2L on a weekly chart.
Inner wave has hit 4L with little exhaustion.

Inner wave 5L target 17350 pts, which is close to 3L target on the major upwave since 2012.

I am holding a bull view until end of Quarter 1, 2014 - as long as taper is going slow.

This week Support and Resistance Levels:
R2: 16570 pts
R1: 16530 pts
Current Support: 16430 pts
S1: 16370 pts
S2: 16315 pts

Nasdaq 100

Bullish on Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow, 5L inner wave target sits on 3710 pts.
Another 120 pts away until end of Q1Y2014.

Nasdaq 100 is always volatile but I am keeping a bullish view, will only take action when I am actively watching the market.

R2: 3630 pts
R1: 3615 pts
Current Support: 3575 pts
S1: 3560 pts
S2: 3535 pts

DJIA on Wed 4-Dec-2013

Profit taking after 8 weeks gain.

From weekly timeframe,
If market formed a nice black candle, it would confirm a reversal and we expect market to find support near 15700 then 15450 pts - in 2 weeks time.
Due to Christmas holiday, we expect inflationary figures like consumer price, retail sales and other fundamentals to keep market up, let's see how it goes.

From 4 hours time frame, I forecast market to test lower before ending higher this week.
Market seem to find support at current level, but have tendency to go lower.

This is how I arrive to my wave target price from smaller timeframe.

The rest is up to market and fundamentals.

Have a blissful week.
Watch out Friday NFP.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 25-Nov-2013

One month has passed and 1 month to Christmas!
I have picked 20 over songs for next year syllabus, collecting photos for my album cover, planning study materials and collecting events, festivals information.

Year 2014 is going to be another fun-filled year, mum always tell me:
you will know it when you need to.

Same thing goes for cooking, teaching or coaching.
Unlike installing software by plugging USB to my body, download / install new knowledge;
Experience were collected with every failure... - only if I take the opportunities, trust my instinct, work hard, and pray.

Dow posted New High above 16k

Dow has posted strong gain - above 16000 levels - another strong month for November (another 5 days to close).

The Federal Reserve maintain low interest rates to ensure smooth recovery.

Latest FOMC minutes bring tapering back to the focus but market still going higher and we believe, market will continue trading higher despite the quiet holiday month in December 2013.

Higher high, higher low, and coming week:
R2: 16450 pts
R1: 16130 pts
S1: 15980 pts
S2: 15880 pts

From technical chart, we forecast Dow to trade sideways bias down towards support 15980 pts - 16000 pts before going higher towards 16130-150 pts.
any dip below 15980 pts would present good opportunity to long, abadon long once market breached strong support level 15880 - 15900 pts.

Long 15950 pts,
SL 15900 pts
TG 16130 pts / EOD
TG2 for extreme condition 16450 pts

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 21-Oct-2013

Soulfire has officially 'migrated' to wordpress.
Visit his new blog address:
http://soullfire.wordpress.com/

I like it very much when soulfire pointed out my misconception:

So when the debt ceiling needs to be raised, it’s associated with prior approved spending that requires the ceiling to be raised. The key to remember here is the ceiling isn’t raised to allow the government to approve new spending, but to pay the bills of the spending that was ALREADY APPROVED. This is where many people get confused, they think raising the ceiling encourages more spending, but what it actually does is just pay for past spending obligations, not new ones.

I suggest you to read his post on Government Shut Down and Debt Ceiling Limit 101

Well I didn't post last two weeks during government shut down.
I didn't even trade.
I looked at market, lost a few hundred points, and go back alive by winning more than 200+ points in 1 day.

Back in those days, I might be immersed with trading, full of excitement, either make some money, or lost some, or being flat.
I am not sure whether I could make money trading during those extreme moments, or I could lost money, lost confidence, or lost discipline.

When market is finally back to 'normal' normal, I continue with my normal posting, blogging and having fun.
Perhaps I am not as aggressive as before, or more accurately, my dancing career has prospered and it has cast my energy away from trading.

DJIA

Techincally DJIA shall continue to rise above 15550 pts but capped below 15420 pts during early of the week.

Support 15180 pts should be a good level to look for long opportunity.

If support fails, next support is 15050 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Way to go Nasdaq 100
Stay out.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 30-Sep-2013

Last trading day for September month.

Image source: http://money.cnn.com
Read their article on: Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling is like my credit card credit limit.
So now I am the biggest consumer and the biggest client for this merchant bank, I make purchases, I stimulate businesses, I ask for anything I want, I give them businesses...
When I can't pay, I ask the bank to increase my credit limit and enjoy the 'free credit' without thinking of the consequences, nor thinking about my capability to pay.

For the debt ceiling of USD$16.699 trillion.
How many times could I expect the 'bank' increases great America their credit limit?
Where actually the money go?
Number of job is increasing, average wage isn't rising, where has 85 billion gone, back to the banks?

Technical Forecast
DJIA

Market is bearish, it shows tiny little support last week and the resistance has shifted from 15550 pts down to 15350 pts.

15188 pts is within reach just early of next week.

I have not been trading real cash for sometime.
I have the urge to trade live already... so far this year the trades were good, till date 10% capital growth is manageable,
10% is not an encouraging number to a lot of traders out there - I still see 'schools' claiming 100%  (or more!) returns - I just don't know how they make it.
I am worried that I would end up losing my discipline again.

Nasdaq 100

Last week was a volatile week for Nasdaq 100
My forecast is totally wrong.

Trader Alex Siew (check my blogroll) said: if DJIA has been falling and Nasdaq 100 is been rising, must be "boh ho kang tau" (hokkien, implies something fishy is coming up).

Technically, Nasdaq 100 shall continue trading sideways in narrow range within 3205 - 3245 bias up (though I am strong bear for DJIA).
Current Support 3218 pts.

However, if DJIA and Nasdaq 100 is co-related, once DJIA plunge below 15150 pts, I expect Nasdaq 100 to follow suit, breaking below 3204 and then sink to 3180 pts.
Otherwise, breaking above 3245 pts, next target 3260 pts.

This seem contradicting and I hope market to teach me more of their co-relations between Nasdaq 100 and DJIA.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 23 Sep 2013

Last Thursday during FOMC statement (Thursday 2am, GMT+8, SG/MY time), The fed surprises market with a decision not to taper, and to continue the monthly USD85billion bond purchase program.

Market is very volatile and we once again witnessed Mr Ben Bernanke's magic wand to entice the market and shock the market.

DJIA

This is not only my forecast, this chart (above) outlined my hope.
First of all, I expect market to continue trading down to support 15400 - 15450 pts and reverse upward.
might face a little resistance near 15550 pts, there're two possibilities:

One:
Market resisted below 15550 pts and continue trading sideways between 15400 - 15600 pts.

Two:
Market breakout to either side, continue trading higher to 15800
or break down to 15200 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Super bull in NQ never dies.
Never tired.  Never need any rest.

Just go higher Nasdaq 100, target 3260 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 16-Sep-2013

Happy Malaysia Day Malaysian!

Yesterday I have completed a mission to alter my new costume.
Ozone.

They are ready for my next performance.
And I hope my Law Hobna Ghalta will be ready by then too.

America

American jobless claims fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 September, returning fear of tapering stimulus in this month.

This week, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting for the opinion of FED Chairman Ben Bernanke in monetary policy for new fiscal year on Thu 19-Sep-2013 2am (GMT+8, SG/MY Time)

Retail sales in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August as the biggest part of the economy struggled to gain momentum. The 0.2 percent increase was the smallest in four months and followed a revised 0.4 percent July gain that was bigger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington.

Core Retail sales increased 0.1%, less than forecast of 0.3%.

Survey reported that Americans worried that higher interest rates will put a damper on the housing market and overall growth.  U.S. consumer sentiment sink to a five-month low in September at 76.8, last month 82.1.

DJIA

Market has totally reversed from its down trend and shoot up to the ceiling.
Stock market is strong.

Market is trading near 15550 pts and still resisted below 15650 pts.

My forecast for this week:
DJIA prone to trade in small range between 15450 - 15650 pts until Wednesday.
I don't see what is coming and certainly market is highly sensitive to news and I prefer to stay out.

Breaking above 15650 pts could bring DJIA higher to 15850 pts.
Closed below 15400 pts would chase Dow to 15180 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 is forever bullish...
Next target 3260 pts.
Current suport 3190 pts.
Strong Support 3160 pts.

If you are another strong believer of the long term bull in Nasdaq 100, entering Long near 3188 pts, SL 3180, TG 3228 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi
~~ here go mind-dancing to my 2013Q4 syllabus.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

DJIA

Weekly candle suggest further upside to test resistance.
Current resistance R1: 15,050 pts, market is trading at 15,015 pts now.
After breaking above 15,050 pts, DJIA shall head higher to R2: 15,200 pts.

Current support 14,930 pts, a good level to hunt long.
ATR : 120 pts

Nasdaq 100
Bullish Nasdaq 100.
Looking forward to AAPL announcement tomorrow.
New iPhone shall be announced, and generally we are also expecting something *new in other i-products.

Once again, Nasdaq 100 break new high.
Support is far away at 3,120 pts.

Next target for Nasdaq 100 @ 3,213 pts.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Winning the Olympics means a boost in Nikkei.
While I am driving to work, I receive a sms saying Nikkei jumps nearly 3% after robust data and winning Olympic bids, courtesy from CNBC RT mobile app.

Last Friday DJIA has a volatile trading day, disappointing NFP figures and market close positive for the week.

News & Analysis on NFP
Marc To Market [read]
Bloomberg [read]
Business Insider [read]

Well I think Bernanke and the company is decided to taper the stimulus.
Just a matter of when, this month, or next month.

But the technical chart suggest sideways going to continue.
I shall update with technical chart later today.
NetDania chart go crazy, will update tonight at 10pm (GMT+8).

Syrian War
Why Syrian War matters to Oil Market [read]
Strike on Syria? [read]

iPhone, Apple, What to expect this week on Stock Market
Week Ahead [read]

I discovered this cool page on world index [Index map]

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 2-Sep-2013

US Dollar was firm against most of its major counterparts on Friday - so does today.

On the US economic data front, both personal income and personal spending rose 0.1% MoM (+0.2% and +0.3% expected respectively) in July.
Chicago Purchasing Manager index increased to 53.0 as expected in August from 52.3 the previous month. Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell to 82.1 (80.5 expected) from 85.1 the prior month.

DJIA
It was a bearish week for Dow since August 2013 and DJIA suffered 4 weeks of losses.
The Dow is approaching its 200 days EMA and we suspect the downfall is going to halt for a while .. and we are waiting for the congress meeting / decision over Syrian Civil war.

DJIA shall trade between 14730 - 15030 this week, breaking either side shall set the next trend.
I forecast DJIA to be bearish during early of the week and test support on Wednesday.
I am slight bullish and intend to hunt long around 14750 pts.

If support 14750 does not hold, expect strong support around 14,550 pts.

Nasdaq 100
I would say nothing much on Nasdaq 100, but a good opportunity to trade using fibo level.
Expect Nasdaq 100 to swing bias up.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Hibernation, and back

I have been silent for the past two weeks, missing my weekly routine.
I guess I keep finding excuses and avoided many commitments.
End of the August Month, we are in the middle of Q3-2013.

EUR/USD
Weeks passed, EUR/USD is channeling up, testing resistance 1.3400 - 450.
EUR suffered steep correction in past two days and currently trading at 1.3230 region.
Current Support 1.3200.
falling below 1.3200 will trigger selling pressure below 1.3000.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rallied in the August month, toppish at 1.5720 region and trading around 1.5500.
1.5500 is also 1/3 Fibonacci Retracement level, next support should be 1.5400.
I forecast GBP/USD to prone bearish trading towards 1.5400.
Intraday resistance at 1.5530.

USD/JPY
Nothing major to expect on USD/JPY, expect further consolidation between 97.00 - 99.00.
Enter short at key resistance 98.30-98.50 with star candlestick pattern is desirable.

DJIA
I missed all the excitement - due to lose of focus.
I thought DJIA would have climb to 16000 level before significant fall could happen.
Correction has extended for 3 weeks since early of August 2013.
What I expect now is for DJIA to continue trading down to 14600-550 pts and form strong reversal signal for me to enter Long.
p/s: I am reading another book from John C. Maxwell
[Talent is Never Enough]
would like to share a snapshot

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 12-Aug-2013

Since the start of August 2013, DJIA has been trading in narrow range.
Last week we finally see some range changes and on weekly chart, there is a bearish candlestick pattern.

Market has been reacting to news, economic data releases, and we are paying a lot of attention for Sep-Taper month.

Taper, or not taper?

With better than forecast economy data, Sep-taper is coming.
However, Federal Reserves convinced us that tapering doesn't mean tightening.

Let's see, i really expect some bearish sentiments...

At the other side, we take a quick look at USDX, it has fallen to 81.30, close to previous low 80.60, which I believe a technical support should happen around this level to lift USDX back to neutral level around 82.20 - 82.90.

Till then DJIA shall begin its correction back to 15,180 pts.

This week I forecast market to trade sideways bias down to test 15,260 pts, then to recover to 15,450 pts.

Looking forward to a wave formation.

Cheers
Ayumi