Sunday, December 4, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

It is a volatile week...

And my view also changed with the week's market action.

Initially it was:


Market fulfilled 1/3 retracement, with the resistance on EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, and divergence in hourly chart, market turn down.
From 1.3440 down to 1.3250.
The trade was successful.

However, market rebounded from this low, and sharply risen above previous resistance, and fulfilled FR50 in a smaller time frame.

Let’s see what happened... and lets take the bearish view bullish... market just found a reliable support and turned up...


And these price action, result in a change of my short term view.

Then my view becomes:


This is a daily chart, and let’s takes the peak in end Oct-2011 as the start of the Fibo retracement, therefore the start of retracement begins from the low formed 2 weeks ago.

Market has found a solid support at 1.3210. Then 1.3260.

Reckon market to continue this retracement, up up up to FR50, which coincide with PowerWave initial wave target price 1.3720.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is easier to read... XD

Nice retracement. 1/3, resisted, and then breakout, retrace to 1/2, and now the price action is mixed, bearish bias.

Let's take a look at daily chart.

GBP/USD has retrace 50% from the double top and travel between the EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
From daily chart outlook, it is bearish bias especially after Friday's sharp fall @ midnight.

I was not feeling well last Friday, after taking the cold medicine, I was half asleep - but still shorted the market - I think aggressive trading/ gambling is still my nature =).

Monday reckon market to continue the quiet price action and slowly move up to 1.5630-640 before it extends another leg down to 1.5530 to test support and return to 2nd support 1.5450.

My trading plan for GBP/USD is to short at the same 1.5630-640 region, SL 1.5680, TG 1.5450 / EOD.

Still Sneezing,
Ayumi

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Thanks to Sam Trader!

I luv it soooooooo much!!!


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Friday, December 2, 2011

FXCM

I have been searching for broker with MT4, great mobile app...
Since I have been using Trade Interceptor, I am trying out FXCM... this post is not promoting any broker, but just a snapshot of how does FXCM looks.

This is the screen shot from their desktop application.

Default Charting, maximize GBP/USD:

Dealing Rates - Advanced:

Dealing Rates - Simple:

I still prefer the "simple dealing rates".. may be because I'm used to it.

Some terminology on my Portfolio (Open Positions) is new...
The GBP/USD short position is opened last night...
what is "Roll"? -0.20?

Overall the color of the trading station is fine.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Gold on 29-11-2011 Tue

Weekly outlook: Neutral

Forecast market to test resistance 1728-1730 today before coming down to lower band 1666-1670.

Might spot for shorting opportunity tomorrow near the said resistance 1728 - 1730.

Monday, November 28, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I have tried multiple ways to access the charts and finally it does… I think MT5 have been updating its client base and therefore my account is sort of deactivated after a period of time.
MT4 is working fine…

DJIA

Quick look at what had happened last week:
Last week DJIA open at 11647.66, gap down, and no pull up, last Friday 25-Nov-2011, DJIA closed at 11,231.78. It was a short trading week, but the falling range is big DJIA shed 415.88 points in a week.

From the technical chart, if we plot Fibonacci Retracement Level from Oct-2011 Low 10404 to recent high 12285, we realized that DJIA has come to a major Fibonacci Retracement Level, which suggest a halt of bearish momentum.

With the worsen Euro zone debt crisis, this support level might just hold for few trading days before DJIA attempt to break lower to 11000 or 10800 level.

Daily Chart: With two small star candles, there is a potential technical rebound to 11500-11550.
For YM on Broco chart, technical rebound to 11450-11500.

4 hour chart: similarly, hunt for Short opportunity at EMA50 which is at the same level 11500 region.

Therefore for short term trading on Monday, I favor Long at 11190 SL 11140 TG 11390.
For YM on Broco chart, Long at 11290 SL 11240 TG 11490.

Hunt for another short opportunity after the technical rebound complete, target the next phase of fall will reach 11000 to 10800 points.

NASDAQ 100

Witness the falling knife in NASDAQ 100, Nasdaq100 opened with a wide gap down of 30 points and shed 69 points from the week’s opening. If we were sitting in opposite direction, definitely the gap hurts!

Coming up this week, with Nasdaq100 traded below EMA200 on daily chart, market is bearish.

4 hour chart: upon touching 2150, market has fulfilled PowerWave wave target price. Technically NASDAQ100 will rebound to 2280, however, with the worsen fundamentals in Euro zone which trigger selling pressure; we reckon the immediate resistance at 2230.

In short, for beginning of this week, we reckon technical rebound up to 2230, and hunt for next shorting opportunity at 2230 or 2280 level. Target exit for short is 2050.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Good morning traders! Sorry my forecast is late for the week...

I had a wonderful weekend at KL Performing Arts Center with a Hungarian teacher, she is amazing and she shared her life experience; She love Malaysia - it is an amazing country, she traveled so many places but never seen a beautiful country like here, with more than 4 religion in the same land, and we can still see the same street with Mosque, Hindu Temple, Buddhist temple, Church...

She shared her life during world war and how the country has been teared off and how Hungarian being pressured... and due to that Hungarian is sensitive, artistic... :) So I am thankful for this wonderful land we are living, and please treasure every moment, and live our life to the fullest!

GBP/USD

While I have started the chart, market has gap up and bullish candle has formed.
I do not know it is a technical rebound but I think this bullish sentiment is going to be short lived.

After falling for past two weeks, without breaking below 1.5400, market is going to consolidate between 1.5400 support and resistance 1.5750-800.

I reckon market to move slowly up to 1.5650 early of this week until mid-week (butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart confirms the reversal).


The consolidation might last for a week or two, main resistance 1.5750-800.

However, if market couldn't survive above 1.5400 support, then it is going to fall to our next target 1.5250.


EUR/USD

Weekly chart: 4 black candle on weekly chart, major support 1.3150.

Daily chart: bearish

4 Hour chart: bearish

1 Hour chart: butterfly pattern has formed. Suggest a short term technical rebound.

Resistance 2: 1.3730
Resistance 1.3430
Support 1: 1.3150-1.3200
Support2: 1.3050

Market has been trading below EAM50 on 4 hour chart which means bearish. With the butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart, it suggests a short term technical rebound to immediate resistance 1.3430.

However, after falling for 4 weeks, market may trade in consolidation for 2 weeks before the next trend emerge. Be patient and wait for trading opportunity at main support / resistance.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Every week when I look at the chart, I would ask myself, is my view still valid?
Will I see it differently this time?

And when I just about to start the forecast for the week, I start to doubt myself:
Why would I call for waterfall?

For those who followed my post, I think you may want to throw a stone. ^_< hahaha although last week market tumbled and we make some money, it doesn’t mean that we will be right all the time. I keep questioning myself again and again until I finally “decide” what I want to do next, I accept my forecast for the week, and whether market *really* move in favor, or opposite, It is not in my control. We always need to *decide*, and if we are right, we *catch*, and we *ride*. We always need to *plan*. A famous US cabaret style belly dancer – Sandra, she teach me to “decide”, and “plan” your next move. I remember mentor JC told me the same, “Fail to Plan = Plan to fail”. So, back to the week’s forecast, I may be right, I may be wrong. Let’s see! DJIA

Economic Data mixed, US economy starts to stabilize, with lower unemployment claims, housing start drops, producer price decline, and retail sale climbed showing mild demand… read our Weekly Report by Sifu.

It is not easy to forecast the market direction based on fundamental news… there are simply too many news and I don’t know which one to follow, I think many traders confused also. XD
So I stick to technical forecast and our PowerWave.

Daily chart: Consolidation. DJIA traded very close to its 200 days EMA.
4 Hour chart: market has traded below EMA50 which means the bullish sentiment has shifted to a lower gear.

For the past 3 weeks, DJIA was trading in a narrowing channel (symmetrical triangle), with DJIA traded below 11900, it signals the bottom support line has been compromised and it has temporary became its resistance. Check 4 Hour Chart.


We expect market to be quiet for the beginning of 21-Nov-11 week.
Resistance: 11900.
Support: 11680.

We favor to short at the resistance 11900, SL around 11960, Target at support 11680.
For YM on Broco Cont chart (last traded 11767): Short 11930, SL 12000, TG 11650.


NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 has fallen below the group support level 2280 and we expect the bearish sentiment to continue on Monday, next strong support for Nasdaq 100 is 2220 which is approximately 30 points away.

Daily Trading to Short at 15 pts. away from opening, Stop Loss 15 pts. away, Target 2225-2220 (to fill the gap in October-2011).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
Weekly candle: bearish
Daily candle: potential reversal on Thursday and Friday, but selling pressure hit hard when EUR/USD tries to break above 1.3600, highest 1.3613. Close at 1.3514.


4 Hour chart: bearish


Daily entry: Short with initial shadow.

Trading Plan:
Short 1.3550, SL 1.3600 (50 pips),
TG: 1.3370 (180 pips).

GBP/USD

I was bullish on GBP/USD since two weeks ago and my monthly outlook was to wait for GBP/USD to breakout to the top and hit 1.6350.

However, market consolidated for 2 weeks (week 31/10, and week 7/11), resisted at 1.6160 and supported at 1.5860.


Finally last week, GBP/USD broke below major support 1.5860 and last traded at 1.5794.

It is not as per what I have expected the market to be... and so... I choose to trade the opposite direction === to sell GBP/USD the following week :)

The support we identified 1.5860 has turned to resistance and market should find current support at 1.5700.
Breaking below this current support 1.5700, GBP/USD will fall to 1.5560.

Daily Trading:
Short 1.5830, SL 1.5870 (slightly above the identified resistance),
TG1: 1.5700.
TG2: 1.5560.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Quick Update on YM

Like what we have forecasted on DJIA.
This is a very very profitable trading week.

We short YM at 12165, and SL 12235 (yes, a bigger SL fo 70 pts), but market also fulfilled the whole range of 465 pts TG 11700 last night!

Clap clap!! It is a turnaround to most of the trading account, isn't it? although my next target is 12600, this trade has doubled the account (scary for those who were on the opposite side of trade but didn't put a stop loss).

So, the trade was closed, happily taken the money and today will go out with my nephew and sister-in-law. Family day.

Monday, November 14, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good day fellow traders

DJIA

2 weeks ago, DJIA hit 12284 pts. resistance, market tumbled more than 300 pts. to 11630 and currently consolidate in big range, last traded at 12153.70.

Remember the magic number 80? For PowerWave Trades, plot your Fibo Retracement and check the magic on your own.
80 in weekly chart, works.
80 in daily chart, works.

So we will use the same concept in 4 hour chart to hunt for trading opportunities.
Identify Resistance: 12190 (adjusted 40pts higher from last week forecast)
Support: 11730
Major Support: 11650 (Sarah support the same view)

Quote from last week:
P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.
So let's say if 12288 couldn't stop the bull, we might see the market drive up all the way to 12450, so, abandon your shorts if this resistance fails.

Aggressive Short at initial shadow 12180, SL 12250-280, TG 11730, TG2 11650.
For YM on Broco Chart: Short 12165, SL 12235, TG 11700, TG2 11600.

Nasdaq 100

Market trading in big range.
Key Resistance: 2408
Key Support: 2280

Nasdaq 100 closed at 2350 - We expect market to continue the bullish strength towards 2382 on Monday.

Hunt for shorting opportunity when Nasdaq 100 trading near key resistance 2408. Similar to Dow, if market break above 2408, then it might go north to 2435. Abandon short if the resistance fails.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

GBP/USD on 14-Nov-2011 Mon

GBP/USD

Monthly outlook: same, consolidation with bullish bias towards 1.6350.
Weekly Candle: 2nd indecisive candle on weekly chart, market testing important support / resistance level.

Lets look at the same chart... Daily Chart for GBP/USD


Important Resistance level: 1.6160
Important Support level: 1.5860

Last week, GBP/USD attempt to test 1.6160, but resisted at 1.6130 and came down to 1.5866 without touching either the identified support / resistance level.

In fact, I chicken out to buy when market form a bearish candle on Wednesday, it is very close to support level... However, on Thursday market form a doji, and a positive candle on Friday.

So, it is the market doing consolidation, and fulfilled the initial shadow for November month candle.

From monthly outlook, I am bullish, but patiently waiting for breakout to the top, target 1.6350.

Intraday chart (4 Hour)

Definitely a consolidation pattern.
And as per the chart, even after missing the opportunity to long near support 1.5860, we can capture long opportunity at the mid point 1.5990, with a bigger risk tolerance level...

Day Trade:
Aggressive Long at initial shadow (40 pips) 1.6020. SL 1.5970, TG 1.6150 (or EOD).

Position Trade:
Long at 1.5980 SL 1.5900 TG 1.6350.

Related:
GBP/USD on 11-Nov
GBP/USD on 8-Nov

Friday, November 11, 2011

the Days...

Remember the days when I just began trading, yeah we have some amateur investors, trying to become traders.

Back then, when I just started, I remember a friend told me:
"You want to commit suicide, jump down from a 20 floor building is faster, and easier, never attempt trading".
*So trading have a BAD name?*

That friend attended the same business school... yes, he is good in business, properties... but I don't understand why he rejects stocks.  I just started with stocks.
I never attend any courses back then.. just regularly attend seminars, talks, market updates, and read a lot of investopedia, learn from the chart..

Friends who were trading together, they don't trade anymore now.
When I move on to Futures, I have different group of friends, but they were still some investors trading stocks, and I only have 1 very successful futures trader friend.  He also stopped trading futures now.  He is successful, but he don't trade now.  Tax is high in US... :)

I meet some guys at the seminar, and they trade, everyday, every hour when the market is open, I am glad that I know them, at least, I know, there are still plenty of people in the derivatives market, successful trading, is not alone...
That is before I meet Sifu DAR.
I try to trade with them, but there're conditions, I need to pass certain exams... I need to become a licensed broker... need to be cool.
I can never become a broker, I never study enough, and I never have the guts to go back to school and get a degree... *sorry*
So, we can only say Hi, and recommend each other some friends and resources.

So, I continue to blog.  I blog since 2005, started with some Chinese blogging, articles, movies.. life related stuff, then seriously into trading stuff since 2007... (It has been so long).

So keeping a journal works.  You can always go back, and check your mental state, remind yourself that you have traveled so far, so consistently, so strongly, step by step moving forward.

Don't GIVE UP, Keep GOING.

Today I receive a link from a blogger friend.. its a youtube video, about floor trading, the title is "Floored".. Google it if you want to see.  It got me thinking so much...

Electronic trading, is cool.
You can trade whenever you are available, you can trade wherever you like, can be Bali, can be Malaysia, can be China, can be Melbourne.. you can TRADE.

It is cool.
It gives us total freedom, but the price to pay?
Very little, except if you like to trade with a BIG group of people, yelling and shouting together.

It is the same world here, and out there, I used to have some friends, trading... and left.
I wish you come back soon, and lets trade.

Cheers
Ayumi getting moody

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Updates on 11-Nov-2011

EUR/USD


Unable to break above resistance 1.3860, and last night EUR/USD break below support 1.3600. EUR/USD shift to a bearish gear to test next support 1.3500 and strong support 1.3400.

YM


I am 1 day early to short the market... and just missed the 400 points range.
I expect market to consolidate a bit while testing support 11570.

If YM continue to drop below 11570, then shall hit target 11450 soon.
Enter with Fibo range:
Long 11600 SL11550 TG 11850 (or EOD)
Short 12000 SL 12050 TG 11800 (or EOD)

Aggressive trade, Enter with Initial Shadow:
Short 11750 SL 11800 TG 11450.

GBP/USD


For some readers who follow the previous post, I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting above 1.6160, however, with the market being resisted at 1.6130 and close near support, I abandon my long.

Expect market to test support 1.5860 (previous 1/3 retracement).

If we switch the chart upside down, it might also signal the start of the GBP/USD melt...
I take no action to long nor short but wait.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

GBP/USD on 8-Nov-11 Tue

Monthly Chart: consolidation with bullish bias
Weekly Chart: 1st bearish candle after 3 consecutive winnings.
Daily Chart: Bullish - fulfilled 1/3 retracement.

From the bullish outlook on the daily chart, GBP/USD has completed its 1/3 retracement on last Thursday (3/11). If this support level 1.5860 is holding up strongly without being re-test again this week, then we shall observe GBP/USD testing last week high 1.6160, once it break above 1.6160 then set to go to next target 1.6350.



Intraday 4 hour chart:
GBP/USD has found a temporary support at 1.6000 region, has been bouncing off the EMA50 support lines, which means, after the retracement, market consolidate and once breakout (BKO) it is ready to go.



GBP/USD is trading at 1.6050, and I am going to trade aggressively today to enter with initial shadow, coupled with EMA50 short term trading strategy.

Yes, there might be two entries if market show us these realiable pattern.

Position Trade:
Long 1.6007
SL 1.5950 (50 pips)
Target 1.6310 (300 pips)

Today going out to watch Real Steel, I think this movie has been showing for quite some time.

And I couldn't trade from my mobile recently (for IG), I don't know why, may be they blocked access to certain websites.... aiks... I think I have to bring my laptop out with me...
I find this broker quite reliable (till date) and do not want to change any time soon.

Monday, November 7, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hi all, sorry that the update is rather late this week, I were busy for the weekend coaching, attending my friend's dance studio opening, a few gathering and meetings, cutting cakes, pot luck... the weekend is simply --- packed and filled with a lot of blessings.

I hope all have enjoyed a great weekend, and those who are celebrating Hari Raya Haji (Malaysia & Singapore) have fun! Today is the last day of the long holiday, let’s make it count!

Wall Street:
We have NFP announcement last week, job creation is only 80k numbers, and the numbers indicating a rather stagnant job growth, unemployment rate is dropped to six months low (yey!) 9%, previous month 9.1%.

There are many other part of the world actually has higher unemployment... Spain 20.5% (September 2011), Euro Zone 10.2%.
P/s Malaysia: 3.1%. (August 2011)

Related: http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?lang=en
Latest Data here http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=275%3Anational-summary-data-page-real-sector&catid=91%3Ansdp&lang=en

DJIA

For power wave traders, you'll recognize that 80 is a good number for DJIA.
Previous week Dow hit to 12288, and last week in line with MF Global news, market tumbled, shed more than 550 points in two days, and recovered 50% on Wednesday and Thursday.


Friday is a neutral trading day and as usual we stay out of NFP.

What do we expect next?

From a smaller time frame, I am expecting market to recover up to 12150 region (another number 80, hey!)

P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.

This week is a crucial week to watch for reversal, divergence, resistance, etc. etc. to catch the south train... can you smell it? Mid November we expect the rise to HALT, and I am EXCITED!!!


Short Term daily trading, Monday view: Consolidation bias up - Enter with Fibo Range:
Entry for YM (on my Broco MT4 CONT chart):
Long 11750
Short 12130

On IG Wall Street CFD:
Long 11810
Short 12190

And I will park another short at 12150 / 12210 for position trade.

NASDAQ 100
Last week Day 1: Gap down, Day 2: Down, Day 3: Gap up, close gap, Day 4: gap up, Day 5: neutral...

Support: 2330
Monday: consolidation bias up to test resistance 2370. Nasdaq 100 trading at 2360 so the profit range is too small compare to the risk levels... (Risk 30 points: Reward 10 points), let’s say market return to 2nd resistance 2390 the risk is still less than 1:2... So I suggest to stay out of this market and wait for divergence / reversal pattern to form either at R1: 2370, or R2: 2390 by mid/end of this week.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Transaction (FX)

Yesterday position closed.
Last night opened another position after BKO, Short position opened @ 1.5945, earlier preset SL 40 pips but manage to move SL to entry (floating profit 50 pips), target shift to 1.5800 (145 pips).

Last night shorted YM, and very bearish after CNN announcement (forgot what was the news bcz I am half way sleeping), I shifted my SL to entry but market reversed and killed my position.

Market has fulfilled 1/3 retracement after the week's fall and I believe the market will continue consolidate for a while, going to test Tuesday low again near 11550 region.
Resistance at 11800.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Transaction (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.6020, SL 30 pips (1.6050) TG 140 pips (1.5880).



Tuesday, November 1, 2011

MF Global file for bankruptcy on Monday 31-Oct-2011

OCTOBER 31, 2011, 6:57 PMLEGAL/REGULATORY
Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money
BY BEN PROTESS, MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED AND SUSANNE CRAIG
9:55 p.m. | Updated
Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.

Monday, October 31, 2011

You have to give, before you can get

It was a wonderful team effort last weekend and the result is far far better than what I initially expected.
Sifu conducted 3 seminars in total, 2 for the broker house, and 1 seminar to launch GTI.

For those who do not know my Sifu DAR Wong, or my mentor JC, they would think that I am bias... may be I raise them so high up on the pedestal, but Yes, they are, if you don't agree, just check it out, and I believe, time will tell.

My Sifu - a great master with 22 years of trading experience did two seminars for free, travel from Singapore, and to Malaysia - Penang, and now coming to KL... he shouldn't need to travel so far, so rapidly... he do not need to care for the people around here, it is not his obligations...

When it comes to our day to day life... some times we will compare with others, and begin calculating.
Why someone who is so quiet, can get so many support?  May be we will think, he is not that good looking, he don't speak as fluent as a speaker shall speak, or he is not as tall... sort of comparisons..

Yeah, life is not fair.

But look, over time, when we first started, we never have any expectations, and after we are getting better, we start to have higher expectations, not to ourselves, but to others as well.

Yeah, not fair..

Like, Women can keep Long hair, and contrary to that weird if a guy keep long hair go for rebonding / curls..
Gals should have put on makeups...

But this is also what makes us feel depressed, upset, but... relax, and get up and get moving.

Recognize the mental state, it is VALID, it is ok to feel depressed.
It is just normal.  Sunrise, Sunset, Rain and Shine.
Acknowledge it, relax, get up and get moving.

Tonight celebrate mentor's Birthday! Yey!

GBP/USD on 31-Oct-2011

GBP/USD last traded at 1.5973 which has already hit our daily target.
however, look at 4H chart it is going to touch the support line 1.5950.

If GBP/USD continue to piece below 1.5950, but reverse up, I will Long the GBP/USD -- we forecast the week is a sideway market either trading to test low, or test resistance 1.6160.

2pm is the decision making point, and once I hit the Long, I will preset the stop loss at the point where it goes to the lowest point, this would be a short term trade which might only last for 4 hours, before the announcement at 6pm as I printed on the chart above.

The butterfly pattern is emerging in 1 Hour chart which also support the short term long view.

Cheers to all.

DJIA on 31-Oct-2011

The pattern is getting clearer and clearer...
Hope that we can get some Elmo's for Christmas...

Tuesday will be a public event to launch our World GTI.
It will be Sifu's last talk for year 2011, then we will have Loooong holidays, until after CNY.

Shall plan for some gatherings and market update and see how's everyone progress and answers some questions, and chase for the homework associates owe it to themselves =)

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hi handsome and pretty traders, it is Haloween and I hope all have fun, just came to know why is "haloween" from one of our forum writer HP.

Our team went up to Penang last weekend for couple of talks and launched our GTI in Penang, the respond is good and I am glad to see so many quality subscribers from this land, not to mention the heavenly hawker food and char kuey teow, assam laksa... yummy yum

ops, sorry for off topic a little bit, lets look at the market update for Nasdaq 100:

Nasdaq 100 has break above 2400 and it is approaching the strong resistance level 2435, we have seen some weakness on Daily Chart especially on last Friday.

I am expecting a sideway market testing either the support level 2350, or going to the top 2435.

Advise to stay out of this market and observe for strong reversal signal, may be in mid November.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

G20 meeting has finally came out with a mutual agreement in view to "cool down" the Euro-Zone Debt Crisis.

DJIA has risen ahead of the announcement, and last Friday we finally see the bull slow down closed the week at 12231.10.

Weekly Chart: Bullish
Daily Chart: The bull shows fatigue with a reduced day range in line with the concern over Europe Concern.
Intraday: 30 minutes chart is showing a divergence which suggest a temporary retracement.

I am still bullish on Dow, after the retracement, market may resume uptrend and looking at next target 12450 and ultimate 12750 in early November.

From 30 minutes chart, it has hit 2L in line with a stochastic divergence, therefore I forecast market to do a slight retreat back to current support 11950.
In the event market falls below 11800 then I might have a second thought of the continuity of the uptrend.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Quick Update on NQ

although our forecast is right about NQ - reached 2385 high last night, we expect the bullish sentiment to continue.

Although I am agressive and aim to enter at 2308, market didn't retrace but straight up to 2385.

Today I forecast the market to continue to surge higher to hit 2400 - 2430.

Aggressive trade:
Enter Long with initial shadow at 2354 which is also 50% of Fibo Retracement from yesterday's high-low.

DJIA

Bold uptrend.

Daily chart we have seen some very bullish EMA crossings.
There's no sign of reversal yet, stochastic normal.
Daily candle normal.

Strong support at 11480.
(Dow keep making Loooong shadows on weekly chart, beware of any long position)
If the positive news keep pumping in the market, it might go all the way to 12300.

Monday, October 24, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Last week we forecast market to trade in range capped between 11580-11800.
It was a choppy week, Monday Down, Tuesday Up, then Down, Up, and finally Friday make a final boost to 11800.

As spoken last week, DJIA shall face resistance at previous pincer top and 11800 shall be the highest it can go. Clue 1:
Last Friday, DJIA surged to 11800 and close at 11808.80, break above our resistance 11800.
Clue 2:
EMA4 and EMA200 almost crossing.
Therefore,
the chart looks bullish with immediate target poised at 11950.

Support 11650.

Next target is 12100.

Average Trading Range (Weekly Range): 640 pts
Average Trading Range (Daily Range): 205 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Quote my own forecast last week 17-Oct-2011 Mon:
NASDAQ 100 closed the week at 2371.94 still have rooms to "grow".
More optimism on this market and forecast the super bull to go all the way until next resistance at 2395-2400.

To trade for reversal profit, observe 30 minutes chart (like I do) for top down reversal confirmation.

Reckon market to form a double top in line with a stochastic divergence near the resistance level 2395 - 2400.

Instead of going up, Nasdaq 100 traded down to 1/3 retracement level.
I am still bullish on Nasdaq 100.

Sideline:
Watch NQ_CONT chart.
It was trading at 2328.50 and the market is showing a pause for the uptrend.
lets say market retrace, it may drop to 2270 maximum, which we identify this is a strong support, therefore NQ shall not fall below 2270, it is a good level to pick long.

However, if market fall below 2270, stay out.
For aggressive trader like me, aim to enter long at EMA50 (4H), which is 2308.
and aim to exit at 2400.

The BIGGEST Catch for next month is top down reversal as we mentioned the resistance for Nasdaq 100 is 2400, NQ chart is 2430, and therefore, don't forget to observe for reversal in daily and 30 minutes chart, exit at the right time, and never hold your profit until it turns sour.

Till then, Cheers

Monday, October 17, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good morning traders! I was feeling sick last night and sorry for the late update.
Its a new day and lets hunt for some good trading opportunities.

DJIA

DJIA is boosted up last Friday by strong recovery in US retail sales, it closed the week at 11649.

Technically DJIA is trading back to previous strong resistance level (pincer top) 11720 and EMA200 - which is only 70 points away.
Traders and Investors are suspicious of the continuity of the up-trend.

Forecast market to trade in range for the week 11580 - 11800. Suggest to stay out.
If there's open position, observe market reaction near resistance.

Just in case market releases good news and DJIA break above 11800, next target could reach 11950.


NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 closed the week at 2371.94 still have rooms to "grow".
More optimism on this market and forecast the super bull to go all the way until next resistance at 2395-2400.

To trade for reversal profit, observe 30 minutes chart (like I do) for top down reversal confirmation.
Reckon market to form a double top in line with a stochastic divergence near the resistance level 2395 - 2400.

Related:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.NDX

Saturday, October 15, 2011

EUR/USD on 17 Oct 2011 Mon

Monthly Candle: Yet to finish
Suspect next strong resistance to be at 1.4130 region, based on last month (September - Bearish candle) to this month's (October) fibobacci retracement levels.

Weekly Candle, super bullish, proven last week's reversal pattern and EUR/USD managed to crossed above 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level (1.3760) and almost touching my weekly target of 1.3900 region.

Next target is tough but possible.
Early of this week, EUR/USD may face resistance at daily ema200 1.3950 which is also around my profit target range.

Although my forecast was right, my entry is not good, i queue to enter when market made 2L, hoping for a 1/3 retracement, but market didn't.

I queue to enter at retracement, when market hit 3L, but market didn't.

When I chase market and enter on Thursday, market consolidated a bit, before going up, without making 1/3 retracement.

hahahaa... better sharpen my entry.

Trading Plan: to Long

EUR/USD closed at 1.3879, Monday can enter Long with initial shadow around 1.3820 region if market didn't gap up / down.

SL can be slightly below the group support level 1.3780 region.

Target 1.3950.
Next target 1.4080, take note monthly candle resistance 1.4130.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

EUR/USD on 11-Oct-2011 Tue


Up Up

Looking forward to a fibo retracement back to
support 1 : 1.3543, or
Strong Support (Support 2): 1.3464.

Weekly Target to reach
 TG1: 1.3740,
TG2: 1.3910.

Monday, October 10, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Dow rebounded strongly after touching low at 10400 regions, it reaches our weekly bear target in just 2 days!

The strong rebound has bring DJIA back to 11200 as per Sarah forecast, which is also a desired level to short,
In line with a bearish reversal candlestick pattern on daily chart.

We forecast DJIA to trade down back to support 11000 region during early of the week,
While weekly candlestick pattern proved a high resilient at 10400 support,
I suspect Dow to mark another top at 11350 region towards end of the week.

Traders can short at initial shadow during early of the week,
but observe for long opportunity when Dow approaches 11000 support regions.

YM

Closes at 11046.
Short at initial shadow 60 points away from opening (est. 11120).
Observe for Long opportunity when YM approaches 10900 support regions.

NASDAQ 100

Target for the week (Up) 2290 resistance.
Forecast market to face resistance at current level and going down to test support 2170.

Good to short on Monday at initial shadow 2216, SL 2228 (Fri High), TG 2170 or close EOD (End of Day).
Aim for long opportunity during mid-week when Nasdaq 100 trading at 2170 or 2135 as spoken.

Related:
Last Week's Forecast
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/10/djia-and-nasdaq-100.html
APSRI DJIA Forum
http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8

APSRI Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/
For details on ProMaster program that I have attended, click here: http://www.traderpromaster.com/index.html

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog,
click here: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

EUR/USD on 4-Oct-2011 Tue

We observed a triple pincer on daily chart and signifies EUR/USD is strongly resisted at this level (1.3660).


Yesterday is a free fall market, EUR/USD lost 160 pips and formed a bearish candle.

This morning the market is rather quiet, as usual, while we are closer and closer to Euro open, I reckon market to make a pull back, resisted, and continue trading down.
Weekly target is 1.2930.


Would the pull back make EUR/USD return to 1.3335?? I don't know, aggressive trader can enter and short at 1.3230, SL 50 pips, TG 150 pips.

YM on Tue 4-Oct-2011

Congratulations to traders who short YM at 10900.
wonderful slide last night, so blessed and such a beautiful profit range of 300 points!

Again, YM will be supported (temporary) at previous week low.
YM open at 10550, aggressively, today will place another pending order to short at 10620, SL 100 pts, TG 300 pts.

(just realised I have entered a wrong SL figure during yesterday's post... sorri sorri)

Forecast market to test 10600 resistance, if break above 10600, next place to short is 10770.

Selling pressure is high!
Once YM break below 10550 (yesterday low) it will come back to 10450 as per my weekly target.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Rehearsal~ Donut & Cookies

Ayumi is very happy today cuz it is a special day!

My niece b'day today!

And today is last week before weekend's performance.

Today after my solo practice (ya... Dance from 7pm for 3 hours), I receive a yummy yummy reward!

^^



So blessed~



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Its a new month, new day, and we wish everyone pocket the biggest gain in this long waited month!!!!

DJIA

Last week on DJIA, we observed a technical bounce when it touches the low of 10642.
DJIA started off the week with a strong momentum returned to 11050, and in line with the "operation twist" announcement -- DJIA rallied to 4/5 Fibonacci Retracement Level, marked the highest point of the week at 11373 and formed a downward channel.



From technical chart, DJIA will continue to face resistance at 11150 - 11080, and support at 10600.

Once DJIA break below previous week low of 10775, it will return to 10600 and next target 10450.
Otherwise, if --- any "operation twist", or any "rescue" announcement were made, then market will be boosted --- we will see the short-lived rally back to 11400, but, I do not think this is going to happen.

The Long-Term Bear market is "inevitable" - with high jobless rate (9.1%), bad market, bad consumer confidence... the bear shall lead us back to 9600 mark :)

Market is going to be volatile, with the trading range increasing day-by-day. Current range – 300 points. Traders are advised to reduce exposure on stocks, and short the indices.



Preferred level to short DJIA for this week: 11080.

YM resistance 10950 (trading at 10830 now), with a strong bear candle last Friday, aggressive traders can short at initial shadow 10900, SL 11900, TG 10600.


Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 is sensitive and more volatile than DJIA; it has rallied 4/5, but also continues to drive south and already traded back to previous week low, so similarly, we are also having a long term bearish view in this market.

Current support 2140 (weak), next target (down) 2085, ultimately, Nasdaq 100 will return to the previous strong support 2035 (August 2011 low).

Aggressive Traders can short at initial shadow, NQ last traded at 2126, aggressive short 2140-2147, SL 20 points, TG 2115, TG2 2085.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

EUR/USD on 27-Sep-2011

EUR/USD


Yesterday on EUR/USD, another small bodied candle formed, instead of forming a white candle, EUR/USD formed a small bodied black candle.

My entry to long was triggered SL when EUR/USD break below 1.3400, lowest 1.3360.
and then "fry" to close at 1.3513.

Today will continue to trade for Long, entry at initial shadow 1.3457 SL 1.3400 (again), TG 1.3700 (again).

GBP/USD


Market has been moving up but didn't retrace.
Yesterday open at 1.5478, lowest 1.5430 and then moving up and close at 1.5546, highest of the day is 1.5569.
Cannot enter with initial shadow, although lowest is 1.5430, but my order is not filled.

Try again today to enter long at 1.5500 SL 1.5453 TG 1.5640 - 680.

Next resistance 1.5680 as marked on the chart.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

Daily chart:
two tiny little candle signals two soldiers.
Weekend's meeting and ECB action shall lift EUR/USD for another 2-3 days, expect today to be a bullish candle.

Weekly charts suggest EUR/USD prone to move down, downward potential 1.3300 and strong support 1.3100.

Intraday:
Long with initial shadow 1.3450 SL 1.3400 TG1: 1.3650.

I also hunt for short opportunity for the melt, observe for reversal candlestick pattern at 1.3700 region.

GBP/USD

Check 4 hour chart you will see GBP/USD moving down slow and steady over last 4 weeks when it breaks below EMA50.

Knowing my trading style, I am not able to enter short if the market never pull up / retrace. :(

Based on last Friday's candlestick pattern, I reckon market to form a white candle today, while keeping below 1.5600.

Next resistance 1.5600.

Today's intraday trading:
Long GBP/USD 1.5430 SL 1.5390 TG 1.5600 or close by EOD.

Hunt for short upon retracement, favour reversal candlestick pattern to confirm.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

U.S. stocks fell this week, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the biggest loss since 2008, as the Federal Reserve said risks to the economy have increased and concern grew that policy makers will fail to spur growth.




The S&P 500 fell 2.9 percent on (Wed) Sept. 21 and 3.2 percent the next day (Thu) after the Fed said it will replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries to spur growth.
It is not over, and the likelihood of US recession has clearly risen.

Technical Chart, Weekly:

I am expecting the melt down to 9500 region upon breakout to the downside.
Upside resistance 11720 will not be re-visited again and the breakout is happening SOON.

Daily Chart:


Market risen on last Friday as Europe governments agreed a permanent rescue fund.
The European Central Bank may step up efforts to ease financial-market tensions, including offering banks 12-month loans, Governing Council members said. About $3.5 trillion was erased from global equity values this week before yesterday.
From a higher time frame, market has reached 2L, consolidation is about to finish with DJIA trading near to its key support (August-2011 low), breaking below this low will target 9700 for October 2011.

With ECB effort, and weekend's meeting, I am expecting a rebound to 10850- max 10915 region to happen on DJIA.  YM resistance 10800.

Hunt for short at this level and let's ride the late south train together.

Related News: http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LRZTSY07SXKX01-6K828SC6SK85B3V3BCBOS4M4F1


Nasdaq 100

Market is mercy-less for the opposite traders.
Imagine the impact of how fundamentals move our trading account, from 1 end, to another end.

The ECB announcement has lifted Nasdaq 100 from 2135 region and formed a bullish reversal pattern on daily chart. Sames goes to NQ.

I expect market to pull up at least 50% for Nasdaq 100, return to 2260 region.

Short Term Trading: Bullish
Monday, long at initial shadow (-20 index points), eg. Long NQ support at 2175 SL last friday low or 2135 target 2260, or closed by end of day.

Position Trading: Bearish
Rub our eyes, clean up our spectacles and observe for reversal candlestick pattern.

Effective Trading

"Side Effects" of our World GTI

During the recent launch of our World GTI (Gold Trading Indicator), I start to find some of my team members watching the market more effectively than before.

D said now he has a mini-DAR Wong trading 24 hours for his account, and D said he is going to learn and apply the trading methodology via this 24 hour opportunities.

He is sensitive to market movement nowadays, when the market react to political news (yeah, there are many lately, which affects FX as well as Commodities), D were expecting some trades to be done by the trading robot.

We have spent weeks to encourage him watching the market before World GTI, but he always always very busy.  And now, there's no need to encourage him, he is motivated 24 hours, to watch market effectively hahahaa

So now I have different sets of problems lo~~~







Related: www.World-GTI.com



Market Visualization vs Market Passion

Although I am trading on Robot for Gold, I am trading manual on Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and YM, as usual.

Recent commitment has reduced my time for blogging, but not for market visualisation.
Although I may not have the luxury to watch market from my laptop, I always on the move, I still can view from my mobile.

Remembered last week's meeting, mentor says about the market passion.
New traders were generally passionate, they love the market and willing to spend hours and hours sitting in front of the screen, very passionate and spend good market visualisation.  Compare to 2 months ago, I am spending less time watching the markets, less time on charts, less time reading the CNBC, CNN, Dow Jones newswires... because I am doing it less, I guess I am getting old.

September is coming to an end, and here comes my October events, parties, shows, launching, I need better time management and I need better sleep.  Yeah, I sleep with lights on, usually touch the bed and go direct to dreaming ...

When the quarter finally ends, I wish to recover more of my time to watch market again, then shall see my blog posts increase, more coverage on trades done, FX and commodities.

Monday, September 19, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good day everyone

DJIA

Like Sarah mentioned on Thursday's forecast, DJIA is trading in range and prone to test R1 11500 region, and if market manage to break above 11500, we are going to see R2 11700 level soon.

This happen due to Euro Zone debt crisis that is worsening, how many times are we are hearing it? Monies are moving back into US equity market as safe heaven.

Market has been rising for the past 5 days (1 whole week), last Friday, the Dow finished within 25 points of its high for the day and closed the week up 4.7 percent.

During the weekend we read political pressures on US – White house tax plans like “Buffet Tax” on millionaires, measures to “rescue” Euro-zone debt crisis, and we foresee the coming trading days will be trading based on political issues rather than economic events.

Technical Forecast
Market is prone to trading down, technically after rising for continuous 4-5 days, market is prone to a 1/3 correction. If market reaches higher above 11550, then we shall see the Dow trading towards R2 11700; if market were resisted at current high without moving higher, then we shall see a retracement back to 11350 – 11300 soon, once market traded below 11300, we expect market to test S2 11180.

New traders are advised to stay out and observe how market reflects to news.


NASDAQ 100

Similar to Dow, we forecast a correction to happen after 5 days winning streak, market prone to be supported at S1 2250 – 2240. Strong Support S2 2210.

Once market recovered from the correction, we may see NASDAQ 100 trading back to 2315 and next target 2370.

Monday, September 12, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Technically and fundamentally the Wall Street has entered into a worrying state, commodities and stocks plunge on last Friday after Greek debt emerged. President Obama announced the next stimulus package.

After two years of fighting to content the debt issues, there are rumors and news relating to giving up on Greece, German banks were the biggest holders of Greek government bonds at the end of 2010 with $22.7 billion, Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece.

YM



YM is testing the double bottom support,
Monday may have a slight rebound to 11100, hunt for short and
And target for the week @ 10570.

In case market rally above 11100, next strong resistance 11300.


DJIA

For advanced associates: Trapezium in play and similar pattern happened.

We learned many market entry from Sifu DAR Wong during advanced workshop, example like Trapezium for Daily entry, Butterfly pattern for intraday entry, and Divergence, etc. etc...

So some of us missed the last chance to short when market retrace to Fibo Retracement 50% last week,

Next action is to SHORT upon market retracement, but we reckon there will be less than 1/3 retracement.

Few entry method can consider today:
Stochastic is low, can look for stochastic butterfly pattern during intraday, when it completes - hunt for short.
Aggressive Trader can consider shorting at Initial Shadow around 40 points from opening; ATR 255 points.
1/3 Fibo Retracement / Resistance for today at 11090 - 11170 observe for shorting opportunity here.


Temporary Support for today @ 10950 double bottoms, but it is weak.
Next support @ 10805.


NASDAQ 100

Nasdaq 100 chart seems weak, but not as weak as DJIA; it is trading in a Big Flag pattern and already testing the bottom for 3rd time last week.

Expect support @ 2140 to break (NQ chart 2130) today or Tuesday. Breaching below 2110, Next target we are looking at least 2082.



Fundamental News for Greece and Germany:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/germany-readies-surrender-in-fight-to-save-greece-euro-credit.html

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Beginners' luck?

Remember when we first started on trading, we started with technical analysis, we don't know what the fundamental is, don't know what Quantitative Easing is, don't know why people call Gold a save heaven investment, don't know what is "carry trade", we don't know many things...

We only have some technical analysis terms, drawing lines here and there, we only do what we know, and we make sure we do it.

We made progress, and within a month we make good progress, how to define "Good progress" -- to the beginners, and generally, good progress means "Profit". We keep talking to ourselves that "we are new", "market is risky", "we need to be careful"...

Time pass, we continue making progress, and 6 months has passed.
Our account doubled, tripled, or quadrupled...

We started looking into different type of things, technical, fundamental, psychological...
We thought by doing more things, we shall make better money, we are expecting more.

So, is that important?
That is important for sure.

Is that effective?

I remembered Sifu DAR Wong talked about effective trading during the last Live Trading session.
Only trade with the setup,
When there's a setup, we trade;
When there's none, we do not trade;
We cannot create setup.

Setup can be daily initial shadow; can be anything like the EMA crossings, e.g. fast line crossing the slow line.

But a complete setup shall consist of following:
Money Management -- contract size / position sizing
Trade Setup -- Entry, Stop Loss and Criteria to move SL, Exit (Price Exit, and/or Time Exit).


If the losses have put you off, take time to rest, do something else that you enjoy.
Come back later, and we are always here.


Winning Trade, Losing Trade, Profitable Trade, Good Trade, shall not change our mind, we aim for consistency and we aim to learn a life skill.  Result will come as long as we focus on the process, always monitor the cause and effect, be effective, and do what we know best!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

CL on 8-Sep-2011

Wohoooo.... CL after touching 83.20 channel bottom, did a little congestion and bounced up above 90.00 region, last night it went up to highest 90.48.

It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...


Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.

Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).


Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.

2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?


Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...


From 1 Hour Chart...

Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.

I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).

Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.

Will post my trade if any were done.

Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942

Monday, September 5, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

GBP/USD


GBP/USD has dropped for 3 days to 1.6129 last Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on Friday.
Coming week, forecast short term rebound to happen, GBP/USD trading up to resistance 1.6300.

However, based on Friday price action, reckon market to continue trading in range with a potential to trade lower back to 1.6130 region.  I prefer to long at this support and aim for 1.6300 target exit, up to 1.6450 strong resistance.

EUR/USD



Normally I have similar view on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
But... I think the drop has not finished yet on EUR/USD.  I haven't seen reversal pattern on EUR/USD, so I can only forecast the market to continue trading lower until EMA200 (Daily) 1.4050 region.

Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
4 hour chart: free falling market - bearish

Monday:
EUR/USD is trading at 1.4200 level, prefer to pick short at 1.4240 region, aim to exit 1.4050.

Mid Week:
After falling for consistent 5 days, reckon the market to rebound upon touching EMA200 (Daily), if that happen with a reversal candlestick pattern, EUR/USD will qualify for a Long entry with the target at 50% Fibonacci Retracement around 1.4350.




Sunday, September 4, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

YM = CBOT E-mini Dow ($5) Futures

Technical Chart:
Touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, and market showing congestion.
on DJIA chart, market has just created a EMA4 & EMA20 cross which signify bearish momentum.

Forecast market to continue trading down to the channel bottom, support at 11100 level.
For the week, reckon a market rebound upon touching support 11100, the rebound shall bring market back to EMA50 (4H) or 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Resistance 11370
Strong Resistance 11520 (highest on last Friday)

Prefer to:
Long at 11100 levels.
Short around 11400-500 levels.


DJIA

Technical Chart:
Check DJIA30 Daily Chart, we observed a EMA4 and EMA20 cross upon Friday's correction.

Like what Sarah mentioned on her Thursday forecast, observe for reversal sign to short near 11800, however, market only managed to climb up to 11720, but it has fulfilled 1/2 Fibonacci Retracement and plunge for two days.

Those who had missed the opportunity to short still can hunt for retracement to short.

For PW Traders, look into intraday chart (1H and 30M) we can see market approaching 3L, if the fundamental sentiment is bad, we reckon market to continue trading down to 11050 levels before a significant rebound can happen.

Aggressive Trader can aim to short at 11350 levels, SL 11400, TG 11100.
Long is not recommended, only aim to trade long at channel bottom - during mid week near 11050 with proper risk management (50 pts) and aim for a short term rebound to 11400.


Nasdaq 100

It is a volatile week for Nasdaq 100. From technical chart, Nasdaq 100 is resisted below EMA200 (Daily), it comes with a similar pattern with Dow on intraday (30M and 1H) chart.

Expect market to continue trading down on Monday to hit 3L around 2125 levels.
However, if market fundamental is bad, market may directly plunge to previous strong support 2082 region.

Short when market pull up to 2185 level, target exit 2125.

Back!

Whooops!
The past week was filled with many public holidays, my Malay friends were celebrating Hari Raya (New Year) and it is Malaysian National Day on 31st August 2011.

So I also declared a holiday for myself, didn't trade but still watch the market.

First time I visit a Malay friend's house and tried Rendang, a lot of tasty home-cooked Malay food, home-made cookies, I feel very happy to go to her house, play with her lazy cat and feel very warm with her hospitality.

Not only that, we have just launched our World Gold Trading Indicator (GTI) to the public and unexpectedly the boardroom is full, and some guest have to stand and squeeze into the room, thanks to the support!!

www.World-GTI.com

Alright, so we are back, and lets look forward to what's gonna happen next week on Dow, GBP, and Gold.

Stay tuned...