My niece b'day today!
And today is last week before weekend's performance.
Today after my solo practice (ya... Dance from 7pm for 3 hours), I receive a yummy yummy reward!
^^
So blessed~
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Monday, October 3, 2011
Rehearsal~ Donut & Cookies
Ayumi is very happy today cuz it is a special day!
My niece b'day today!
And today is last week before weekend's performance.
Today after my solo practice (ya... Dance from 7pm for 3 hours), I receive a yummy yummy reward!
^^
So blessed~
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
My niece b'day today!
And today is last week before weekend's performance.
Today after my solo practice (ya... Dance from 7pm for 3 hours), I receive a yummy yummy reward!
^^
So blessed~
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Its a new month, new day, and we wish everyone pocket the biggest gain in this long waited month!!!!
DJIA
Last week on DJIA, we observed a technical bounce when it touches the low of 10642.
DJIA started off the week with a strong momentum returned to 11050, and in line with the "operation twist" announcement -- DJIA rallied to 4/5 Fibonacci Retracement Level, marked the highest point of the week at 11373 and formed a downward channel.
From technical chart, DJIA will continue to face resistance at 11150 - 11080, and support at 10600.
Once DJIA break below previous week low of 10775, it will return to 10600 and next target 10450.
Otherwise, if --- any "operation twist", or any "rescue" announcement were made, then market will be boosted --- we will see the short-lived rally back to 11400, but, I do not think this is going to happen.
The Long-Term Bear market is "inevitable" - with high jobless rate (9.1%), bad market, bad consumer confidence... the bear shall lead us back to 9600 mark :)
Market is going to be volatile, with the trading range increasing day-by-day. Current range – 300 points. Traders are advised to reduce exposure on stocks, and short the indices.
Preferred level to short DJIA for this week: 11080.
YM resistance 10950 (trading at 10830 now), with a strong bear candle last Friday, aggressive traders can short at initial shadow 10900, SL 11900, TG 10600.
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100 is sensitive and more volatile than DJIA; it has rallied 4/5, but also continues to drive south and already traded back to previous week low, so similarly, we are also having a long term bearish view in this market.
Current support 2140 (weak), next target (down) 2085, ultimately, Nasdaq 100 will return to the previous strong support 2035 (August 2011 low).
Aggressive Traders can short at initial shadow, NQ last traded at 2126, aggressive short 2140-2147, SL 20 points, TG 2115, TG2 2085.
DJIALast week on DJIA, we observed a technical bounce when it touches the low of 10642.
DJIA started off the week with a strong momentum returned to 11050, and in line with the "operation twist" announcement -- DJIA rallied to 4/5 Fibonacci Retracement Level, marked the highest point of the week at 11373 and formed a downward channel.
From technical chart, DJIA will continue to face resistance at 11150 - 11080, and support at 10600.
Once DJIA break below previous week low of 10775, it will return to 10600 and next target 10450.
Otherwise, if --- any "operation twist", or any "rescue" announcement were made, then market will be boosted --- we will see the short-lived rally back to 11400, but, I do not think this is going to happen.
The Long-Term Bear market is "inevitable" - with high jobless rate (9.1%), bad market, bad consumer confidence... the bear shall lead us back to 9600 mark :)
Market is going to be volatile, with the trading range increasing day-by-day. Current range – 300 points. Traders are advised to reduce exposure on stocks, and short the indices.
Preferred level to short DJIA for this week: 11080.
YM resistance 10950 (trading at 10830 now), with a strong bear candle last Friday, aggressive traders can short at initial shadow 10900, SL 11900, TG 10600.
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100 is sensitive and more volatile than DJIA; it has rallied 4/5, but also continues to drive south and already traded back to previous week low, so similarly, we are also having a long term bearish view in this market.
Current support 2140 (weak), next target (down) 2085, ultimately, Nasdaq 100 will return to the previous strong support 2035 (August 2011 low).
Aggressive Traders can short at initial shadow, NQ last traded at 2126, aggressive short 2140-2147, SL 20 points, TG 2115, TG2 2085.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
EUR/USD on 27-Sep-2011
EUR/USD
Yesterday on EUR/USD, another small bodied candle formed, instead of forming a white candle, EUR/USD formed a small bodied black candle.
My entry to long was triggered SL when EUR/USD break below 1.3400, lowest 1.3360.
and then "fry" to close at 1.3513.
Today will continue to trade for Long, entry at initial shadow 1.3457 SL 1.3400 (again), TG 1.3700 (again).
GBP/USD
Market has been moving up but didn't retrace.
Yesterday open at 1.5478, lowest 1.5430 and then moving up and close at 1.5546, highest of the day is 1.5569.
Cannot enter with initial shadow, although lowest is 1.5430, but my order is not filled.
Try again today to enter long at 1.5500 SL 1.5453 TG 1.5640 - 680.
Next resistance 1.5680 as marked on the chart.
Yesterday on EUR/USD, another small bodied candle formed, instead of forming a white candle, EUR/USD formed a small bodied black candle.
My entry to long was triggered SL when EUR/USD break below 1.3400, lowest 1.3360.
and then "fry" to close at 1.3513.
Today will continue to trade for Long, entry at initial shadow 1.3457 SL 1.3400 (again), TG 1.3700 (again).
GBP/USD
Market has been moving up but didn't retrace.
Yesterday open at 1.5478, lowest 1.5430 and then moving up and close at 1.5546, highest of the day is 1.5569.
Cannot enter with initial shadow, although lowest is 1.5430, but my order is not filled.
Try again today to enter long at 1.5500 SL 1.5453 TG 1.5640 - 680.
Next resistance 1.5680 as marked on the chart.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
EUR/USD
Daily chart:
two tiny little candle signals two soldiers.
Weekend's meeting and ECB action shall lift EUR/USD for another 2-3 days, expect today to be a bullish candle.
Weekly charts suggest EUR/USD prone to move down, downward potential 1.3300 and strong support 1.3100.
Intraday:
Long with initial shadow 1.3450 SL 1.3400 TG1: 1.3650.
I also hunt for short opportunity for the melt, observe for reversal candlestick pattern at 1.3700 region.
GBP/USD
Check 4 hour chart you will see GBP/USD moving down slow and steady over last 4 weeks when it breaks below EMA50.
Knowing my trading style, I am not able to enter short if the market never pull up / retrace. :(
Based on last Friday's candlestick pattern, I reckon market to form a white candle today, while keeping below 1.5600.
Next resistance 1.5600.
Today's intraday trading:
Long GBP/USD 1.5430 SL 1.5390 TG 1.5600 or close by EOD.
Hunt for short upon retracement, favour reversal candlestick pattern to confirm.
Daily chart:
two tiny little candle signals two soldiers.
Weekend's meeting and ECB action shall lift EUR/USD for another 2-3 days, expect today to be a bullish candle.
Weekly charts suggest EUR/USD prone to move down, downward potential 1.3300 and strong support 1.3100.
Intraday:
Long with initial shadow 1.3450 SL 1.3400 TG1: 1.3650.
I also hunt for short opportunity for the melt, observe for reversal candlestick pattern at 1.3700 region.
GBP/USD
Check 4 hour chart you will see GBP/USD moving down slow and steady over last 4 weeks when it breaks below EMA50.
Knowing my trading style, I am not able to enter short if the market never pull up / retrace. :(
Based on last Friday's candlestick pattern, I reckon market to form a white candle today, while keeping below 1.5600.
Next resistance 1.5600.
Today's intraday trading:
Long GBP/USD 1.5430 SL 1.5390 TG 1.5600 or close by EOD.
Hunt for short upon retracement, favour reversal candlestick pattern to confirm.
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
U.S. stocks fell this week, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the biggest loss since 2008, as the Federal Reserve said risks to the economy have increased and concern grew that policy makers will fail to spur growth.
The S&P 500 fell 2.9 percent on (Wed) Sept. 21 and 3.2 percent the next day (Thu) after the Fed said it will replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries to spur growth.It is not over, and the likelihood of US recession has clearly risen.
Technical Chart, Weekly:
I am expecting the melt down to 9500 region upon breakout to the downside.
Upside resistance 11720 will not be re-visited again and the breakout is happening SOON.
Daily Chart:
The European Central Bank may step up efforts to ease financial-market tensions, including offering banks 12-month loans, Governing Council members said. About $3.5 trillion was erased from global equity values this week before yesterday.From a higher time frame, market has reached 2L, consolidation is about to finish with DJIA trading near to its key support (August-2011 low), breaking below this low will target 9700 for October 2011.
With ECB effort, and weekend's meeting, I am expecting a rebound to 10850- max 10915 region to happen on DJIA. YM resistance 10800.
Hunt for short at this level and let's ride the late south train together.
Related News: http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LRZTSY07SXKX01-6K828SC6SK85B3V3BCBOS4M4F1
Nasdaq 100
Market is mercy-less for the opposite traders.
Imagine the impact of how fundamentals move our trading account, from 1 end, to another end.
The ECB announcement has lifted Nasdaq 100 from 2135 region and formed a bullish reversal pattern on daily chart. Sames goes to NQ.
I expect market to pull up at least 50% for Nasdaq 100, return to 2260 region.
Short Term Trading: Bullish
Monday, long at initial shadow (-20 index points), eg. Long NQ support at 2175 SL last friday low or 2135 target 2260, or closed by end of day.
Position Trading: Bearish
Rub our eyes, clean up our spectacles and observe for reversal candlestick pattern.
Effective Trading
"Side Effects" of our World GTI
During the recent launch of our World GTI (Gold Trading Indicator), I start to find some of my team members watching the market more effectively than before.
D said now he has a mini-DAR Wong trading 24 hours for his account, and D said he is going to learn and apply the trading methodology via this 24 hour opportunities.
He is sensitive to market movement nowadays, when the market react to political news (yeah, there are many lately, which affects FX as well as Commodities), D were expecting some trades to be done by the trading robot.
We have spent weeks to encourage him watching the market before World GTI, but he always always very busy. And now, there's no need to encourage him, he is motivated 24 hours, to watch market effectively hahahaa
So now I have different sets of problems lo~~~
Related: www.World-GTI.com
Market Visualization vs Market Passion
Although I am trading on Robot for Gold, I am trading manual on Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and YM, as usual.
Recent commitment has reduced my time for blogging, but not for market visualisation.
Although I may not have the luxury to watch market from my laptop, I always on the move, I still can view from my mobile.
Remembered last week's meeting, mentor says about the market passion.
New traders were generally passionate, they love the market and willing to spend hours and hours sitting in front of the screen, very passionate and spend good market visualisation. Compare to 2 months ago, I am spending less time watching the markets, less time on charts, less time reading the CNBC, CNN, Dow Jones newswires... because I am doing it less, I guess I am getting old.
September is coming to an end, and here comes my October events, parties, shows, launching, I need better time management and I need better sleep. Yeah, I sleep with lights on, usually touch the bed and go direct to dreaming ...
When the quarter finally ends, I wish to recover more of my time to watch market again, then shall see my blog posts increase, more coverage on trades done, FX and commodities.
During the recent launch of our World GTI (Gold Trading Indicator), I start to find some of my team members watching the market more effectively than before.
D said now he has a mini-DAR Wong trading 24 hours for his account, and D said he is going to learn and apply the trading methodology via this 24 hour opportunities.
He is sensitive to market movement nowadays, when the market react to political news (yeah, there are many lately, which affects FX as well as Commodities), D were expecting some trades to be done by the trading robot.
We have spent weeks to encourage him watching the market before World GTI, but he always always very busy. And now, there's no need to encourage him, he is motivated 24 hours, to watch market effectively hahahaa
So now I have different sets of problems lo~~~
Related: www.World-GTI.com
Market Visualization vs Market Passion
Although I am trading on Robot for Gold, I am trading manual on Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and YM, as usual.
Recent commitment has reduced my time for blogging, but not for market visualisation.
Although I may not have the luxury to watch market from my laptop, I always on the move, I still can view from my mobile.
Remembered last week's meeting, mentor says about the market passion.
New traders were generally passionate, they love the market and willing to spend hours and hours sitting in front of the screen, very passionate and spend good market visualisation. Compare to 2 months ago, I am spending less time watching the markets, less time on charts, less time reading the CNBC, CNN, Dow Jones newswires... because I am doing it less, I guess I am getting old.
September is coming to an end, and here comes my October events, parties, shows, launching, I need better time management and I need better sleep. Yeah, I sleep with lights on, usually touch the bed and go direct to dreaming ...
When the quarter finally ends, I wish to recover more of my time to watch market again, then shall see my blog posts increase, more coverage on trades done, FX and commodities.
Monday, September 19, 2011
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Good day everyone
DJIA
Like Sarah mentioned on Thursday's forecast, DJIA is trading in range and prone to test R1 11500 region, and if market manage to break above 11500, we are going to see R2 11700 level soon.
This happen due to Euro Zone debt crisis that is worsening, how many times are we are hearing it? Monies are moving back into US equity market as safe heaven.
Market has been rising for the past 5 days (1 whole week), last Friday, the Dow finished within 25 points of its high for the day and closed the week up 4.7 percent.
During the weekend we read political pressures on US – White house tax plans like “Buffet Tax” on millionaires, measures to “rescue” Euro-zone debt crisis, and we foresee the coming trading days will be trading based on political issues rather than economic events.
Technical Forecast
Market is prone to trading down, technically after rising for continuous 4-5 days, market is prone to a 1/3 correction. If market reaches higher above 11550, then we shall see the Dow trading towards R2 11700; if market were resisted at current high without moving higher, then we shall see a retracement back to 11350 – 11300 soon, once market traded below 11300, we expect market to test S2 11180.
New traders are advised to stay out and observe how market reflects to news.
NASDAQ 100
Similar to Dow, we forecast a correction to happen after 5 days winning streak, market prone to be supported at S1 2250 – 2240. Strong Support S2 2210.
Once market recovered from the correction, we may see NASDAQ 100 trading back to 2315 and next target 2370.
DJIA
Like Sarah mentioned on Thursday's forecast, DJIA is trading in range and prone to test R1 11500 region, and if market manage to break above 11500, we are going to see R2 11700 level soon.
This happen due to Euro Zone debt crisis that is worsening, how many times are we are hearing it? Monies are moving back into US equity market as safe heaven.
Market has been rising for the past 5 days (1 whole week), last Friday, the Dow finished within 25 points of its high for the day and closed the week up 4.7 percent.
During the weekend we read political pressures on US – White house tax plans like “Buffet Tax” on millionaires, measures to “rescue” Euro-zone debt crisis, and we foresee the coming trading days will be trading based on political issues rather than economic events.
Technical Forecast
Market is prone to trading down, technically after rising for continuous 4-5 days, market is prone to a 1/3 correction. If market reaches higher above 11550, then we shall see the Dow trading towards R2 11700; if market were resisted at current high without moving higher, then we shall see a retracement back to 11350 – 11300 soon, once market traded below 11300, we expect market to test S2 11180.
New traders are advised to stay out and observe how market reflects to news.
NASDAQ 100
Similar to Dow, we forecast a correction to happen after 5 days winning streak, market prone to be supported at S1 2250 – 2240. Strong Support S2 2210.
Once market recovered from the correction, we may see NASDAQ 100 trading back to 2315 and next target 2370.
Monday, September 12, 2011
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Technically and fundamentally the Wall Street has entered into a worrying state, commodities and stocks plunge on last Friday after Greek debt emerged. President Obama announced the next stimulus package.
After two years of fighting to content the debt issues, there are rumors and news relating to giving up on Greece, German banks were the biggest holders of Greek government bonds at the end of 2010 with $22.7 billion, Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece.
YM
YM is testing the double bottom support,
Monday may have a slight rebound to 11100, hunt for short and
And target for the week @ 10570.
In case market rally above 11100, next strong resistance 11300.
DJIA
For advanced associates: Trapezium in play and similar pattern happened.
We learned many market entry from Sifu DAR Wong during advanced workshop, example like Trapezium for Daily entry, Butterfly pattern for intraday entry, and Divergence, etc. etc...
So some of us missed the last chance to short when market retrace to Fibo Retracement 50% last week,
Next action is to SHORT upon market retracement, but we reckon there will be less than 1/3 retracement.
Few entry method can consider today:
Stochastic is low, can look for stochastic butterfly pattern during intraday, when it completes - hunt for short.
Aggressive Trader can consider shorting at Initial Shadow around 40 points from opening; ATR 255 points.
1/3 Fibo Retracement / Resistance for today at 11090 - 11170 observe for shorting opportunity here.
Temporary Support for today @ 10950 double bottoms, but it is weak.
Next support @ 10805.
NASDAQ 100
Nasdaq 100 chart seems weak, but not as weak as DJIA; it is trading in a Big Flag pattern and already testing the bottom for 3rd time last week.
Expect support @ 2140 to break (NQ chart 2130) today or Tuesday. Breaching below 2110, Next target we are looking at least 2082.
Fundamental News for Greece and Germany:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/germany-readies-surrender-in-fight-to-save-greece-euro-credit.html
After two years of fighting to content the debt issues, there are rumors and news relating to giving up on Greece, German banks were the biggest holders of Greek government bonds at the end of 2010 with $22.7 billion, Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece.
YM
YM is testing the double bottom support,
Monday may have a slight rebound to 11100, hunt for short and
And target for the week @ 10570.
In case market rally above 11100, next strong resistance 11300.
DJIA
For advanced associates: Trapezium in play and similar pattern happened.
We learned many market entry from Sifu DAR Wong during advanced workshop, example like Trapezium for Daily entry, Butterfly pattern for intraday entry, and Divergence, etc. etc...
So some of us missed the last chance to short when market retrace to Fibo Retracement 50% last week,
Next action is to SHORT upon market retracement, but we reckon there will be less than 1/3 retracement.
Few entry method can consider today:
Stochastic is low, can look for stochastic butterfly pattern during intraday, when it completes - hunt for short.
Aggressive Trader can consider shorting at Initial Shadow around 40 points from opening; ATR 255 points.
1/3 Fibo Retracement / Resistance for today at 11090 - 11170 observe for shorting opportunity here.
Temporary Support for today @ 10950 double bottoms, but it is weak.
Next support @ 10805.
NASDAQ 100
Nasdaq 100 chart seems weak, but not as weak as DJIA; it is trading in a Big Flag pattern and already testing the bottom for 3rd time last week.
Expect support @ 2140 to break (NQ chart 2130) today or Tuesday. Breaching below 2110, Next target we are looking at least 2082.
Fundamental News for Greece and Germany:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/germany-readies-surrender-in-fight-to-save-greece-euro-credit.html
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Beginners' luck?
Remember when we first started on trading, we started with technical analysis, we don't know what the fundamental is, don't know what Quantitative Easing is, don't know why people call Gold a save heaven investment, don't know what is "carry trade", we don't know many things...
We only have some technical analysis terms, drawing lines here and there, we only do what we know, and we make sure we do it.
We made progress, and within a month we make good progress, how to define "Good progress" -- to the beginners, and generally, good progress means "Profit". We keep talking to ourselves that "we are new", "market is risky", "we need to be careful"...
Time pass, we continue making progress, and 6 months has passed.
Our account doubled, tripled, or quadrupled...
We started looking into different type of things, technical, fundamental, psychological...
We thought by doing more things, we shall make better money, we are expecting more.
So, is that important?
That is important for sure.
Is that effective?
I remembered Sifu DAR Wong talked about effective trading during the last Live Trading session.
Only trade with the setup,
When there's a setup, we trade;
When there's none, we do not trade;
We cannot create setup.
Setup can be daily initial shadow; can be anything like the EMA crossings, e.g. fast line crossing the slow line.
But a complete setup shall consist of following:
Money Management -- contract size / position sizing
Trade Setup -- Entry, Stop Loss and Criteria to move SL, Exit (Price Exit, and/or Time Exit).
Winning Trade, Losing Trade, Profitable Trade, Good Trade, shall not change our mind, we aim for consistency and we aim to learn a life skill. Result will come as long as we focus on the process, always monitor the cause and effect, be effective, and do what we know best!
We only have some technical analysis terms, drawing lines here and there, we only do what we know, and we make sure we do it.
We made progress, and within a month we make good progress, how to define "Good progress" -- to the beginners, and generally, good progress means "Profit". We keep talking to ourselves that "we are new", "market is risky", "we need to be careful"...
Time pass, we continue making progress, and 6 months has passed.
Our account doubled, tripled, or quadrupled...
We started looking into different type of things, technical, fundamental, psychological...
We thought by doing more things, we shall make better money, we are expecting more.
So, is that important?
That is important for sure.
Is that effective?
I remembered Sifu DAR Wong talked about effective trading during the last Live Trading session.
Only trade with the setup,
When there's a setup, we trade;
When there's none, we do not trade;
We cannot create setup.
Setup can be daily initial shadow; can be anything like the EMA crossings, e.g. fast line crossing the slow line.
But a complete setup shall consist of following:
Money Management -- contract size / position sizing
Trade Setup -- Entry, Stop Loss and Criteria to move SL, Exit (Price Exit, and/or Time Exit).
If the losses have put you off, take time to rest, do something else that you enjoy.
Come back later, and we are always here.
Winning Trade, Losing Trade, Profitable Trade, Good Trade, shall not change our mind, we aim for consistency and we aim to learn a life skill. Result will come as long as we focus on the process, always monitor the cause and effect, be effective, and do what we know best!
Thursday, September 8, 2011
CL on 8-Sep-2011
Wohoooo.... CL after touching 83.20 channel bottom, did a little congestion and bounced up above 90.00 region, last night it went up to highest 90.48.
It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...
Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.
Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).
Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.
2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?
Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...
From 1 Hour Chart...
Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.
I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).
Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.
Will post my trade if any were done.
Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
It is a very bullish week for CL and let's look at Weekly Chart...
Crude oil climbed the most in four weeks in New York as a weather system threatened to reduce U.S. production from the Gulf of Mexico.
Last week Manufacturing PMI for the month of August-2011 is above market forecast (forecast 48.7, actual 50.6, prev 50.9), this week ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also above market forecast (forecast 51.2, actual 53.3, prev 52.7).
Storm hits...
Probably curbed stockpiles... Supply decline.
2nd-ly, Oil rose on speculation on the next plan to boost the economy... will President Barack Obama announce plans for more than $300 billion in measures to boost the economy?
Check from 4 Hour chart, Oil has been rising for the week...
From 1 Hour Chart...
Past few days of rally on CL almost hit 4L based on my trading method without any sign of retracement except this morning.
I suspect a 1/3 retracement to happen today, CL to drop to 88.20 - 88.80 levels, before making a marginal top above 92.00 region, target 92.40, this price range is also the channel top (green zone in the above charts).
Trade plan is to Long after the retracement complete around 88.20-88.50, target exit 92.40.
Will post my trade if any were done.
Manufacturing at a Glance: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?navItemNumber=12942
Monday, September 5, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has dropped for 3 days to 1.6129 last Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on Friday.
Coming week, forecast short term rebound to happen, GBP/USD trading up to resistance 1.6300.
However, based on Friday price action, reckon market to continue trading in range with a potential to trade lower back to 1.6130 region. I prefer to long at this support and aim for 1.6300 target exit, up to 1.6450 strong resistance.
EUR/USD
Normally I have similar view on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
But... I think the drop has not finished yet on EUR/USD. I haven't seen reversal pattern on EUR/USD, so I can only forecast the market to continue trading lower until EMA200 (Daily) 1.4050 region.
Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
4 hour chart: free falling market - bearish
Monday:
EUR/USD is trading at 1.4200 level, prefer to pick short at 1.4240 region, aim to exit 1.4050.
Mid Week:
After falling for consistent 5 days, reckon the market to rebound upon touching EMA200 (Daily), if that happen with a reversal candlestick pattern, EUR/USD will qualify for a Long entry with the target at 50% Fibonacci Retracement around 1.4350.
GBP/USD has dropped for 3 days to 1.6129 last Thursday and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on Friday.
Coming week, forecast short term rebound to happen, GBP/USD trading up to resistance 1.6300.
However, based on Friday price action, reckon market to continue trading in range with a potential to trade lower back to 1.6130 region. I prefer to long at this support and aim for 1.6300 target exit, up to 1.6450 strong resistance.
EUR/USD
Normally I have similar view on GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
But... I think the drop has not finished yet on EUR/USD. I haven't seen reversal pattern on EUR/USD, so I can only forecast the market to continue trading lower until EMA200 (Daily) 1.4050 region.
Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
4 hour chart: free falling market - bearish
Monday:
EUR/USD is trading at 1.4200 level, prefer to pick short at 1.4240 region, aim to exit 1.4050.
Mid Week:
After falling for consistent 5 days, reckon the market to rebound upon touching EMA200 (Daily), if that happen with a reversal candlestick pattern, EUR/USD will qualify for a Long entry with the target at 50% Fibonacci Retracement around 1.4350.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Technical Chart:
Touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, and market showing congestion.
on DJIA chart, market has just created a EMA4 & EMA20 cross which signify bearish momentum.
Forecast market to continue trading down to the channel bottom, support at 11100 level.
For the week, reckon a market rebound upon touching support 11100, the rebound shall bring market back to EMA50 (4H) or 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Resistance 11370
Strong Resistance 11520 (highest on last Friday)
Prefer to:
Long at 11100 levels.
Short around 11400-500 levels.
DJIA
Technical Chart:
Check DJIA30 Daily Chart, we observed a EMA4 and EMA20 cross upon Friday's correction.
Like what Sarah mentioned on her Thursday forecast, observe for reversal sign to short near 11800, however, market only managed to climb up to 11720, but it has fulfilled 1/2 Fibonacci Retracement and plunge for two days.
Those who had missed the opportunity to short still can hunt for retracement to short.
For PW Traders, look into intraday chart (1H and 30M) we can see market approaching 3L, if the fundamental sentiment is bad, we reckon market to continue trading down to 11050 levels before a significant rebound can happen.
Aggressive Trader can aim to short at 11350 levels, SL 11400, TG 11100.
Long is not recommended, only aim to trade long at channel bottom - during mid week near 11050 with proper risk management (50 pts) and aim for a short term rebound to 11400.
Nasdaq 100
It is a volatile week for Nasdaq 100. From technical chart, Nasdaq 100 is resisted below EMA200 (Daily), it comes with a similar pattern with Dow on intraday (30M and 1H) chart.
Expect market to continue trading down on Monday to hit 3L around 2125 levels.
However, if market fundamental is bad, market may directly plunge to previous strong support 2082 region.
Short when market pull up to 2185 level, target exit 2125.
Back!
The past week was filled with many public holidays, my Malay friends were celebrating Hari Raya (New Year) and it is Malaysian National Day on 31st August 2011.
So I also declared a holiday for myself, didn't trade but still watch the market.
First time I visit a Malay friend's house and tried Rendang, a lot of tasty home-cooked Malay food, home-made cookies, I feel very happy to go to her house, play with her lazy cat and feel very warm with her hospitality.
Not only that, we have just launched our World Gold Trading Indicator (GTI) to the public and unexpectedly the boardroom is full, and some guest have to stand and squeeze into the room, thanks to the support!!
www.World-GTI.com
Alright, so we are back, and lets look forward to what's gonna happen next week on Dow, GBP, and Gold.
Stay tuned...
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
DJIA on 31-Aug-2011 (Wed)
Up up market going towards 11680 now.
lets look at YM and DJIA30 chart...
YM Daily Chart:
YM 4 Hour Chart:
DJIA30 Daily Chart:
YM has touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, expect the market to do a little congestion, while DJIA shall hit 11680 tonight, crossing above 11680, DJIA may test my target 11800-850 soon.
Long Long, capture the last bullish breath before the bear comes in.
lets look at YM and DJIA30 chart...
YM Daily Chart:
YM 4 Hour Chart:
DJIA30 Daily Chart:
YM has touched EMA200 lines on Daily Chart, expect the market to do a little congestion, while DJIA shall hit 11680 tonight, crossing above 11680, DJIA may test my target 11800-850 soon.
Long Long, capture the last bullish breath before the bear comes in.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
GBP/USD
From Daily Chart, bias up toward 1.6700 and target price 1.6800.
From Intraday Chart - 4 Hour: Neutral view.
If EMA50 (4H) rejection happens, then GBP/USD might go down to 1.6200 strong support.
Otherwise, ema50 turn support and going back to 1.6500 levels.
Long or Short at strong support & resistance levels respectively.
EUR/USD
Weekly candle: bullish.
Last Friday, EUR/USD has recovered strongly and close at 1.4499. Daily chart shows that 1.4500 is a tough resistance but can be taken out anytime soon within this week.
Next strong resistance / target for EUR/USD 1.4700.
Support 1.4420
Strong support 1.4325 (prev week low, pincer bottom)
If our assumption is right, then to enter long at 1.4420 = EMA50 (4H)
Otherwise, the recovery above 1.4500 failed, and EUR/USD may continue to trade down to next Strong support 1.4325.
From Daily Chart, bias up toward 1.6700 and target price 1.6800.
From Intraday Chart - 4 Hour: Neutral view.
If EMA50 (4H) rejection happens, then GBP/USD might go down to 1.6200 strong support.
Otherwise, ema50 turn support and going back to 1.6500 levels.
Long or Short at strong support & resistance levels respectively.
EUR/USD
Weekly candle: bullish.
Last Friday, EUR/USD has recovered strongly and close at 1.4499. Daily chart shows that 1.4500 is a tough resistance but can be taken out anytime soon within this week.
Next strong resistance / target for EUR/USD 1.4700.
Support 1.4420
Strong support 1.4325 (prev week low, pincer bottom)
If our assumption is right, then to enter long at 1.4420 = EMA50 (4H)
Otherwise, the recovery above 1.4500 failed, and EUR/USD may continue to trade down to next Strong support 1.4325.
Monday, August 29, 2011
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Hurricane Irene battered New York with heavy winds and driving rain on Sunday, knocking out power for some and flooding some of lower Manhattan's deserted streets, including in the Wall Street district.
The NYSE and broader U.S. marketplace are mostly automated, running quietly out of powerful data centers in New Jersey and elsewhere. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a few blocks from the NYSE, also plans at this time to open on Monday. Electronic trading is expected to function normally on Monday. But without full staffing, volume will take a hit.
DJIA
DJIA recovered on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ensured more tools to stimulate economy, Wall Street has the first rising week after 4 weeks of losses.
From the technical chart, DJIA has traded to EMA50 line at the 4 Hour chart, our view is neutral.
DJIA may have seen the 1/3 retracement and need to consolidate between the flag 11550 – 10600.
I forecast DJIA to trade in range this week between 11550 – 10950 (600 points) bias up.
For those who have been following our thread, we are looking for a potential trapezium to form which might happen in September. I prefer DJIA to protrude above 11550 and recovered to 11800 = EMA200 lines in Daily Chart = 50% Fibonacci Retracement, had a big hit, and resume the grand cycle. Beware that the development shall be in line with the US monetary policy, and be patient.
Therefore, for the week’s trade plan, aggressive trader can pick long at support 10950 level. Intraday Short: aim to short if EMA50 (4H) shows rejection.
Strong Resistance 11800
Resistance 11550
Support 10950
Strong Support 10600
NASDAQ 100
Forecast market to trade in consolidation between 2220 – 2085, bias up. Nasdaq 100 may have a quiet trading week, if EMA50 (4H) shows rejection, short and exit at support 2085. However, for the week, aim for long opportunity near support 2085 level and target exit 2215.
We forecast Nasdaq 100 to go strong until 2320 level slowly, steadily in 2 weeks’ time.
Strong Resistance 2320
Resistance 2220
Support 2085
Strong Support 2035
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Competition..
At my "About" page...
I went to a church event this morning, alright, I am not a religious person, not a Christian, so it is the first time I stepped into a church.
It took 10 years for this church to grow, from a cell of 30 people, to a very big hall now... with the contribution from the church member...
And the pastor mentioned something about Stretch. This is the great lesson that I have learned today.
I learn to Stretch.
I went to a competition yesterday, with more than 80 contestants, to compete 1st round, quarter final, then semifinal, and night event - Final.
I am out from first round, I am disappointed, and I did not know why I lose... deep in my heart I always feel that I am a champion... I dance like I am going to be chosen... so I still do not know why I lose, and I lose to some gals with so little technique... with a body figure so out... sorry to be blunt but this is what I feel!
And today I didn't look into the PC, I went to shopping complex, and there's a stage, and people are performing.
I watched for few minutes, and I feel like walking away.
But J said something that made me feel interested.
"They should have more activities like such, to bring belly dancing closer to the public."
Don't care they are dancing like the Belly Dance Super Star, or they dance normal, but, they have a type of energy, charisma, to pull the crowd.
They crowd do not know what is the Belly Dance technique about!!!!
May be we always focus on the wrong thing...
Why we need the best costume? We need to be seen.
It is like we need a computer, an internet connection, a server, a news feed that's good, reliable and timely, these are the basic tools.
These are all EXPENSES.
It doesn't guarantee profit.
Why technique?
This is what we need, to dance.
Why technical analysis, this is how we learn... this is how we read the market.
Why expression? Why smile? Why the inner feeling?
This is the way we express ourselves, this is natural, a natural dancer, shall have the energy flow, from inside out.
It is like Trading Psychology. Our habit, we control our losses, we monitor our greed and fear, and we are cool, and we are steady.
Why showmanship?
Why choreography?
We planned for the flow and movement of the whole song. We present it in such a way that the audience can understand us, we dance, to express our feeling, we dance in line with the melody, our blood is also dancing, but we need to plan them out, when is the prelude, when to travel fast, when to stand still, and when to leap high, and plan the CHORUS!
It sounds like a trading plan, when to enter, when to observe, and when to act aggressively!
Without a plan, failed to plan = plan to fail.
So to ensure success, we cannot only focus ONE thing... but, continue to bring ourselves to higher standard, from all aspects.
Today my great lesson from the competition, from the stage performance, from the church event, from J's comment, what I learned from trading, what I learned from dancing, and the Pastor's story "Stretch".
I learn to Stretch!
Stretch and be a better me. Although i do not know why i didn’t make it... But I know I still have space to improve.
Not enough space? Create one!
I'll come again tomorrow, smile bigger, stretch further!
I will continue to work harder; I will achieve all wealth and success in my life.
I want to be a successful and profitable trader, at my Maximum Capacity.
I aim to spend time with family, friends, and Dance!
I will improve my setups consistency and profit unlimitedly from the market.
I hope all like what I share, I hope all Benefit from my Success!
Related: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/p/about.html
Dance Paw
I blog about life purpose, objectives, passion and dreams.Although this post is not about trading... but I really need a place to express myself, my passion, and dreams.
I blog about success and perseverance.
I went to a church event this morning, alright, I am not a religious person, not a Christian, so it is the first time I stepped into a church.
It took 10 years for this church to grow, from a cell of 30 people, to a very big hall now... with the contribution from the church member...
And the pastor mentioned something about Stretch. This is the great lesson that I have learned today.
I learn to Stretch.
I went to a competition yesterday, with more than 80 contestants, to compete 1st round, quarter final, then semifinal, and night event - Final.
I am out from first round, I am disappointed, and I did not know why I lose... deep in my heart I always feel that I am a champion... I dance like I am going to be chosen... so I still do not know why I lose, and I lose to some gals with so little technique... with a body figure so out... sorry to be blunt but this is what I feel!
And today I didn't look into the PC, I went to shopping complex, and there's a stage, and people are performing.
I watched for few minutes, and I feel like walking away.
But J said something that made me feel interested.
"They should have more activities like such, to bring belly dancing closer to the public."
Don't care they are dancing like the Belly Dance Super Star, or they dance normal, but, they have a type of energy, charisma, to pull the crowd.
They crowd do not know what is the Belly Dance technique about!!!!
May be we always focus on the wrong thing...
Why we need the best costume? We need to be seen.
It is like we need a computer, an internet connection, a server, a news feed that's good, reliable and timely, these are the basic tools.
These are all EXPENSES.
It doesn't guarantee profit.
Why technique?
This is what we need, to dance.
Why technical analysis, this is how we learn... this is how we read the market.
Why expression? Why smile? Why the inner feeling?
This is the way we express ourselves, this is natural, a natural dancer, shall have the energy flow, from inside out.
It is like Trading Psychology. Our habit, we control our losses, we monitor our greed and fear, and we are cool, and we are steady.
Why showmanship?
Why choreography?
We planned for the flow and movement of the whole song. We present it in such a way that the audience can understand us, we dance, to express our feeling, we dance in line with the melody, our blood is also dancing, but we need to plan them out, when is the prelude, when to travel fast, when to stand still, and when to leap high, and plan the CHORUS!
It sounds like a trading plan, when to enter, when to observe, and when to act aggressively!
Without a plan, failed to plan = plan to fail.
So to ensure success, we cannot only focus ONE thing... but, continue to bring ourselves to higher standard, from all aspects.
Today my great lesson from the competition, from the stage performance, from the church event, from J's comment, what I learned from trading, what I learned from dancing, and the Pastor's story "Stretch".
I learn to Stretch!
Stretch and be a better me. Although i do not know why i didn’t make it... But I know I still have space to improve.
Not enough space? Create one!
I'll come again tomorrow, smile bigger, stretch further!
I will continue to work harder; I will achieve all wealth and success in my life.
I want to be a successful and profitable trader, at my Maximum Capacity.
I aim to spend time with family, friends, and Dance!
I will improve my setups consistency and profit unlimitedly from the market.
I hope all like what I share, I hope all Benefit from my Success!
Related: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/p/about.html
Dance Paw
Thursday, August 25, 2011
DJIA on 25-Aug-11 (Thu)
Market expecting some good news from Mr. Ben?
We mentioned from our weekly forecast that DJIA may possibly bounce up from the low and moving towards:
Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530I am expecting a Trapezium to form, hopefully DJIA can rally up above 11530 and ultimately 11800 to form the marginal top before everything collapse again.
Current support: 10600
My trade plan today:
Long Wall Street CFD @ 11177 SL 50 pts, TG 250 pts.
Related Post: Weekly forecast 22-Aug-2011
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Gold on 23-Aug-2011 (Tue)
Mad Bull
Divergence in 30 Min Chart:
Short term correction, looking at healthy pull back Intraday 50% Fibo Level.
Aim to pick long after 3 hours...
The picture explains all...
Daily Chart:
Mad bull and next target above 1900, 1925, 1958.
Fundamental Threat:
Fundamental issue shall kick in, if US Fed Mr. Ben introduce another stimulus... then it might slow down the bull a little bit.
Divergence in 30 Min Chart:
Short term correction, looking at healthy pull back Intraday 50% Fibo Level.
Aim to pick long after 3 hours...
The picture explains all...
Daily Chart:
Mad bull and next target above 1900, 1925, 1958.
Fundamental Threat:
Fundamental issue shall kick in, if US Fed Mr. Ben introduce another stimulus... then it might slow down the bull a little bit.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Quote of the Day~
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
Warren Buffett
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/warren_buffett_2.html
Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.
Another good link: http://warren-buffett-words-of-wisdom.com/
Warren Buffett
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/warren_buffett_2.html
Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.
Another good link: http://warren-buffett-words-of-wisdom.com/
Transaction
Short Wall Street (CFD) 10876 SL 10926 TG 10676 (close EOD)
Long Gold 1865.3 SL 1860 TG 1880
Long GBP/USD 1.6502 SL 1.6452 TG 1.6552 (itchy finger, 1:1 trade)
Reflection:
The moment I post the GBP/USD trade, I think I have made a mistake to let greed and fear took over me, I have just made an aggressive trade.
I am trading for a very small range, expect GBP/USD to pull up before it melt.
Not willing to close the position, but continue to observe myself with this crazy decision.
Face it, and manage it.
3:15pm (GMT+8)
Revised Gold target exit to 1905, SL 1885.
Wall Street moved SL to entry.
Long Gold 1865.3 SL 1860 TG 1880
Long GBP/USD 1.6502 SL 1.6452 TG 1.6552 (itchy finger, 1:1 trade)
Reflection:
The moment I post the GBP/USD trade, I think I have made a mistake to let greed and fear took over me, I have just made an aggressive trade.
I am trading for a very small range, expect GBP/USD to pull up before it melt.
Not willing to close the position, but continue to observe myself with this crazy decision.
Face it, and manage it.
3:15pm (GMT+8)
Revised Gold target exit to 1905, SL 1885.
Wall Street moved SL to entry.
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Bank of America (BAC) seeking 20% cut in consumer unit costs. The company’s workforce of 287,839 at midyear was the largest among U.S. banks. BAC shares has down by 48% this year, double the drop for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index. The bank is likely to eliminate thousands of positions... many people would have lose their job, it is going to be a tough time in US job market.
DJIA
I quite like the forecast last week :)
I expect Dow to extend the fall on Monday and Tuesday until next target 10460.
Upon reaching this target, I have a feeling that DJIA, although they are in bad shape now, may possibly bounce off from the low. Fed chairman is scheduled to speak on Aug 26. Who knows what the policy maker will decide?
Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530
Current support: 10600
Next target: 10460.
If market were strongly supported at 10600 region and cannot break down, expect Dow to pull up to the strong resistance 11460. But do not rush into market because if a double bottom is formed, market may rebound fifty percent to 11835-12000!
My trade plan for Monday is to short at initial shadow, and close by EOD.
On our YM chart, Dow is trading at 10820, and I am going to short at 10920 SL 11020 TG 11620.
Stay tuned to our forum for more updates!
http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8
Nasdaq 100
Among the four major US Indices, Nasdaq 100 shed the most in 1 week.
Gap down, trading down.
It is very difficult to trade now and I suggest to stay out.
Stocks accelerated their selloff to finish near session lows in light, choppy trading last Friday (Aug 19, 2011) as investors were reluctant to remain in the market ahead of a weekend, amid worries over a global recession in addition to the ongoing euro zone jitters.
All three major averages logged their biggest four-week decline since Mar. 2009, with the S&P tumbling almost 16 percent during the period.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 172.93 points, or 1.57 percent, to finish at 10,817.65.
Source: Bloomberg
DJIA
I quite like the forecast last week :)
I expect Dow to extend the fall on Monday and Tuesday until next target 10460.
Upon reaching this target, I have a feeling that DJIA, although they are in bad shape now, may possibly bounce off from the low. Fed chairman is scheduled to speak on Aug 26. Who knows what the policy maker will decide?
Strong Resistance: 11460 - 11530
Current support: 10600
Next target: 10460.
If market were strongly supported at 10600 region and cannot break down, expect Dow to pull up to the strong resistance 11460. But do not rush into market because if a double bottom is formed, market may rebound fifty percent to 11835-12000!
My trade plan for Monday is to short at initial shadow, and close by EOD.
On our YM chart, Dow is trading at 10820, and I am going to short at 10920 SL 11020 TG 11620.
Stay tuned to our forum for more updates!
http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8
Nasdaq 100
Goldman now expects gross domestic product growth of 1.0 percent in the third quarter and 1.5 percent in the fourth — both down from 2.0 percent previously.
"From already quite low growth rates, it appears that the U.S. economy is losing further momentum," Goldman said.
Among the four major US Indices, Nasdaq 100 shed the most in 1 week.
Gap down, trading down.
Source: CNBC
It is very difficult to trade now and I suggest to stay out.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
GBP/USD
While GBP/USD has formed a new high this week and invalidates my forecast, I am going to look back to the bigger time frame to plan my next actions.
Monthly and Weekly Chart Outlook:
Short Term Bullish towards 1.6700-750 resistance.
Expect double top resistance hit hard! And bring GBP/USD down to 1.5500 again.
April'2011 High recorded 1.6746, watch it!
Daily Chart
After 5 days of continuous up up up days, GBP/USD finally marked a new high, and on both Thursday and Friday, GBP/USD create a healthy correction, it has corrected to 1/3 on both Thursday and Friday.
Like what I have mentioned earlier, GBP/USD has formed a inverted head and shoulder and the up up move is going to end soon, so... I am gonna ride the north train before the market collapse. :)
I am not able to get a good entry to long, short term bullishness towards 1.6700 region.
4 Hour Chart
Current Support at 1/3 retracement level 1.6450-480.
I aim to hunt for Long opportunity when the wild cat touches EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, which is a strong support at 1.6380-400.
EUR/USD forecast... stay tuned.
While GBP/USD has formed a new high this week and invalidates my forecast, I am going to look back to the bigger time frame to plan my next actions.
Monthly and Weekly Chart Outlook:
Short Term Bullish towards 1.6700-750 resistance.
Expect double top resistance hit hard! And bring GBP/USD down to 1.5500 again.
April'2011 High recorded 1.6746, watch it!
After 5 days of continuous up up up days, GBP/USD finally marked a new high, and on both Thursday and Friday, GBP/USD create a healthy correction, it has corrected to 1/3 on both Thursday and Friday.
Like what I have mentioned earlier, GBP/USD has formed a inverted head and shoulder and the up up move is going to end soon, so... I am gonna ride the north train before the market collapse. :)
I am not able to get a good entry to long, short term bullishness towards 1.6700 region.
4 Hour Chart
Current Support at 1/3 retracement level 1.6450-480.
I aim to hunt for Long opportunity when the wild cat touches EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, which is a strong support at 1.6380-400.
EUR/USD forecast... stay tuned.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Philly Fed Aug 11 Manufacturing Index
Unemployment Claims:
Jobless claims topped forecast, climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month.
Unemployment at 9.1 percent.
Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/first-time-unemployment-claims-in-u-s-rise-more-than-estimated-to-408-000.html
August 2011 Business Outlook Survey, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity has dipped significantly. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2011/bos0811.cfm
Economic Data is bad.
Stocks tumbled.
The Dow fell 419.63 points, or 3.7 percent, to 10,990.58. Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields to a record low.
Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth
The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
Related: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-netapp-decline.html
EUR/USD
I have shorted on Wednesday at 1.4420 but my trade were out when market create a marginal top to 1.4515.
I almost thought that my forecast would run far this week until I read the forum and found something interesting from R.
The marginal top has actually qualified our setup for a trapezium. BKO level at 1.4400.
I got in a little bit on EUR/USD yesterday during the antenna top, but I exit at a preset 1:1 risk reward ratio of 40 pips.
Last night, EUR/USD found a short term support at 1.4270 and formed a pincer bottom. After last night dip of 180 pips, estimate EUR/USD to pull back to 1.4350 - 400 before breaking lower and hit initial target 1.4180.
Today's trade plan:
Short at 1.4353, SL 1.4400, TG 1.4180
GBP/USD
Daily Chart:
Finally the bull shows exhaustion, 1st bearish candle seen at GBP/USD after 5 days of white candle, GBP/USD formed a new high this month 1.6589.
The new peak has invalidate my forecast, and confirmed an inverted head and shoulder.
from the day chart outlook, GBP/USD is currently moving strong, and the strength may last until 1.6700.
4 Hour Chart:
GBP/USD has corrected 1/3 last night when it found support at 1.6420.
It is likely GBP/USD test the strong support 1.6370-350 today before moving higher.
If GBP/USD retreat to 1.6350 and formed a reversal pattern in intraday chart, I am going in for a long trade.
Today's forecast, market continue to resist below 1.6530 and going to test strong support 1.6350 (I think I am going crazy with the figures?) hahahaa, checked and no typo here.
Today's trade plan:
Short GBP/USD 1.6490 SL 1.6530 TG 1.6370 (entered)
Long GBP/USD 1.6350 SL 1.6300 TG 1.6470 (need to observe market reversal)
Jobless claims topped forecast, climbed by 9,000 to 408,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest in a month.
Unemployment at 9.1 percent.
Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/first-time-unemployment-claims-in-u-s-rise-more-than-estimated-to-408-000.html
August 2011 Business Outlook Survey, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity has dipped significantly. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all declined sharply from last month. Firms indicated that employment and average work hours are lower this month. Price indexes continued to show a trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity also weakened markedly, but firms still expect overall growth in shipments, new orders, and employment over the next six months. The collection period for this month’s survey ran from August 8-16, overlapping a week of unusually high volatility in both domestic and international financial markets.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2011/bos0811.cfm
Economic Data is bad.
Stocks tumbled.
The Dow fell 419.63 points, or 3.7 percent, to 10,990.58. Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields to a record low.
Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth
The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
Related: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-netapp-decline.html
EUR/USD
I have shorted on Wednesday at 1.4420 but my trade were out when market create a marginal top to 1.4515.
I almost thought that my forecast would run far this week until I read the forum and found something interesting from R.
The marginal top has actually qualified our setup for a trapezium. BKO level at 1.4400.
I got in a little bit on EUR/USD yesterday during the antenna top, but I exit at a preset 1:1 risk reward ratio of 40 pips.
Last night, EUR/USD found a short term support at 1.4270 and formed a pincer bottom. After last night dip of 180 pips, estimate EUR/USD to pull back to 1.4350 - 400 before breaking lower and hit initial target 1.4180.
Today's trade plan:
Short at 1.4353, SL 1.4400, TG 1.4180
GBP/USD
Daily Chart:
Finally the bull shows exhaustion, 1st bearish candle seen at GBP/USD after 5 days of white candle, GBP/USD formed a new high this month 1.6589.
The new peak has invalidate my forecast, and confirmed an inverted head and shoulder.
from the day chart outlook, GBP/USD is currently moving strong, and the strength may last until 1.6700.
4 Hour Chart:
GBP/USD has corrected 1/3 last night when it found support at 1.6420.
It is likely GBP/USD test the strong support 1.6370-350 today before moving higher.
If GBP/USD retreat to 1.6350 and formed a reversal pattern in intraday chart, I am going in for a long trade.
Today's forecast, market continue to resist below 1.6530 and going to test strong support 1.6350 (I think I am going crazy with the figures?) hahahaa, checked and no typo here.
Today's trade plan:
Short GBP/USD 1.6490 SL 1.6530 TG 1.6370 (entered)
Long GBP/USD 1.6350 SL 1.6300 TG 1.6470 (need to observe market reversal)
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Gold on 16-Aug-2011 (Tue)
Gold has moved up per our weekly forecast and going up to 1780.
It is so good to capture 1732 on Monday :)
alright, what's next?
Upon taking profit on 1780, I will be expecting a divergence in intraday chart (30 mins)
It is so good to capture 1732 on Monday :)
alright, what's next?
Upon taking profit on 1780, I will be expecting a divergence in intraday chart (30 mins)
Monday, August 15, 2011
Gold
Gold regained its bull power after testing 1722.
Intraday bias up. Next resistance 1760, may possibly go up to 1780.
Daily Chart & Weekly Chart:
A Short term correction for the whole up trend is healthy! And the correction is going to last for another 2 weeks, or more? :-)
Prefer to short at 1780 for position trade, 1st exit 1715, 2nd exit 1700.
Short term trading,
Long 1732, SL 1722 (-10), TG 1762 (+30).
Short 1760 or 1780? observe intraday chart for trade action.
Ayumi babbling...
Intraday bias up. Next resistance 1760, may possibly go up to 1780.
Daily Chart & Weekly Chart:
A Short term correction for the whole up trend is healthy! And the correction is going to last for another 2 weeks, or more? :-)
Prefer to short at 1780 for position trade, 1st exit 1715, 2nd exit 1700.
Short term trading,
Long 1732, SL 1722 (-10), TG 1762 (+30).
Short 1760 or 1780? observe intraday chart for trade action.
Ayumi babbling...
Fundamentally, the US dollar is gonna devalue after recent credit rating issue and the low interest rate. US consumer confidence also plunge to 54.9, lowest in 31 years....
Positive economic data from US Retail sale, employment rate, unemployment claims helped to lift the market, but we at Ayumi the Novice Trader believe that the recession is inevitable, market demand is low, deficit is wide, debt is high, with the government's policy to curb expenses, time is gonna be hard...
Lets hope everything to be fine for all citizen in America.
Weekly Forecast (FX)
May be the market has been interesting for past few months, but once I hear the crash, and the past two weeks has been a very good trading week for intraday trades. Most of my trades were filled and covered within 24 hours.
GBP/USD
Weekly chart, strong resistance at 1.6450-470.
As long as GBP/USD do not trade above the strong resistance 1.6450-470, Bias Down.
Daily chart, temporary rebound, support level 1.6210.
4 Hour Chart, neutral, suspect a consolidation to happen within 1.6200 – 1.6350.
Prefer to short at 1.6350-390, as well as long at 1.6150-200 for intraday trade, target exit 150 pips, must close by EOD.
SL 45 pips.
EUR/USD
Consolidation, consolidation in bigger range.
Group Resistance 1.4400
Group Support 1.4050
Intraday chart (30 min) show higher low, without a higher high, if there’s nothing from the fundamental to boost up the EUROs… or nothing from US again, it is possible for this pair to come lower. My preference is to aim to short the EUR/USD.
Guess it will be a quiet day on Monday… in case EUR/USD moves higher in slow-motion, upon reaching the group resistance I will get ready to short.
Intraday Trade:
Short EUR/USD 1.4410 SL 1.4460 (-50) TG 1.4210 (200)
Long EUR/USD 1.4090 SL 1.4040 (-50) TG 1.4290 (200)
GBP/USD
Weekly chart, strong resistance at 1.6450-470.
As long as GBP/USD do not trade above the strong resistance 1.6450-470, Bias Down.
Daily chart, temporary rebound, support level 1.6210.
4 Hour Chart, neutral, suspect a consolidation to happen within 1.6200 – 1.6350.
Prefer to short at 1.6350-390, as well as long at 1.6150-200 for intraday trade, target exit 150 pips, must close by EOD.
SL 45 pips.
EUR/USD
Consolidation, consolidation in bigger range.
Group Resistance 1.4400
Group Support 1.4050
Intraday chart (30 min) show higher low, without a higher high, if there’s nothing from the fundamental to boost up the EUROs… or nothing from US again, it is possible for this pair to come lower. My preference is to aim to short the EUR/USD.
Guess it will be a quiet day on Monday… in case EUR/USD moves higher in slow-motion, upon reaching the group resistance I will get ready to short.
Intraday Trade:
Short EUR/USD 1.4410 SL 1.4460 (-50) TG 1.4210 (200)
Long EUR/USD 1.4090 SL 1.4040 (-50) TG 1.4290 (200)
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Live the vision
Release your limitless imagination from the confines of your limited ego. And allow the achievement of whatever you envision.
It is your ego that creates doubt. It is your ego that manufactures excuses.
Your ego holds your imagination back, and prevents you from achieving the fulfillment you truly desire. Yet you can choose, with love and positive intention, to let go of that confining, limiting ego.
Stop weighing yourself down with judgments about what you think you need. You have a whole beautiful, limitless imagination with which you can envision and fulfill what you truly desire.
Who you really are is infinitely more valuable than anyone you could ever pretend to be. Allow authenticity to direct and inform your words, your actions, your priorities and your goals.
Go ahead and visualize in rich detail the most beautiful, magnificent life you can imagine. Then stand up, step forward, and begin to truly live that vision.
Source: Ralph Marston, Great Day
Read more: http://greatday.com/motivate/110813.html#ixzz1V002f2B1
Yes, when I need to move forward, it is excuses that I created for myself, I would just say, I am not confident enough, my English is no good, I am afraid, I am not a champion… I have a job… and I just realised that... yeah, maybe it is my ego, so what?? Who cares??
I am not good?
I am a lot better than I was before!
We can either Work Harder for Higher Expectation,
Or
Live with it, accept who we are now, and stop expecting a difference without Change. Yeah, I recall the definition of Insanity:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
It has been a volatile week for the Dow, DJIA has shed 624 pts on Monday - worst since Dec 2008 and then gained 428 pts on Tuesday after testing the strong support at 10600 region, after which the Dow shed 503 pts on Wednesday and gained 395 pts on Thursday with better unemployment claim and continue to rise for 125 pts on Friday.
Weekly candlestick pattern suggest that Dow has found a strong support at 10600, Dow may continue to trade in range but will be suppressed under 11840 level – below its EMA200 line on Daily Chart.
Daily chart shows that DJIA has fulfilled 1/3 retracement (from the highest point in July to the lowest point last week) and with the current bullish sentiment, I forecast DJIA to continue to rise until 50% retracement level on Monday and Tuesday, which is 11650-680 coincide with EMA50 (4H Chart).
For intraday trader, it is good to enter long on Monday but have to follow your trade plan and avoid holding overnight position. There are simply too many announcements and market volatility will make your 300 pts profit run away very quickly.
Upon reaching the 50% retracement level during mid-week, observe for reversal sign either here or near 12000 regions (EMA200 on Daily Chart); grab the opportunity to short DJIA for a good position trade - lets ride the south train together :)
NASDAQ 100
Up up Nasdaq 100 towards 2220 and strong resistance 2250.
Current support 2155.
Similar to DJIA, bullish sentiment shall continue on Monday & Tuesday, good for intraday long trade setup.
Weekly candlestick pattern suggest that Dow has found a strong support at 10600, Dow may continue to trade in range but will be suppressed under 11840 level – below its EMA200 line on Daily Chart.
Daily chart shows that DJIA has fulfilled 1/3 retracement (from the highest point in July to the lowest point last week) and with the current bullish sentiment, I forecast DJIA to continue to rise until 50% retracement level on Monday and Tuesday, which is 11650-680 coincide with EMA50 (4H Chart).
For intraday trader, it is good to enter long on Monday but have to follow your trade plan and avoid holding overnight position. There are simply too many announcements and market volatility will make your 300 pts profit run away very quickly.
Upon reaching the 50% retracement level during mid-week, observe for reversal sign either here or near 12000 regions (EMA200 on Daily Chart); grab the opportunity to short DJIA for a good position trade - lets ride the south train together :)
NASDAQ 100
Up up Nasdaq 100 towards 2220 and strong resistance 2250.
Current support 2155.
Similar to DJIA, bullish sentiment shall continue on Monday & Tuesday, good for intraday long trade setup.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
GBP/USD on 11-Aug-2011 Thu
My trade action for today:
Short 1.6183 SL 1.6220 (-40) TG 1.6020 (+160)
Intraday Forecast
expect a little pull back to form 1/3 retracement (1.62 region) fulfill initial shadow, and continue to fall for the day.
current support 1.6100, next support 1.5999 (lets simplify - 1.6000).
Upon breaking below 1.6100, I will consider to add short.
Profit Pyramiding
Adding another short position is tricky! Tuesday I am sitting for 250 pips, but my 2nd attempt, 3rd attempt, 4th attempt to short were triggered with losses. :-P
that means my nett profit is only 250-40-40-40 = 130 pips...
and yesterday without profit pyramiding clean profit 100 pips...
I still need to work very hard into this, may be seek master advise tonight at ProMaster gathering?
Who will be there?
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Trade Balance
China Trade Surplus
US Trade Deficit
What is the trade balance, trade surplus and trade deficit all about?
The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports.
The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.
净出口（贸易余额）有时会细分成有形商品和无形服务两部分。
Trade Surplus: 贸易顺差
A positive balance is known as a trade surplus if it consists of exporting more than is imported;
淨出口為正值
Trade Deficit: 贸易逆差、贸易赤字
A negative balance is referred to as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap.
淨出口為負值
Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_trade
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-surplus.asp#axzz1UbP3r4jE
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B7%A8%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%A3
China Trade Surplus
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-trade-surplus-widens-more-than-forecast-2011-08-09
Chinese trade surplus widened sharply in July, boosted by above-forecast export growth and offering an upbeat sign for the country’s economy.
The trade surplus expanded to $31.5 billion, from June’s $22.27 billion, according to customs data released Wednesday.
A Reuters survey of economists had projected a $27.5 billion surplus, while a Dow Jones Newswires survey had tipped a $26 billion surfeit.
Export growth for the month accelerated to 20.4%, outpacing 17.9% in June and above the Dow Jones Newswires forecast of 17.5% and Reuters forecast of 17.4%.
Imports also accelerated, rising 22.9% in July compared to 19.3% in June. This outpaced the 22.3% Reuters projection, but lagged the 23.2% tipped by the Dow Jones survey.
US Trade Deficit
What is the trade balance, trade surplus and trade deficit all about?
The balance of trade (or net exports, sometimes symbolized as NX) is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of output in an economy over a certain period. It is the relationship between a nation's imports and exports.
The balance of trade is sometimes divided into a goods and a services balance.
净出口（贸易余额）有时会细分成有形商品和无形服务两部分。
Trade Surplus: 贸易顺差
A positive balance is known as a trade surplus if it consists of exporting more than is imported;
淨出口為正值
Trade Deficit: 贸易逆差、贸易赤字
A negative balance is referred to as a trade deficit or, informally, a trade gap.
淨出口為負值
Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_trade
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-surplus.asp#axzz1UbP3r4jE
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B7%A8%E5%87%BA%E5%8F%A3
China Trade Surplus
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-trade-surplus-widens-more-than-forecast-2011-08-09
Chinese trade surplus widened sharply in July, boosted by above-forecast export growth and offering an upbeat sign for the country’s economy.
The trade surplus expanded to $31.5 billion, from June’s $22.27 billion, according to customs data released Wednesday.
A Reuters survey of economists had projected a $27.5 billion surplus, while a Dow Jones Newswires survey had tipped a $26 billion surfeit.
Export growth for the month accelerated to 20.4%, outpacing 17.9% in June and above the Dow Jones Newswires forecast of 17.5% and Reuters forecast of 17.4%.
Imports also accelerated, rising 22.9% in July compared to 19.3% in June. This outpaced the 22.3% Reuters projection, but lagged the 23.2% tipped by the Dow Jones survey.
Source:
Michael Kitchen is Asia editor for MarketWatch and is based in Los Angeles.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Present value
From Great Day - the Daily Motivator
You’ve been disappointed, and fallen short of the mark. But that was yesterday, and this is today.
Perhaps you weren’t as effective as you could have been, and didn’t discipline yourself as much as you could have done. But that was yesterday, and this is a new day.
Every shortcoming and every disappointment is now in your past. Though their effects may linger for a while, now is your opportunity to start moving beyond them.
You’ve learned some painful, yet valuable lessons. Now you can put those lessons to positive use.
This is a new day, with opportunities for you to act in new, more meaningful and effective ways. This is when you can work to transform your past experience, whatever it may have been, into present value.
No matter what has brought you here, embrace this day. For now you are free to create more good and meaningful substance in your world.
— Ralph Marston
Transaction
Opened Position:
*New Short CL 8046 SL 8146 (-100) TG 7596 (+450) x 2
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Closed Position:
Triggered SL for GBP/USD antenna top trade (-40). Formed triple pincer, breakout and reach intraday high 1.6366.
Triggered SL for GBP/USD intraday short trade. GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
Took Profit for Long GBP/USD butterfly trade.
*New Short CL 8046 SL 8146 (-100) TG 7596 (+450) x 2
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Closed Position:
Triggered SL for GBP/USD antenna top trade (-40). Formed triple pincer, breakout and reach intraday high 1.6366.
Triggered SL for GBP/USD intraday short trade. GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
Took Profit for Long GBP/USD butterfly trade.
Transaction (FX)
Short Open:
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Long Open (Short Term, 4 hrs close at 1pm):
GBP/USD 1.6303 SL 1.6263 (-40) TG 1.6343 (+40)
Short Queue:
GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
GBP/USD 1.6450 SL 1.6445 (+5 pips) TG 1.6200
Long Open (Short Term, 4 hrs close at 1pm):
GBP/USD 1.6303 SL 1.6263 (-40) TG 1.6343 (+40)
Short Queue:
GBP/USD 1.6343 SL 1.6370 (-30) TG 1.6220 (+120)
EUR/USD 1.4253 SL 1.4300 (-50) TG 1.4100 (+150)
Monday, August 8, 2011
Transaction (FX)
Short GBP/USD at 1.6450 SL 1.6500 (-50 pips), TG 1.6200 (+250 pips).
EUR/USD at 1.4347, SL 1.4397 (-50 pips), TG 1.4147 (+200 pips).
Result:
EUR/USD triggered Stop Loss of -50pips.
GBP/USD floating profit +48 pips.
While I m posting this thread, GBP/USD profit >50 pips, and I moved my SL to entry +5 pips.
EUR/USD at 1.4347, SL 1.4397 (-50 pips), TG 1.4147 (+200 pips).
Result:
EUR/USD triggered Stop Loss of -50pips.
GBP/USD floating profit +48 pips.
While I m posting this thread, GBP/USD profit >50 pips, and I moved my SL to entry +5 pips.
Crude oil futures - Weekly review: August 1 - 5
Source: http://www.poten.com/NewsDetails.aspx?id=11501256
Aug, 07, 2011 08:14 AM - Benzinga Lightning Feed
Aug, 07, 2011 08:14 AM - Benzinga Lightning Feed
Last week saw crude oil futures fall sharply, tumbling to a nine-month low on Friday before pulling back, as concerns over the U.S. economic recovery and lingering fears over sovereign debt contagion in the euro zone prompted investors to shun riskier assets.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures (NYMEX, CL) for delivery in September traded at USD87.08 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, plunging 9.5% over the week, its second consecutive weekly decline and the biggest drop since early May.
It earlier fell to USD83.03 a barrel, the lowest price since November 26, 2010.
Crude prices bounced off the nine-month low on Friday after the U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payrolls rose by 117,000 in July, above expectations for an increase of 95,000, while the previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 46,000 from a previously reported 18,000.
The unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 9.1% from 9.2%, the first decline in four months.
However, the better-than-expected jobs data failed to ease fears that the U.S. economic recovery was stalling, after a flurry of weak data earlier in the week fuelled concerns over a possible double-dip recession, underlining concerns over the short-term demand outlook from the world’s largest oil consumer.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. crude supplies increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, rising for the second consecutive week.
Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a 0.5 million barrel increase and the biggest gain since early April.
Global financial service provider Credit Agricole lowered its one-month price forecast for crude to USD85 a barrel, citing the uncertain economic outlook, it said in a report on Friday.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures (ICE, BRN) for September delivery traded at USD109.49 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 6.3% on the week and up USD22.41 on its U.S. counterpart.
After markets closed Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating by one notch to AA+ from AAA, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting a further downgrade could be possible within the next 12 to 18 months.
S&P said the debt ceiling deal reached by lawmakers to cut the federal deficit by an estimated USD2.1 trillion over a decade did not go far enough and “America’s governance and policymaking is becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed.”
In the week ahead, markets will get their first chance to react to the historic U.S. debt downgrade. Traders will also be paying close attention to Tuesday’s Federal Reserve rate announcement and its statement on monetary policy for any hints regarding further easing.
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Wall Street hit the panic button last week and has suffered the worse trading day in three years.
DJIA heavily plunged more than 500 points on last Thursday and Global Stock Market was dampened.
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the market's gauge of anxiety, had its largest daily percentage spike since early 2007 on Thursday.
DJIA
From technical chart, due to the fundamentals, DJIA has hit way beyond our wave target price (> 3L), however, with a reversal candle on daily chart and intraday chart, consolidation bias up - a temporary rebound is likely to happen in the beginning of this week.
Market is going to hit the resistance at the following levels:
Resistance2: 11950
Resistance1: 11680
The development of fundamental issues may continue to decide the next direction of DJIA, if market were to continue coming down, support levels as follow:
Support 1: 11150
Support 2: 10950
NASDAQ 100
Similarly, market is prone to consolidation, bias up towards these resistance levels:
Resistance 2: 2265
Resistance 1: 2220
Without breaking beyond 2220, Nasdaq 100 is going to test current low 2132, breaking below this support 2132; we can see the next support at 2105.
DJIA heavily plunged more than 500 points on last Thursday and Global Stock Market was dampened.
The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, the market's gauge of anxiety, had its largest daily percentage spike since early 2007 on Thursday.
DJIA
From technical chart, due to the fundamentals, DJIA has hit way beyond our wave target price (> 3L), however, with a reversal candle on daily chart and intraday chart, consolidation bias up - a temporary rebound is likely to happen in the beginning of this week.
Market is going to hit the resistance at the following levels:
Resistance2: 11950
Resistance1: 11680
The development of fundamental issues may continue to decide the next direction of DJIA, if market were to continue coming down, support levels as follow:
Support 1: 11150
Support 2: 10950
NASDAQ 100
Similarly, market is prone to consolidation, bias up towards these resistance levels:
Resistance 2: 2265
Resistance 1: 2220
Without breaking beyond 2220, Nasdaq 100 is going to test current low 2132, breaking below this support 2132; we can see the next support at 2105.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
GBP/USD
Weekly candle: Consolidation, with widening range.
Group Resistance: 1.6480
Group Support: 1.6220
Daily Candle: neutral, slightly Bullish, immediate support 1.6320.
Monday GBP/USD may tend to go up higher towards 1.6450 and challenge the group resistance around 1.6480.
Upon reaching this resistance area, GBP/USD may form a bearish divergence in intraday 30 mins chart and trade down to current support 1.6320 again, without breaking below 1.6320, GBP/USD may resume uptrend to 1.6550.
However, if GBP/USD unable to break above resistance but traded below 1.6220 group support, GBP/USD may challenge 2nd support 1.6150.
Monday stay out unless market show good support at 1.6320.
EUR/USD
To be continued....
Weekly candle: Consolidation, with widening range.
Group Resistance: 1.6480
Group Support: 1.6220
Daily Candle: neutral, slightly Bullish, immediate support 1.6320.
Monday GBP/USD may tend to go up higher towards 1.6450 and challenge the group resistance around 1.6480.
Upon reaching this resistance area, GBP/USD may form a bearish divergence in intraday 30 mins chart and trade down to current support 1.6320 again, without breaking below 1.6320, GBP/USD may resume uptrend to 1.6550.
However, if GBP/USD unable to break above resistance but traded below 1.6220 group support, GBP/USD may challenge 2nd support 1.6150.
Monday stay out unless market show good support at 1.6320.
EUR/USD
To be continued....
Friday, August 5, 2011
GBP/USD on 5-Aug-2011 Fri
Head and shoulder formed as per forecast...
My 2nd attempt to short at 1.6440 was missed by 1 pip.
expect next support near 1.6150.
Related Post:
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011 http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Update on Aug 2, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/increase-debt-limit-curb-expenses.html
Quick Update on FX on Aug 3, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-update-on-fx.html
My 2nd attempt to short at 1.6440 was missed by 1 pip.
expect next support near 1.6150.
Related Post:
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011 http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Update on Aug 2, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/increase-debt-limit-curb-expenses.html
Quick Update on FX on Aug 3, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-update-on-fx.html
Dollar Index
Related Post:
Weekly Forecast July 31,2011 http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Update on Aug 2, 2011: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/increase-debt-limit-curb-expenses.html
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/04/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1
Source: CNN Money
Today economic data front, we observe:
GBP 15:00 Jul Halifax HPI (House Price Index) m/m, exp: 0.1%
GBP 16:30 Jul PPI (Producer Price Index) Input m/m, exp 0.6%
US 20:30: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, exp.: 85K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Private Payrolls, exp.: 115K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, exp.: 10K
US 20:30: Jul Unemployment Rate, exp.: 9.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp, exp.: 0.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, exp.: 34.3
US 20:30: Jul Chg in Household Survey Emply
US 03:00: Jun Consumer Credit, exp.: $5.000B
Source: CNN Money
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks plunged Thursday in their single worst day since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Dow tumbled 512 points -- its ninth deepest point drop ever -- as fear about the global economy spooked investors.
The market's fear gauge -- the VIX -- surged 35.8% to a reading of 31.8. A level above 30 signals a high degree of fear.
At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 512 points, or 4.3%, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) among the biggest drags on the blue chip index. Thursday's sell-off marked the steepest point loss since October 2008.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was down a staggering 60 points, or 4.8%.
The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 136 points, or 5.1%. Some of the better performing tech stocks, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Netflix (NFLX) were all down between 2% and 3%.
Fears about a global slowdown are at the forefront of investors' minds amid recent weak economic data. Early Thursday, the latest reading on jobless claims showed a large number of Americans remain unemployed.
Today economic data front, we observe:
GBP 15:00 Jul Halifax HPI (House Price Index) m/m, exp: 0.1%
GBP 16:30 Jul PPI (Producer Price Index) Input m/m, exp 0.6%
US 20:30: Jul Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, exp.: 85K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Private Payrolls, exp.: 115K
US 20:30: Jul Change in Manufact. Payrolls, exp.: 10K
US 20:30: Jul Unemployment Rate, exp.: 9.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp, exp.: 0.2%
US 20:30: Jul Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, exp.: 34.3
US 20:30: Jul Chg in Household Survey Emply
US 03:00: Jun Consumer Credit, exp.: $5.000B
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Quick Update on FX
US Dollar was mixed against most of its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the US economic data front, personal spending fell 0.2% in June (+0.1% expected) while personal income rose 0.1% (+0.2% expecting) according to the US Commerce Department. Also, the Senate has approved a deal to raise the debt ceiling by a 74-26 margin.
GBP/USD
Yesterday, highest GBP/USD has gone up 1.6327, and market is consolidating in a narrow range.
My short is not filled.
Last night there's a butterfly pattern that signifies at possible lift, but the strength didn't last. Upon completion of butterfly, I entered a short on GBP/USD at 1.6300.
Obviously, GBP/USD has shifted to a lower gear with the price action below EMA50 in 4 Hour Chart.
Few scenarios:
(1) go up 1.6350-380 to form right shoulder
(2) resisted at EMA50 and continue trade down
Based on the above scenarios,
Again, I will queue to short at 1.6380 and 1.6440 for position trade.
and Holding on to my opened position short at 1.6300 and target 1.6200 support line.
Great Thought for the Day:
Up to you
Source: IG Markets
GBP/USD
Yesterday, highest GBP/USD has gone up 1.6327, and market is consolidating in a narrow range.
My short is not filled.
Last night there's a butterfly pattern that signifies at possible lift, but the strength didn't last. Upon completion of butterfly, I entered a short on GBP/USD at 1.6300.
Obviously, GBP/USD has shifted to a lower gear with the price action below EMA50 in 4 Hour Chart.
Few scenarios:
(1) go up 1.6350-380 to form right shoulder
(2) resisted at EMA50 and continue trade down
Based on the above scenarios,
Again, I will queue to short at 1.6380 and 1.6440 for position trade.
and Holding on to my opened position short at 1.6300 and target 1.6200 support line.
Great Thought for the Day:
Up to you
You will never solve your problems by getting other people to change. The way to move beyond whatever is holding you back is to make positive changes within yourself.
The problem is not the particular situation you are in. The problem is the way you interpret and relate to that situation.
The problem is not the way you are treated by others. The problem is the way you allow the actions of others to affect you.
The problem is not what has happened in the past. The problem is that you’re letting it continue to hold you back.
Take complete responsibility for a problem, and suddenly you are ninety percent of the distance toward solving it. For when you truly take responsibility, you gain real and powerful control.
Fully accept that it is up to you to get where you choose to go. And you’ll find everything necessary to make it so.
by Ralph Marston
Read more: http://greatday.com/motivate/070626.html#ixzz1Tv5cpPVo
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Increase Debt Limit, Curb Expenses
美国众议院通过调高债限，预期明天Wednesday凌晨进行审批。
The U.S. House on Monday passed the debt-ceiling deal worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, sending it to the Senate for consideration a day before the deadline for the government to face possible default.
Dollar Index
Moving up...
GBP/USD
Widening range, GBP/USD attempted 1.6469 high, without touching 1.6550,
and plunge the our support level 1.6300, as per our weekly forecast.
I expect a consolidation at current price level 1.6300.
Current resistance 1.6380, 2nd resistance 1.6440.
Will try to short at 1.6380 today, if market triggered my SL and moved higher, I will try again at 1.6440 SL 1.6480 (yesterday high).
if market were to be resisted at 1.6440 my 2nd attempt to short is successful, then GBP/USD would have formed a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.
Looking forward to temp support 1.6300, breaking below this level then we shall see GBP/USD fall to 1.6150 support soon.
Related Post: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
The U.S. House on Monday passed the debt-ceiling deal worked out by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders, sending it to the Senate for consideration a day before the deadline for the government to face possible default.
Dollar Index
Moving up...
GBP/USD
Widening range, GBP/USD attempted 1.6469 high, without touching 1.6550,
and plunge the our support level 1.6300, as per our weekly forecast.
I expect a consolidation at current price level 1.6300.
Current resistance 1.6380, 2nd resistance 1.6440.
Will try to short at 1.6380 today, if market triggered my SL and moved higher, I will try again at 1.6440 SL 1.6480 (yesterday high).
if market were to be resisted at 1.6440 my 2nd attempt to short is successful, then GBP/USD would have formed a nice Head and Shoulder pattern.
Looking forward to temp support 1.6300, breaking below this level then we shall see GBP/USD fall to 1.6150 support soon.
Related Post: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/08/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Monday, August 1, 2011
Market Chat
Tomorrow, meet us online!
Market Chat
2nd August 2011 (Tuesday) 9:00pm (GMT+8)
Register online, for 1 hour market chat (from 9pm to 10pm) with my Sifu DAR Wong:
www.pwforex.com/gtchat
Workshop
3 September 2011 - 4 September 2011 (Weekend) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Market Chat
2nd August 2011 (Tuesday) 9:00pm (GMT+8)
Register online, for 1 hour market chat (from 9pm to 10pm) with my Sifu DAR Wong:
www.pwforex.com/gtchat
========
Workshop
3 September 2011 - 4 September 2011 (Weekend) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Weekly Forecast (FX)
GBP/USD
Unexpectedly shoot up in the last 12 hours, before the weekly candle closed GBP/USD bounces off 1.6250, all the way to 1.6450, 200 pips range.
I cannot explain the price action; basically it is due to fundamentals, as well as the technical resistance on Dollar Index.
Devaluation of the USD... Debt Crisis, Debt Limit, Curb Expenditures...
If you have been reading, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader mentioned the following for GBP/USD:
“Unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.”
Market moved up, and formed a high of 1.6469.
Which means, I will sit back, and expect GBP/USD to continue going up to 1.6550 regions = May 31 high...
Expect good support at 1.6300 if GBP/USD were to trade down on Monday.
Short: Stay out until 1.6550 regions.
Long: intraday trade long near support, target 1.6550 region, or close EOD.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has moved up as per forecast, but, my long entry gets triggered when EUR/USD made a new low before it rally.
The chart look weird with a lower low, and higher high, which indirectly means EUR/USD is trading into a widening range.
Support 1.4340 - 1.4280.
Weekly Chart: Indecisive. Resistance 1.4530. Support 1.4230.
Intraday view: Consolidation bias bullish.
No trade, stay out.
Dollar Index
What we like about it….
Hit Resistance on 4 Hour chart, and a quick correction.
As long as Dollar Index do not trade below 73.50 region, the consolidation shall last for the beginning of the week (another 4-6 bars in 4 Hour Chart), any fundamental news that trigger dollar index above 74.60 will lead all the way… up. :)
1st resistance 75.00
2nd resistance 76.00, Target.
If Dollar Index traded below 73.50, then expect dollar to dive down to May 2011 low near 72.80 region.
Chart tells everything..
Unexpectedly shoot up in the last 12 hours, before the weekly candle closed GBP/USD bounces off 1.6250, all the way to 1.6450, 200 pips range.
I cannot explain the price action; basically it is due to fundamentals, as well as the technical resistance on Dollar Index.
Devaluation of the USD... Debt Crisis, Debt Limit, Curb Expenditures...
If you have been reading, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader mentioned the following for GBP/USD:
“Unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.”
Market moved up, and formed a high of 1.6469.
Which means, I will sit back, and expect GBP/USD to continue going up to 1.6550 regions = May 31 high...
Expect good support at 1.6300 if GBP/USD were to trade down on Monday.
Short: Stay out until 1.6550 regions.
Long: intraday trade long near support, target 1.6550 region, or close EOD.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has moved up as per forecast, but, my long entry gets triggered when EUR/USD made a new low before it rally.
The chart look weird with a lower low, and higher high, which indirectly means EUR/USD is trading into a widening range.
Support 1.4340 - 1.4280.
Weekly Chart: Indecisive. Resistance 1.4530. Support 1.4230.
Intraday view: Consolidation bias bullish.
No trade, stay out.
Dollar Index
What we like about it….
Hit Resistance on 4 Hour chart, and a quick correction.
As long as Dollar Index do not trade below 73.50 region, the consolidation shall last for the beginning of the week (another 4-6 bars in 4 Hour Chart), any fundamental news that trigger dollar index above 74.60 will lead all the way… up. :)
1st resistance 75.00
2nd resistance 76.00, Target.
If Dollar Index traded below 73.50, then expect dollar to dive down to May 2011 low near 72.80 region.
Chart tells everything..
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