Monday, January 28, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the Week Starting 28-Jan-2013

Last Friday, DJIA closes at 13,896.00 pts

Jobless claims was down 5,000 to 330,000 in the week ended 19 January, lower than median forecast; sustained gains in hiring is positive. However, the government might reach USD16.4 trillion debt ceiling in mid-February and U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner reiterates budget cut.


Last week we forecasted market to reach 13,750 pts, and market has risen higher even to reach 13,896 pts.  As per our forecast last week:

Once market has taken out 13750 then it might continue heading north towards 14k, and then 14120 pts. Otherwise we expect some consolidation to take place before another significant trend is formed.

We maintain the same view.

Related Post: DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for 21-Jan-2013

Nasdaq 100

Have you read something about the correlation between Gold and AAPL?

Nasdaq 100 has progress well above EMA50 beginning of last week but on 23-Jan-2013 (Wed) market has formed a long bodied black candle down and erased the earlier gains.

Nasdaq 100 has once again trading around EMA50 and we reckon the same pattern to continue - trading sideways bias up as long as market didn't fall below 2695 - 2700 pts.

No trading signal for Nasdaq 100, no trading recommendation.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for Week Starting 21-Jan-2013

University of Michigan preliminary index of Consumer Sentiment dropped from 72.9 to 71.3, lowest since December 2011.  Economy, employment  is growing at a tepid rate and consumer sentiment is low, market is positive after announcement of unemployment benefit – first time claim of unemployment benefit fall to a 5 year low.


DJIA has risen to a 5 year high after the US government reported a sharp rise in number of new homes being built last month, and to the expectation of raising debt ceiling.

From Monthly Chart – so far January candle is a full bodied white candle and it possesses potential to rise higher to close near 13750 pts. for the month.

We generally expect US to raise debt ceiling and equities will continue to rise until the voting completed.

Weekly Candle – bullish
Daily Candle – bullish, capped below 13678 pts.
Intraday: Identified Support near 13,580 pts. and market is likely to continue rising above 13,700 towards 13,750 pts.

Once market has taken out 13750 then it might continue heading north towards 14k, and then 14120 pts.  Otherwise we expect some consolidation to take place before another significant trend is formed.

Nasdaq 100

Market is trading to test support near EMA50 (4H), we observed market rebounded almost every time it tested EMA50.  However, from 30 minutes and 60 minutes time frame, market was trading sideways bias down in the past week but managed to break up on last 4 hours.

We reckon market to continue trading upward on Monday, target limit to 2747 pts., support 2736 pts.


Monday, January 14, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 14-Jan-2013 Mon


DJIA has been trading slow since last Thursday.
suspect market to face resistance today and consolidate within 13450 - 13520 pts.

If market fall below 13450 then it shall reach strong support 13380 pts soon before rebound up to resistance 13520 pts again.

Nasdaq 100

Reckon market to continue up towards 2775 pts.

However, buying at current level is risky, suggest to enter long when market consolidate and test strong support 2720 pts before resuming up trend to reach target 2775 pts.


Monday, January 7, 2013

First trade 2013

First trade of the year.
My humble beginning of FX (again).

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Weekly Forecast (FX)


EUR/USD has formed a new X in December when it strikes 1.3307 high.
Beginning of this year it has confirmed the B and currently hit 2L.

after hitting 2L market is currently doing retracement, I reckon retracement up to return to 1.3150.

Intraday chart (30M, 60M) is showing stochastic oversold) therefore upside is limited.

Closing below 1.3150 would lead market down below to 1.30, then to strong support 1.2900 (EMA200, Daily Chart).


pincer top on daily chart is scary (pin bar top), 2/1/2013.
Market shows support at 1.60.

Last week's trading range is big, its volatile.
Market has not been so interesting after loooong time (since Sep 2012).

While I am waiting for next trend to evolve, I am making an assumption:

market to continue moving up slowly to 1.6180 (EMA50, 4H), resisted, form a reversal down, and return to 1.5950 (EMA200, Daily) and ultimately 1.5850.

IF, market didn't break below 1.5950 but continue up, then I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting 1.65.


New prime minister, QE.
Devalue JPY.

USD/JPY up, up, up.

with unlimited printing, USD/JPY is a safe ride - it just keep going up, no looking back.
currently trading at 88.15 region, I reckon USD/JPY to reach  90.00 and 92.80 in January 2013.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I hv been sitting here whole evening, not knowing the time has passed. Time seems to have stopped.

Something has happened.
My mind is somehow disturbed with this new change. And I can't get rid of them.

I hope I can live in harmony with them, the thoughts, the feelings.


There are no spending cuts, only tax increases.
Tax bracket increased from 250k to 450k.
The short term solution to the fiscal cliff has bring market to new highs.

Honestly I am not able to sync with the market with the rumors over fiscal cliff and Fed's unlimited money supply.  I would like to say I am jealous.

When I have borrowed enough for next 5 years, I borrow my quota for next 10 years, to pay off what I have borrowed 5 years ago... unlimited money supply and unlimited friendships.  According to news sooner or later (1-2 months) US may face debt ceiling call.

Technical Chart
Weekly Forecast

Market had a bullish week DJIA shoot up, gap up, up and up.

Consolidation is taking place and I reckon market to swing bias up.

Stochastic is high, not high enough.
initial shadow is diminishing and on Monday, I expect market to trade to 13400, then higher towards 13480-500 before stochastic hitting oversold.

Towards Tuesday/ Wednesday:
down to close the gap 13150-13250 pts and resume limited range capped below 13600.  Close the week with another white candle below 13550.

Nasdaq 100

downside support 2670, 2690.
Resistance 2780.

Stay out.