Monday, July 18, 2011

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Market opened up, which means, the Gold spot market has triggered my SL at $1594.70... it went up to $1597.80 and trading at $1594.78 now.

My forecast is not in sync with the market now.  Strong bull has lead the Gold all the way from $1480 to current $1590 (+$110).

Stay out for the week unless reversal sign formed on 15th day, which is this Friday 22th July 2011, or next Monday 25th July 2011.  Which I don't think the market will immediately reverse and turn down, need a week of consolidation after this strong rally.

Related: Annual target for Gold 1600 - 1620.


Economic Data:
Tue 19 Jul 8:30pm: Building Permit.  Exp 0.61M, Prev 0.61M [USD]
Wed 20 Jul 10pm: Extg Home Sale. Exp 4.93, Prev 4.81 [USD]
Thu 21 Jul 4.30pm: Retail Sales m/m.  Exp 0.5%, Prev -1.4% [GBP]
Thu 21 Jul 8.30pm: Unemployment Claim [USD]
Thu 21 Jul 10pm: Bernanke Testifies, Philly Fed Mfg Index Exp 3.4, Prev -7.7% [USD]

like what I have posted last Friday, I wanted to short GBP/USD around 1.6160 region as long as GBP/USD trading below 1.6200 resistance.

But from the weekly candlestick pattern as well as daily chart, I do not feel like entering last Friday when market shows me twice at 1.6160 - 170.

And after reviewing the weekly and daily chart, I have a feeling that GBP/USD going to test higher above 1.6200, although shorting at current price is correct as per powerwave count...

Which I forecast this way....

If I am wrong, and market continue to trade down below 1.6200, 1st support at 1.6050 (Channel Bottom coincide with Fibo level). Followed by 1.5990.

Related: Friday quick update on GBP/USD:


Fri 22 July 4pm: German Ifo Business Climate Exp 113.7, Prev 114.5

Resisted below 1.4200.
Short term support 1.4050 (channel bottom)

Similarly, if market resisted below 1.4200, it will continue bias down this week, towards target price 1.3950.
Long term view is bearish (until mid August), major support 1.3550 - 1.3500.

What is Ifo?
Information and Forschung (Ifo)

What does this measure?
Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers;

Why care?
This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release. Source changed series from a base year of 2000 to a base year of 2005 as of May 2011;

Trader measure?
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

Derived via?
Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months;

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