Sunday, July 14, 2013

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 15-July-2013

Am chillin' out at starbucks while beginning my week.
Sunday is a good start except, the aircond blower is getting strong when it is passing 1pm.

I am listening to "If I should Love Again" by Nina, from the Album: Nina feat. the Hits of Barry Manilow.
It's the first time I hear the bass detail via my new toy ~ "BassBuds".

I did quite a number of thing this morning, went to church (although being late), ate the banana chocolate muffin in Starbucks (and contributed 15% to charity), bought a limited edition tumbler, successfully edited a song for my belly-kids (using freeware Audacity).

This morning is just wonderful.

Those who follow my blog knows that I have turned from short to long.
when DJIA break above point B (15350 pts), and Nasdaq 100 has definitely made new high, finally hit 3,070 pts like I mentioned earlier, and gave up earlier.
Related Post:
27-May-2013 when I am convinced Nasdaq 100 gonna make it...
3-June-2013 when I think Nasdaq 100 is not going to tough 3070

Deceived, and made changes too often..
How come our pro-traders are so sure that market is not turning down back then?
There are many questions, and there are many more to learn.

Well, pro-traders, and seasoned traders are smart, and wise.

I am lucky, even though with different market opinion, I did not lose money these two months, instead made some.


Weekly Chart:
Reaching Higher
Breaking above 1550 soon
and next 15850 pts.

Daily Chart:
Bearish candlestick pattern last Friday might push DJIA down to 15,280 pts, a likely rebound might seen if market were to go towards strong support at 15180 pts.

You find that my point B has not been taken out from the daily chart and the Friday candlestick pattern suggested many resistance at this point.

If market is not going to break 15,550 pts, I am still a strong believer of downturn.
If yes, market break above this level 15,550 pts, then 15,850 pts it goes.

I will prefer to short on Monday.
Initial shadow 15490 pts.
Fibo range 15500 pts
SL 15550 pts
TG 15370 pts

If market continue to fall to 15180 pts (Strong support indicated in daily chart),
and if market show support either 15280 or 15180, I would go long.

If ... market go lower, rebound with convincing pattern (may be Tuesday):
Long 15280 pts
SL 15230 pts
TG 15450 pts.

This is what I forecast for early of the week:

Nasdaq 100

Hit 3070 level (forecast in May 2013).
This is a New high in Nasdaq 100, from the technical chart, this means bullish and it is going to hit  higher.
Next target 3092.

View: Bullish.

If you planted some gung-ho seeds in me, I might want to enter long with initial shadow 3062 pts, but erm...
It is contradicting with my DJIA forecast, and I have no trade preference in this market -- give me an Asahi may be I would do it.

Strong Support 3,020 pts.


1 comment:

  1. Last week Bernanke has two contradicting statement to public.
    1) he says recovery is good, might reduce QE / bond purchase program from Q3 onwards, and increase interest rate next year (2014)

    this causes US dollar index surged in one day , up 2 basis point.

    money withdrawn from overseas investment and returned to US market.

    2) next few days, he gave a speech and says
    "recovery not as expected, we still need QE to boost economy"

    almost immediately the money flow out from US market and return to those BRIC / developing countries.