Sunday, December 4, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)


It is a volatile week...

And my view also changed with the week's market action.

Initially it was:

Market fulfilled 1/3 retracement, with the resistance on EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, and divergence in hourly chart, market turn down.
From 1.3440 down to 1.3250.
The trade was successful.

However, market rebounded from this low, and sharply risen above previous resistance, and fulfilled FR50 in a smaller time frame.

Let’s see what happened... and lets take the bearish view bullish... market just found a reliable support and turned up...

And these price action, result in a change of my short term view.

Then my view becomes:

This is a daily chart, and let’s takes the peak in end Oct-2011 as the start of the Fibo retracement, therefore the start of retracement begins from the low formed 2 weeks ago.

Market has found a solid support at 1.3210. Then 1.3260.

Reckon market to continue this retracement, up up up to FR50, which coincide with PowerWave initial wave target price 1.3720.


GBP/USD is easier to read... XD

Nice retracement. 1/3, resisted, and then breakout, retrace to 1/2, and now the price action is mixed, bearish bias.

Let's take a look at daily chart.

GBP/USD has retrace 50% from the double top and travel between the EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
From daily chart outlook, it is bearish bias especially after Friday's sharp fall @ midnight.

I was not feeling well last Friday, after taking the cold medicine, I was half asleep - but still shorted the market - I think aggressive trading/ gambling is still my nature =).

Monday reckon market to continue the quiet price action and slowly move up to 1.5630-640 before it extends another leg down to 1.5530 to test support and return to 2nd support 1.5450.

My trading plan for GBP/USD is to short at the same 1.5630-640 region, SL 1.5680, TG 1.5450 / EOD.

Still Sneezing,

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