Monday, July 4, 2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Wow, it is a strongest week in wall street and DJIA has posted a gain of 648 points (+5.4%) in a week! This is the best weekly performance in two years (since July 2009).

Last week, Dow not only breakout from the consolidation range 12000-12300, but immediately after the breakout, it pierce up to our target range 12575 (May-11 high) formed 12600 high and settles at 12586. From technical chart, we see a triple crossing to the top indicates strong bull.

It will be a short week for the wall street this week, Monday is US market holiday.

Coming week, on the economic data front, we have:
Wed Jul 6 10:00pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thu Jul 7 8.15pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thu Jul 7 8.30pm Unemployment Claims
Fri Jul 8 8:30pm Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

The trading volume on wall street remain thin, we are 1 week from the reporting season. If the good news continue to pump in, we reckon market to rally towards B: 12781 which is only 195 pts away.

I still hold my bearish view if market resisted below 12780, once market penetrated above 12780, it will go all the way to double top 12875 and invalidate my wave labeling. From there we shall see DJIA approach to 13000 like my DJIA team leader wccm forecasted earlier.

My idea is:
With triple crossing and Greek data, the bullish sentiment will continue, although the market has hit 2L from bottom, but the strength shall die at maximum 12700, short term trade is good for Long, but monitor the price action near 12700-800, if DJIA posted a reversal candlestick pattern, I will not hesitate but SHORT, 1st target exit 12400.

Nasdaq 100

Bounce off 200 days Moving Average, triple crossing and Close at 2362, indicate strong bull.
Nasdaq 100 shall rally towards 2374.
Breaking above 2374, next target 2400-2403.

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