Last week on the economic data front, US Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Prelim GDP were giving encouraging figures, this week we are expecting:
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday
(The US service sector forecast to reduce to 56.2, from a steady expansion in January 2012 at 56.8),
US ADP NFP on Wednesday,
US NFP on Friday
(After January 2012 posted a remarkable 243k job addition – a blowout number marking highest
Job creation in 3 years, consensus further growth – increase 208k job addition for February 2012).
Technical Forecast
DJIA
Last Week: DJIA has formed Higher high, lower low – market is going to continue trading sideways
either testing higher high, or lower low again. In line with the expectation of few economic data release
– small decline in ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and weaker US job creation compare to last month’s figure).
As long as DJIA maintain above 12910 levels,
Resistance: 13065
If market manages to breakout to the top, next target is 13150;
Otherwise, breaking below 12910 will attract more sell to next support 12760.
NASDAQ 100
11th week of positive gains for Nasdaq 100.
Even a divergence in 30 minutes chart can only drag NASDAQ100 down by 13-15 pts.
Average day range is 25 pts.
Only gung-ho traders able to withstand a trade like this. If I were to trade aggressively for this market, for Daily Trading:
I will patiently queue to enter at 7 pts. from the opening, SL another 7 pts. away and target to exit with 20 pts. gain / EOD.
Summary
I am expecting market to run down on Monday with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Prefer to stay out on Monday but pick long at support.
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