Tuesday, February 28, 2012

GBP/USD on Tue 28 Feb 2012

GBP/USD didn't cross above 1.5900 and trading in a bearish mode.

Yesterday attempt to Long but I have been stopped out.  Check yesterday posting here.

a Trapezium has formed and if Trapezium works, it will be two weeks of south ride, however, our trading experience tells us the we are constantly challenged with our belief, up? or down?

GBP/USD has traded down to 1/3 retracement, 1.5810 is a good support level, and it is possible that GBP/USD will attempt to test 1.5900 again.
As long as GBP/USD didn't break above 1.5930-1.5950, I am still hunting for short hoping for the Trapezium pattern to work for us.

Intraday (1H) chart showing strength and I reckon market to turn up for the time being,  I queue to short at 1.5870, SL 1.5900, TG 1.5750.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Weekly Forecast (FX)


Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish, strong resistance at 1.5930.

If GBP/USD manages to cross above 1.5950, then it will go towards 1.6130-150.
Failure to break above this strong resistance, would be the confirmation of Trapezium and estimate a fall of 300 pips.

Strong Support 1.5780.

Today’s forecast:
intraday chart is not showing fatigue or divergence hence I forecast market to continue going higher and may go up to 1.6130-150 wave target price.
Anyhow, I don’t really feel like placing the order now.

Aggressive daily entry:
Long at initial shadow near 1.5850, SL 1.5820, TG 1.5930 (strong resistance).


Good to read: http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-outlook-feb-27-mar-2-2012/

Sunday, February 26, 2012

DJIA & NASDAQ 100 Update for Mon 27 Feb 2012

Last week in focus was the Greece bailout, and generally market is positive with Euro-Zone debt issue for the time being, and we expect the bullish sentiment to continue for another week.

Week ahead, we have Pending Home Sales m/m on Tuesday 12am, Core Durable Goods orders, CB Consumer Confidence, Prelim GDP, and Friday is ISM Manufacturing PMI consensus 54.6 (previous 54.1) to rise to highest in 8 months.


Weekly candle suggest bullishness towards 13050 and 13150.

Daily candle show bullishness but momentum has slowed down with diminished day range.

4H chart show bullishness with higher high, higher low; intraday chart suggest market to turn down from current high to support 12880, if market manage to sustain above 12850 then we will see it reaches 13050 soon. Any positive news in the market may stimulate the bull higher to next resistance 13150.

Trade action: Early of the week, aggressive short at 20 pts. from opening
(if market open at close 12982, mean we short at 13002),
SL 13020 (slightly above last week’s high),
TG 90 – 100 pts. (estimate 12880-900).

Mid-week hunt for Long if market manages to sustain above 12850.


Last week on YM: market open gap up an traded down to touch support region 12890 pts, it rebound and close at 12959.

Similar trade action: early of the week - Hunt for short at 13000 region, SL 13030, TG 100 – 120 pts.


Market is bullish and it will continue to challenge higher high towards 2665 pts.
Last done 2604, Current support 2590, strong support 2575-2580.

Friday, February 24, 2012

GBP/USD on Fri 24 Feb 2012

After 3 days of falling, GBP/USD formed a white candle last night after it is trading back to current support 1.5650 region.

Daily Candle suggests further up side to test 1.5800-820 which is only 50-60 pips away.
While 1.5650 is still holding up GBP/USD strong.

Intraday chart giving mixed signals, 30 minutes chart showing overbought - signal downward pressure, but I am not convinced because the price action haven't show fatique... from 4 Hour chart, GBP/USD is moving up from support and going to leap over to bullish band.. so if GBP/USD move above 1.5800 then it might continue to march higher to 1.5850.

For early session, I favour long :)
Aggressive Entry to Long at 1.5700-710, SL 1.5680 (or 30 pips from entry), TG 1.5800.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

YM on Thu 23 Feb 2012

It is still trading sideway (consolidation) YM has finally its support near 12900 (lowest 12890) and going up to 13000 resistance.

Quote my weekly forecast (posted on Mon 20 Feb 2012):


Similar to Dow, market currently trading at resistance 12930, reckon the rally to continue towards 13100 after market has tested support 12830 pts.

Current support lies at 12830-860, initiate Long if support market bounces off 12830-860. However, breaking below 12830 would bring YM down to 2nd support 12700 pts.

Staying out, and still waiting...


Wednesday, February 22, 2012

EUR/USD on Wed 22 Feb 2012

Feel that its time to short, plan to short at initial shadow 1.3260 SL 1.3300 TG 1.3140 (ATR or close at EOD).

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

EUR/USD on Tue 21 Feb 2012

Market has been bullish with Greek bailout and within 1 hour it hike 60 pips or more and hit resistance 1.3250 and almost challenge above 1.3300.

Stochastic level still not too high so I'm not convinced to take a short trade.

Will observe market cuz it tends to move in sideways now.

Checked USD Index and it is almost ready for reversal up thus might be a turn down for Euro if there is no news to stimulate EUR/USD.

Still will observe when market trading at 1.3250-280-or max 1.3300 for shorting opportunity.
But no rush.

Will update if there's a market order.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Sunday, February 19, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

US market is closed on 20th Feb 2012 - observance of US Presidents day.
On the economic data front, US Retail sales rise in January, unemployment claims unexpectedly dropped to 348k (lowest in four years).


Technical Forecast
DJIA break above major resistance 12880 and trading towards 13000, last done 12949.90 pts.

Weekly chart:
bullish, weekly candle suggests market to leap higher towards 13060 pts., breaking above this level will lead to TG2 13150 pts.
Daily chart: bullish
Intraday chart: market resisted at 12960 pts., it has a tendency to fall back to BKO 12900 or major support 12800 before going higher. Check divergence in 30Mins.

Since Monday is a bank holiday, we reckon market to trade sideways between 12900 - 13000, initiate market order near support 12900 or resistance 13000 is preferable than to trade in between.


Similar to Dow, market currently trading at resistance 12930, reckon the rally to continue towards 13100 after market has tested support 12830 pts.

Current support lies at 12830-860, initiate Long if support market bounces off 12830-860. However, breaking below 12830 would bring YM down to 2nd support 12700 pts.


Market resisted at 2600 pts. and currently trading near 2585 pts., market is bullish, might test 2600 resistance again and if market break above this resistance then next target is 2660 pts.
Support 2573-2577 pts. Enter long if market is trading at this level during mid-week.


Weekly and daily chart indicate that market is bullish, support 2560, suggest to enter Short 2590-2595 while we wait for short term correction back to 2560.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

What we have observed in a smaller time frame (1 hour), could it happen in the bigger time frame?
Check orange vs green lines on chart.

Early of the week: Consolidate bias up to test 1.3200-250.

Mid-week, if market continues to trade below resistance 1.3250, it would have formed the right shoulder for Head & Shoulder pattern, and we just need to wait for the catalyst drive south towards first target 1.2900.

Monday, aggressive Long around 1.3100, SL 1.3060, TG 1.3220 (Day Range / EOD).
Mid-week hunt for short at 1.3250 resistance.

Monday, February 13, 2012

My Retail Therapy

Happy Valentines Day if you are celebrating! :)

Yes, I have a new membership :) Free Services and something else.

Happy Valentines day :)
I am gonna celebrate it with a sizzling hot bellydance master tonight! She is petite, but she looks tall and mesmerize me on the stage, this would be the first time I get to see her in real person! ^__^

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


Follow my blog updates last Friday, market has fallen back to main support 12750.
This is a desirable level to enter long for the rally to continue up. I didn’t take the long trade due to weekends and hopefully can get a good long level.

Let’s take a look at the technical chart:

Weekly: candlestick pattern, neutral - bearish bias.
Daily: market is trading uptrend; last candlestick pattern suggests a bearish outlook.
4 hour: market has retraced 1/3 after touching high 12930 region.
Strong support 12730.

DJIA: market is well supported at 12743 pts; reckon market to trade sideways around this region testing 12680-12730 pts.
1 hour: stochastic level is low and hopefully the market forms a butterfly pattern while consolidate at this level.

Although the weekly and daily candlestick pattern suggested the market is bearish bias, I am still positive that DJIA could bounce off strong support 12730, may be will attempt lower low before uptrend resume.
In case DJIA didn’t fall below 12680 I am still holding the bullish view.

Minor resistance 12850
Strong resistance 12930 – 950.

Aggressive long at 12730 pts, SL 12680, TG 12930 pts.
Not hunting for short on Monday, unless market breaks below 12680.


Strong support 12680-700, target exit 12930 similar to Dow.
Resistance 12870-890 pts.

This morning market gap up 60 pts, open at 12827 pts but immediately traded down to 12800 regions.

Aggressive long at 12760 SL 12720 TG 12930.
Breaking above 13000 YM shall go to next target 13130, no looking back.


Super bull super bull
Next target 2590 – 2595 pts.

Like what I mentioned last Friday in my blog, if Nasdaq 100 trade below 2545 then it might have a short term correction back to 2515-20 pts strong support.

Monday preference is to hunt for short if market is resisted at previous high 2550 pts.


Aggressive trade: to short at 2558 – 2560. SL 2565 previous high, target exit 2530 pts.
However, similar to YM, hunt for long when market trade back to support @ 2515-20, SL 7 pts, TG 2560-2565, TG 2 2595.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

CFD no more, LCP

As you see, I have been trading on FXCM and today I log into IG markets and realised that CFD for commodities is no longer available here.

They introduced new product = LCP

Leveraged Commodity Product” or “LCP” means an OTC commodity contract on a margin basis (other than a commodity futures contract) whereby a person undertakes, as determined by the terms and conditions of the contract, to pay an amount of money determined or to be determined by reference to the change in value of a commodity over a specified period of time;

The new contract size is now:
1. Standard Contract = 100 troy oz / margin requirement USD1700
2. SGD denominated contract = SGD$10 (SGD1 x min 10 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$170 (SGD17 x min 10 contracts)

1. Standard Contract = 5000 troy oz / margin requirement USD3000
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$300 (SGD60 x min 5 contracts)

Light Crude Oil (US)
1. Standard Contract = USD 10 per full point / margin requirement USD1500
2. SGD denominated Contract = SGD$5 (SGD1 x min 5 contracts) / margin requirement SGD$750 (SGD150 x min 5 contracts)

Friday, February 10, 2012


The Euro erased its earlier losses against the British pound. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their key interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and 1.0% respectively. The BoE boosted the size of its asset-purchase program by 50 billion pounds.

As per market expectation, BoE keep interest rate unchanged.  And injected 50 billion pounds into the market.
GBP fall and therefore EUR/GBP rise.


Last done 1.5808.
Next Support 1.5700.
Resistance 1.5890.

Market pattern: sideway between 1.5890 - 1.5730

If GBP/USD fall below 1.5800 and this support turned into resistance, there is a possibility that GBP/USD continue to face downward pressure towards 1.5700-730 and then 1.5600.

Short or Long
Short at 1.5850, SL 1.5890, TG 1.5730. 
Long at 1.5700-730, SL 30 pips, TG 1.5830.

Read: Bank of England Boosts Its Stimulus

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100

Long Position (since Tuesday) 2519 pts closed at 2550 with 31 pts profit.
Strong bull super bull all the way hitting 2L, Nasdaq100 currently trading at 2559.25.

On FXCM Nas100 is trading at 2561/2563.  If the strong bull continue then next target should be 2595, another 30 pts to go.

A little pull back is happening now after Nasdaq100 hit 2565 high last night.
Upward momentum has slowed down a little bit, current support 2545-2548 pts.

If Nasdaq100 trade below 2545 then it might have a short term correction back to 2520 pts.

Bet for upwave to continue?
Aggressive trading can enter long at 2552, SL 2544, TG 2592 or close EOD.
Short term if market fall below current support 2545, abandon long.


Compare to Nasdaq100, DJIA has a weaker bull and the correction has taken place.  Last done 12890 pts.

Observed two star candle on daily chart.
DJIA didn't make it to 2L target and it has reduced upward momentum.

So far the weekly candle is still positive, today, I reckon a short term correction back to 12800-815 level and bounce off the low, and close above 12850.
But, if DJIA closes below 12850 tonight, then the weekly outlook might change from sideway bull to neutral.


Last done 12830 pts.

Resistance 12880 pts.
Similar to Dow, reckon a short term correction down to 12750, bounce off the low, and close above 12780.

YM needs to bounce of this low 12750 and close above 12780 in order to maintain the bullish outlook.

Immediate action: Preference is to short at market, and close at 12780 (don't really feel like shorting because the stochastic is quite low).

Patiently Hunt for long at 12750 region if support holds.

Thank God its Friday

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

GBP/USD on 8-Feb-11 Wed

GBP/USD has been going up nicely, breaking resistance by resistance, and my temptation to short is getting higher...

However, with BoE actions (additional bond purchase) and official bank rates announcement tonight at 9pm... I doubt the market would reverse and correct down.

Still patiently waiting for short term correction,
I am whispering: Divergence, can you please form in 30 minutes chart? ^__^
I m waiting.


Bullish sentiment on EUR/USD might last until 1.3450 but I couldn't find a place to enter long.

Open position on Nasdaq100:
Long @ 2519 since yesterday,
move SL to 2520 (+1 pt),
TG remain at 2550 (+31 pts).

Monday, February 6, 2012


Beginning of a new day, I took some time to browse thru my favorite website – The Daily Motivator by Ralph Marston. Today’s article is good… let’s share a few lines.

You can read the complete version here: http://greatday.com/motivate/120204.html

The vision inside
Achievement flows from the inside out. To experience an exceptional life on the outside, you must nurture exceptionally positive values on the inside.
You cannot be angry, resentful, envious or cynical on the inside and expect to achieve anything of value. No matter where you might attempt to direct it, your negativity hurts you more than anyone else.

The great thing is, you can experience an outstanding life if you will constantly and persistently envision an outstanding life. That positive vision will itself drive your actions to ensure its own fulfillment.


Being a trader, we need to make decisions, long or short, now or later, and often when market is volatile and moving, we need to decide on the dot.

We are not able to guarantee the result or outcome of our trading decision, like what Dr Van Tharp says, we don’t trade the market, we trade our beliefs.

Take full responsibilities of our own action, take the losses when it has reached our stop loss, be it a mental stop loss or pre-set value; when it has reached our profit, adjust it to higher profit target, or just take the profit, and be happy of the money made today.

It will be another day.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and NASDAQ 100 Update for Mon 06 Feb 2012

Last Friday NFP announcement and US jobless rate has uplifted the market, in line with the positive economic data, and market has break above 12750 region and trading above 12850.

We reckon market to slow down during the early of the week to support level to take a breather before going towards the next target 12950-13000.

Current support 12730
Strong Support 12630
Resistance 12930 (Target)

S did a very good short call last Thursday, short at 12850 region and still standing with more than 50 pts. floating profit! ^__^ Yes for big picture we are looking forward to a big fall, but current financial reporting gala might drive market north anytime so make sure you know how much money you want to make, and decide where to exit :)

For early of the week, Hunt for long opportunity when market comes back to 12630 strong supports in line with EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
Stochastic is quite low and therefore do not encourage taking short position now, prefer to hunt for long if market is showing strong reversal at support levels 12730 or 12630.

Market condition: strong bull and next target lies at 2592.08 pts., last done 2528.70 pts.

Market is currently trading at 2518 levels and we reckon a 1/3 retracement back to 2500 (last Thursday high) before hitting target 2546-2550.
Aggressive daily trading: Long at initial shadow 2509 SL 2500, TG 2540 (Day range)