DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 8-Oct-2012

We mentioned 13350 pts. is the critical level for Dow, closing below 13350 pts. shall confirm bearish sentiment.

Last Monday 1/10/12: DJIA opens at 13447.80 pts., wen to the lowest point 13,425.30 on Tuesday 2/10 and close at 13610.15 pts. on Friday.

Market didn’t turn bearish, and didn’t turn bullish yet –previous easing has push up the stocks and commodity prices.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49274085

Year 2008, when Fed announced QE in late November, market drives up by 400 pts. in a day and then spurred a month-long rally.
(buying $600 billion MBS)

Year 2010, Fed announces QE2, in November, 3/4 Nov 2010, market drives up 217 pts. in a day, continues to move up higher but tumbled 400 pts. in the following week.
(buying $600 billion Treasury Shares)
Year 2012, Fed announces QE3 in September, 13 Sep 2012, market drives up by 185 pts. in a day
(buying $40 billion of MBS per month, with no limit, open ended = no ending date)

Quantitative Easing (QE) Infinity (rumors called it) has bring market up, but capped below 13700 pts.
What we might want to know is:
1. Whether market has reached the top and
2. Whether market would tumble as investors digest this information
Its hard to tell as the election is on its way and I suspect market shall continue to trade sideways above 13350, testing 13700.

Technical Forecast

I use weekly chart to identify major support resistance and the same is plotted into daily chart.

Daily Chart: Market is supported above 13350, and if market tumbled and closed below 13300, it shall plunge to 13050 pts.

Elections, elections, elections, market is still in a major up trend, and lets say DJIA manage to break up above this overhead resistance level 13700, then it is likely to shoot up to 14000.

It shall take time, but generally we have to be patient to wait for the breakup / breakdown. Market is trading sideways as profit taking is happening.

4 Hour Chart: Bull – Bear Tug of War, market was trading below EMA50 last week of Sep 12, and stayed above EMA50 last week.

We suspect the sideways movement to continue and stay patience for the next big moves.

However, for intraday trade, we favour picking Long near EMA50 (4H) 13500 pts. SL 13450 TG 13650 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 1-Oct-2012

Concerns over Euro zone sovereign debt issues dragged Wall Street market down last week.
Stocks ended lower but posted the best gain since Quarter 3 since 2010.

DJIA slipped 48.84 pts last Friday to close at 13,437.13 pts (-0.36%).

While September is historically the worst performing months for stocks, DJIA rallied 2.7% this month, logging the third largest gain in 2012.

For the quarter DJIA posted robust gains of 4.32%.

Generally traders are cautious about this quarter (October 1st is here!) – with the elections and fiscal cliff coming up, and we expect some profit taking to happen during next couple of months.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the weekly chart we might observed that DJIA has posted a bearish candlestick pattern, and DJIA is trading at a crucial level – breaking below 13350 pts shall confirm the bearish sentiment in daily chart which sets the new trend for coming 2 weeks.

4 Hour chart has signals a bearish sentiments and market is currently resisted below 13500 pts (EMA50, 4H), Support 13350 pts.

We suggest to stay out or to short when market try to pierce above 13500 pts but failed.

Transaction

Gold on 27 Sep 2012

4H chart
Green line is EMA50 which is the guide line i normally use to identify support/ resistance.




Last done $1756 and it seems market shifted from bullish to correction phase.

This green line which hover around $1760 has turned from support to resistance.



Above is gold 1H chart and u might identify the similar pattern - market is capped below 1760.

I hv entered a short at market ($1756). Looking forward to the south train below 1740.

Gold on Tue 25 Sep 2012

It was wierd, I entered at market to long Gold at $1757.73 (market order, instant execution) and I also created a pending order to long at $1755, but market didn't come down, and started to trade upwards.

Market was choppy for the past 2 weeks, but yesterday it was a smooth one...
Current support is $1755 since market has resumed upward testing this low for 3rd time in a week.

I am looking forward to Gold breaking the top resistance 1786 and trade towards March high $1790 and then August 2011 high $1800.

But, if a retracement were to happen, it could bring Gold down to $1715, then  $1690.
I don't wish to see Gold testing strong support $1675 but this would be the last defence for uptrend.

In summary:
TG2: 1800
TG1: 1790
Daily Target: 1786
Current Support 1755
S1: 1715
S2: 1690
S3: 1675

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 24 Sep 2012

DJIA

Last week, Apple announced iPhone 5, and the share price closing up above $700 per share.
Poor chinese manufacturing data sync with slowdown in US and UK.
We are moving closer to the quarter end and we expect traders’ to wrap up their trades while moving into a rocky / choppy 4th quarter.

With elections coming up, and a few economic data such as: consumer confidence,
pending home sales, fed balance sheet & money supply (read: CNBC link) we expect market to trade sideways in the coming week.

Stay out.

Resistance: 13660
Current support: 13500
Support: 13370



Nasdaq 100

Nasadq 100 continue moving north with a slower momentum and showing support at 2845 pts.
Expect market to trade sideways bias up.

Support: 2845 pts
Resistance: 2880 pts
Like the channel in the chart below (NASDAQ 100 4H).

Work out, workshops

A dumbbell, a yoga mat, get ur health in shape.




Coming months will be workshops, workout, and more workout!

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Kind and Considerate

the vibes...

there are character you like, and some character you don't..
when it comes to those you are less favour of, would you reject?  Would you send the negative vibes?

I did, to the same bloody person who (have no choice) but come in right before 6pm and give me tasks to do.
Yeah, I send the negative vibes -- and I hope it doesn't bounce back to me.

Good read from Ralph Marston:

The Greatest Success link

You don’t have to be famous to be important. You don’t have to be a celebrity to be successful.

You don’t have to live in opulent luxury to be rich. You don’t have to be irresponsible to be free.

You don’t have to be outrageous to be creative. You don’t have to be abusive to be impressive.

You can be quietly humble and still be amazingly effective. You can be kind and considerate and still have great influence.

Just because people don’t fall at your feet and worship you, doesn’t mean you are a failure. Quiet success is just as sweet as loud, flamboyant success, and usually much more real.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 17 Sep 2012

On Thursday, Fedebral Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced QE3 policy, to expand its bond purchase program of mortgage bond at USD40 billion per month, target to boost housing growth and job creation. No limit has been mentioned.

Stocks, and commodities (look at Gold!) rose last Thursday and Friday.

DJIA

In line with ECB plan to buy government bonds of struggling euro zone countries and US Federal Reserves monthly USD40 billion Bond Purchase Program has bring Dow to the highest closing level in nearly 5 years.

After this mid-week euphoria, a more sober period for market may be coming as investors and traders digest what the stimulus means in the long term.

US elections in November, tax and spending cuts, corporate earnings, if the unerlying economic data stays the same, we are going to see the market drop a bit, and trading sideways until election.

Technical Forecast:
Market to trade sideways digesting the mid-week hype.

Market has hit 2L target 13578 pts and technically it should be trading sideways.

Resistance - current high: 13650 pts
Immediate support: 13505 pts
Strong Support: 13350 pts

Sideways trading bias down towards 1/3 @ 13250-300 for the rally since July 2012.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has marched up to 12 years highs.
Bullish and immediate support at 2818 pts.
Strong support 2803 pts.

While we expect market to digest the stimulus announcements, market shall trade sideways in a flag pattern before resuming the up trend.

Stay out for the week while observe for trading opportunities around these support levels.

Nano Mist and Yummy Chinese Food

I am not going to talk much about market.
QE3 is announced.

Gold price rallied $100 in a week, stocks new high...

====

I visit Car's International yesterday intend to do car wash.
And here is a successful upsell.

I am considering of the windscreen treatment.
He upsell me front windscreen with rear windscreen treatment.

worth RM235 (Ringgit Malaysia) equivalent to $95 SGD or $77 USD.
From Car wash which is is only RM10 / $4 SGD / $3.3 USD
Or a Front windscreen GP Coat Treatment which costs RM135 / $54 SGD / $44 USD.

I ended up doing GP Coat treatment (Front & Rear windscreen) + Polish + Wax + Nano Mist for my white color princess.

When I collect my car, she is true beaty with dashboard shine, tyre shine, I am satisfied.
Smells good too!

While I am driving home, I am hoping for rain, to test the windscreen treatment.  And it rains at night before I hit the dance floor.  The rain stopped when I finish dancing, teaching, I splash some plain water and wipe it dry.

It was a good day, and I am happy because everything go as planned except the sucessful upsell hahaha

=====

At night I had a bad dream, someone came into my car, and taking some strong smell chinese food, the smell from the food is good, but it is not good if it stays in the car, and stinks!

And in my dream, I still trying to hold my temper while telling this nice guy: "take laaa, take the food in the car, its alright....." but my heart is torn into pieces because my princess is so clean!!!!

I am so fake!

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

This week on Bloomberg Radio, on TV, I have seen the speech by Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and election is so so hot!

Might be interesting to read about this:

Forex Flash: Time to stop worrying about the EUR and to start worrying about the USD


There are many news, and expectation on QE, is QE3 possible?
many would have hoped for QE3, and does US really has capacity to print more and flush their currency value down?
If we look into USD Index, it has traded sharply lower last Friday - closed below 200 days EMA @ 80.16 for the first time since Oct 2011.

Since QE is not on the table, and whether Fed is going to give the fix or not is unclear, I reckon EMA200 to give support, and I expect USD Index to rebound next 2-3 days and return to 80.80 region.

DJIA

It has turned from bearish to bullish without touching 12950, although initially we at Ayumi the Novice trader thinks that it should fall!

However, DJIA still capped below 13350 pts, and we are unsure of the next direction.

Check the intraday chart below:

DJIA 4 Hours Chart:
Broke up the channel and traded the similar range up, but still capped below resistance.

both 30 mins & 1 hour chart didn't show oversold nor tendency to turn down from current momentum, and neither giving clue of the next direction.

I prefer to stay out and observe unless intraday 30 mins / 1 hour chart has approached 13350 pts, resisted down, or breakup this resistance.

Till then I have no position but watching other instruments like Gold and CL or trading the USD Index till mid week after the adjustment has completed.

Nasdaq 100

It came out on the headline that Nasdaq 100 has ended highest since 2000.
Google it.

Bullish momentum.

Can only trade with initial shadow, not sure where the bullish momentum will stop.
Initial shadow is 6 pts, day range is 30 pts.
If you have traded the Nasdaq 100, you  know it is very rare chance for traders to get in at initial shadow if the day is set to fly... repeat: it is very hard to get in, but once u are there in the right move, it is like an unlimited fortune, happy hunting.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold.. NFP, Euro news...

I wished I could enter, I thought I have got it..
This week, Gold - it just flew, without me in it.

Gold on Wed 5-Sep-2012

well, it is one day after labour day.

Gold forecast for the week starting 4th Sep 2012

Technical Forecast

Gold [XAU/USD] Weekly Chart

as you can see, Gold price has break above the flag pattern, and its early...
refer to my previous post I Like About Gold - Gold forecast end August.

Gold has break up above 1670 and confirmed the bullish trend, though, it is early, I am kind of surprised, and still in disbelieve.  But I accept the fact that it is Bullish.

Gold Daily Chart (above)
There are 3 indications supporting the bullish view.
1. Short term bullish sentiment (1)
2. Mid term bullish sentiment (2)
3. Breaking above weekly resistance line

The bullish sentiment shall last 3-4 weeks upon this confirmation.

As previous week correction didn't come down to 50%, so I reckon market to hit another leg up to $1720 before a technical correction could happen.
If it does reached $1720 and started to correct, expect market to hold at Strong support $1675.

so.... initiate Long.
Initial shadow $5

Couldn't trade short now... although I am trained to trade reversals... [reminding myself]

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA on Wed 5-Sep-2012

DJIA 1 Hour Chart
Market and break below support as my weekly forecast - shall reach 12950 pts soon.

DJIA 4 Hour Chart
Look at the bigger time frame - market is trading towards support level 12900 - 950 pts, if this support couldn't hold, then bearish momentum shall continue and 12780 pts will be next target.

Related post: DJIA Weekly Forecast

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Wooooo!!! September month has finally arrived! My schedule is getting fuller and fuller, every weekends is occupied!! =)

Apart from trading, I am designing the year 2 and year 3 'syllabus' for my dance classes, and planning to renovate a vacant room to convert it to a mini dance floor. A full mirror really can't satisfy me.. i want to see more of myself :) and seeing how I look like when I am turning around... ops, back to topic.

I hope everyone is excited as I am - plan, and work hard!


DJIA forecast for the week starting 3 Sep 2012

Though Bernanke, speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, dashed some hopes for a signal of quick action, his comments bolstered bets that the central bank was closer to providing more stimulus for an economy that is close to stalling.

stocks has been flat much of last week except Friday.  For the month, Dow has rose 0.6%. Volume was light but above the low levels of earlier in week. The four other days this week were among the five lowest for volume all year.

Technical Analysis

Dow is currently resisted under 13150, current resistance 13100.
After the speaking in Jackson Hole market has shoot up to 13155 and brought the stochastic is high (overbought), reckon market to suffer sideways movement testing the resistance 13100 - 13150 pts in a symmetrical triangle pattern.

suggest to stay out and observe for opportunity towards breakout.

breaking up the resistance level shall lead Dow towards 13200 pts then 13350 pts.
breaking below support shall bring Dow down to 12950 pts then 12780 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Bullish on Nasdaq 100 -- it has posted the best performing month since February 2012.
all time high, what's more, breaking higher above 2800 pts will only bring Nasdaq 100 higher towards the ceiling of any chart :)

If there's a technical correction Nasdaq 100 shall fall to main support 2720 pts before the rally continues (although I don't think Nasdaq 100 would settle so low).

I like about Gold

For the week, I'm drenched in Gold.

Long a few times, triggered stop loss a few times ... I think 5 times in total.

Some stop loss are losses, some are little profit after market moves in favour.

I'm mentally challenged after the last time my stop loss is triggered. Yet I'm still a strong believer that.. Gold could FLY!

The last 2 attempt to Long - Gold is hovering around EMA50 (4 hrs chart).

And due to many times of losing this Long position, fear creeping in... My account is down 30%+

I only have 2 ideas:

1. Just take profit (afraid that they could go away)
So I adjusted my profit target down

2. If the Long trade is gone again and again... Just let the account burn, anyhow, I might need to experience (burning my trading account) one day.

Gold not only surge up 1670, it went up 1690.

I like the mental game, yeah, market not only made it to 2L, but 3L (powerwave), I'm happy for 2 things:

1. happy that my forecast is printed on the chart - and

2. I'm happy to discover that :
my mind is yet ready (i will work on it) - to ride the full wave.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

Gold - XAU/USD

I hv an open position last night,
I moved SL to $1656 when I see handsome floating profit while Gold trade around $1661.

My Long position was triggered at preset stop loss last night when I was asleep.

A bit unhappy. Cuz this is the 3rd time this week this type of trade happens. SL is near. Triggered.

This morning when the sky is still dark, and I'm still feeling low - due to the losses, I create a pending order to Long at $1655.

Based on PowerWave method, this entry price should be ideal and my Stop Loss is preset at yesterday Low.

2L target is around $1674, and I preset target exit around $1670.

Waiting for Beige Book news release.



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Waiting for Friday

There are a few economic releases traders will be eyeing Wednesday, but the main topic will once more be the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will give there Friday.

Today (Wednesday)
economic data includes:

10pm SG/MY Time: pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET

8:30pm SG/MY Time: second look at second quarter GDP, at 8:30 a.m ET.

2am SG/MY Time (Thursday)
The biggest release of the day comes at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed puts out its beige book on the economy, which is sure to be picked over for any discussion of employment.

Read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48816277

Hurricane Isaac is affecting the energy prices, check NYMEX Crude.

Transaction

Short Gold at 8:25pm (GMT+8 SG/MY Time)
Short @ $1666
SL $1669 (-$3)
TG $1649 ($17)




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

6:30pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time)

Short US30 @ 13130 pts
SL 13150 pts (20 pts)
TG 13050 (80 pts)




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

I'm late, I'm in.
30 minutes chart showing bearish candlestick pattern.

Short Gold 4:40pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time)
Short 1672.50
SL 1675 (-$2.50)
TG 1652.50 ($20)





- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Topic over the last weekend was mostly on Apple Inc legal victory over Samsung Electronics Co Ltd in San Jose, California.

And main concern now is whether Federal Reserves will continue to inject stimulus in the market – a speech by Ben Bernanke this Friday at the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming could offer some clues.

The market could be bumpy this week ahead of Friday’s meeting.

Read: Reuters :: US Week Ahead

DJIA forecast for the week starting 27 Aug 2012

Read my previous week forecast here:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2012/08/djia-and-nasdaq-100_20.html

Market failed to reach 13,350 pts but came pretty close to it, then suffer most of the fall towards the end of the week except pullback of 100 pts on last Friday.

Market has fallen to the strong support 13150 pts now, bullish momentum has slowed down and I reckon market to swing up and down between 13300 – 13050 pts these few days.

Trades could be established when market is testing resistance 13300 or support 13050, but I don’t like to enter to any trades if it was trading in between - like current level 13175 pts.

I prefer to stay out.

i like about Gold

Gold forecast for the week starting 27 Aug 2012

for those who traded gold, you might have seen multiple bullish technical indicators showing collective bull patterns last week and the rally is driving me out of my mind.

I entered Long on 20-Aug at $1619.
wanted to place the target exit at 1639, this is a mistake, or this is done on purpose?  I took profit at 1621 ($2 instead of $20).

Gold is trading near 1670.
far above my target exit.

I like it, i made some money, although not as much as I have planned to make, but my forecast has printed the chart ^.^

[padding my own shoulders]

back to the technical forecast:
Daily Chart: Finally Gold has broke up from the sideways pattern, and after 3 days of long white candle (every day average $20), market has shown some technical correction last Friday.

shall the technical correction continues, support lies at $1647-50, and i forecast market to trade sideways testing this support.

please take a look at weekly chart, gold has traded near high, gold needs to break up above 1670 to confirm the bullish trend.

Read:
Gold survey results: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/gold-bulls-strongest-in-nine-months-as-hoard-builds-commodities.html

If you have read this link, you realize market sentiment is BULLISH - but i am holding a sideways bearish view, capped between 1650-1670.

Let's say gold continue technical correction to $1650, I am still having a long term bullish view on Gold, unless it settles below strong support $1630.

Step by Step of Traders Life

I could not hold my smile while reading this article in the office.


I found this from Julia Clara blog:

http://fx-juliaclara.blogspot.com/p/step-by-step-of-traders-life_21.html


Do read!

Found a traders blog that I am gonna follow - Trading Arcade:

http://www.tradingarcade.com/

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 20 August 2012

The number of unemployment ticked up from 364k (revised from 361k) to 366k without big surprise. Housing starts dropped to 764k (consensus 757k), but building permits has risen to 812k – highest since August 2008 just before Lehman. Retail sales advanced for the first time in last 4 months for 0.8% in July.

Manufacturing remains weak spot of the US economy, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is short of expectation showing contraction in manufacturing.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, slowed down. I remain DJIA target 13350 pts. Daily Chart: Bullish – momentum is reduced- day range is contracting from 107 pts. to 68 pts.
Intraday Chart: lack of momentum and lackluster market is capped below 13300 and more booster is required to push the index higher. 30 minutes chart is showing a reversal signal indicating market is due to a correction soon.
Current support 13250, next support 13150.
Still expecting market to go up gradually to 13350 pts.
Intraday trade: Long at initial shadow near current support 13250 TG 13350 / close EOD.

Nasdaq 100

Market has moved higher and higher each day for Nasdaq 100 an it has hit our target 2748/50 without much hesitation.
Weekly Chart: weekly candle shows bullishness and market shall continue up to test pincer top 2794 (April 2012 high).
Daily Chart: bullish, day range contracted from 24 pts. to 18 pts., I think this part shall be similar to Dow, and we expect market to trade slowly towards resistance 2795.

Intraday Chart: neutral.
Current support 2765 pts., strong support 2325.

Wishing Muslims Selamat Hari Raya!

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 13 Aug 2012

Jobless claims unexpectedly slid by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended August 4, proving more jobs creations in market for the unemployed.

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 0.6 percent drop in the import-price index followed a 2.4 percent decline in June;
Costs excluding fuel decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest decline in two years.
Showing the weak global demand depressing prices.

U.S. export prices climbed 0.5 percent in July, after falling 1.7 percent the previous month. Prices of farm exports climbed 6.4 percent and those of non-farm goods decreased 0.3 percent.

Last Week

Market is generally HOPING for QE3 and pushed the index higher;
Market is bullish and as per last week forecast, the support has again moved up from 12950 to 13050 – a level showing group supports from Monday to Friday.

While market is moving closer up to target level 13350, the downward pressure on DJIA with recent corn prices (increase of raw material to food manufacturers) is looming.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, I maintain DJIA target at 13350 pts.
Daily Chart: Bullish, average day range is diminishing. Trading volume has reduced, and lower than average daily volume.

Intraday chart: potential up towards 13350 but downward pressure is developing with the resistance at 13250 pts. in line with overbought signal.

We reckon market to suffer a little bit of correction on Monday, from 13200 to 13150 pts. and then trading sideways bias up towards target.

Intraday trading preference: long near 13150, close EOD or near 13300-13350.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has posted another strong gains, and group support level moves up to 2706 and our target remains at 2748 – 2750 pts.

Hunt for long at daily initial shadow near 2718 pts., close EOD or target level 2748.

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

Short Gold at market, two hours trade.

based on candlestick pattern near resistance and stochastic overbought.

EUR/USD on Fri 10 Aug 2012

its late.. and the chart is getting exciting.

EUR/USD

it came down, touches first target.
and currently rebounded (sharply).

at the first sight, you may not want to miss this UP UP
may want to enter long immediately?

I took another sip of my Caramel Macchiato...
think back of my big picture..
yeah, I m not that bullish, and since I m having the bearish view, I m gotta stick to the plan, short at resistance.
so, looking at the current slide from 1.2450 to 1.2250, when market move up to 1.2350, I wish to short.

no, I WANT TO Short.

and this time the downward target remain at 1.2200 or 1.9950.
I hv a few pit stops here to take profit which is the support level which shall attract some pull back...

fingers crossed.

Chart attached.

EUR/USD on Wed 8-Aug-2012

Market went up towards 1.2450, without reaching the anticipated resistance level, and fall for 100 pips in 24 hrs.

The range is small, but get to expand a little bit with today's fall.
Unlike what we have anticipated - a sharp fall down, market is coming down gradually, and reach the price level which is neutral - and I anticipate another 24 hrs of sideways movement.

short term view (1 day) - sideways - bias up, towards resistance - 1.2400.
support 1.2330.

I am anticipating a resistance at 1.2400 to enter shorts with TG1: 1.2250, TG2: 1.2150.

EUR/USD on Tue 7-Aug-2012

Market is quiet, EUR is rising against USD amid the poor economic data from Germany, it is moving up towards our target level 1.2500.

This is a level I wished market could show resistance then push EUR/USD back down to what I hope to see (1.9950-1.2000).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

on 6 Aug 2012

It has been a while I don’t get an off day.

It’s the Selangor State holiday in Malaysia, so the KL stock market is open, global stock market is open. I am sitting in front of the PC, listening to Bloomberg radio, watching Live chart, while waiting for my car to be ready.

Life has been so interesting, so complete with all the activities I like. I know there are threats, robbery n its not safe even in the mall car park.. I wish all the Malaysian readers, all readers safe and blessed. Wishing all Muslims Happy Ramadan.

OK, it has been a while… I didn’t post my forecast on currency pairs unless during my bi-monthly issue in the local mandarin magazine.

EUR/USD

Technical forecast

Weekly Chart:

Market is in a bearish trend since May 2012.
Based on the cycle trend, the fall is likely to complete when market hit 1.2000 or worse 1.9950.

Daily Chart:
Although market has not hit 1.2000, it has already shown us bullish sentiment with an inverted head an shoulder pattern.

I doubt ECB would be able to rescue Greece… Spain.. Italy… Portugal.. I still have the idea that market shall fall to 1.9950 – 1.2000.

That was what I feel, based on what we see from the inverted head & shoulder pattern, and the bullish crossing of EMA4 and EMA20, market shall rise to 1.2500.

Intraday 4H Chart:
Market just posted a bearish candle, and after last Friday’s surge, a technical correction is normal, current support 1.2350, strong support 1.2250.

Intraday 60Mins and 30Mins Chart:
Not in overbought zone, I reckon after technical correction, market shall head back towards 1.2500.

Day trade, initial shadow to long near current support 1.2350 exit EOD or 1.2500.

Market is generally optimistic as Greece could meet the bailout requirement and I suppose the bullish sentiment could last for 2-3 days.

However, I still hope market to come down to 1.2000, I choose to day trade than to hold on to Long position – how could Euro continue to surge since the whole Euro Zone is in a life support system, high jobless rate, and weak economic figures?

Trade what I see. Wait what I hope.

Cheers to all
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 6-Aug-2012

DJIA

Last Friday DJIA surged more than 200 points to close at 13096.17 pts after a better-than-expectation jobs report. Non-Farm Payrolls increased to 163k jobs in July, better than expectation 101k and higher than June 64k revised figure.

This sharp gains as erased 4 days losing streak. For the week, Dow rose 0.17%.

Technical Forecast:

Market has surged to 13096, support moved up to 12950. I maintain the same view, once market break above the sideways pattern, next target we are expecting market to go towards 13350.

Intraday char: market trending up with a lot of downside noise, 1 hour chart showing overbought and we suspect market to suffer a little bit of technical correction to previous group support 13050 or strong support 13000 before turning up to the target level.

Pay attention to 9pm (GMT+8 ) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Monday and Tuesday.

Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow, expect a technical pull back to 2670, or strong support 2660 before going towards 2700.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 30 Jul 2012

Hi traders

I returned from a dance workshop this evening, learning from two gurus from the middle eastern dance – rhythms and culture and the combinations.

I was a fun weekend, and I was trying to run Broco (MT4) on my system but unable to run may be due to system error.  I am using the chart from my broker so I avoid quoting the levels to avoid confusion.

Last week we have a roller coaster ride, lower than expectation new home sales and pending home sales, amid from the lousy company earnings report, and low consumer confidence, announcement from ECB has lifted market confidence and Dow, crossed above 13000 first time since May 2012.

Next week market focuses on the meeting between ECB an US Federal Reserve.

Technical Forecast

Technically from Daily chart, DJIA has posted a breakout and as per last week’s posting, once DJIA break above 13000, we are expecting the rise to continue up to 13300-350.

Check last week’s daily chart to get an idea of this breakout (BKO) from the ascending triangle.

Link: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzHHMBSFltdSWuiy67E4iJS1ny6TliFt7NAi92QaQSRx79D5v68SirKk5_Ru6kOIdu9Gr2L7K6ce-AkGDPmqiTzhJWlHhFnhllHWxa6zWBl5pobwUfjYg-MIqksRDEbtBSq66hzPT6ksQ/s1600/07-22+djia+d.gif

Hunt for long at initial shadow on Monday.  Target exit EOD or the above level 13300-350 pts.

Related:

http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2012/07/djia-and-nasdaq-100_22.html

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 23-Jul-2012

Towards the end of last week, better-than-expected earnings were in trend and market was trading sideways on Monday then traded to highest 12977.57 before market settle down at 12822.57 pts.

Next week, earnings will continue to catch the attention of investors and euro zone crisis will also share the spot light. Among all, it start from Tuesday from Facebook earnings, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, and Flash Manufacturing PMI for July 2012.

Technical Forecast

From Weekly chart: DJIA has found its support strong 12500 and the support moved up to 12650 but resistance stays at 13000 levels, this means DJIA was trading in an ascending triangle. While another weekly candle formed, we are moving towards the end of this sideways market.

Weekly Chart:


Daily Chart:
Here we are near the end of July and as what I mentioned in the weekly chart, we can see the consolidation pattern better and we are really close to the end of current trend.

While market has moved up the support level higher each week, we reckon support for this week stays at 12700 and resistance stays strong 13000.

Trade for the week:

Market is going to trade in minimum range on Monday as there’s no announcement, it is likely to be under pressure towards 12750 (EMA50 on 4H), market shall not breach 12700 to complete this cycle. Towards the announcement or FOMC statements an many other Euro Zone PMI data, market shall trade sideways challenging the top 12900-13000.

Trade at main support / resistance with 50 pts. SL and target exit EOD not more than 2 days at day range.

The next move:

Once the market has accumulated enough strength, there shall be a breakout either breaking above 13000 towards 13350, or breaking below 12700 and go down towards 12500.


Nasdaq 100
The chart pattern is different for Nasdaq 100, market has formed a new high last week and currently a technical correction is desirable while expecting the earnings from Facebook and Apple.

Current support 2600, Strong support 2585.

Enter long at 2610 is desirable on Monday SL 10 pts. away target exit 2630, if market manage to stays above 2618 on Monday closing, you might want to hold on to Long until Tuesday expect market to make another surge up to form new high. Abandon Long if market traded below 2585.

Trade update

Gold long position

Market came down and Triggered SL, then reversed and hit target.
Ops

Based on GMT+8 SG/MY time on 16/7/2012




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

Marker order
Long Gold @ 1586 x 20
SL 1583 (-$60)
TG 1596 (+$200)

Pending order to Long at 1585 x 20
SL 1581 (-$80)
TG 1597 (+$240)



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 16-Jul-2012

It was a reporting season, and last week DJIA suffered 4 consecutive losing days from weekly open 12772.02 pts to low 12492.33 pts, the longest losing streak since May 2012.

Last Friday DJIA rebounded and gain 203.82 pts result a positive close for the week at 12777.09 pts.

Market was led by JPMorgan Q2 earnings $1.21 per share on revenue of @22.9 billion vs forecast of 70 cents per share on revenue of @21.8 billion and Producer Price up 0.1%, above expectation of -0.3%.

From technical chart we reckon this bullish momentum to continue on Monday and DJIA shall find its strong support at 12680 and return to resistance 12830 pts.

YM (currently trading at 12699 pts )
Daily chart reflected that market has rallied up to resistance 12760 region and shall trade sideways bias up to test this resistance.  Strong support 12630 pts.

Should YM failed to break this resistance 12760 and fall below 12630, this shall form its new resistance and we shall expect another series of losing streak.

The downside target is 12530, then 12430 before testing last June low 12385.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 chart is slightly bearish compare to Dow as Nasdaq 100 is currently trading near its EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, it is resisted around 2582 pts.

From Daily candle we expect Nasdaq 100 to post another bullish candle today and close near 2595 pts to form divergence in intraday 30 mins chart before coming down to 2560 pts.

News:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress on July 17 / 18, to give his semi- annual monetary policy testimony. pay attention to your position and beware of fundamental news as it will lead the next market direction.

Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-to-testify-before-congress-2012-7

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 9-Jul-2012

Last Friday Non Farm Payroll announces low non-farm payroll, although there are 3,000 gains result in the 80,000 gain in employment but this figure is fall short of market expectation of 100,000 gains.
Growth in private payroll was the weakest in 10 months.

US stocks fell in line with the low job creation, unemployment rate stood unchanged above 8% at 8.2%.

DJIA 124.20 pts and close at 12,772.47 on last Friday.
DJIA fell 103.38 pts (-0.8%) for the week.

From the weekly chart, market seems neutral and from the candlestick pattern we observe a little bit of pull back on last Friday when DJIA traded down to 12703.07 pts.
From intraday (4H) this low 12703.07 pts also touching EMA50 (4H) which signifies market were finding support near 12700.

Current resistance 12800.

We reckon market to trade between 12700-12800 on Monday.

YM (Broco)

Early of the week,
We reckon market to trade between current support 12650 and current resistance 12780.

We forecast after a lackluster Monday, market might trade down to test new low 12620 (2L) before a technical rebound back to 12750 again.
Pay attention to Wednesday 8:30pm Trade Balance and 2am FOMC meeting minutes.  Market were generally hoping for positive announcement which might drive the market up.

Next economic figures to look out is Friday 8:30pm PPI which might be the key driver to next market direction.

Technically, if resistance 12750-780 is strong then we might see another leg down towards target 12480.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart show more bearish sentiment than Dow, however, a similar pullback shows that the same might happen – consolidation between 2600 – 2620.

This pull up might be capped at 2620, lets say market break above 2620 next resistance 2630.

Similar to Dow, I am hunting for short towards mid / end of the week near the above mentioned resistance 2620 / 2630 and aim to take profit at TG1: 2600 and TG2: next support 2585.

Wish all has a profitable trading week.

Cheers
Ayumi

EUR/USD on Wed 4-Jul-2012

I was reading soulfire blog and he kind of reminds me to check my statements and keep track of my own performance.

I extracted my transaction for Jun-2012 month and its a positive result with only 1/3 of my normal number of transactions.

So, rather than wanting to trade everyday, trade when I am certain and put more focus in the market.

EUR/USD

I reckon market to suffer trade sideways bias down during early of the month, and estimate market to pull up after testing 1.2500 support or maximum to the purple support line estimate 1.2400 - 1.2450.

after that market to continue pulling up to 1.2900 resistance level (horizontal red line).

for July 2012, market to trade within 1.2500-1.2900 (400 pips)

4 Hour Chart: I reckon market to trade sideways bias down towards 1.2500 for 1st week of July before moving up.

However, the correction down might not be significant if market manage to stay above 1.2560 (EMA50 in 4H) then it shall not visit 1.2500 but will right away trading up towards 1.2700 then 1.2900.

early of this week hunt for short, and wait for opportunity to long when market approaches weekly support 1.2500 or upward support line 1.2400.

Transaction

on Tue 3-Jul-2012

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading towards strong support 1.5800 but the market is somehow showing weakness at current resistance 1.5700.

Market is lackluster and on 30 mins chart it shows the first full black bar and price has traded below MMA200 - a short term trading setup that I seldom use.

I shorted GBP/USD at 1.5675, SL 1.5710, TP 1.5590.
The target price might be adjusted lower if market shows more downward momentum.
Current support 1.5650, S1: 1.5570 then S2: 1.5520.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 25th June 2012

Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 both ended in red, Nasdaq 100 gained; the Dow shed 0.9%, the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 ended 0.5% higher.

Current level 12600-12650 is a key to watch if DJIA manage to stay above then it can continue trading higher to 12900 region again, failure which will come down to support 12400 and 12300.

YM

Monday, I suspect market to trade sidways bias up above current support 12500, I prefer to enter Long near initial shadow 12560-42 = 12515-520, SL 40 pts away, TG 150 pts.


YM
2012-06-25 Mon 2:48pm (GMT+8)
30 Mins Chart

Map It in you Mind!

I ventured into Sales since 2007 and it has been 5 years, or more.

I have made good money with the exchange of time, meals, health and friends.

This is the 3^rd company I am going to work with, for my sales career, and it is the first time, I job hop into a similar industry.

IT, this happen may be because I think that I am not successful enough, or I have not figure out the way – to be successful in the IT business.  And IT, information technology, is fast moving, but customers, are slow.

For enterprise to change, and adapt to the latest technologies, it’s a challenge.

To make enterprises understand the need for change is my responsibilities.

I learn this yesterday, as a Consultant – you MUST always think of the process from a business perspective, why is this process important?  Not the flow itself.

When the country manager asks me, why a proof of delivery?  Why is this important?

My typical answer is: Yes, it is important (because my boss said so).

Paradigm shift.

2 days of non-stop orientation and trainings, I am more convinced with my mind mapping capabilities.  I can convert text, into images, or graphical / imaginative pictures to ease digestion.

That has to give thanks to my first Sifu in Sales, he said:

“A Presentation slide is useful to present it to your client,

One day, you have no electricity; you have no laptop, no projector.

You need to deliver the same, using pen and paper / or white board,

To make your client understand, the most basic, most interesting thing to him. 

That’s success.”

Yes, I learn this, and I will continue to practice this.
And thanks to my mentor in sales, I will shift, to think from a business perspective from now on.

DJIA on Mon 11-June-2012

I couldn't access the forum and I am not sure whether it is blocked or forum is still having server error.

Its my last day in Taiwan and I am going to the airport after this post.  I wish all have a fruitful week ahead.
I had very good experience in Taiwan in the past 10 days, people are good, skillful and most importantly, I make new friends.

Last week on DJIA, market surged up and closed near high at 12554 pts, from the technical chart, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon the market to trade sideways bias up.

Current support is 12455, if DJIA can remain above current support then it will continue heading up to next resistance 12850 pts.
Failing which will come down to 12180 and 12050.

Bye bye Taiwan,
Ayumi

DJIA on Mon 4-June-2012

Our forum is down and so i will be sharing in my blog and twitter only..

market has confirmed the bearish sentiment with DJIA fallen below 12300.
last friday, djia shed 274.88 pts and close the week at 12118.57 pts.

with the bad economic data on NFP, unemployment rates, and euro zone turmoil, I reckon DJIA to continue trading down to target price 11850-11900.

From hourly chart, DJIA is trading near oversold region and therefore we expect a little bit up pull up to 1/3 of the day range (50 pts) before trading down again.

YM

Day Trade:
For YM on Broco chart, which is trading at 12038 now, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader expect market to move up to 12110, preferably coupled with overbought signal in 30 minutes chart, and/or a reversal candlestick pattern to initiate short trade.

SL 50 pts away, Target exit 150 pts.

EUR/USD on Mon 2012-06-04

a picture tell all....

I favour short, hope EMA50 resistance serve it well to help resist EUR/USD down a little bit more.

However, breaking above this line might lead to a short term technical rebound - 3 to 4 days may be, to return to 1.2850 - 1.2900 region.  For the bear to gather strength before it continue to drop further towards 1.2100 and 1.1900 (June 2010 low).

天气有点冷

Hello hi from Taiwan!

I have reached this beautiful potato shaped land yesterday.
I am tired, my luggage handle is torn (finally!) and it took me almost an hour, walking on the street, crossing some big junctions, to get to the place I m going to put up for the rest of the week.

It is a wonderful place.
I climbed 5 floors, with my backpack weight around 4-5kgs, and hand carry luggage weight 8.5kgs..

Yeah, I work out on a regular basis, and I managed.
^_<
Took a quick shower to remove all the sticky feelings... and went to the night market the first night I m here.

I have finished 6 hours of training from 12pm today.. and tomorrow is going to be the 2nd day.
I asked some friend for dinner tomorrow... this time, I am not sure whether I can manage to go for dinner after 12 hours training... my foot is aching, and what else tomorrow?

No matter how, it is a wonderful dance workshop, and I am looking forward to the remaining days.

GBP/USD on Mon 28 May 2012

GBP/USD

Market has shed more than 600 pips from 1.6305 since end of April 2012.

And every time a technical rebound .. last less than a day if not a day, and it is less than 1/3, it indicates that the market is strong bearish.

The Speed of Fall

And market has plunge all the way down towards the main support level 1.5600.

At first, I though market would just come down to 1.5930 before taking off to the next high, but each and everyday I am disappointed because market never find support, and it continues to fall.

The speed of fall, and the strong bear is too strong, coupled with European debt woes, market has generally put their focus on shorting the euros, and moving cash to US dollar, or other US denominated asset.

Bull gone for a month-long holiday

Whilst I wish to hunt for a long.. I am also doubtful of the bull, could the bull return? 

This is just my tiny little hope... I hope a technical digestion to happen.  And… at least, to pull up GBP/USD to 1/3 retracement level, 1.5850 region.

There’s no sign of the bull, as there are no signal reversal signal, no candlestick pattern that support my ‘hope’, and no stochastic level that can prove my viewpoint right.

So, I will do nothing, I will still sit, and wait.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.5667, another 60 pips to strong support level.

If I want to Trade

Yah, I can short, 17 pips above market open, and take profit at 100 pips below.  Which is what a student will do, trade with trend, not with a hope - at least for now, not yet.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 28th May 2012

Monday 28 May 2012

US Banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day, US Economic statistics may hold the focus of the holiday shortened week.

Will Greece leave the Euro Zone?  Questions has been popping up and there’s no one who can tell us Yes or No, and even though someone can tell, I am not sure whether the result follows (hehe ^_^), and I guess… most probably we might only get to know after the election on 17 June.  But market will certainly pay closer look when we are approaching to the day...

Last Friday DJIA fell 74.92 pts., or 0.6% to 12,454.83 pts. at the close.

Even though market were badly affected by European sovereign debt troubles, over last week, DJIA gained 0.7%.  And in most of the headlines, were the listing of Facebook, did u pay attention to it?

So, for the coming 4 days trading week, we believe US Economic statistics may hold the focus, and lets look at the major announcement calendar.

Major announcement (based on GMT+8 :: SG/MY Time)

[Tuesday ]

10:00pm CB Consumer confidence, consensus 69.6, previous 69.2. 

[Wednesday]

10:00pm Pending Home Sales;

[Thursday]

8:30pm Prelim GDP q/q, ADP Non Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims;

[Friday]

8:30pm NFP, Unemployment Rate;

10pm ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Since market is closed on Monday, my forecast is now based on YM on Broco Trader (MT4).

I reckon market to trade sideways with the top restricted to current resistance 12480 region.

And to test current support 12385 on Monday.  Since the major announcement only come into play on Tuesday night, I suggest traders to stay sideline and take some time to discover other US dollar denominated asset like Gold.

Chart:

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 21st May 2012

DJIA

DJIA closed at 12369.38 pts, down 73.11 pts or 0.59% last Friday.
Worst performing week, since last November - DJIA was down 3.5% for the week.

If we plot a downward channel, market has fallen towards the bottom support line, we forecast market to come up to the upper channel (resistance) 12430, before another leg down of 150 pts - 12280 or 12250.

DJIA 30 mins chart:

Nasdaq 100


Similar to Dow, there is only more DOWN..
Next support 2440 pts.

We expect a technical rebound as the market is oversold but resistance shall be capped at 2517-2520 pts.

Hunt for short near resistance 2517-2520, SL 2530 (1/3 retracement)
Target Exit:
TG1: 2480,
TG2: 2440.

GBP/USD Update

GBP/USD on 16-May-2012

Something interesting is happening, timing is almost there.

With the euro turmoil, Greece election, US JPMorgan chase 2 billion trading loss…

We see USD shooting up like crazy..

And so in line with non so good economic data release from the Great Britain side…

Market plunged and now trading at 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Check day chart below.

My method is easy.

Fibonacci retracement, 50%, look for a strong reversal signal, or previous group support.

Here I identified two levels…

Current 1.5930 (red triangle box)

Next support 1.5810 (purple line)

I hope market do not need to fall there (1.5810) but start to consolidate from today, trade sideways between 1.5900 – 1.6050 (150 pips) and breakup to next high next week.

I believe market will repeat the same cycle, and so, for the remaining of the week, I reckon market to consolidate, bias up.

I rather not enter any trade, but hope to long (now), or initiate Long next Monday (save some overnight interest, save myself from weekend news) and lets ride.

Will post if trade was done.

Gold Update

On this beautiful Wednesday evening, 16-May-2012

Take a look at Gold, what say you?

Gold Daily Chart

Group Support level: 1522

Psychological Support 1500

Next bottom: 1475

You think it is a good buy now?

I think not yet.

Bargain hunting to buy some precious gold, may be buying action should only come next week.

This week, lets continue shorting!

No signal from hourly chart, no signal from 30 mins chart, not overbought, neither oversold.

Daily Range 23 pts.

Can short when market returns 1540.

Target exit: 1522

Target exit: 1500

Will be greedy to buy when it fall below 1500 towards 1475.