Gold

for the week starting 16-Sep-2013

Gold has fallen below my psychological level and still going lower.
Looking at the weekly chart, I can only see continuation of bearish sentiment, next support $1280 (close to rookie's forecast)

Intraday chart (4H) gold is trading below EMA50, bearish.
Current support (last week low) $1304.

Resistance $1330
Intraday (1H) Gold is trading at oversold area and I hope technically Gold can rebound, I am hoping for rebound - as long as Gold does not trade below $1300, once Gold closed below $1300, $1280 is within reach in a day.

If Gold can sustain above $1304 (last week low) and continue trading higher, next could test resistance $1330 and return to $1355 level.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold

on 16-Sep-2013

Rookie asked me... why he must do GC forecast.
Why why why
and asked me why Fibo numbers are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%..

I said, people give you a bicycle you won't ask: "why 2 wheels?"
Ride.

Rookie said I LCLY (in Hokkien, means arrogant)
Simply because.. I  can't answer the universal rule laaaaaaaaaa

This week rookie trader forecast Gold to sink to $1275 and rebound back to $1315 (weekly opening).
This is a scary range.
total of $40 range in 5 days, Rookie has a gut feel that the fed decision is going to shake the market upside down!

Gold

Gold for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

This week rookie trader is very sleepy and rookie cannot find support and resistance.
But he changed view from bullish to bearish.

I showed him my forecast and I decided to post it here.

I forecast Gold to trade sidway bias down to support $1350.
This is also a level where I will cautiously hunt for long.
Strong support at $1330.

Although short is preferable, I would patiently wait for Gold to return to $1400 for shorting opportunity.

Cheers
Ayumi

Follow Up 6-Sep-2013

I posted an update with my iPhone using Blogspot mobile app but unfortunately it was not being published.

I then discovered blogspot mobile app has an update.  The last time I have missing post was during mobile app update too.

= =

Having been away for 2 weeks without much update, I can see that my forecast didn't go too far from my usual performance.

Forecast Gold to fall during Monday is good, entered Long at 1375, Stop Loss at 1/3 ATR (lowest $1373.74), took profit at 1410 is a safe trade.

Enter Short at $1410 is a bumpy ride, as market reaches to 1416.30 highest (almost hit stop loss price $1417.00) and return to the weekly opening price $1382.20.

Took profit and market continue diving down.
Gold is trading at $1372 region.

Refer to my weekly forecast, if market break below $1375, next strong support should be $1340.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Gold on 2-Sep-2013

We have a little project with a rookie trader, the red arrows is the forecast and the trend line drawn by Rookie.

What happened:

I am a strong believer than Gold will come down on the first day, and rookie says Gold will be bullish.
I think it turns out to be good for both of us.

I am still waiting to short.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold for 2-Sep-2013

I intend to start my weekly forecast on Gold price.

Egypt crisis and Syrian Civil War trigger oil prices, Gold/Silver become the natural hedge tool out of warfare.

Gold price has been rising since early of July from $1238 to current $1394.

After almost 2 months of rising, weekly chart shows the first possible reversal.
Last Wednesday 28-Aug-2013, Gold has posted a reversal candlestick pattern in daily chart.

I forecast the first trading day of September will be another down day, Gold price should be resisted below $1400-10 and seeking a lower entry at $1375.

For early of September, market shall consolidate largely between $1375 - $1440.

If the crisis or civil war heighten, market might shoot up higher to $1480 once Gold breaks overhead resistance $1440.

Technical chart suggest that early of September Gold price might come down a little bit before rising higher.
I intend to short near current resistance $1410, and enter long position around $1375.
I will abandon short view once market break above strong resistance $1440.

Gold on Sun 7-Jul-2013

I don't like this...

Gold has been falling.
And Catching a falling knife, is not fun.

From Weekly Chart, inner wave (blue) has reached 4L wave target.
Bigger downwave (black) target is $1013 - which I don't think this can happen.

I am really HOPING gold can go up.
but I need a convincing reversal candlestick pattern to enter Long.

Gold price is trading below EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200.
STRONG bear.

Stochastic is no where at low.

Monday market is tend to go lower from current price $1222.
Towards $1200 or $1170.

Let's see.

Transaction

Gold trade closed
Tempted to Long Dow. Dropped the idea / abandoned.

Time to bed.

Order ticket:
Revised target price to 1230$ but market range diminished and I do not want to wait. Manual close and finish work for the week.



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Gold on Fri 28-June-2013

Long Gold
Entry: $1215,
Stop Loss: $1205 ($10)
Target Exit:: $1250 ($35)

Gold on Mon 24-Jun-2013

Gold has fallen to 3L and appraoching 4L.

Strong support at $1260 which is only $20 away.
Stochastic is mid range so there might be room to go down from current price of $1283.

Strong resistance $1340.

I forecast market to trade sideways bias down towards $1260.
Short opportunity $1315
Long opportunity $1279
SL $8
TG $20-24 / close EOD.

Gold and Silver

Gold fall $83.04 since morning (more than 5%)
Silver fall $2.69 since morning (more than 10%)

No sign for retracement.

Gold price sinking

Last week Gold opens around 1580, and closed at 1480.

It has been down by 5% this morning, Gold is under pressure, trading lower and just broke below $1400.

We foresee Gold price to continue falling sharply lower.
I has just break below a very strong support line and we reckon Gold to plunge towards 1350, then to 1320..

 

Transaction

Long (buy) Gold at 1696.05

Updates on Thu 15 Nov 2012

Like Christmas is Coming~ :)
I am going to get the song "Spring" choreographed!
These songs were from Karim Nagi latest album "Arabized", very cool crossovers.

FOMC
Minutes
Bloomberg Video

DJIA

Market shed 90 pts after FOMC meeting minutes

My long trade on Nasdaq100 has triggered SL immediately at the following hour.

Market break below previous low without much upward retracement, not even 1/3;
Forecast market to continue extension to 3L at 12,400 pts

Check DJIA daily chart:
Strong support at 12450 pts, so if we get an opportunity to short, I may exit around 12400 - 450 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Last trading at 2530, not much room to reach target, target 2523, previous support 2522.

Gold

Weekly Chart
With the bullish candlestick pattern last week, I reckon market to head up, although I am not that convinced as Gold didn't reach 50% retracement level to $1661.

Daily Chart
Gold has posted a handsome reversal when it touches EMA200, as u know I am not convinced, but if market were to continue bullish sentiments, i take 1:1 target price near $1784.

Intraday Chart
Same support were seen in 4H chart, there are a few inner wave plotted.

Gold last traded at $1725, reckon market to trade within this symmetrical triangle, breaking up or down.
breaking down to $1705, breaking up to complete 1:1 and reach $1784.

Gold on Week Starting 5-Nov-2012

Gold

Market has came down and testing EMA200 on Daily chart, looking at last Friday’s candle, today might be a doji candle signaling short term rebound.

Reckon market to form a doji candlestick pattern on weekly chart, and a white candle next week around $1730-1734.

This week on Gold I will be hunting Long, near $1660 levels.

Resistance : 1700, 1709 (EMA 50) if cannot break above then downward pressure shall resume, to $1618-1620 maybe?

Resistance: 1734 if market break above 1710 convincingly.

Weekly Forecast (FX) + Gold

GBP/USD

Daily range : 80 pips

Current: 1.6090

Daily chart: Trading in a downward channel, ding dong up and down towards 1.5850 (EMA200) in 2 weeks time.
Intraday chart: bearish, reckon to return to equilibrium :: shall slide from current 1.6090 to 1.6045, hopefully can reach 1.6020 before posing higher.

Stay out.

USD/JPY

Daily Range: 45 pips

The central bank is expected to cut its growth and price projections at the October 30 policy meeting.
Market is led by fundamental developments - weak external demand, strong yen… how would the next stimulus package help with USD/JPY?  Stay close to news and I prefer to stay out.


EUR/USD

Daily Range: 70 pips

Weekly chart: Sideways, contracting trading range, awaiting breakout.
Daily chart: current support risen up to 1.2890, resistance 1.2990.  Strong support 1.2800, Strong Resistance 1.3090.
Intraday (4H) Chart: market shall continue trading in this flag pattern until Thursday / Friday.

Neutral.  No trade.

XAU/USD

Daily Range: $16
Weekly Chart: Bearish, although with a star candlestick pattern, we need a confirmation if market is going to reverse up and resume up trend.

Personal bias:
We at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon market to continue trending down from current price $1712 towards $1660, that is -$50.

Daily Chart:
Gold has posted a strong gain last Friday, from low $1700 to $1718 – and this bullish sentiment shall take a breather, retrace to $1709, and challenge $1720 again on Monday.

Trading Plan:
I will hunt for short instead of Long at support…
However, for aggressive trading : I would place a Long trade on Monday near $1709, close EOD or near resistance.
Main objective for the week would be hunting short near resistance $1715-20, target exit 1700.

chart explains far better than words:

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

XAU/USD

Short  $1714.63
SL     $1720
TG1   $1702
TG2   $1693

Gold on Wed 17-Oct-2012

Last few cycle spent 7 candles to rebound and cross $4-$5 above EMA50, and fall.

this round it took 10 candles, and how long would it takes to finally decide to break above EMA50 before coming down again?

Or it would never happen?

I will wait another 4 candles (4 x 4 hours = 16 hours) for retracement, unless market shows a strong reversal pattern in 30 mins or 60 mins chart.

Still, patience.

Transaction

Gold on 27 Sep 2012

4H chart
Green line is EMA50 which is the guide line i normally use to identify support/ resistance.




Last done $1756 and it seems market shifted from bullish to correction phase.

This green line which hover around $1760 has turned from support to resistance.



Above is gold 1H chart and u might identify the similar pattern - market is capped below 1760.

I hv entered a short at market ($1756). Looking forward to the south train below 1740.

Gold on Tue 25 Sep 2012

It was wierd, I entered at market to long Gold at $1757.73 (market order, instant execution) and I also created a pending order to long at $1755, but market didn't come down, and started to trade upwards.

Market was choppy for the past 2 weeks, but yesterday it was a smooth one...
Current support is $1755 since market has resumed upward testing this low for 3rd time in a week.

I am looking forward to Gold breaking the top resistance 1786 and trade towards March high $1790 and then August 2011 high $1800.

But, if a retracement were to happen, it could bring Gold down to $1715, then  $1690.
I don't wish to see Gold testing strong support $1675 but this would be the last defence for uptrend.

In summary:
TG2: 1800
TG1: 1790
Daily Target: 1786
Current Support 1755
S1: 1715
S2: 1690
S3: 1675