DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I had a conversation with a master coach who also traded the DJIA.
Pheeeewit, awesome trade last week.  I wish all also collected the profit already like he did.

DJIA

DJIA has formed a very perfect V on the Daily Chart, coincide with the EMA crossings, like what we at Ayumi the Novice Trader forecast last week, once DJIA broken below 12520, and fallen below 12300 pretty fast.

DJIA settles at 12147 regions on Friday.

What are we looking forward?
Bearish.

Current support 12080.
Strong support (double bottom) 11880.

Current resistance 12230.
Monday could be a quiet day as many is waiting for the announcement on 2nd August 2011.
Shorting around 12230-250 region is preferred but only trade intraday before the news finally released.

Nasdaq 100

Current Resistance 2378
Current Support 2340
Strong Support 2320

Similar to last week, since Nasdaq 100 didn't fulfill the perfect setup for short, but generally the outlook is bearish and Nasdaq 100 is currently being resisted below 2378.

Although shorting is preferred, but due to the whipsaw, suggest to only short near 2378 - 2381 region.

If Nasdaq 100 breaks above 2388, abandon short.

Passion and Objectives

Past week has been a challenging week.
Finally closed the biggest sale of the year, need to manage 4 days of dance life, need to alter my competition costume, need to monitor the market because many news are popping out!

And next week, the final week for my preparation!
My dress are done this morning from 2am - 6am, all sequins *blink* *blink* done, my wrist band done, I headed back to bed after breakfast with mum.

It is another cool Sunday afternoon.

What to do today?
On the trading / financial side:
1. Weekly forecast, DJIA, Gold, Favorite FX Pair.
2. Monthly Report, GBP/USD
3. Reading~~
On the dancing and art side:
4. Choreograph the tabla song for Advanced Category competition.
5. Watch more videos for ideas and admiring the belly dance superstars :)
And yes... I aim to win. This Asia Pacific Dance X'plosion is boliling!
Dancers out there, click this link: http://www.joyclub.com.my/
Friendship & Biz
6. Celebrate Simon's Birthday, Foo Rong's birthday, Master Gathring today!

Lets get it started!

US Debt Vote

US Debt Vote delayed, VIX jumps to 23% (highest since June 2011).
Market continues to slide. The Dow has slid for 5th straight days.

Wall Street suffered fresh losses as Congress struggled to break its long gridlock. The Dow has fallen five straight days because of worries that the U.S. might default on its debt if Congress doesn't raise the country's borrowing limit. It's down more than 484 points, or 3.8 percent. Just five days remain until the Treasury Department says the government won't have enough money to cover all of its bills. Even if the U.S. doesn't default, investors worry that the country might lose its triple-A credit rating. That could raise interest rates and possibly slow the U.S. economy, which is still recovering from the worst recession in decades.

Read more at: ProfitNDTV.com

EUR/USD

Forecast EUR/USD to bounce off from this low 1.4252.
If can break above current resistance 1.4350, then will go higher 1.4450, 1.4550.

Related post: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/07/weekly-forecast-fx_26.html

GBP/USD

fulfilled fibo retracement entry, but my order just got expired again. >.<
Will queue to short again today at 1.6370 region - 1.6400, SL 1.6437.

Dollar Index

Update after yesterday's posting....

Happy cuz yesterday forecast is right and my favourite GBP/USD has came down.
Dollar index is travelling up to test the resistance as posted in my chart.
Either head up to 74.50, or 74.80 to fulfill fibonacci retracement level before it continue to come down for the week ahead.

Yesterday daily candle is very bullish for Dollar Index.

however, today I expect a little pull up to resistance, then pull back down to 74.00 region.

Lets look at GBP/USD:

Recap what I have done in my weekly forecast:

Resistance 1.6440, forecast the market to continue going up towards this resistance, , unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.

Once 1.6468 has been taken out, expect GBP/USD to go further up to 1.6550 (May-31 high).

Weekly forecast on FX
Related Chart GBP/USD here

Expect a little pull back today and my trade plan:
Short at 1.6400 region, SL 1.6437 (yesterday high).
I have also set an alert at 1.6374, I will observe for reversal sign when market is trading at this level.

Dollar Index

Short Term view: bearish turn bullish
Duration: from now until lunch hour (GMT+8) before London open.

Last Done: 73.69
Target: 73.90, 74.40.
Note: ATR 60 pips.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Important Fundamentals that will affect the global market:
Raising the debt ceiling, or downgrade?
Or, austerity measures, cutting budgets, increase tax?

If cutting budgets, and increase tax, then Gold might need to face the imminent, or "reckless" fall.

提高债限，抑或面对违约危机？下调信贷评级？
如果最终的美国预算协议包括大幅削减开支和增税,或两者皆有,则黄金价格可能骤然下挫.

GBP/USD

Resistance 1.6440, forecast the market to continue going up towards this resistance, , unless market break above 1.6468, I will be hunting for short.

Once 1.6468 has been taken out, expect GBP/USD to go further up to 1.6550 (May-31 high).

EUR/USD

It has broken away from the trendline, and I am bullish on EUR/USD.
Although fundamentally I do not agree with the bullishness in EUR/USD, especially on the recent debt issues... but I have to say from the technical chart, the bullish strength will last until next target 1.4550, ultimate target 1.4900.

Weekly Updates

Sorry that I am not able to put up my weekly forecast this week due to the pc migration...

I have purchased a set of new toy, and was busy setting up, doing data migration and installation of data terminals...

So by now, almost everything is up, and seems moving :)

Will try to update more tonight, stay tuned!

 My new toys~

doing data migration~~~

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

I am still hunting for shorting opportunity in DJIA, however, I will abandon the plan if DJIA can close this week above 12875.

This way DJIA would have posted a very bullish sign on Monthly Chart, and will continue to rally towards new high 13000, or May-2008 high 13130 region.

However, the inflationary figures, job market, trade deficit, budget, debt default... these fundamentals doesn't really suggest a long term uptrend... to me this simply doesn't synchronize with the chart, yet.

I am worried that the imminent crash will hurt many families... the market will turn out to be in a very bad shape... :(

Short term trading, stay out.

From Daily Chart, 12753 (July-7) is the left top, and 12750 (last thursday July-21) is the right top.
I reckon market to make a new high this week, but to be resisted below 12875 region.
However, if market continue to be resisted below 12750, upon breaking below 12520 temporary support, DJIA will go south towards strong support 12300 pretty fast.

Watching the intraday chart for opportunity and confirmation.

Nasdaq 100

Technical chart suggest strong bull in Nasdaq 100, it has broken above all highs... formed a series of higher lows... While general rule says, upon breaking the all time high, we can enter long, but I would not do so in current market condition...

"The market still has a high degree of skepticism in it," said Nick Kalivas, an analyst at MF Global in Chicago, summing up the earnings season so far.

This week is also a big week for economic data, since we have missed the train to the moon, I suggest we stay out from Nasdaq 100 but watch carefully when the opportunity resurface.

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Transaction

Short GBP/USD last night at 1.6149, SL 1.6179, TG 1.6009.
Floating +33 pips.

Short CL (September-11) last night at 9775 SL 9815 (triggered stop loss)
Realised - 40 ticks

Queue to short CL (September-11) just now at 9964, SL 9990, TG 9660.
Pending.

CL on 19-July-2011

CL outlook:
Daily Chart: Consolidation.
Short term (1 Hour Chart): Bullish, towards 97.50
If managed to break above 97.75, then CL might go all the way to 99.20-40 resistance area.

Favour Short upon reaching 97.50, or 99.20 resistance.

Target exit at support 96.00, 94.50, ultimate 93.55-93.35 major support.

GBP/USD on 19-July-2011

Touch touch, bounce bounce! :)

4 Hour chart shows support, and .... action! :)

Daily Chart:

Seems like everything is in order.... ^___^ flipping back to my weekly forecast, I am Happy :)

Not gonna long now, bcz, I am still waiting for the best seat for the next Leg~ Down!

1.6160 will be the first resistance now, which is the usual 100 pips profit from this 4 Hour chart action for GBP/USD.

Next, expect market to consolidate, and lets see whether GBP/USD manage to break above 1.6192 (previous week high) and make a new top at 1.6250.

Related: My Weekly Forecast [http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/07/weekly-forecast-fx_18.html]
Chart [Weekly Forecast - Daily] [Weekly Forecast - 4 Hour]

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Gold
Market opened up, which means, the Gold spot market has triggered my SL at $1594.70... it went up to $1597.80 and trading at $1594.78 now.

My forecast is not in sync with the market now.  Strong bull has lead the Gold all the way from $1480 to current $1590 (+$110).

Stay out for the week unless reversal sign formed on 15th day, which is this Friday 22th July 2011, or next Monday 25th July 2011.  Which I don't think the market will immediately reverse and turn down, need a week of consolidation after this strong rally.

Related: Annual target for Gold 1600 - 1620.
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/04/gold-and-silver-on-4-apr-2011-mon.html
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-and-silver-on-mon-7-mar-2011.html

GBP/USD

Economic Data:
Tue 19 Jul 8:30pm: Building Permit.  Exp 0.61M, Prev 0.61M [USD]
Wed 20 Jul 10pm: Extg Home Sale. Exp 4.93, Prev 4.81 [USD]
Thu 21 Jul 4.30pm: Retail Sales m/m.  Exp 0.5%, Prev -1.4% [GBP]
Thu 21 Jul 8.30pm: Unemployment Claim [USD]
Thu 21 Jul 10pm: Bernanke Testifies, Philly Fed Mfg Index Exp 3.4, Prev -7.7% [USD]

like what I have posted last Friday, I wanted to short GBP/USD around 1.6160 region as long as GBP/USD trading below 1.6200 resistance.

But from the weekly candlestick pattern as well as daily chart, I do not feel like entering last Friday when market shows me twice at 1.6160 - 170.

And after reviewing the weekly and daily chart, I have a feeling that GBP/USD going to test higher above 1.6200, although shorting at current price is correct as per powerwave count...

Which I forecast this way....

If I am wrong, and market continue to trade down below 1.6200, 1st support at 1.6050 (Channel Bottom coincide with Fibo level). Followed by 1.5990.

Related: Friday quick update on GBP/USD:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/07/quick-update_15.html

EUR/USD

Fri 22 July 4pm: German Ifo Business Climate Exp 113.7, Prev 114.5

Resisted below 1.4200.
Short term support 1.4050 (channel bottom)

Similarly, if market resisted below 1.4200, it will continue bias down this week, towards target price 1.3950.
Long term view is bearish (until mid August), major support 1.3550 - 1.3500.

What is Ifo?
Information and Forschung (Ifo)

What does this measure?
Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers;

Why care?
This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release. Source changed series from a base year of 2000 to a base year of 2005 as of May 2011;

Trader measure?
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

Derived via?
Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months;

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

US Economic data releases http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1310256000&do=displayweek&month=7&year=2011

In short...
Worse than Expected: Trade Balance
Worse than Expected: Core Retail Sales m/m
Worse than Expected: PPI
Worse than Expected: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Match Expectation: Nil

Better than Expected: Retail Sales m/m
Better than Expected: Unemployment Claims
Better than Expected: Core CPI m/m

Summary:
Mixed Data... DJIA has been trading down to our weekly support 12450. Lowest 12410, Closed at 12483.

Like what we forecasted last week, DJIA can either go up to 12780 resistances, or find support at 12450.

From technical chart, DJIA has posted a weak Japanese candlestick pattern on Weekly Chart. This Indicate a possible downturn to 12320 1st support, if the policy maker stop printing money or the like.

For those who trade with patterns, zoom out to Weekly Chart and we can see a Head and Shoulder Pattern (slanted up), with the right shoulder formed and confirmed within these 2 weeks.

Those who missed the short call last week, don’t despair, don’t short immediately.
For those who are sharp, you will observe that DJIA is supported at EMA50 (4 Hour chart), therefore, I foresee DJIA to continue trading up on Monday.

Weekly Short action: Short when market traded up to 12570 – 12620 region.

Monday sell action 12570 SL 40 index points, close EOD.
Don’t buy immediately either :)
Monday buy action 12398 SL 40 index points, close EOD.

I like DJIA to melt… :ops: if DJIA can break below 12320, it is only the beginning.  If what we assumed is right, DJIA will be trading down to 12250, and 12000, soon.


Nasdaq 100

Difference: Nasdaq 100 do not have Head and Shoulder pattern :)

4 Hour EMA50 support has shown some bull, it is possible to continue the bullish sentiment from current 2357 to 2370.

Nasdaq 100 Resistance at 2375-2380 region.
Major Support for the week: 2300.

From the technical chart, my preference is to trade DJIA rather than Nasdaq 100, therefore, suggest to stay out from Nasdaq 100, if still want to trade, only trade when Nasdaq approach major support / resistance for the week.

Transaction

CL 3rd short @ 9606 filled.

Holding Two Opened positions now. Moved both Stop loss to 9600.


Once market break yesterday low 9450 I'll add another short.

Target 9380.

Cheers
Ayumi on BlogPress from my iPhone.

Quick Update

It will be a quick one, again :)

GBP/USD

Cable resisted at 1.6200 still....
Yesterday I queue to short at 1.6160, but order was not filled.
This morning GBP/USD crossed above 1.6160 and I am thinking twice...

Lets look at Daily Chart, the pattern repeat... and... should GBP/USD continue to be suppressed under 14/7 high 1.6192, or it is gonna make a false break to 1.6280 and come down?

I am hunting for the next Big move, I am getting excited since yesterday, and observing my patience... I want to catch the fall like last round at 1.6450.

It is Friday, and today is a crucial day, I reckon the market to either:
1. resisted below 1.6200 or;
2. form another top near 1.6280,
then close below 1.6030 to form a another bearish candle on weekly chart, daily chart, and next week a continuous pattern.

I hope it is today, but not Monday.

Observe intraday chart for the shorting opportunity.

CL

Trading the August Contract and covered short @ 9546 happy with 300 pips / cents, leaving with 1 open position.
Queue to short again @ 9610, SL 9656, TG 9386.

p/s:
The moment I finish this journal, I actually ordered to sell GBP/USD at 1.6255, SL 1.6287, TG 1.6002.

2nd CL trade, and finally :)

Trade small



Testing temporary support.




Trading August contract, will log in to the broker platform and move SL later.

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction (FX)

Hi all, the cable has shown some weakness this morning and I expect the market to turn down from here to temp support 1.60000-1.6050.

from smaller time frame (30 minutes) we saw a weakness formation and struggle.

Intraday trade: I queue to short at 1.6160, SL 1.6192 (-35 pips), Target 1.6052 (+105 pips).
If market successfully break below 1.6050, next target 1.5980.

If market triggered my stop loss, which means breaking yesterday high, GBP/USD is going to 1.6300 region.

Transactions (FX)

Intraday, morning session:
Long GBP/USD
1.5910 SL 30 pips, TG 90 pips.

Hunting for Short!
1.6010 SL 30 pips, TG 1.5850.

if failed, next Short!
1.6105 SL 30 pips, TG 1.5850.

EUR/USD temporary supported at Daily EMA200, waiting for pull back to enter short near 1.4200.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Friday Reversal and Monday Confirmation.

Check the chart from Bigger Time Frame to Smaller Time Frame...

YM (mini Dow $5 Futures) 4 Hour Chart:

YM already corrected 1/3 from last up-move, the correction is sharp.
And it is trading near EMA50 (4 Hour) support.


DJIA 30 Min Chart:

Similar price action. but 4 Hour chart yet to see support.  Support current low 12475.  Resistance 12615.


YM (mini Dow $5 Futures) 30 Min Chart:

Therefore, suspect today a little bit of pull up, and I favour to trade both sides.

Long @ 12470 (near low), SL 12424, TG 12600.
Short @ 12672, SL 12718, TG 12500.