There are a few economic releases traders will be eyeing Wednesday, but the main topic will once more be the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will give there Friday.
Today (Wednesday)
economic data includes:
10pm SG/MY Time: pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET
8:30pm SG/MY Time: second look at second quarter GDP, at 8:30 a.m ET.
2am SG/MY Time (Thursday)
The biggest release of the day comes at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed puts out its beige book on the economy, which is sure to be picked over for any discussion of employment.
Read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48816277
Hurricane Isaac is affecting the energy prices, check NYMEX Crude.
Showing posts with label CL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CL. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Sunday, February 12, 2012
CFD no more, LCP
As you see, I have been trading on FXCM and today I log into IG markets and realised that CFD for commodities is no longer available here.
They introduced new product = LCP
“Leveraged Commodity Product” or “LCP” means an OTC commodity contract on a margin basis (other than a commodity futures contract) whereby a person undertakes, as determined by the terms and conditions of the contract, to pay an amount of money determined or to be determined by reference to the change in value of a commodity over a specified period of time;
The new contract size is now:
Gold
1. Standard Contract = 100 troy oz / margin requirement USD1700
2. SGD denominated contract = SGD$10 (SGD1 x min 10 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$170 (SGD17 x min 10 contracts)
Silver
1. Standard Contract = 5000 troy oz / margin requirement USD3000
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$300 (SGD60 x min 5 contracts)
Light Crude Oil (US)
1. Standard Contract = USD 10 per full point / margin requirement USD1500
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$750 (SGD150 x min 5 contracts)
They introduced new product = LCP
“Leveraged Commodity Product” or “LCP” means an OTC commodity contract on a margin basis (other than a commodity futures contract) whereby a person undertakes, as determined by the terms and conditions of the contract, to pay an amount of money determined or to be determined by reference to the change in value of a commodity over a specified period of time;
The new contract size is now:
Gold
1. Standard Contract = 100 troy oz / margin requirement USD1700
2. SGD denominated contract = SGD$10 (SGD1 x min 10 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$170 (SGD17 x min 10 contracts)
Silver
1. Standard Contract = 5000 troy oz / margin requirement USD3000
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$300 (SGD60 x min 5 contracts)
Light Crude Oil (US)
1. Standard Contract = USD 10 per full point / margin requirement USD1500
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$750 (SGD150 x min 5 contracts)
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Blessed 2011
Looking back… and looking forward.
I am blessed.
**I went to RT Pastry yesterday; I pointed at this cake and told the girl I wanted this Green Tea cake. Then realized this cake is smaller than the regular small cake, it is only 300 grams! **
**Special Cake for Special Event, for a special person like myself and family! **
I though 2011 was a bad year… and last night while reflecting how I spent my 2011… I found -- this is the most meaningful year for me.
I experienced the ups and downs being a trader, won the lottery - big wins, how I hit the jackpot for Gold rally, DJIA, and CL… and also lost a big chunk of money in GTI, many small losses FX.
These losses seems to occur towards end of the year… this central tendency made me wonder if 2011 was a bad year. Reflection is a powerful tool, if you roll back, and counting the blessing, you'll find the world a better place.
I successfully became a certified coach for APSRI Trader ProMaster module. Carried out a few workshops. It is a paradigm shift and I learned many things over the journey. Mentor teaches me to me compassionate, introduces me to meditation, APSRI team coaches - Trader Investor Point let me post in their FB wall, Ajahn Brahm teaches us to be kind. Yes, helping others enrich our lives.
I successfully became a regular instructor in Chi Fitness, and also successfully choreographed belly dance songs, and teaching them. I am also building my syllabus.
And… by looking at my past belly dancing videos, *glad that I grab opportunity to video* by looking into my past performances, I have travelled a distance. I see the improvement in myself and I am glad I did.
Attended numerous workshops, learned from Hadia, Serkan Tutar, Wael Mansour, Percy Yeoh, Mercedes Nieto, Sandra, etc… I am thankful for all the workshops I attended, although I may not be the one who can remember the steps (yeah… I am not good in that) I would say learning from Sandra and Mercedes Nieto helps a lot! They are detail, systematic and they know how to teach the feminine sensuality in dance, how to perform and how to practice.
And… having been blogging since 2007 (yeah, 5 years has past); I written my first mandarin article and published in a bi-monthly issue Capital Asia by Business Media International.
Along the way there are challenges… Software, Dance, Coaching, Forum writing, blogging, financial column, trading, investing, it is tough to balance my time in between, thanks to my family who has been supportive, thanks to my friends who had trusted me, thanks to my colleague who has been keeping my secrets, thanks to my superior RN and my understanding lady boss BL.
I love 2011.
And I am going to excel higher, and make 2012 another meaningful year.
Bless all
Ayumi
I am blessed.
**Special Cake for Special Event, for a special person like myself and family! **
I though 2011 was a bad year… and last night while reflecting how I spent my 2011… I found -- this is the most meaningful year for me.
I experienced the ups and downs being a trader, won the lottery - big wins, how I hit the jackpot for Gold rally, DJIA, and CL… and also lost a big chunk of money in GTI, many small losses FX.
These losses seems to occur towards end of the year… this central tendency made me wonder if 2011 was a bad year. Reflection is a powerful tool, if you roll back, and counting the blessing, you'll find the world a better place.
I successfully became a certified coach for APSRI Trader ProMaster module. Carried out a few workshops. It is a paradigm shift and I learned many things over the journey. Mentor teaches me to me compassionate, introduces me to meditation, APSRI team coaches - Trader Investor Point let me post in their FB wall, Ajahn Brahm teaches us to be kind. Yes, helping others enrich our lives.
I successfully became a regular instructor in Chi Fitness, and also successfully choreographed belly dance songs, and teaching them. I am also building my syllabus.
And… by looking at my past belly dancing videos, *glad that I grab opportunity to video* by looking into my past performances, I have travelled a distance. I see the improvement in myself and I am glad I did.
Attended numerous workshops, learned from Hadia, Serkan Tutar, Wael Mansour, Percy Yeoh, Mercedes Nieto, Sandra, etc… I am thankful for all the workshops I attended, although I may not be the one who can remember the steps (yeah… I am not good in that) I would say learning from Sandra and Mercedes Nieto helps a lot! They are detail, systematic and they know how to teach the feminine sensuality in dance, how to perform and how to practice.
And… having been blogging since 2007 (yeah, 5 years has past); I written my first mandarin article and published in a bi-monthly issue Capital Asia by Business Media International.
Along the way there are challenges… Software, Dance, Coaching, Forum writing, blogging, financial column, trading, investing, it is tough to balance my time in between, thanks to my family who has been supportive, thanks to my friends who had trusted me, thanks to my colleague who has been keeping my secrets, thanks to my superior RN and my understanding lady boss BL.
I love 2011.
And I am going to excel higher, and make 2012 another meaningful year.
Bless all
Ayumi
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
CL Update on 6-Dec-2011
Weekly chart seems bullish. With a tendency to test last month’s high 103.37. If market break above 103.37, then it will continue to rise to 106.85.
From Daily chart, yesterday’s black candle seems to be a beginning of a correction,
If market close a black candle below 99.50 then it might lead the start of correction.
However, from intraday chart, there’s no sign of retracement, stochastic is low, and current support 100.20 hold.
Today’s view is Up.
To pick long at current support near 100.20 – 100.50, SL 99.80 and aim to exit at 102.00.
If market break below and close below 99.50, I will abandon long.
From Daily chart, yesterday’s black candle seems to be a beginning of a correction,
If market close a black candle below 99.50 then it might lead the start of correction.
However, from intraday chart, there’s no sign of retracement, stochastic is low, and current support 100.20 hold.
Today’s view is Up.
To pick long at current support near 100.20 – 100.50, SL 99.80 and aim to exit at 102.00.
If market break below and close below 99.50, I will abandon long.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
CL on 8-Sep-2011
Wohoooo.... CL after touching 83.20 channel bottom, did a little congestion and bounced up above 90.00 region, last night it went up to highest 90.48.
It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...
Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.
Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).
Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.
2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?
Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...
From 1 Hour Chart...
Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.
I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).
Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.
Will post my trade if any were done.
Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...
Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.
Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).
Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.
2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?
Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...
From 1 Hour Chart...
Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.
I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).
Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.
Will post my trade if any were done.
Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Transaction
Opened Position:
*New Short CL 8046 SL 8146 (-100) TG 7596 (+450) x 2
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Closed Position:
Triggered SL for GBP/USD antenna top trade (-40). Formed triple pincer, breakout and reach intraday high 1.6366.
Triggered SL for GBP/USD intraday short trade. GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
Took Profit for Long GBP/USD butterfly trade.
*New Short CL 8046 SL 8146 (-100) TG 7596 (+450) x 2
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Closed Position:
Triggered SL for GBP/USD antenna top trade (-40). Formed triple pincer, breakout and reach intraday high 1.6366.
Triggered SL for GBP/USD intraday short trade. GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
Took Profit for Long GBP/USD butterfly trade.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Crude oil futures - Weekly review: August 1 - 5
Source: http://www.poten.com/NewsDetails.aspx?id=11501256
Aug, 07, 2011 08:14 AM - Benzinga Lightning Feed
Aug, 07, 2011 08:14 AM - Benzinga Lightning Feed
Last week saw crude oil futures fall sharply, tumbling to a nine-month low on Friday before pulling back, as concerns over the U.S. economic recovery and lingering fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone prompted investors to shun riskier assets.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures (NYMEX, CL) for delivery in September traded at USD87.08 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, plunging 9.5% over the week, its second consecutive weekly decline and the biggest drop since early May.
It earlier fell to USD83.03 a barrel, the lowest price since November 26, 2010.
Crude prices bounced off the nine-month low on Friday after the U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payrolls rose by 117,000 in July, above expectations for an increase of 95,000, while the previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 46,000 from a previously reported 18,000.
The unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 9.1% from 9.2%, the first decline in four months.
However, the better-than-expected jobs data failed to ease fears that the U.S. economic recovery was stalling, after a flurry of weak data earlier in the week fuelled concerns over a possible double-dip recession, underlining concerns over the short-term demand outlook from the world’s largest oil consumer.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. crude supplies increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, rising for the second consecutive week.
Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a 0.5 million barrel increase and the biggest gain since early April.
Global financial service provider Credit Agricole lowered its one-month price forecast for crude to USD85 a barrel, citing the uncertain economic outlook, it said in a report on Friday.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures (ICE, BRN) for September delivery traded at USD109.49 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 6.3% on the week and up USD22.41 on its U.S. counterpart.
After markets closed Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating by one notch to AA+ from AAA, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting a further downgrade could be possible within the next 12 to 18 months.
S&P said the debt ceiling deal reached by lawmakers to cut the federal deficit by an estimated USD2.1 trillion over a decade did not go far enough and “America’s governance and policymaking is becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed.”
In the week ahead, markets will get their first chance to react to the historic U.S. debt downgrade. Traders will also be paying close attention to Tuesday’s Federal Reserve rate announcement and its statement on monetary policy for any hints regarding further easing.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Transaction
Short GBP/USD last night at 1.6149, SL 1.6179, TG 1.6009.
Floating +33 pips.
Short CL (September-11) last night at 9775 SL 9815 (triggered stop loss)
Realised - 40 ticks
Queue to short CL (September-11) just now at 9964, SL 9990, TG 9660.
Pending.
Floating +33 pips.
Short CL (September-11) last night at 9775 SL 9815 (triggered stop loss)
Realised - 40 ticks
Queue to short CL (September-11) just now at 9964, SL 9990, TG 9660.
Pending.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
CL on 19-July-2011
CL outlook:
Daily Chart: Consolidation.
Short term (1 Hour Chart): Bullish, towards 97.50
If managed to break above 97.75, then CL might go all the way to 99.20-40 resistance area.
Favour Short upon reaching 97.50, or 99.20 resistance.
Target exit at support 96.00, 94.50, ultimate 93.55-93.35 major support.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Quick Update
It will be a quick one, again :)
GBP/USD
Cable resisted at 1.6200 still....
Yesterday I queue to short at 1.6160, but order was not filled.
This morning GBP/USD crossed above 1.6160 and I am thinking twice...
Lets look at Daily Chart, the pattern repeat... and... should GBP/USD continue to be suppressed under 14/7 high 1.6192, or it is gonna make a false break to 1.6280 and come down?
I am hunting for the next Big move, I am getting excited since yesterday, and observing my patience... I want to catch the fall like last round at 1.6450.
It is Friday, and today is a crucial day, I reckon the market to either:
1. resisted below 1.6200 or;
2. form another top near 1.6280,
then close below 1.6030 to form a another bearish candle on weekly chart, daily chart, and next week a continuous pattern.
I hope it is today, but not Monday.
Observe intraday chart for the shorting opportunity.
CL
Trading the August Contract and covered short @ 9546 happy with 300 pips / cents, leaving with 1 open position.
Queue to short again @ 9610, SL 9656, TG 9386.
p/s:
The moment I finish this journal, I actually ordered to sell GBP/USD at 1.6255, SL 1.6287, TG 1.6002.
GBP/USD
Cable resisted at 1.6200 still....
Yesterday I queue to short at 1.6160, but order was not filled.
This morning GBP/USD crossed above 1.6160 and I am thinking twice...
Lets look at Daily Chart, the pattern repeat... and... should GBP/USD continue to be suppressed under 14/7 high 1.6192, or it is gonna make a false break to 1.6280 and come down?
I am hunting for the next Big move, I am getting excited since yesterday, and observing my patience... I want to catch the fall like last round at 1.6450.
It is Friday, and today is a crucial day, I reckon the market to either:
1. resisted below 1.6200 or;
2. form another top near 1.6280,
then close below 1.6030 to form a another bearish candle on weekly chart, daily chart, and next week a continuous pattern.
I hope it is today, but not Monday.
Observe intraday chart for the shorting opportunity.
CL
Trading the August Contract and covered short @ 9546 happy with 300 pips / cents, leaving with 1 open position.
Queue to short again @ 9610, SL 9656, TG 9386.
p/s:
The moment I finish this journal, I actually ordered to sell GBP/USD at 1.6255, SL 1.6287, TG 1.6002.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Quick Update
CL
CL has break out above the triple top resistance (4 Hour and 1 Hour chart), My 1st trade to Short CL were triggered stop loss of 40 cents.
Like what I mentioned yesterday CL may form a false break to 96.03, but it has break up all the way to 97.00 region and currently trading slow.
Therefore, my view on CL has switched from bearish, to bullish.
Lets see yesterday trade setup, shorted at triple top, and the price action after breaking the top.
Observe the price action at this level, it has invalidate my previous forecast, therefore, I turned from bearish, to bullish on CL, forecast the bullish sentiment to continue until $99.80.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD rebounded when it touched 1.6000, lowest 1.5988.
I took profit at 100 pips and GBP/USD is trading at 1.6070.
Market direction: Range bound.
Similarly, today I will do intraday trade with Fibo Range:
1) to Short @ 1.6134 SL 1.6174 TG 1.6030
2) to Long @ 1.5980 SL 1.5940 TG 1.6080
GBP/USD will be super bearish once it cross below 1.5900.
CL has break out above the triple top resistance (4 Hour and 1 Hour chart), My 1st trade to Short CL were triggered stop loss of 40 cents.
Like what I mentioned yesterday CL may form a false break to 96.03, but it has break up all the way to 97.00 region and currently trading slow.
Therefore, my view on CL has switched from bearish, to bullish.
Lets see yesterday trade setup, shorted at triple top, and the price action after breaking the top.
Observe the price action at this level, it has invalidate my previous forecast, therefore, I turned from bearish, to bullish on CL, forecast the bullish sentiment to continue until $99.80.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD rebounded when it touched 1.6000, lowest 1.5988.
I took profit at 100 pips and GBP/USD is trading at 1.6070.
Market direction: Range bound.
Similarly, today I will do intraday trade with Fibo Range:
1) to Short @ 1.6134 SL 1.6174 TG 1.6030
2) to Long @ 1.5980 SL 1.5940 TG 1.6080
GBP/USD will be super bearish once it cross below 1.5900.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Quiet Day.... CL
It is a quiet trading day yesterday.
Lets see some chart...
Added CL into my trading watch list,
27th June, CL hit low 89.61 and well supported at 200 days moving average, after 2 days of rebound, hitting 95.84 high on 30th June, it is currently resisted at 95.50-95.80 it has been doing 3 days of consolidation, currently trading at 94.95.
To fulfil my wave reading, CL need to at least rebound 50% to 96.03, but with current bearish sentiment (lower high, lower low on 1 hour chart), we may only see a 1/3 retracement, then CL continue to trade down. Although I favour to short this market, I reckon 2 secarios:
1. False break to 96.03, form divergence in small time frame (30 mins), form reversal candlestick and down.
2. Resisted at 95.50-95.80 region, waiting for fundamental news trigger sell down to break 93.80-93.40, and going to support 92.40. While I prefer this to happen...
Intraday trade:
Short at initial shadow (50 cents) 94.95 + 0.50 = 95.45
SL 95.85
TG 93.85
Lets see some chart...
Added CL into my trading watch list,
27th June, CL hit low 89.61 and well supported at 200 days moving average, after 2 days of rebound, hitting 95.84 high on 30th June, it is currently resisted at 95.50-95.80 it has been doing 3 days of consolidation, currently trading at 94.95.
To fulfil my wave reading, CL need to at least rebound 50% to 96.03, but with current bearish sentiment (lower high, lower low on 1 hour chart), we may only see a 1/3 retracement, then CL continue to trade down. Although I favour to short this market, I reckon 2 secarios:
1. False break to 96.03, form divergence in small time frame (30 mins), form reversal candlestick and down.
2. Resisted at 95.50-95.80 region, waiting for fundamental news trigger sell down to break 93.80-93.40, and going to support 92.40. While I prefer this to happen...
Intraday trade:
Short at initial shadow (50 cents) 94.95 + 0.50 = 95.45
SL 95.85
TG 93.85
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