Sunday, March 25, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


Last Friday DJIA tested strong support 13000, rebounded, and closed at 13080.73 pts. For the week, DJIA fell 1.2%.

From weekly chart:
DJIA has posted a negative candle and therefore next week although it might continue trading sideways, we expect bias to the downside to test 13000 support again.

From intraday chart (1 hour and 30 mins):
DJIA is currently trading near overbought region and prone to a short term correction.

Resistance 13150
Support 13000

Aggressive short term trader can aim to short near 13120 – 13150, SL 13150-180, expect the market to test 13000 pts. again.

From a broader aspect, market is still trending up, a short term retracement is natural and we expect 13000 pts. to hold market up strongly (Fibo 50%), if this happen, then market will go up to 13250 level again.

Beware of Eurozone debt crisis and outbreak of negative fundamental news - it might affect the market - if DJIA cannot sustain above 13000, then it will go to next strong support level 12850.


Never a black candle!
Nasdaq 100 is going up so strong I see that nothing can stop it.

This week, we forecast NASDAQ 100 both going to test 2720 support or strong support 2700, and then rebound to make a new high this week.

Day Range: 25 pts.
Current support (intraday): 2720 pts.
Strong Support: 2700 pts.

Target for the week: 2740 pts.

Long Long Long :)

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Market didn’t move up as much as we at Ayumi the Novice Trader expected to be. Market has suffered quite a bit of pull back last Wednesday and Thursday morning; GBP/USD traded 40 pips below strong support 1.5810 before it rebounds and close at 1.5870 for the week.

The rebound is not strong and the momentum is not strong enough to sustain the rally unless GBP/USD manage to break above group resistance 1.5900-1.5930.

Stochastic level is normal, so I guess Monday will be sideway, hunt for long near support level and expect to take home 90-100 pips.

Aggressive trader can hunt for Long at 30 pips away from opening, if market opens at 1.5870, then I will queue to Long at 1.5840 SL 1.5800, TG 1.5930 / EOD. Hunt for short at major group resistance level 1.5930, SL 40 pips, TG 1.5830.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

GBP/USD on Thu 22-Mar-2012


According to my weekly forecast, I shorted GBP/USD when they challenge previous week high, but yesterday, GBP/USD make a new high to hit 2L target 1.5926, and immediately come down to 1/3 retracement, found support.

Beautiful chart pattern. Levels were not far from my weekly forecast. But timing was a bit out of sync with market…

However, yesterday short was quite disappointing, my short were triggered 30 pips stop loss, right at the high at 1.5926.

As per weekly forecast, If 1/3 support at 1.5830 is holding up nicely (weekly forecast I call for 1.5810), then GBP/USD will continue the upward momentum to challenge TG2: 1.6000 then TG3: 1.6070 (3L).

If GBP/USD cannot break above strong resistance TG2: 1.6000, then it might come back down to 1.5750.

For my trade setup, I prefer to enter long at 1.5850 region, SL 1.5820 (30 pips, 5 pips below yesterday low), TG 1.5980 (130 pips).

Related Weekly Forecast

Monday, March 19, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I am hungry and I have been eating nonstop since 11pm… it is 2am now.

I am still data crunching, and I am still watching the monitors, hitting the keyboards.

Why forex? Why DJIA?
Why would I have such wide interest?

Dancing, Listening (ya, I turn on music very loud in the car), and I like to blow my room with loud music 

I fall in love with Audi this weekend, I parked beside a black car, went to the bank to deposit my cheque, came out and saw this amazing automobile… it is Audi A4 - do you know how does an Audi A4 look like?

And in the afternoon when I am walking up to the fitness center, I saw Audi R8 passing by… out of so many cars at this posh area, I spotted it, and I start to feel interested on what a German car, what an European car can offer, yes, I am curious.

After gym, after sauna, after shower, I go home and researched…

This is what I got…!!!

Story aside... Back to track, what do we expect next week?

DJIA and NASDAQ 100 Update for Mon 19 Mar 2012

DJIA has the biggest weekly gain since 2012, weekly candle has again pierced high and made new high of 13,288 pts last Friday.

Friday market is basically led by economic data releases.

From the technical chart, DJIA has come back to the upward channel, and we may foresee the market to go up higher towards 13,350 pts.
Current support 13150-170.
Target to enter long when the indices come down 30 pts from opening.


Similar to Dow, we observed market surged to higher and higher high everyweek.
Next week expect market to rise up, next TG 2742-45.

Current support 2712.
Strong support 2700.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

This week forecast starts from GBP/USD.
Irresistible… looking at my favorite market… :-P

Blue horizontal lines represent support levels, Red horizontal lines represent resistance.

Basically the chart marking with (1), (2) --- (5) is my forecast of movement for next week.

The cable surge on last Friday, and I would love to see the surge to continue to hit TG: 1.5925.
Next resistance level 1.5995 (Feb’12 top).

I expect market to pull back a little bit on Monday, support (1) 1.5810, and continue heading to TG 1.5925 level.
After which, I forecast GBP/USD face a little rejection, come down to (3) 1.5780 / 1.5810 – which will be the EMA50 level by that time, found support, and challenge the top again (4).

Next week packed with 8 releases - Here is an important event to watch, if the economic data leave a positive effect on GBP/USD then it shall break above the strong resistance 1.5995 – 1.6000 and go towards 1.6070.
Otherwise, GBP/USD shall come back down to 1.5750 (5).

Economic Data Explained: ForexCrunch

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Blue Nails :)

10 days after my nails is done, still pretty!
Grow a little bit, that's why u see blank 'spot' near my cuticles.
I still do the laundry, I wish the dishes, and they just STAY :)

They are pretty and I thank Jenices for this great work!

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

YM on Tue 13-Mar-2012

Shorting YM / US30 on FXCM.

Market has come up to resistance and currently testing it.
I have initiated a short, SL 30 pts, TG 100 pts.

I have been having opposite view on DJIA and GBP/USD.

Since I am bearish on GBP/USD, I have been thinking whether I need to sit back and other than hunting for long, I should also observe for shorting opportunity.
This afternoon after I turn on the chart, I think I can see it coming.

However, the bullish sentiment in DJIA still strong and I expect market to find support at the red line near 12965 region, then it will move sideways either to test the top again, and go down to the strong support and break the upward momentum.

If market drops below 12900 or ultimately 12880, I will abandon long but consider to change my view.

Monday, March 12, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and NASDAQ 100 Update for Mon 12 Mar 2012

Early of last week market plunged heavily for 200 pts., tested below 12750 pts. support level and rebounded to stay above 12900 until the closing for the week.

Next we expect DJIA to trade sideways between 12830-13030.
Personally I am favoring to the top, I favor to trade long when market comes back to 12830, if market break below 12830, abandon long and we expect the plunge to go down to 12630.

Nasdaq 100 is trading at previous top 2649; it managed to break above previous top 2649 and reached 2652 on Friday.

Nasdaq 100 is prone to more bullish sentiments - next target 2690.
Current support 2640, strong support 2613.63.

Aggressive trader can aim to long at current support, SL 10 pts., and target exit 2670-2690.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

GBP/USD on Tue 6-Mar-2012

Market fallen, it touches our identified support 1.5790 like mentor JC commented, reboudned and approach 1.5900 nor resistance but only close to it.

Highest reaches 1.5886 and market fall for more than 100 pips.

I found a butterfly pattern on 1 hour chart, but it continues to dive south.

Trapezium formed and confirmed with GBP/USD trading below BKO 1.5884 convincingly.

Hunt short, short short short, aggressive short!

If u missed the short like I did, hunt to hunt tomorrow morning at initial shadow 25 pips from opening.

Monday, March 5, 2012

GBP/USD on Mon 5-Mar-2012

For those who follow…
We call for GBP/USD fall 300 pips but our short is 2 days early, market went up to 1.5995, the level which I would have given up to short. So my SL triggered, stopped out, market fall for more than 120 pips last Friday.

I reckon market to rebound from 1.5800 region, stochastic level in 1 Hour chart is quite low and a butterfly pattern is forming now.

So for now market might continue trading down to test support 1.5790-1.5800, rebound to resistance 1.5900.
I forecast market to trade sideways coming 2 days between 1.5790 – 1.5900. Bias downward pressure when market comes back to 1.5900.

Aggressive trader can hunt for short in the afternoon / tomorrow if market resisted at 1.5900 region.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and NASDAQ 100 Update for Mon 5 Mar 2012

Last week on the economic data front, US Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Prelim GDP were giving encouraging figures, this week we are expecting:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday
(The US service sector forecast to reduce to 56.2, from a steady expansion in January 2012 at 56.8),

US ADP NFP on Wednesday,
US NFP on Friday
(After January 2012 posted a remarkable 243k job addition – a blowout number marking highest
Job creation in 3 years, consensus further growth – increase 208k job addition for February 2012).

Technical Forecast

Last Week: DJIA has formed Higher high, lower low – market is going to continue trading sideways
either testing higher high, or lower low again. In line with the expectation of few economic data release
– small decline in ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and weaker US job creation compare to last month’s figure).

As long as DJIA maintain above 12910 levels,
Resistance: 13065
If market manages to breakout to the top, next target is 13150;
Otherwise, breaking below 12910 will attract more sell to next support 12760.

11th week of positive gains for Nasdaq 100.
Even a divergence in 30 minutes chart can only drag NASDAQ100 down by 13-15 pts.
Average day range is 25 pts.

Only gung-ho traders able to withstand a trade like this. If I were to trade aggressively for this market, for Daily Trading:
I will patiently queue to enter at 7 pts. from the opening, SL another 7 pts. away and target to exit with 20 pts. gain / EOD.

I am expecting market to run down on Monday with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Prefer to stay out on Monday but pick long at support.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Busy weekend, again

Addicted to certain kind of sadness...

It is a busy weekend (again).
Classes from 8am, competition until 12:30am, I am wearing heavy makeup, and the journey home is quite a distance... it took me 1 hour to get home.

It has been a while I don't get to drive after 1am, radio keeps playing love songs to sink my heart, I have no expectations, but I have memories.
I am tired, I do.

Got home late, sort out dance costume, cosmetics, put everything back to place, removing makeup... it is a quiet night, and I got myself a Tiger, and a can of Asahi.
It is a fruitful night.
I win 6th placing, intermediate category - belly dance.

Time is never enough, and I have done so many things. There are simply more things to be completed.

I need some time off for myself, my soul, and my legs.

Dancer's feet:



Thursday, March 1, 2012

Here is a video that explains the basics of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Here is a video that explains the basics of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme.

Received a newsletter from dunno where and dunno how they get my email address...
but this video is something new to me, so I thought of posting it here to share.