Monday, November 5, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Forum is not available… I will resume my weekly posting when forum is accessible.

Went to Southgate, KL, on Sunday morning and danced for 3 hours learning fan veil.  Flip, flip, flip!  When the workshop is over, I can only see my fingers shivering - been holding a fan with 1.8 meters of silk material, flip them in the air, turn and dance.

They look graceful, and dancers need time to develop the right grace – holding the fan the right angle, holding them the right direction (forward or back of our hands), keeping them above the ground, and keep our body still.

Tired, but glad I learned this after 4 years.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 Update for week Starting 5-Nov-2012

DJIA

Last week markets were closed Monday Tuesday marking the first two-day weather-related shutdown since 1888.  Sandy the Hurricane destroy businesses, households, and critical infrastructure –might be the clue to next market direction.

US employers hired more than forecast (123k) in October 2012 – payroll expanded by 171,000 following 148,000 gain in September.  Unemployment rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9%.  Thomson Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose last month to the highest level in 5 years (since before recession).

Election next week Tuesday-Wednesday, trade or not trade?

My opinion: Fundamentals is the underlying force of market direction, technical forecast could forecast price based on historical, pattern, support, resistance and time… when in doubt, stay out.

Technical Analysis

Market settle at 13093.16 pts last Friday (-139.46 pts), posted another black doji on Weekly Chart.

(1)    could be another long body black candle down.
(2)    Go down to test 13000 support, rebound, and trade higher within these two weeks’ trading range capped below 13,3580 pts.

Daily Chart:
Market tested 13,000 pts last week, this is also EMA200 on Daily chart, after Friday’s black candle, we expect market to test this support again, if market came down but didn’t revisit 13000, we shall have a nice upwave. Otherwise, once it fall to 12950, all the way to 12800 pts.



4 Hour Chart:

Market is trading around EMA50 support which a rebound is likely after testing 12992 (red horizontal line).
To be precise, market should rebound before touching 12992, and it will have the potential to reverse up immediately.

However, if market break below 12992 pts, then we forecast market to fall towards 12800 level.

Personally I prefer market to form new low, but above 12992 pts and start to rebound up towards tg1 13350, then tg2 13530 pts.


Nasdaq 100

I was fortunate to take profit below 2700 before market had a big hit last Friday.

From weekly chart, market has retraced 66% from recent upwave since June 2012.
2630-2640 is a good support level if market were to perform similar to DJIA.

Strong Support 25/10/12 (2611 pts) should not be broken, and if market rebound before testing 2630 – 2640 pts, we could expect market to revisit 2700, then 2750 pts.

Lets say market break below 2640 pts, and break below 2611, we could expect support near 2585 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

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