Sunday, June 9, 2013

FX Updates

I am thrilled...

Look at the gravity..

USD/JPY
Daily Chart

USD/JPY
4 Hour Chart

The Yen currency has devalued to a point where a correction is needed.
I think USD/JPY still have range to fall, towards 93.00.

However, any fundamental changes would help to end this correction early.
I forecast market to resume uptrend to 104.20, and 106.30 after correction.


USDX

Take a look at US Dollar Index Daily Chart..


Market has fallen to EMA200, and some slim shadow over here... hope EMA200 (gold dash-dot line) work as a net - for USDX to bounce off to 82.00 then 82.70.

I reckon a sideways bias up movement for USDX.

Forecast market to resume downtrend after this bounce, towards 81.00 then 80.00 before July 2013.







DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 10 June 2013

Market has come to a pattern which many reversal traders like to participate.

Weekly Chart:
After two reversal candlestick pattern in mid May and end of May 2013, market fall for 299 pts last week and closed above the weekly opening.



Daily Chart:
It is exciting to see market found support at 1/3 fibo level strongly, and rebounded - can I say uptrend is likely to continue?

Check the first correction in April 2013, and current correction - I hope it will be a guide if you are bullish.
Take precaution as on weekly chart, there is a lower low, and relatively lower high, if market breaking below 14,843 pts this month, bear will take control and send DJIA down to 14750, 14650 pts.



From intraday chart, I could do a quick forecast for coming trading day (Monday).

Bullish day candle shall sends DJIA higher but limit to 15310 pts resistant.
strong resistance 15400.
Breaking above 15400 pts I would abandon hunting short but watch closely how market break recent high to reach 15850 pts.

from 4 Hour chart, EMA50 has turned from resistance to a fighting line between bull and bear.
I prefer to trade at extreme ends.

Short 15290 pts, close EOD.
Long 15010 pts, close EOD.

Nasdaq 100

From intraday chart, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA pattern is slightly contradicting..

from 4 Hour chart, based on the candlestick pattern, I am a strong believer Nasdaq 100 would continue going down.

Rooftop resistance 3000 pts.

Support 2945
TG 2890

If Nasdaq100 were to go north, it must break above 3000 pts this week, and stay above 3030 pts for rest of this month.

Cheers
Ayumi

Long black Long white

Long black or Americano,
Commonly found in Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.
Double shot Espresso, over hot water.

Long black
Long black is more strongly flavored.
(Water first, Espresso second)

Americano
(Espresso first, water second)

So, JPY has a long tailed white candle, that's the idea of this blog title.  (^_^)



Time to start my weekend project.

Well, I am not having a Long black now, but today, this house blend from Starbucks + Chocolate Tuxedo Cake is a luxury.

What's Starbucks House Blend?
Check this out: http://www.starbucksstore.com/house-blend/VM_HOUSE,default,pd.html



Cheers
Ayumi

Thursday, June 6, 2013

DJIA Update 6-Jun-2013


DJIA has came down to 14900 region, 1L target hit within 2 days. It's fast.

Reckon market to take a break with some sideways movement within 14900 - 15120.
Sideways to test resistance level (which was the BKO level) at 15120.

Check yesterday's DJIA update for future target levels.





- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Nice fall Usd/JPY

Resisted below 103




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA update on 5-Jun-2013

EMA50 (4H) work very nice tonight.
Position closed with ATR(9) 135 pts within 1 candle (4H).


Resistance 15260 pts
Stochastic is relatively low now, market might go thru a series of swing.
Preferably resisted below 15250 to confirm reversal down.
Target 14900 pts, ultimate target 14750 pts. 

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

DJIA update 2013-06-04

DJIA ends at session high.
It didnt come down as forecast.

Overhead resistance 15280.
Break above 15300 and stay above to resume uptrend,
Or resisted below to continue correction.



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Monday, June 3, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 3-Jun-2013

DJIA

Its bearish, but does this candle represent anything for US?
Well, it has hit 3L (blue) target or a 4L (orange) target near 15500 pts.
and formed a reversal candlestick pattern, followed by a bearish candle this week.

Let's take some clue from Dec'2012 (6 months ago), this pattern has formed after a series of positive candle, it wasn't an all time high, and market continue to skyrocket, it could be a history repeating by itself.

Stock market, one direction..  Up... Fed policy causing it?

Last week, Economic Data, positive.
Consumer confidence above expectation.
Unemployement Claims risen.

Take a look at Daily Chart.
When we look further, we have better idea of where the market is leading us.
With this bearish engulfing pattern, we are pretty sure market is going to suffer more loss this coming Monday.

I would prefer to trade with initial shadow on Monday, short at 30 pts above opening.
SL 50 pts, TG 150 pts.

Market could possibly find support near 15000 pts, but attempt to dive down to 14900 pts.
Target 14750 pts -- strong support.

Just in case market repeats by itself, some fundamental changes (like, fed decision) would lead DJIA back on track to resume uptrend.
Resistance 15530 pts (black)(batman head),
breaking above 15530 ptrs means DJIA could go all the way towards 15850 pts.

Personally, I would love to place short entry on Monday.
Short at 30 pts above opening.
SL 50 pts, TG 150 pts, TG2 14900, TG3 14750 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Refer to my last post on 27-May, I really hope  that market could  touch 3070.
Nope.

It works quite similar to Dow.


but we do not have bearish engulfing.
So again, I am less bearish. :-P

For short term trading, I guess I would end up entering Short entry near 3005 pts, SL 3020 (again!), TG 2885 pts.


For the weekly position I would hunt to short near 3015-3020 pts, SL 10 pts above , TG 2945 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Learn from Losing

Nasdaq 100 on last day of the month.

I initiated a short trade.
Based on the understanding of the end of the consolidation, from a smaller time frame.

I am not a master of trend line.. I don't trade with plotting a new diagonal lines then call them support / resistance, that's not me, but the pattern does suggest a little consolidation and it might end soon.  This is what I see.

while it might have a little range to go up, I wanted to bet on the shorting opportunity.

Market Entry initiated.
SL near previous high. 3020.

Obviously, like the trend line I set earlier.. market did has some range to go, and it reached highest 3023.
Before coming down, dive even below my short trade target.

Overall, this is what happened.

I am 1-2 hours early to enter to this short trade.
Did I make a mistake?
How do I time more accurately, how to improve?

Please enlighten me if you have any.

Monday, May 27, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 27 May 2013

DJIA Weekly Chart

its amazing to see how the fibo numbers working out... I plotted these since early of the year.

DJIA has hit 15550 levels and formed a reversal candlestick pattern on weekly chart.
Current support 15250 pts.

DJIA Daily Chart

Daily chart heavy swing.
Support 15150 pts.


DJIA 4H Chart


If market break below 15150 pts, it will turn resistance to go south towards 15000.
Strong Support 15000 pts.

This week's view: slight bearish.

Might consider using Fibo Range for this week.

Trade Setup: Fibo Range
Sell : 15,440 pts
SL: 15,480 pts
TG: 15,330 pts, 15,250 pts

Buy: 15,270 pts
SL: 15,230 pts
TG: 15,380 pts, 15,440 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow.  Market formed an early reversal candlestick pattern.
But it is less bearish compare to Dow.

I reckon market to continue surging higher towards 3,070 pts before turning down.
Resistance 3,050 pts
Support 2,960 pts

Current support : 2,997 pts which is also the daily initial shadow entry level.

Fibo Range
Buy: 2,980 pts, SL 2970 pts, TG 3,010 pts, 3,020 pts.
Sell: 3,020 pts, SL 3,030 pts, TG 2,990 pts, 2,980 pts.


Friday, May 24, 2013

GBP/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Weekly Chart

The weekly candle is showing some possible reversal if GBP/USD stays above 1.5100 for the week.

Day Chart
Potential reversal in GBP/USD is less promising compare to EUR/USD.



Breaking below 1.5000 will continue plunge down to 1.4800.

EUR/USD on Fri 24-May-2013

Up or Down?

I favour down...
But I don't discount the possibility to go up to 1.3200 if EUR/USD successfully break above 1.3000 resistance today.




Monday, May 20, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


for the week starting 20 May 2013

There have been some good economic data releases such as unemployment rate drops, better than expected growth numbers.
Over the weekend I did a quick survey on the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which is an important indicator for inflation of the economy.  It seems that, along with a monthly 85 Billion bond purchase program, the economy didn't inflate much... either the eurozone debt crisis has dampen the supply, or indirectly it implies the market is still weak.

However, stock market is bullish, DJIA has risen above our target level of 15250 pts.

DJIA last done 15350 pts.
And we forecast market to continue the bullish sentiments.

There are some rumours about the Fed might consider cutting down the bond purchase program, or the MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) as we continue seeing good numbers from job market, the decision from Fed, or the next policy review shall fall in mid/end of June 2013.

Most likely the bullish sentiment shall continue and we are looking toward 15550 pts.

Support 15300 pts
Strong Support 15200 pts
Resistance 15350 pts
Target 15550 pts

Saturday, May 18, 2013

How much to produce a 2000 words article...?

Since my contribution in the magazine, I have been writing 1000 words...

My first attempt of writing 2000 words, I need to read a lot more than I have ever imagined.
In such a short period of time.

Find all analysis, fundamental data.. quoting the source..
Thanks to internet, thanks to Google, thanks to many researchers and analyst who shared their opinions.

I learned a lot from writing.
Because, to write, I have to read...
Because, I learned a lot from reading your good articles.

Bloomberg, CNN, Reuters, CFTC, UK, US, Euro...
EUR, GBP, USD, JPY.

Time to off from FX.
Time for indices.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Keynote Speech, Day 2


SaaS is gaining popularity here in Malaysia, when we talk about cloud, people start to understand us better, thanks to Apple Inc, I think they educate us with free cloud experience and his cool mobile gadget – iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, etc. (obviously, I am an apple fan).

I watched the live webcast of the keynote speech by NetSuite CTO last night.
NetSuite – World #1 Business Suite on Cloud, #1 Cloud ERP.

For the first time, in 10 months, I get to see Evan Goldberg in a live performance.  I get to see his face, listen to his voice, and I get to meet his wife, met CEO Zach Nelson.

We are one of the partner with NetSuite in Malaysia.  We are a special company, since our joint venture, we have SaaS, Infrastructure, Hardware, On-Premise solution, Data Center, and Software Development.

I am looking forward to the user experience overhaul in future releases.
I am looking forward to the mobile app ver 2 which will be released in months.

Monday, May 13, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 13-May-2013

US labour market data showed a steady recovery boosting the dollar, causing the drop of gold price to $1430.

Last week Dow has shot another record high closing since 2008, DJIA surpassed 15,000 pts.
This week we foresee DJIA to find support around 14,950 - 15,000 pts and continue to advance further towards 15,250 pts.

Daily Trading:
Enter long when market is testing 15,000 pts, target exit 15,150 pts.
Daily Resistance 15,160 pts.

Nasdaq 100
Similarly for Nasdaq 100
Support 2945-50 pts,
Resistance 2985-2990 pts.

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Resume... Ayumi update

I was quite bothered with Malaysia General Election.
Was following the news on TV, postings on social media.
And .. failed to allocate time for trading and forecast.

After a week of ''rehab'', I will resume with my regular postings.

Last week was a fun filled week.

Debt Free

I managed to cancel my 3rd credit card, Citibank Cash Back Platinum (Visa), RHB Platinum (Master), Standard Chartered Gold (Visa).
And called HSBC to cancel my card application.

Leaving me with UOB One Card (Visa) + UOB Lady's Card (Master) and Citibank Clear Card (Master)
Lady's Card is cool (Read more).

I enjoy the lowest credit limit from both banks.

Relieved.

Career Expansion

Work

The new team, is smaller.
As I blog earlier... [Related Post]
I doubted whether the new team would be as open as what and how I used to enjoy.

Pros:
Effective Team
Assertive Super Sales Girl (wow, she is really classic, she is assertive, but she is not offensive, I like her!)
I get more chance to configure the system for product demo, I get more exposures to solutions, and the senior consultant, he is helpful (I couldn't say I like him, but, he gave me a totally opposite personality now)

I heard that he was aggressive, crafty.
After joining the team, I can understand his pain better, and there's no way a normal person could handle situation as such, without showing much anger or resentment.  He gained my respect as a senior application consultant, the pioneer of NetSuite in KL (as far as I know of).

Dance

Finally we met!

I started learning dance from this academy, and you know, when I am given a choice to return to this academy, to teach, I feel glad.

After months and months of postpone, schedule and reschedule, we met!
The principal shared much of her experience and expectation with me.

I admire her, she kept her carefree personality, take tough things easily, responsible, even though she has to face many sakai (crazy kids), adults, and instructors..

We are starting up 3 new classes for kids bellydance.
Not one, hello.  She planned 3 classes.

"Keeping my Saturday free", this rule has been compromised.
I value this relationship, I value the opportunity, and more importantly, I want to learn to communicate with kids.

Review

Life has been good, it is a good year.  It is going to be a good year, as long as I keep my commitment.
Be Strong, Be consistent. 7 months to go.  I know I can do it.

I passed my debt crisis, now I regained my freedom, I understands, I was silly.
From this period of life, I learned an important lesson,
people who are suffering, may not feel suffer.
the process to fight for freedom may not be as tough as it seems.
Be considerate.  Take it easy.  If you want to solve a problem, be patient, do it with your heart.

Believe in God.

I read something great today:
Don't underestimate people in pain,
some may be good hiding them.


Thursday, May 2, 2013

Labour Day Holiday

Its 2nd May 2013 now, 3 days to 13th General Election (GE13) in Malaysia.

I get to read and watch some videos online.
And I read a few blogs.
I am casting my vote this Sunday.

I like:
颜江瀚 Gan Jiang Han
Valyn Lim
Valyn Lim - 我,人民的声音
Entering Into Politics, the Story Behind by 杨美盈 Yeo Bee Yin


Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Iron Man 3

Watched this last night.
Great mind, we have vulnerable part too.

http://entertainment.inquirer.net/91979/going-back-to-basics-tony-stark-shows-vulnerability-in-iron-man-3

Like.

I have completed 7 days detox program, will blog my experience later.