DJIA
Last week, we forecast that: if DJIA were to post a reversal, it has to at least trade above 121800 and close near 12200.
Over the last week, DJIA traded to highest 12221.33 but highest it close is on Wednesday 12194, it almost post a clear reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart, but, no, DJIA widen the trading range, formed a higher high, and a lower low, finally DJIA closes at 11877, near current support level of 11800.
This week, on the economic data front, we have:
Tue Jun 28 10:00pm US CB Consumer Confidence
Wed Jun 29 10:00pm US Pending Home Sales m/m
Thu Jun 30 8:30pm US Unemployment Claims
Fri Jul 1 10:00pm US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The market fundamentals especially consumer confidence and pending home sales will be the main focus, if the economic data posted a lower-than-market forecast, it will hammer the index toward 11720, or even next support (March low) 11550.
From the technical chart, there are two possibilities for DJIA:
1) fulfilled 1/3 retracement last week, and this week, DJIA will continue to trade lower to hit 3L 11718.
2) if economic data is good, DJIA shall rebound 50%, and consolidate between 12000 - 12300.
a) upon BKO* above 12300, breakup May high 12575
b) upon BKO* below 11720, breakdown March low 11555
*BKO = Breakout
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq 100 close at 2218, slightly below its 200days moving average 2229.
Resistance 2250, Support 2190.
In case 200 days MA hold, and Nasdaq 100 reverse to 2250 resistance level,
In order to neutralize this bearish sentiment, market has to post another weekly gain towards 2300,
However, 2250 is a crucial resistance and we forecast, and further downside is possible to at least 2160.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Gold on Mon 27-June-2011
Gold Monthly Chart and Weekly Chart
Bearish candle formed, with the candle top at 1558.89,
I shorted Gold at 1550, while FR80 is 1554, I put my SL $7.5 away,got triggered, while Gold making another attempt to test May-2011 high 1576.15. Immediately after the high 1558.89, Gold triggered a massive sell, down to 1545 on the same day, 1520 the next day, and settle at 1502 the 3rd day, Friday.
I put up the 4Hour chart for Gold, and observe price action when Gold is trading way below its EMA50 line. Observe the same when Gold is trading way above its EMA50 line. What we get, is ... a Bounce!
Again on 4Hour chart, during current bearish sentiment, Gold formed a pincer bottom at 1498.96 and 1499.
Not to ignore the fundamentals:
1. QE2 ends
2. no hint for stimulation, no hint for QE2.5 or QE3...
3. Fed Fund Rate remain the same
4. US dollar index reverse up.
The Greenback will continue to pressure Gold price.
I am not sure whether Gold will bounce off this low around 1500, if Gold is going to bounce off the low, 1510 will be its immediate resistance. 1530, the tough resistance that could possibly happen but Gold shall not cross above 1540 level again next week to ensure the continuation of this correction until 1445-50. The 15 mins chart illustrate my view.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
This week add 1 column on US Dollar Index...
USD strengthens against most of its major counterparts, and this is what we call a reversal.
Short term resistance 76.505, Target the bullish strength to continue until 77.00 as 1st target.
Daily candle is bullish, weekly candle is bullish, monthly candle (incomplete, 4 more trading days to go) bullish.
crossing above 77.00, next target will be 78.50. Imagine this, what will happen to the other major currency pair? Yes, my dear. Missing the weekly action on GBP/USD or EUR/USD is ok, because, from a bigger time frame, it has just started....
EUR/USD
Thanks to Friday's correction and with Friday closing below 1.4270, EUR/USD is showing a bearish weekly candle and this candlestick pattern indicates more selling pressure.
Weekly Range increased to 400 pips.
Support 1.4072
Suspect EUR/USD to continue trading down to this support on Monday.
and a possible rebound on Tuesday-Wednesday midnight, to 1.4300-350, EUR/USD shall not trade above 1.4400.
Resistance: 1.4300
Trade Short on Monday, Short at 40 pips away from opening price (around 1.4230)
Either close near support 1.4072-080, or close position on Tuesday before 4pm.
I am expecting a rebound around 1.4080 region... If the rebound doesn't happen, add more shorts when this support is broken. Next, may be in 2 weeks time, we are looking at EUR/USD touching the weekly target 1.3722.
GBP/USD
Monthly Candle (incomplete) bearish --- full bodied down bar.
At first I thought EMA200 should hold and pull GBP/USD up for 2-3 days, no, it doesn't happen, and the falling knife is fierce. Catching Long would be the last word you are going to hear from this market.
I though I would be able to enter again. And... I am too naive. I have just lost the chance of making this trade work for me.
Quick short, intraday @ 1.6000, SL 1.6050, TG 1.5850.
I believe upon reaching 1.5850, there will be retracement for 4-5 days, max to reach 1.6240 triple top resistance. Short here. Note: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) June announcement on 8th July.
If 1.5850 support broken without any sign of retracement, then, 1.5508 is the next BIG move which will happen in the whole month of July.
Gosh, this C wave is Looooooooong. Trust the wave.
My feedback on the GBP/USD trade:
My Faith in PowerWave is not strong yet, but I see the power.
Stick to trading the wave bring my trading profit to a different level, but this is not an easy job.. because I always fear of losing the profit. Imagine u watched the account floating 300 pips, and next day, less than 200 pips, clock is ticking, and the profit went to 150 pips, hanging there, and following day back to 300 pips...
2nd challenge is that: my itchy finger wants to short more, but the short position got triggered (at the false break), 2nd short position at BKO is successful (but because I am afraid of being triggered, I moved SL too fast, and miss another 200 pips, try 3rd time add short, triggered (at the triple top).
3rd: due to the failed trades in 2nd challenge, I see the account back to 300 pips.. 350 pips.. and finally let go of the whole trade, without waiting for 1.6050, or ultimate target 1.5850 to hit.
Well, this is a good experience.
And the shit thing is 4th:
After making the money, then I thought I am the queen, high ego, arrogant, stupid, naive and ignorant.
I totally put the good habit aside, and do the same old same old crazy trades.
chasing markets, too much fear, too many opinion, too many charts, and lost focus.
I don't mind of sharing my profit, nor losses, I know I have to go though this, process.
And I am Happy, because, finally, during this great, good, happy, cooling morning, I finally let all out.
I will stick to the rules, hahhaa.... someone called it SOP may be?
I will do it better next time, thanks to the market, that you have yet to ripped off my profit, but teach me a great lesson.
Hope that you like my sharing, I hope everyone can pass the test.
If you are interested, you can go the thread, and this is the journal of the whole GBP/USD trade.
Spotting the opportunity 9th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-on-9-june-2011.html
Shorted 10th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd.html
Construction of the Wave 11th-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/amazing-wave.html
Position Closed 17th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd-trade.html
My Forcast after the position closed 19th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Thought I am the queen and ignorant trade 22-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/quick-update-on-fx.html
Totally different direction, and missed the finale 23-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/market-update-thu-23-june-2011.html
My confession 25-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx_25.html
Short term resistance 76.505, Target the bullish strength to continue until 77.00 as 1st target.
Daily candle is bullish, weekly candle is bullish, monthly candle (incomplete, 4 more trading days to go) bullish.
crossing above 77.00, next target will be 78.50. Imagine this, what will happen to the other major currency pair? Yes, my dear. Missing the weekly action on GBP/USD or EUR/USD is ok, because, from a bigger time frame, it has just started....
EUR/USD
Thanks to Friday's correction and with Friday closing below 1.4270, EUR/USD is showing a bearish weekly candle and this candlestick pattern indicates more selling pressure.
Weekly Range increased to 400 pips.
Support 1.4072
Suspect EUR/USD to continue trading down to this support on Monday.
and a possible rebound on Tuesday-Wednesday midnight, to 1.4300-350, EUR/USD shall not trade above 1.4400.
Resistance: 1.4300
Trade Short on Monday, Short at 40 pips away from opening price (around 1.4230)
Either close near support 1.4072-080, or close position on Tuesday before 4pm.
I am expecting a rebound around 1.4080 region... If the rebound doesn't happen, add more shorts when this support is broken. Next, may be in 2 weeks time, we are looking at EUR/USD touching the weekly target 1.3722.
GBP/USD
Monthly Candle (incomplete) bearish --- full bodied down bar.
At first I thought EMA200 should hold and pull GBP/USD up for 2-3 days, no, it doesn't happen, and the falling knife is fierce. Catching Long would be the last word you are going to hear from this market.
but GBP/USD is trading very near to the weekly target of 1.5850 which is my ultimate target for this short.
And well, if you follow since 2 weeks ago, 1.6450, we short, and 1.5850 is the ultimate target. But I let go of this Golden Chicken that lays golden egg last week.I though I would be able to enter again. And... I am too naive. I have just lost the chance of making this trade work for me.
Quick short, intraday @ 1.6000, SL 1.6050, TG 1.5850.
I believe upon reaching 1.5850, there will be retracement for 4-5 days, max to reach 1.6240 triple top resistance. Short here. Note: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) June announcement on 8th July.
If 1.5850 support broken without any sign of retracement, then, 1.5508 is the next BIG move which will happen in the whole month of July.
Gosh, this C wave is Looooooooong. Trust the wave.
My feedback on the GBP/USD trade:
My Faith in PowerWave is not strong yet, but I see the power.
Stick to trading the wave bring my trading profit to a different level, but this is not an easy job.. because I always fear of losing the profit. Imagine u watched the account floating 300 pips, and next day, less than 200 pips, clock is ticking, and the profit went to 150 pips, hanging there, and following day back to 300 pips...
2nd challenge is that: my itchy finger wants to short more, but the short position got triggered (at the false break), 2nd short position at BKO is successful (but because I am afraid of being triggered, I moved SL too fast, and miss another 200 pips, try 3rd time add short, triggered (at the triple top).
3rd: due to the failed trades in 2nd challenge, I see the account back to 300 pips.. 350 pips.. and finally let go of the whole trade, without waiting for 1.6050, or ultimate target 1.5850 to hit.
Well, this is a good experience.
And the shit thing is 4th:
After making the money, then I thought I am the queen, high ego, arrogant, stupid, naive and ignorant.
I totally put the good habit aside, and do the same old same old crazy trades.
chasing markets, too much fear, too many opinion, too many charts, and lost focus.
I don't mind of sharing my profit, nor losses, I know I have to go though this, process.
And I am Happy, because, finally, during this great, good, happy, cooling morning, I finally let all out.
I will stick to the rules, hahhaa.... someone called it SOP may be?
I will do it better next time, thanks to the market, that you have yet to ripped off my profit, but teach me a great lesson.
Hope that you like my sharing, I hope everyone can pass the test.
If you are interested, you can go the thread, and this is the journal of the whole GBP/USD trade.
Spotting the opportunity 9th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gold-on-9-june-2011.html
Shorted 10th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd.html
Construction of the Wave 11th-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/amazing-wave.html
Position Closed 17th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/gbpusd-trade.html
My Forcast after the position closed 19th June 2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx.html
Thought I am the queen and ignorant trade 22-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/quick-update-on-fx.html
Totally different direction, and missed the finale 23-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/market-update-thu-23-june-2011.html
My confession 25-June-2011:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/06/weekly-forecast-fx_25.html
Friday, June 24, 2011
Weird dream... and today's update
i had a weird dream... and a very crazy and disgusting dream. Yucks!
I couldn't sleep after that... i can still remember it very clearly, yes, super disgusting until i lost my ''inner peace'' haih....
I am feeling super bad yesterday at work, I did a mistake that I included the "Free Upgrades" into the standard AMC package in which all my colleagues never did.. I did't know where I get this terms... and I have been using it since the 1st proposal. My senior mentioned that she don't have this in her proposal, few months back, and I didn't think it is important either, until yesterday.
Have a potential client, who is very concern on the AMC... and has been negotiating for the 4th time in a week.
I am feeling weak, and lost of hope.
If not with my wise colleague, I think I am gonna go burst.
I shall learn to not let emotion control my actions. I am easily distracted if things never go my way.
If something happen not to my expectation, I will be angry first, then within 15 mins, I will be disappointed, sad, think that it is my fault, and collapse... If there's no solution that I can think of, I will put it aside, ignore it.
But Ignoring things cannot solve a problem!
Mentor have said the same, he said that I am simply too emotional. Yes mentor, I hear u said this before, I listen, but I never do. I don't know how... may be I know how, I just don't think I have the strength... nor the continual effort to work it out. I used to have a shoulder to cry on... but I need to cry with a box of tissue now.
Dance class, get myself tired, and sleep. But wake up with a bad dream.
Time to get up, and fire up some charts.
US Economic Front
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 18th (Sat) rose more than expected at 429K (415K expected). According to the Commerce Department, new home sales for the period of May fell 2.1% (-4% expected) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319.000 (310K expected).
Euro-Zone
The Euro-Zone composite PMI index fell to 53.6 in June (55.2 expected), a 20-month low, from 55.8 the prior month.
Gold
Gold tumbled below $1520, sad, sad, my stop triggered and not able to get in....
US dollar jumped against its major counterparts and pressured the Gold price. As what we mentioned before, US dollar is showing a change of trend.
Lowest 1512.50 last night, this short term rebound could lead to 1535-1538 before Gold continue to plunge.
GBP/USD
Tumbled below 1.5936 and retrace to 1.6013.
Resistance 1.6050 - 1.6065 region.
Stay out.
EUR/USD
Enough for the dip for EUR/USD
possible reversal, current resistance 1.4280, 1.4340.
Stay out.
I couldn't sleep after that... i can still remember it very clearly, yes, super disgusting until i lost my ''inner peace'' haih....
I am feeling super bad yesterday at work, I did a mistake that I included the "Free Upgrades" into the standard AMC package in which all my colleagues never did.. I did't know where I get this terms... and I have been using it since the 1st proposal. My senior mentioned that she don't have this in her proposal, few months back, and I didn't think it is important either, until yesterday.
Have a potential client, who is very concern on the AMC... and has been negotiating for the 4th time in a week.
I am feeling weak, and lost of hope.
If not with my wise colleague, I think I am gonna go burst.
I shall learn to not let emotion control my actions. I am easily distracted if things never go my way.
If something happen not to my expectation, I will be angry first, then within 15 mins, I will be disappointed, sad, think that it is my fault, and collapse... If there's no solution that I can think of, I will put it aside, ignore it.
But Ignoring things cannot solve a problem!
Mentor have said the same, he said that I am simply too emotional. Yes mentor, I hear u said this before, I listen, but I never do. I don't know how... may be I know how, I just don't think I have the strength... nor the continual effort to work it out. I used to have a shoulder to cry on... but I need to cry with a box of tissue now.
Dance class, get myself tired, and sleep. But wake up with a bad dream.
Time to get up, and fire up some charts.
US Economic Front
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended June 18th (Sat) rose more than expected at 429K (415K expected). According to the Commerce Department, new home sales for the period of May fell 2.1% (-4% expected) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319.000 (310K expected).
Euro-Zone
The Euro-Zone composite PMI index fell to 53.6 in June (55.2 expected), a 20-month low, from 55.8 the prior month.
Gold
Gold tumbled below $1520, sad, sad, my stop triggered and not able to get in....
US dollar jumped against its major counterparts and pressured the Gold price. As what we mentioned before, US dollar is showing a change of trend.
Lowest 1512.50 last night, this short term rebound could lead to 1535-1538 before Gold continue to plunge.
GBP/USD
Tumbled below 1.5936 and retrace to 1.6013.
Resistance 1.6050 - 1.6065 region.
Stay out.
EUR/USD
Enough for the dip for EUR/USD
possible reversal, current resistance 1.4280, 1.4340.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Market Update Thu 23-June-2011
US Dollar rose against most of its major counterparts on Wednesday. US Dollar index is showing a possible reversal on Weekly and Daily Chart, on the US economic front, house price index rose 0.8% (-0.3% expected) in April.
Gold
Gold rose above 1550 yesterday afternoon and my short position is activated.
However, upon FOMC press conference at night, Gold rose above 1557 and taken out my stop loss before it continues to drop below.
The FOMC kept interest rates at 0.25% as expected for an extended period and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke added that "extended period" means at least two or three meetings.
EUR/USD
the Greek government has won a confidence vote for extra austerity measures that should allow it to receive further aid from IMF lifted the market.
EUR/USD were mixed yesterday, formed a doji candlestick pattern and GBP/USD already showing a BIG fall.
I am bearish on EUR/USD when it touches 1.4441 high last night, my short position were not entered because I have been queueing at 1.4470...
I forecast EUR/USD to continue trading in channel with bearish bias today until this evening.
US Unemployment Claims, tonight 8:30pm, could be another economic data that I am looking forward.
It is a good time to pick short today at 50% of yesterday Hi-Lo near 1.4370.
GBP/USD
The British Pound dropped against its major counterparts. Minutes of the Bank of England’s policy meeting earlier this month confirmed a 7-2 vote in favour of leaving rates unchanged.
I m upset because I was too concentrate on EUR/USD last night and missed GBP/USD totally... and it has corrected to 1.6050 level as forecast, touching its 200 days EMA...
Stay out, or watch for possible pull back to 1.6070 to sell, ultimate target 1.5850.
Gold
Gold rose above 1550 yesterday afternoon and my short position is activated.
However, upon FOMC press conference at night, Gold rose above 1557 and taken out my stop loss before it continues to drop below.
The FOMC kept interest rates at 0.25% as expected for an extended period and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke added that "extended period" means at least two or three meetings.
EUR/USD
the Greek government has won a confidence vote for extra austerity measures that should allow it to receive further aid from IMF lifted the market.
EUR/USD were mixed yesterday, formed a doji candlestick pattern and GBP/USD already showing a BIG fall.
I am bearish on EUR/USD when it touches 1.4441 high last night, my short position were not entered because I have been queueing at 1.4470...
I forecast EUR/USD to continue trading in channel with bearish bias today until this evening.
US Unemployment Claims, tonight 8:30pm, could be another economic data that I am looking forward.
It is a good time to pick short today at 50% of yesterday Hi-Lo near 1.4370.
GBP/USD
The British Pound dropped against its major counterparts. Minutes of the Bank of England’s policy meeting earlier this month confirmed a 7-2 vote in favour of leaving rates unchanged.
I m upset because I was too concentrate on EUR/USD last night and missed GBP/USD totally... and it has corrected to 1.6050 level as forecast, touching its 200 days EMA...
Stay out, or watch for possible pull back to 1.6070 to sell, ultimate target 1.5850.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Quick Update on FX
EUR/USD
Posted the 4th bullish candle on Day Chart, EUR was trading at 1.4406 against the USD, like what I forecasted on Sunday, EUR/USD is doing a temporary rebound.
Related: Weekly Forecast 2011-06-20
Resistance capped at 1.4370.
Today I still trade long: 1.4370, SL 1.4343 (-30 pips), TG 1.4470 (+97 pips)
* Extra spread of 3 pips for guaranteed SL.
GBP/USD
Like forecast, the rebound has taken place, 3 bullish candle formed, with long legs at bottom.
Resistance 1.6320.
Today I am trading long on GBP/USD: 1.6177, SL 1.6150 (- 30 pips), TG 1.6316 (+136 pips)
Extra spread of 3 pips for guaranteed SL.
News:
Today (Wednesday) on GBP - 4:30pm MPC Meeting Minutes,
and midnight after 12:30am (Thursday):
Thursday 12:30am US FOMC, Fed Fund Rate ***
Thursday 2:15am US FOMC Press Conference ***
Posted the 4th bullish candle on Day Chart, EUR was trading at 1.4406 against the USD, like what I forecasted on Sunday, EUR/USD is doing a temporary rebound.
Related: Weekly Forecast 2011-06-20
Resistance capped at 1.4370.
Today I still trade long: 1.4370, SL 1.4343 (-30 pips), TG 1.4470 (+97 pips)
* Extra spread of 3 pips for guaranteed SL.
GBP/USD
Like forecast, the rebound has taken place, 3 bullish candle formed, with long legs at bottom.
Resistance 1.6320.
Today I am trading long on GBP/USD: 1.6177, SL 1.6150 (- 30 pips), TG 1.6316 (+136 pips)
Extra spread of 3 pips for guaranteed SL.
News:
Today (Wednesday) on GBP - 4:30pm MPC Meeting Minutes,
and midnight after 12:30am (Thursday):
Thursday 12:30am US FOMC, Fed Fund Rate ***
Thursday 2:15am US FOMC Press Conference ***
Ignoring a problem doesn't solve it
Just face it, and watch the market behave, and accept that I am wrong, and take total responsibilities.
Sometimes we saw an opportunity, we enter, be it 1 mini or 1 standard lot, the market will continue to trade in the opposite direction, we will first have to allocate margin $$ to trade, pay for the spread $$, sometimes market may continue to trade in the direct opposite, before going to the favorable direction, up or down.
Why should the market immediately turn when you enter?
Why should the market trading in straight line?
It is variable, interesting, full of mystery, and that's why it keeps amusing us..
Instead of ignoring the trade, I watch, and watching it until my stop loss were triggered.
I questioned myself, and assure myself that, yes, this is the loss / risk that i am willing to bear / exchange for the potential profit.
GBP/USD triggered stop:
Long 1: GBP/USD 1.6133, SL 1.6190 (+57 pips).
Long 2: GBP/USD 1.6186, SL 1.6190 (+4 pips).
Nasdaq 100 triggered stop:
Short: 2213 SL 2223 (-10 pts).
DJIA triggered stop:
Short: 12146 SL 12176 (-30 pts).
Sometimes we saw an opportunity, we enter, be it 1 mini or 1 standard lot, the market will continue to trade in the opposite direction, we will first have to allocate margin $$ to trade, pay for the spread $$, sometimes market may continue to trade in the direct opposite, before going to the favorable direction, up or down.
Why should the market immediately turn when you enter?
Why should the market trading in straight line?
It is variable, interesting, full of mystery, and that's why it keeps amusing us..
Instead of ignoring the trade, I watch, and watching it until my stop loss were triggered.
I questioned myself, and assure myself that, yes, this is the loss / risk that i am willing to bear / exchange for the potential profit.
GBP/USD triggered stop:
Long 1: GBP/USD 1.6133, SL 1.6190 (+57 pips).
Long 2: GBP/USD 1.6186, SL 1.6190 (+4 pips).
Nasdaq 100 triggered stop:
Short: 2213 SL 2223 (-10 pts).
DJIA triggered stop:
Short: 12146 SL 12176 (-30 pts).
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Transactions (FX)
Yesterday my Long on EUR/USD triggered stop loss -30 pips.
Long on GBP/USD (1.6133) were safe, and later in the evening move in favour. I added another short (1.6186) when GBP/USD breakout the previous resistance.
It is a hardtime at night (10pm - 1am) GBP/USD formed a strong reversal candle, and facing three hours of pullback. I decided to let the position open and running, and go to bed.
Statement always come during middle of the night, GBP/USD was trading at 1.6169 lowest before it decided to continue go up. It was only 6 pips away from my stop loss...
This morning, the screen is showing better figure, GBP/USD last trading at 1.6230, and I moved all my stop loss to the breakout level 1.6190.
Summary:
Long 1: GBP/USD 1.6133, SL 1.6190 (+57 pips), TG 1.6283 (+150 pips)
Long 2: GBP/USD 1.6186, SL 1.6190 (+4 pips), TG 1.6276 (+90 pips)
My Gold position to Short and Long is still opened: Long @ 1520, Short @ 1550.
Long on GBP/USD (1.6133) were safe, and later in the evening move in favour. I added another short (1.6186) when GBP/USD breakout the previous resistance.
It is a hardtime at night (10pm - 1am) GBP/USD formed a strong reversal candle, and facing three hours of pullback. I decided to let the position open and running, and go to bed.
Statement always come during middle of the night, GBP/USD was trading at 1.6169 lowest before it decided to continue go up. It was only 6 pips away from my stop loss...
This morning, the screen is showing better figure, GBP/USD last trading at 1.6230, and I moved all my stop loss to the breakout level 1.6190.
Summary:
Long 1: GBP/USD 1.6133, SL 1.6190 (+57 pips), TG 1.6283 (+150 pips)
Long 2: GBP/USD 1.6186, SL 1.6190 (+4 pips), TG 1.6276 (+90 pips)
My Gold position to Short and Long is still opened: Long @ 1520, Short @ 1550.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Weekly Forecast (FX)
EUR/USD
First time I posted a picture with this much of indicators...
my aim is to present a triple crossing, and a reversal candlestick pattern on Daily Chart for EUR/USD.
Weekly Chart: Bearish
Daily Chart: Bottom up Reversal, next resistance 1.4370, strong resistance 1.4470.
Short Term: I am bullish on EUR/USD, I entered Long last Friday, but were killed with a stop loss of 20 pips, when market make a long slim leg at bottom.
This bullish momentum shall last until 1.4370, or max 1.4470.
I seek for Short at both of these levels, ultimate stop 1.4500.
However, for short term, I will trade Long.
Monday: Long 1.4230, SL 1.4200, TG 1.4370, if position hold on well, then will add another position to long and will move target to 1.4420-70.
GBP/USD
I covered the short position at 1.6130 last Friday, it has been a long while since I get more than 300 pips in 1 single position, I tried to short twice, during breakout, but were killed twice too.
Holding on to the 1st short at 1.6450, for a position over 2 weeks result in 320pips profit is rare for the past few months of trading.
I tried changing time frame, learning to apply power wave, and trade only with wave target price, it is not an easy transformation.
I learn something new, and I am applying it to my trading -> print the chart out.
It makes a little difference, this little difference is profound. I will now constantly, easily, without the need of coming to my blog to check my trades... I am reminding myself of my long term view on the market, with the printed chart.
You can try this at home. :)
GBP/USD has more downward pressure, but with Friday's indecisive candle, I suspect a little bit of pull up to 1.6320.
Monday is a good day to trade for Long for quick profit enter during mid day and close position at night, I will pay little attention to Tuesday 4:30pm - public sector net borrowing, Wednesday 4:30pm MPC Meeting Minutes, and midnight after 12:30am due to US FOMC meeting. I prefer to watch and observe for the opportunity to Short if market already trading above 1.6300 region.
Support 1.6050, breaking below 1.6050, next support 1.5850 (target in 2 weeks).
all timing are in MY/SG time (GMT+8)
First time I posted a picture with this much of indicators...
my aim is to present a triple crossing, and a reversal candlestick pattern on Daily Chart for EUR/USD.
Weekly Chart: Bearish
Daily Chart: Bottom up Reversal, next resistance 1.4370, strong resistance 1.4470.
Short Term: I am bullish on EUR/USD, I entered Long last Friday, but were killed with a stop loss of 20 pips, when market make a long slim leg at bottom.
This bullish momentum shall last until 1.4370, or max 1.4470.
I seek for Short at both of these levels, ultimate stop 1.4500.
However, for short term, I will trade Long.
Monday: Long 1.4230, SL 1.4200, TG 1.4370, if position hold on well, then will add another position to long and will move target to 1.4420-70.
GBP/USD
I covered the short position at 1.6130 last Friday, it has been a long while since I get more than 300 pips in 1 single position, I tried to short twice, during breakout, but were killed twice too.
Holding on to the 1st short at 1.6450, for a position over 2 weeks result in 320pips profit is rare for the past few months of trading.
I tried changing time frame, learning to apply power wave, and trade only with wave target price, it is not an easy transformation.
I learn something new, and I am applying it to my trading -> print the chart out.
It makes a little difference, this little difference is profound. I will now constantly, easily, without the need of coming to my blog to check my trades... I am reminding myself of my long term view on the market, with the printed chart.
You can try this at home. :)
GBP/USD has more downward pressure, but with Friday's indecisive candle, I suspect a little bit of pull up to 1.6320.
Monday is a good day to trade for Long for quick profit enter during mid day and close position at night, I will pay little attention to Tuesday 4:30pm - public sector net borrowing, Wednesday 4:30pm MPC Meeting Minutes, and midnight after 12:30am due to US FOMC meeting. I prefer to watch and observe for the opportunity to Short if market already trading above 1.6300 region.
Support 1.6050, breaking below 1.6050, next support 1.5850 (target in 2 weeks).
all timing are in MY/SG time (GMT+8)
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
Last week on the Wall Street, some economic data releases like Retail Sale and PPI were giving the market a boost, later part of the week economic data were mixed, US unemployment rate is high and consumer sentiment is weak!
The Euro-Zone debt crisis, will it spread over to US?
Will there be a QE3, or QE2.5 coming up?
DJIA
Volume start to pick up on last Friday, while DJIA is trading at the oversold region.
DJIA closed at 12004.36, slightly above 12000.... posting the 1st weekly gain after 6 weeks fall... Technically, DJIA is bearish, with the downtrend intact, current resistance shifted down to 12120. Weekly candle suggest a possible reversal, however, if the market were to reverse and move up, it has to at least break above 12180 and close near 12200.
Current support 11850 shall not be broken, in case market traded below this level, then market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.
Early of the week we can short DJIA upon reaching resistance of 12120, stop loss 12150, target 12000. Pay attention to your position during Thursday 12:30am - FOMC, Fed Fun Rate and 2:15am Press Conference.
Major economic data release ( GMT+8 )
Tuesday 10pm Existing Home Sale
Thursday 12:30am FOMC, Fed Fund Rate ***
Thursday 12:30am FOMC Press Conference ***
Thursday 8:30pm Unemployment Claims (as usual)
Thursday 10pm New Home Sale
Friday 8:30pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Nasdaq 100
Many believed that Nasdaq 100 is the leading indicator of the market movement, and Nasdaq 100 has posted the 7th losing week, and traded below March'11 low.
the market is facing strong selling pressure and traded below its 200days moving averages.
Best trade action on Nasdaq 100, is to trade Short, Monday pick a quick short trade if Nasdaq 100 trading near 2210, SL 2215, Target 2185.
The Euro-Zone debt crisis, will it spread over to US?
Will there be a QE3, or QE2.5 coming up?
DJIA
Volume start to pick up on last Friday, while DJIA is trading at the oversold region.
DJIA closed at 12004.36, slightly above 12000.... posting the 1st weekly gain after 6 weeks fall... Technically, DJIA is bearish, with the downtrend intact, current resistance shifted down to 12120. Weekly candle suggest a possible reversal, however, if the market were to reverse and move up, it has to at least break above 12180 and close near 12200.
Current support 11850 shall not be broken, in case market traded below this level, then market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.
Early of the week we can short DJIA upon reaching resistance of 12120, stop loss 12150, target 12000. Pay attention to your position during Thursday 12:30am - FOMC, Fed Fun Rate and 2:15am Press Conference.
Major economic data release ( GMT+8 )
Tuesday 10pm Existing Home Sale
Thursday 12:30am FOMC, Fed Fund Rate ***
Thursday 12:30am FOMC Press Conference ***
Thursday 8:30pm Unemployment Claims (as usual)
Thursday 10pm New Home Sale
Friday 8:30pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Nasdaq 100
Many believed that Nasdaq 100 is the leading indicator of the market movement, and Nasdaq 100 has posted the 7th losing week, and traded below March'11 low.
the market is facing strong selling pressure and traded below its 200days moving averages.
Best trade action on Nasdaq 100, is to trade Short, Monday pick a quick short trade if Nasdaq 100 trading near 2210, SL 2215, Target 2185.
Gold on Mon 20-June-2011
Ups and Downs...
Last week on my trading, I am actively trading the GBP/USD, paying little attention on Gold.
Comparatively, the short opportunity in currencies were good and paying good returns to many short traders.
From small time frame (1 hour), Gold is trading higher and higher last week, higher high, higher low, while I am waiting for the opportunity to Short Gold especially near the week's closing.
I almost wanted to short when Gold breaking to 1538, but I sit back, and wanted to wait until Monday for my trade action.
Generally, Gold is not easy to trade last week, especially the long shadow, long traders will generally need to stomach stop loss range from $6-$10 whereby the daily range is only $16-$18.
Next week, I am looking forward to Gold trading in consolidation, range from 1550 - 1520.
I would continue to seek for the daily reversal and confirmation for short opportunities near 1550-1554 high.
Last week on my trading, I am actively trading the GBP/USD, paying little attention on Gold.
Comparatively, the short opportunity in currencies were good and paying good returns to many short traders.
From small time frame (1 hour), Gold is trading higher and higher last week, higher high, higher low, while I am waiting for the opportunity to Short Gold especially near the week's closing.
I almost wanted to short when Gold breaking to 1538, but I sit back, and wanted to wait until Monday for my trade action.
Generally, Gold is not easy to trade last week, especially the long shadow, long traders will generally need to stomach stop loss range from $6-$10 whereby the daily range is only $16-$18.
Next week, I am looking forward to Gold trading in consolidation, range from 1550 - 1520.
I would continue to seek for the daily reversal and confirmation for short opportunities near 1550-1554 high.
Neat Freak, me
Got this link from Jules....
Take Free Advanced Global Personality Test
Personality Test by SimilarMinds.com
Stability results were low which suggests you are very worrying, insecure, emotional, and anxious.
Orderliness results were high which suggests you are overly organized, reliable, neat, and hard working at the expense too often of flexibility, efficiency, spontaneity, and fun.
Extraversion results were medium which suggests you are moderately talkative, outgoing, sociable and interacting.
trait snapshot:
neat freak, organized, worrying, phobic, fears the unknown, irritable, pessimistic, emotionally sensitive, fears chaos, risk averse, fragile, unadventurous, depressed, frequently second guesses self, likes to fit in, does not like to stand out, perfectionist, hard working, does not like to be alone, clingy, dependent, practical, ordinary, cautious, takes precautions, good at saving money, suspicious, heart over mind, busy, altruistic.
Neat Freak?
hahahhaaa crazy
My trait has changed so much....
Advanced Global Personality Test Results
|
Personality Test by SimilarMinds.com
Stability results were low which suggests you are very worrying, insecure, emotional, and anxious.
Orderliness results were high which suggests you are overly organized, reliable, neat, and hard working at the expense too often of flexibility, efficiency, spontaneity, and fun.
Extraversion results were medium which suggests you are moderately talkative, outgoing, sociable and interacting.
trait snapshot:
neat freak, organized, worrying, phobic, fears the unknown, irritable, pessimistic, emotionally sensitive, fears chaos, risk averse, fragile, unadventurous, depressed, frequently second guesses self, likes to fit in, does not like to stand out, perfectionist, hard working, does not like to be alone, clingy, dependent, practical, ordinary, cautious, takes precautions, good at saving money, suspicious, heart over mind, busy, altruistic.
Neat Freak?
hahahhaaa crazy
My trait has changed so much....
Peaceful Warrior
I am having more training, practices, rehearsals for the Dance competition which in coming up in August... which is two months later.
There are more activities recently, I think it happens to many other industries as well.... Dancing - we have more seminars, workshops and competition. Because the 1st half of the year is for preparation and logistics arrangements...
Financial Market - we have more talks, more preview, more associates, more news that we are looking forward... may be they are not more, but there are simply more people ''getting involved''... QE2 coming to the end...
I have finished watching a great movie just now, it is a old show.. "Peaceful Warrior", it is a very meaningful, very good, deep and touching movie.
Control, fear, ego, choices, actions, realistic, choose our actions and accept the consequences, awareness, there's always something happening, and focus on the process... happiness, and "so what".. :)
Worth to watch at least twice!
The Book:
There are more activities recently, I think it happens to many other industries as well.... Dancing - we have more seminars, workshops and competition. Because the 1st half of the year is for preparation and logistics arrangements...
Financial Market - we have more talks, more preview, more associates, more news that we are looking forward... may be they are not more, but there are simply more people ''getting involved''... QE2 coming to the end...
I have finished watching a great movie just now, it is a old show.. "Peaceful Warrior", it is a very meaningful, very good, deep and touching movie.
Control, fear, ego, choices, actions, realistic, choose our actions and accept the consequences, awareness, there's always something happening, and focus on the process... happiness, and "so what".. :)
Worth to watch at least twice!
The Book:
Friday, June 17, 2011
GBP/USD trade
Short Position closed at 1.6130.
Telco line not stable...
Cheers
Ayumi on BlogPress from my iPhone.
Telco line not stable...
Cheers
Ayumi on BlogPress from my iPhone.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
DJIA rebound
like what we mentioned last Sunday for this week's DJIA forecast.
Market were oversold and the good news has lifted the market.
last night DJIA rebounded above 12000 level and closed at 12076 (+123.14 pts, 1.03%).
Next Resistance 12300.
Last night,
8:30pm PPI rose 0.2%, above market forecast / consensus 0.1%, down from previous 0.8%.
** PPI = Producer Price Index; Also called as Whole Sale Prices
Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.
8:30pm Retail Sales slumped -0.2%, above market forecast of -0.3%,
** Retail Sales = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Major economic data release
Wednesday 9:00pm TIC Long Term Purchase
Thursday 8:30pm Building Permit & Unemployment Claims
Thursday 10pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday 9:55am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Read:
PPI - Bloomberg
Retail Sale - Bloomberg
Related:
DJIA and Nasdaq 100 on 13-June-2011
Market were oversold and the good news has lifted the market.
last night DJIA rebounded above 12000 level and closed at 12076 (+123.14 pts, 1.03%).
Next Resistance 12300.
Last night,
8:30pm PPI rose 0.2%, above market forecast / consensus 0.1%, down from previous 0.8%.
** PPI = Producer Price Index; Also called as Whole Sale Prices
Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.
8:30pm Retail Sales slumped -0.2%, above market forecast of -0.3%,
** Retail Sales = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Major economic data release
Wednesday 9:00pm TIC Long Term Purchase
Thursday 8:30pm Building Permit & Unemployment Claims
Thursday 10pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday 9:55am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Read:
PPI - Bloomberg
Retail Sale - Bloomberg
Related:
DJIA and Nasdaq 100 on 13-June-2011
Sunday, June 12, 2011
DJIA and Nasdaq 100
The stock market suffered wide-spread selling, pushing the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 in negative territory for the year.
DJIA
Last week, DJIA opened at 12151.20, closed at 11951.90 (-199.30 pts), -1.6%. Market fall for the 6th week.
We forecast market to enter into consolidation, with bearish momentum.
Market was oversold, and this week, economic data release is heavy, this would decide the next market direction. If economic data is strong, we may see a sudden rebound above 12000 and 12300.
Otherwise, market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.
Major economic data release
Tuesday 8:30pm Retail Sales & PPI
Wednesday 9:00pm TIC Long Term Purchase
Thursday 8:30pm Building Permit & Unemployment Claims
Thursday 10pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday 9:55am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Nasdaq 100
Last week economic data release is mixed but triggered massive selling in Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 is trading in negative territory for the year, opened at 2289.34, closed at 2223.34 (-66 pts), -2.9%.
Next support would be Mar'11 low 2188.92 (34.42 pts away).
However, if the policy maker stop printing money, no announcement on QE3, or any other policy to support the market by end of this month, we may foresee Nasdaq 100 resisted at 2270, and the waterfall to continue testing 2085 (Nov'10 low).
Waiting for the next giant move.
DJIA
Last week, DJIA opened at 12151.20, closed at 11951.90 (-199.30 pts), -1.6%. Market fall for the 6th week.
We forecast market to enter into consolidation, with bearish momentum.
Market was oversold, and this week, economic data release is heavy, this would decide the next market direction. If economic data is strong, we may see a sudden rebound above 12000 and 12300.
Otherwise, market will dip to support 11720 and March low 11550.
Major economic data release
Tuesday 8:30pm Retail Sales & PPI
Wednesday 9:00pm TIC Long Term Purchase
Thursday 8:30pm Building Permit & Unemployment Claims
Thursday 10pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday 9:55am Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Nasdaq 100
Last week economic data release is mixed but triggered massive selling in Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 is trading in negative territory for the year, opened at 2289.34, closed at 2223.34 (-66 pts), -2.9%.
Next support would be Mar'11 low 2188.92 (34.42 pts away).
However, if the policy maker stop printing money, no announcement on QE3, or any other policy to support the market by end of this month, we may foresee Nasdaq 100 resisted at 2270, and the waterfall to continue testing 2085 (Nov'10 low).
Waiting for the next giant move.
Gold on Mon 13-Jun-2011
Support: 1520 (weak) 1500 (strong) 1450 (major)
From a bigger time frame, I forecast Gold to correct below 1500.
Last Monday, Gold manage to climb to 1554 high, and corrected to 1530 region by end of the week.
This week, I am still bearish on Gold and aim to pick short around 1540-1545.
If Gold is crossing below 1526, then it will form a triple crossing on day chart - indicate the start of the correction and we target 1500 as first exit, this correction shall last until month-end, if the bear is strong and break below 1500, then we are looking at 1450 major support.
Monday
Short 1545, SL 1554 (9 pts), TG 1510 (will hold for days)
If Gold break below 1526, I will add another short at 1530 and move exit to 1500.
If the bear wins...
Gold breaking the channel bottom of 1500, then we are looking at 1450 major support.
From a bigger time frame, I forecast Gold to correct below 1500.
Last Monday, Gold manage to climb to 1554 high, and corrected to 1530 region by end of the week.
This week, I am still bearish on Gold and aim to pick short around 1540-1545.
If Gold is crossing below 1526, then it will form a triple crossing on day chart - indicate the start of the correction and we target 1500 as first exit, this correction shall last until month-end, if the bear is strong and break below 1500, then we are looking at 1450 major support.
Monday
Short 1545, SL 1554 (9 pts), TG 1510 (will hold for days)
If Gold break below 1526, I will add another short at 1530 and move exit to 1500.
If the bear wins...
Gold breaking the channel bottom of 1500, then we are looking at 1450 major support.
Taking Imagination Seriously
I viewed this TED talk this morning, it is a great talk.
http://www.ted.com/talks/janet_echelman.html
American artist Janet Echelman reshapes urban airspace with monumental, fluidly moving sculpture that responds to environmental forces including wind, water, and sunlight.
Challenges:
Bringing imagination, to live.
Sharing the re-discovery of wonder.
http://www.ted.com/talks/janet_echelman.html
American artist Janet Echelman reshapes urban airspace with monumental, fluidly moving sculpture that responds to environmental forces including wind, water, and sunlight.
Challenges:
But there was no engineering software to model something porous, and moving...
There was no language to translate this ancient handcrafts...
I didn't know where to begin, but I said "Yes".
We had to create it.
Bringing imagination, to live.
Sharing the re-discovery of wonder.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Amazing wave
This is the 2nd week I am trading with the wave, target with wave.
enter with wave.
There were 2 losing trade, 1 in Gold, 1 in GBP/USD upon the first attempt to short.
There were 1 winning trade on Gold, I took profit at 1L, which last night the market proves to me that Fibonacci level and Power Wave can be amazing, but it is up to me, to decide whether I want to trade until 2nd target or not, and endure a little pain when I see the profit shrank by half, before it touches to my 2nd target.
2nd trade is on GBP/USD, that I see the amazing work of market pattern, the trend cycle and fibonacci levels works perfectly, profit target is reached within 2 days, floating with +200pips now.
I am going to learn, to try to add one more position when GBP/USD rebounces early of next week (13/6-15/6).
My 1st short position were entered at 1.6450, the day high on Thursday (9/6) is 1.6462.
My 2nd short position will be 1.6353, SL 1.6380 (slightly above Friday 10/6 high).
From the chart, 1.6320 would be a more ideal place to short as there's a slight resistance at that level. Em.... Lets see what market can do until Wednesday 15/6.
My 1st short position target were at 1.6205, I plan to adjust to 1.6050.
If market could not rise to 1.6350, I will move target to 1.5950.
I just checked on Daily Chart, EMA triple crossing just happened, and the strong support EMA200 is also on 1.6050 line.
The best thing can happen to GBP/USD waterfall, is GBP/USD meeting 1.5950 (march'11 low).
I am going to learn to capture more, as I promised myself to make my best winning trade 10x my best losing trade in the coming 12 months.
I am a bit excited, and at the same time a bit nervous, observing myself doing this trade.
To date, the best I done is 380pips, which if GBP/USD trade successful, this is a whole range of 400 pips (1.6050) - 500 pips (1.5950).
I am nervous with the profit, I worry that it will run away from me. I am fearful, and doubt my capability in this trade.
At the same time, I am excited, and looking forward to myself, making another high in my trading journal. Marking another milestone in my trading journey.
I wish many associates can benefit from my success.
I believe trading skills can be imparted, from one dedicated Sifu and one sincere Mentor --> to a novice like me.
Success is to be shared, with consistent effort, and patience, champion can be nurtured, can be created, we can be our own champion.
We can create value to others, and we can be happy always.
enter with wave.
There were 2 losing trade, 1 in Gold, 1 in GBP/USD upon the first attempt to short.
There were 1 winning trade on Gold, I took profit at 1L, which last night the market proves to me that Fibonacci level and Power Wave can be amazing, but it is up to me, to decide whether I want to trade until 2nd target or not, and endure a little pain when I see the profit shrank by half, before it touches to my 2nd target.
2nd trade is on GBP/USD, that I see the amazing work of market pattern, the trend cycle and fibonacci levels works perfectly, profit target is reached within 2 days, floating with +200pips now.
I am going to learn, to try to add one more position when GBP/USD rebounces early of next week (13/6-15/6).
My 1st short position were entered at 1.6450, the day high on Thursday (9/6) is 1.6462.
My 2nd short position will be 1.6353, SL 1.6380 (slightly above Friday 10/6 high).
From the chart, 1.6320 would be a more ideal place to short as there's a slight resistance at that level. Em.... Lets see what market can do until Wednesday 15/6.
My 1st short position target were at 1.6205, I plan to adjust to 1.6050.
If market could not rise to 1.6350, I will move target to 1.5950.
I just checked on Daily Chart, EMA triple crossing just happened, and the strong support EMA200 is also on 1.6050 line.
The best thing can happen to GBP/USD waterfall, is GBP/USD meeting 1.5950 (march'11 low).
I am going to learn to capture more, as I promised myself to make my best winning trade 10x my best losing trade in the coming 12 months.
I am a bit excited, and at the same time a bit nervous, observing myself doing this trade.
To date, the best I done is 380pips, which if GBP/USD trade successful, this is a whole range of 400 pips (1.6050) - 500 pips (1.5950).
I am nervous with the profit, I worry that it will run away from me. I am fearful, and doubt my capability in this trade.
At the same time, I am excited, and looking forward to myself, making another high in my trading journal. Marking another milestone in my trading journey.
I wish many associates can benefit from my success.
I believe trading skills can be imparted, from one dedicated Sifu and one sincere Mentor --> to a novice like me.
Success is to be shared, with consistent effort, and patience, champion can be nurtured, can be created, we can be our own champion.
We can create value to others, and we can be happy always.
Friday, June 10, 2011
GBP/USD
Position opened yesterday at 1.6450
floating +120 pips
Moved my stop loss to entry and wait for price target to hit.
Target 1.6205.
Thank God it's Friday again.
Cheers
Ayumi on BlogPress from my iPhone.
floating +120 pips
Moved my stop loss to entry and wait for price target to hit.
Target 1.6205.
Thank God it's Friday again.
Cheers
Ayumi on BlogPress from my iPhone.
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