DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 13 Aug 2012

Jobless claims unexpectedly slid by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended August 4, proving more jobs creations in market for the unemployed.

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 0.6 percent drop in the import-price index followed a 2.4 percent decline in June;
Costs excluding fuel decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest decline in two years.
Showing the weak global demand depressing prices.

U.S. export prices climbed 0.5 percent in July, after falling 1.7 percent the previous month. Prices of farm exports climbed 6.4 percent and those of non-farm goods decreased 0.3 percent.

Last Week

Market is generally HOPING for QE3 and pushed the index higher;
Market is bullish and as per last week forecast, the support has again moved up from 12950 to 13050 – a level showing group supports from Monday to Friday.

While market is moving closer up to target level 13350, the downward pressure on DJIA with recent corn prices (increase of raw material to food manufacturers) is looming.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, I maintain DJIA target at 13350 pts.
Daily Chart: Bullish, average day range is diminishing. Trading volume has reduced, and lower than average daily volume.

Intraday chart: potential up towards 13350 but downward pressure is developing with the resistance at 13250 pts. in line with overbought signal.

We reckon market to suffer a little bit of correction on Monday, from 13200 to 13150 pts. and then trading sideways bias up towards target.

Intraday trading preference: long near 13150, close EOD or near 13300-13350.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has posted another strong gains, and group support level moves up to 2706 and our target remains at 2748 – 2750 pts.

Hunt for long at daily initial shadow near 2718 pts., close EOD or target level 2748.

Cheers
Ayumi