Saturday, June 25, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

This week add 1 column on US Dollar Index...

USD strengthens against most of its major counterparts, and this is what we call a reversal.
Short term resistance 76.505, Target the bullish strength to continue until 77.00 as 1st target.

Daily candle is bullish, weekly candle is bullish, monthly candle (incomplete, 4 more trading days to go) bullish.

crossing above 77.00, next target will be 78.50.  Imagine this, what will happen to the other major currency pair?  Yes, my dear.  Missing the weekly action on GBP/USD or EUR/USD is ok, because, from a bigger time frame, it has just started....


Thanks to Friday's correction and with Friday closing below 1.4270, EUR/USD is showing a bearish weekly candle and this candlestick pattern indicates more selling pressure.

Weekly Range increased to 400 pips.

Support 1.4072
Suspect EUR/USD to continue trading down to this support on Monday.
and a possible rebound on Tuesday-Wednesday midnight, to 1.4300-350, EUR/USD shall not trade above 1.4400.

Resistance: 1.4300

Trade Short on Monday, Short at 40 pips away from opening price (around 1.4230)
Either close near support 1.4072-080, or close position on Tuesday before 4pm.

I am expecting a rebound around 1.4080 region... If the rebound doesn't happen, add more shorts when this support is broken.  Next, may be in 2 weeks time, we are looking at EUR/USD touching the weekly target 1.3722.


Monthly Candle (incomplete) bearish --- full bodied down bar.

At first I thought EMA200 should hold and pull GBP/USD up for 2-3 days, no, it doesn't happen, and the falling knife is fierce.  Catching Long would be the last word you are going to hear from this market.

but GBP/USD is trading very near to the weekly target of 1.5850 which is my ultimate target for this short.
And well, if you follow since 2 weeks ago, 1.6450, we short, and 1.5850 is the ultimate target.  But I let go of this Golden Chicken that lays golden egg last week.

I though I would be able to enter again.  And... I am too naive.  I have just lost the chance of making this trade work for me.

Quick short, intraday @ 1.6000, SL 1.6050, TG 1.5850.

I believe upon reaching 1.5850, there will be retracement for 4-5 days, max to reach 1.6240 triple top resistance.  Short here.  Note: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) June announcement on 8th July.

If 1.5850 support broken without any sign of retracement, then, 1.5508 is the next BIG move which will happen in the whole month of July.

Gosh, this C wave is Looooooooong.  Trust the wave.

My feedback on the GBP/USD trade:

My Faith in PowerWave is not strong yet, but I see the power.

Stick to trading the wave bring my trading profit to a different level, but this is not an easy job.. because I always fear of losing the profit.  Imagine u watched the account floating 300 pips, and next day, less than 200 pips, clock is ticking, and the profit went to 150 pips, hanging there, and following day back to 300 pips...

2nd challenge is that: my itchy finger wants to short more, but the short position got triggered (at the false break), 2nd short position at BKO is successful (but because I am afraid of being triggered, I moved SL too fast, and miss another 200 pips, try 3rd time add short, triggered (at the triple top).

3rd: due to the failed trades in 2nd challenge, I see the account back to 300 pips.. 350 pips.. and finally let go of the whole trade, without waiting for 1.6050, or ultimate target 1.5850 to hit.

Well, this is a good experience.

And the shit thing is 4th:
After making the money, then I thought I am the queen, high ego, arrogant, stupid, naive and ignorant.
I totally put the good habit aside, and do the same old same old crazy trades.
chasing markets, too much fear, too many opinion, too many charts, and lost focus.

I don't mind of sharing my profit, nor losses, I know I have to go though this, process.
And I am Happy, because, finally, during this great, good, happy, cooling morning, I finally let all out.

I will stick to the rules, hahhaa.... someone called it SOP may be?
I will do it better next time, thanks to the market, that you have yet to ripped off my profit, but teach me a great lesson.

Hope that you like my sharing, I hope everyone can pass the test.

If you are interested, you can go the thread, and this is the journal of the whole GBP/USD trade.
Spotting the opportunity 9th June 2011:
Shorted 10th June 2011:
Construction of the Wave 11th-June-2011:
Position Closed 17th June 2011:
My Forcast after the position closed 19th June 2011:
Thought I am the queen and ignorant trade 22-June-2011:
Totally different direction, and missed the finale 23-June-2011:
My confession 25-June-2011:

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