DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA has posted a big long black candle last week.

never expect during the last few trading week we could have this type of market movement.
A new trading buddy AS, he has a breakthrough over this trading system, his trading system is able to tell whether we will have a breakout tonight or not.

combine with other 2 system he has, he has the target price, entry price, and either Long, or Short.
this is amazing...

but still, more is up!  He is going to use Mathlab to program his system, mathlab - this application is for engineer to design and model.. what type of enthusiastic trader on earth could come out with this idea?

He said this is not new to professional traders, oh man, this is new to me.
Mad scientist - he is crazy, and he is the only one person i know one this land who is doing this everyday, and he is always hungry to learn thing, and to make his trading system complete.

clap clap to AS.

back back back to DJIA.

31 Dec 2012, last Monday in year 2012.
We have so many unanswered question over fiscal policy, tax increase and spending cuts, is US going to get over it?  I am quite pessimistic, but I am also curious of what our creative US government and Federal Reserves could do about it.

Last Friday, DJIA has fall and close below EMA200.
From 4 hour chart, the inner wave has hit 3L.

Technical Analysis

Bearish sentiment could halt during Asian hour, and hopefully DJIA could retrace up to 12960 pts.
If market is suspended below 12960, and didn't breakup strong resistance 13080 pts, we might see market going south to hit 4L or even 5L target.


4L target = 12660 pts
5L target = 12500 pts

If there's good news, or any positive announcement from the lawmaker, market would swing up - anyhow it is going to be volatile.

Since I am pessimist, I will go short at any of these resistance level, preferable near strong resistance 13080 pts, it would then for another classic example of EMA50 in 4 Hour chart.
Fingers crossed.

Nasdaq 100

the Trend is  bearish, market has break below strong support.

From weekly chart, this is what I forecast:

therefore, for daily trading, i would prefer short until market fall to 2500 pts.

Short at initial shadow around 2580 pts, SL 10 pts away, TG 30 pts (2550).

2013 ……要来了

眼看ForexFactory都已经显示2013年的经济数据报告公布时间，2013年，近了。

明天将是2012年最后一个交易日，写到这里，我不禁感慨时间稍纵即逝。

舞者的经历

2012年我开了总共5班肚皮舞班，见证学生们从posture姿势，到hip drop，然后再慢慢地将舞蹈融入自己的身体。

时而我害怕，时而我感恩；
害怕很快我就不能够负荷他们的求知欲，
感恩有他们一路陪我成长，甚至成为我编舞的实践品。

Ayumi the Novice Trader 的经历

2012年我认真地学好Power Wave，认真地学好我会的技术分析。
而不是一味地追求不同的技术分析。

当然因为舞蹈和工作的关系，今年trading的时间减少了很多。
我让自己适应高time frame的分析，很意外地，我发现自己的表现平稳了，
因为冲动而盲目进场频率减少了。

打工一族的经历

由一间跨国的印度软件公司，小小的销售人员转到Business Consultant -- 也就是从销售的框框跳出来，投入软件的实践。主要工作便是Implementation —— 从公司的运作，到软件的调整，到加以实践。

由于受不了100%软件操作的工作模式，我加入另一家新加坡公司成为销售经理（也只是和衔头，别太在意），看清自己的兴趣及专长以后，我加入另一家更大的跨国公司担任软体预售顾问。

跳槽，本来就是一件很普通的事情。一年跳3家，简直就是我本人的记录。

接下来，就是努力实践我Dancer + Trader + Consultant的日子咯。
2013年我的resolution很简单，把手上的工作做好，以及避免踏入圈套。

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 24-Dec-2012


Gold – being one of the few avenue for investor to store value is hovering near a 4 month low, are you going to hold on to the bearish gold, or hold on to USD which offer 0% interest, and infinite printing power?

Last Friday is a volatile day, market is moving down and up and currently surpressed below 13250 pts, support 13150 pts.

I reckon market to trade sideways between these two levels if no major news outbreak.

I am closing my book and not going to trade for the week and planning to enjoy my holiday.
Short trading week on Wall Street - market will be open for half day on Christmas eve, and off to observe Christmas day, resume regular trading on Wednesday but volume is expected to be light.
Cliff talk is still in the picture - tax hikes, and spending cuts decision will be moving the market.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 17-Dec-12

Last 2 week of December 2012 were generally quiet for stocks, however, market could be volatile towards end of the week as we are still paying attention to fiscal cliff : increased tax rates, spending cuts in  in January 2013 and expiration of options & futures contracts.

Technical forecast:
Weekly candle: Reversal candlestick pattern signal a bearish market.
Daily Chart: market has retraced 2/3 from October high to November low, with a bearish weekly candle and 3 black soldier, we could expect market to trade within 13,120 – 220 pts. before breaking down to target 13030 pts.
1 Hour chart: market has formed a butterfly pattern and hence we reckon market to be bullish on Monday Asian hour, and return to resistance 13,220 pts.
Hunt for short near 13,220 – 250 pts. and if market traded below 13120 it confirms the bearish sentiment, shift stop loss to entry and set target exit near 13,030 pts.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 10-Dec-2012

Listening to some quiet songs (piano) while the city is covered under thick cloud. It is drizzling out there.

I prefer this weather, drizzling, not too much sun.  To me, it’s the type of weather I want to sit close to my heart.  Blogging, reading, listening to music, and dancing, were all of them.  Just, no TV.

Last Friday, NFP result was too good, market become lively again!

Relating to NFP and some job report:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/payrolls-in-u-s-rose-146-000-in-november-jobless-rate-at-7-7-.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/nomuras-reaction-to-jobs-report-2012-12

Technical Analysis

DJIA

Friday closing: 13,155.13 pts (+81.09 pts, 0.62%)

Weekly Chart: DJIA posted another bullish candle on weekly chart, and therefore this coming week, outlook is bullish, market should continue towards next resistance 13,260 pts – 13,300 pts.

Daily Chart: Strong Support 12,930 pts

Intraday Chart (4H) market bounced off EMA50 on 4-Dec-2012 and we reckon the upward momentum to continue to 13,190 region before it comes down to test intraday support 13000 pts.

Prefer to enter long on Monday using initial shadow, buy near 13,080 pts, SL 40 pts away, Target Exit 13,200 pts or EOD.

Nasdaq 100

Friday closing: 2,978.04 pts (-11.23 pts, -0.38%)

The rest of the world is bullish, and Nasdaq 100 came down!
Apple, the stock of the largest US company fell 2.6 percent to $533.25, extending its losses for the week to 8.9 percent dragged Nasdaq 100 amid the positive job report.

Weekly Chart: neutral, market trading below strong support 2640 pts by 2 pts.

Daily Chart: bearish, if market could not break above 2650 pts but traded below 2640 pts, there is a high possibility market continue to go down.  Otherwise, breaking above 2650 market shall retest swing high 2674 pts, an ideal level for a new short.

Intrady Chart:
This Monday, I reckon market to trade sideways bias up, to 2650 pts.  Intraday resistance 2653 pts.
In fact, market has just create a new XAB downwave.

I am soooo into shorting, selling Nasdaq 100.
Throughout the week, my main objective is hunting for EMA50 rejection (4H chart), short with initial exit at 2630 pts, TG 1 2595 – 2600 pts.

Wish everyone another profitable trading week ahead.

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

Long (buy) Gold at 1696.05

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 3-Dec-2012

DJIA

Last week DJIA formed higher high, higher low - it is bullish after testing strong support 12800 - lowest 12763, and ended almost flat for the week.

It’s December already! Hopefully reports on the job market (NFP, Friday), manufacturing (PMI, Monday, Wednesday, 11pm) and consumer spending (Friday) this week may provide the market with a jump start.

Good, or bad.

Market seem bullish after testing 12800 pts., but returning to 13030 pts. also means that DJIA has recovered 50% from the fall since early Oct-12 to mid Nov-12.

Bad habit – I am waiting for a short signal.
Waiting, means no short trades for the week except NFP and consumer spending (watching).

But there are also a few clues that market may continue trading higher – first clue: market closed above EMA200.  Oscillator is oversold.

May be, it will return to 13200 pts. – 2/3 from the fall since early Oct-12 to mid Nov-12.

Trade higher.
Today: Go long near 13000 pts., SL 30 pts. away, TG 13100 pts. / EOD.


Nasdaq 100

Long or short, dependent on which side of chart you sees.
I was prone bullish on Nasdaq 100 until it marked a new low 2493 last month (mid Nov-12), it takes out bullish wave, and the bearish wave is still going on.

Similar to Dow, Market recovering from the early Oct-12 to mid Nov-12 slide, and recovered 50%.
Overhead resistance 2700 pts. is strong, if only Nasdaq 100 can break above 2700, then it will have chance to trade higher to 2730 pts., otherwise, return to support 2630 pts.

了结巧克力，感恩我的身体

Today is the 3rd day I spend with Mercedes Nieto.  A Hungarian bellydancer.

my same foot, on the same dance floor, at the end of 2 days intensive.

I captured a similar picture last year... I appreciate this pair of feet, thankful because I am still dancing.

And survived the 2 days intensive workshop of 12 hours in total.

这对脚板，似曾相识。就在同一个Dance Floor，一年以后的脚板，还是完整无缺的在努力地舞者我们疯狂的、执着的快乐。

这一次，我再次尝试到——兴奋、期待、学习、背舞步、Memory full，记不到，大脑记忆体故障、当机、中virus & 发疯。

厚脸皮地说：在我的大脑系统当机以后，我一反常态地振奋，很糟糕地吵、也很乱来——我即喜欢我的后劲，又害怕操到这种程度以后的我，能不能回复正常。

感谢一年以来一同努力的朋友，我们见证了大家的努力，以及马来西亚肚皮舞的发展。

希望，明年的时候，我也一样保持初衷，原始地爱着我的身体，学习用舞蹈的语言，丝丝流露、传达歌曲的原意。