Transaction

Gold - XAU/USD

I hv an open position last night,
I moved SL to $1656 when I see handsome floating profit while Gold trade around $1661.

My Long position was triggered at preset stop loss last night when I was asleep.

A bit unhappy. Cuz this is the 3rd time this week this type of trade happens. SL is near. Triggered.

This morning when the sky is still dark, and I'm still feeling low - due to the losses, I create a pending order to Long at $1655.

Based on PowerWave method, this entry price should be ideal and my Stop Loss is preset at yesterday Low.

2L target is around $1674, and I preset target exit around $1670.

Waiting for Beige Book news release.



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Waiting for Friday

There are a few economic releases traders will be eyeing Wednesday, but the main topic will once more be the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole and the speech Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will give there Friday.

Today (Wednesday)
economic data includes:

10pm SG/MY Time: pending home sales at 10 a.m. ET

8:30pm SG/MY Time: second look at second quarter GDP, at 8:30 a.m ET.

2am SG/MY Time (Thursday)
The biggest release of the day comes at 2 p.m. ET, when the Fed puts out its beige book on the economy, which is sure to be picked over for any discussion of employment.

Read: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48816277

Hurricane Isaac is affecting the energy prices, check NYMEX Crude.

Transaction

Short Gold at 8:25pm (GMT+8 SG/MY Time)
Short @ $1666
SL $1669 (-$3)
TG $1649 ($17)




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Transaction

6:30pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time)

Short US30 @ 13130 pts
SL 13150 pts (20 pts)
TG 13050 (80 pts)




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Transaction

I'm late, I'm in.
30 minutes chart showing bearish candlestick pattern.

Short Gold 4:40pm (GMT+8, SG/MY time)
Short 1672.50
SL 1675 (-$2.50)
TG 1652.50 ($20)





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DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Topic over the last weekend was mostly on Apple Inc legal victory over Samsung Electronics Co Ltd in San Jose, California.

And main concern now is whether Federal Reserves will continue to inject stimulus in the market – a speech by Ben Bernanke this Friday at the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming could offer some clues.

The market could be bumpy this week ahead of Friday’s meeting.

Read: Reuters :: US Week Ahead

DJIA forecast for the week starting 27 Aug 2012

Read my previous week forecast here:
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2012/08/djia-and-nasdaq-100_20.html

Market failed to reach 13,350 pts but came pretty close to it, then suffer most of the fall towards the end of the week except pullback of 100 pts on last Friday.

Market has fallen to the strong support 13150 pts now, bullish momentum has slowed down and I reckon market to swing up and down between 13300 – 13050 pts these few days.

Trades could be established when market is testing resistance 13300 or support 13050, but I don’t like to enter to any trades if it was trading in between - like current level 13175 pts.

I prefer to stay out.

i like about Gold

Gold forecast for the week starting 27 Aug 2012

for those who traded gold, you might have seen multiple bullish technical indicators showing collective bull patterns last week and the rally is driving me out of my mind.

I entered Long on 20-Aug at $1619.
wanted to place the target exit at 1639, this is a mistake, or this is done on purpose?  I took profit at 1621 ($2 instead of $20).

Gold is trading near 1670.
far above my target exit.

I like it, i made some money, although not as much as I have planned to make, but my forecast has printed the chart ^.^

[padding my own shoulders]

back to the technical forecast:
Daily Chart: Finally Gold has broke up from the sideways pattern, and after 3 days of long white candle (every day average $20), market has shown some technical correction last Friday.

shall the technical correction continues, support lies at $1647-50, and i forecast market to trade sideways testing this support.

please take a look at weekly chart, gold has traded near high, gold needs to break up above 1670 to confirm the bullish trend.

Read:
Gold survey results: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/gold-bulls-strongest-in-nine-months-as-hoard-builds-commodities.html

If you have read this link, you realize market sentiment is BULLISH - but i am holding a sideways bearish view, capped between 1650-1670.

Let's say gold continue technical correction to $1650, I am still having a long term bullish view on Gold, unless it settles below strong support $1630.

Step by Step of Traders Life

I could not hold my smile while reading this article in the office.


I found this from Julia Clara blog:

http://fx-juliaclara.blogspot.com/p/step-by-step-of-traders-life_21.html


Do read!

Found a traders blog that I am gonna follow - Trading Arcade:

http://www.tradingarcade.com/

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 20 August 2012

The number of unemployment ticked up from 364k (revised from 361k) to 366k without big surprise. Housing starts dropped to 764k (consensus 757k), but building permits has risen to 812k – highest since August 2008 just before Lehman. Retail sales advanced for the first time in last 4 months for 0.8% in July.

Manufacturing remains weak spot of the US economy, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is short of expectation showing contraction in manufacturing.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, slowed down. I remain DJIA target 13350 pts. Daily Chart: Bullish – momentum is reduced- day range is contracting from 107 pts. to 68 pts.
Intraday Chart: lack of momentum and lackluster market is capped below 13300 and more booster is required to push the index higher. 30 minutes chart is showing a reversal signal indicating market is due to a correction soon.
Current support 13250, next support 13150.
Still expecting market to go up gradually to 13350 pts.
Intraday trade: Long at initial shadow near current support 13250 TG 13350 / close EOD.

Nasdaq 100

Market has moved higher and higher each day for Nasdaq 100 an it has hit our target 2748/50 without much hesitation.
Weekly Chart: weekly candle shows bullishness and market shall continue up to test pincer top 2794 (April 2012 high).
Daily Chart: bullish, day range contracted from 24 pts. to 18 pts., I think this part shall be similar to Dow, and we expect market to trade slowly towards resistance 2795.

Intraday Chart: neutral.
Current support 2765 pts., strong support 2325.

Wishing Muslims Selamat Hari Raya!

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 13 Aug 2012

Jobless claims unexpectedly slid by 6,000 to 361,000 in the week ended August 4, proving more jobs creations in market for the unemployed.

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July for a fourth consecutive month, reflecting lower costs for fuel and food. The 0.6 percent drop in the import-price index followed a 2.4 percent decline in June;
Costs excluding fuel decreased 0.4 percent, the biggest decline in two years.
Showing the weak global demand depressing prices.

U.S. export prices climbed 0.5 percent in July, after falling 1.7 percent the previous month. Prices of farm exports climbed 6.4 percent and those of non-farm goods decreased 0.3 percent.

Last Week

Market is generally HOPING for QE3 and pushed the index higher;
Market is bullish and as per last week forecast, the support has again moved up from 12950 to 13050 – a level showing group supports from Monday to Friday.

While market is moving closer up to target level 13350, the downward pressure on DJIA with recent corn prices (increase of raw material to food manufacturers) is looming.

Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart: Bullish, I maintain DJIA target at 13350 pts.
Daily Chart: Bullish, average day range is diminishing. Trading volume has reduced, and lower than average daily volume.

Intraday chart: potential up towards 13350 but downward pressure is developing with the resistance at 13250 pts. in line with overbought signal.

We reckon market to suffer a little bit of correction on Monday, from 13200 to 13150 pts. and then trading sideways bias up towards target.

Intraday trading preference: long near 13150, close EOD or near 13300-13350.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 has posted another strong gains, and group support level moves up to 2706 and our target remains at 2748 – 2750 pts.

Hunt for long at daily initial shadow near 2718 pts., close EOD or target level 2748.

Cheers
Ayumi

Transaction

Short Gold at market, two hours trade.

based on candlestick pattern near resistance and stochastic overbought.

EUR/USD on Fri 10 Aug 2012

its late.. and the chart is getting exciting.

EUR/USD

it came down, touches first target.
and currently rebounded (sharply).

at the first sight, you may not want to miss this UP UP
may want to enter long immediately?

I took another sip of my Caramel Macchiato...
think back of my big picture..
yeah, I m not that bullish, and since I m having the bearish view, I m gotta stick to the plan, short at resistance.
so, looking at the current slide from 1.2450 to 1.2250, when market move up to 1.2350, I wish to short.

no, I WANT TO Short.

and this time the downward target remain at 1.2200 or 1.9950.
I hv a few pit stops here to take profit which is the support level which shall attract some pull back...

fingers crossed.

Chart attached.

EUR/USD on Wed 8-Aug-2012

Market went up towards 1.2450, without reaching the anticipated resistance level, and fall for 100 pips in 24 hrs.

The range is small, but get to expand a little bit with today's fall.
Unlike what we have anticipated - a sharp fall down, market is coming down gradually, and reach the price level which is neutral - and I anticipate another 24 hrs of sideways movement.

short term view (1 day) - sideways - bias up, towards resistance - 1.2400.
support 1.2330.

I am anticipating a resistance at 1.2400 to enter shorts with TG1: 1.2250, TG2: 1.2150.

EUR/USD on Tue 7-Aug-2012

Market is quiet, EUR is rising against USD amid the poor economic data from Germany, it is moving up towards our target level 1.2500.

This is a level I wished market could show resistance then push EUR/USD back down to what I hope to see (1.9950-1.2000).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

on 6 Aug 2012

It has been a while I don’t get an off day.

It’s the Selangor State holiday in Malaysia, so the KL stock market is open, global stock market is open. I am sitting in front of the PC, listening to Bloomberg radio, watching Live chart, while waiting for my car to be ready.

Life has been so interesting, so complete with all the activities I like. I know there are threats, robbery n its not safe even in the mall car park.. I wish all the Malaysian readers, all readers safe and blessed. Wishing all Muslims Happy Ramadan.

OK, it has been a while… I didn’t post my forecast on currency pairs unless during my bi-monthly issue in the local mandarin magazine.

EUR/USD

Technical forecast

Weekly Chart:

Market is in a bearish trend since May 2012.
Based on the cycle trend, the fall is likely to complete when market hit 1.2000 or worse 1.9950.

Daily Chart:
Although market has not hit 1.2000, it has already shown us bullish sentiment with an inverted head an shoulder pattern.

I doubt ECB would be able to rescue Greece… Spain.. Italy… Portugal.. I still have the idea that market shall fall to 1.9950 – 1.2000.

That was what I feel, based on what we see from the inverted head & shoulder pattern, and the bullish crossing of EMA4 and EMA20, market shall rise to 1.2500.

Intraday 4H Chart:
Market just posted a bearish candle, and after last Friday’s surge, a technical correction is normal, current support 1.2350, strong support 1.2250.

Intraday 60Mins and 30Mins Chart:
Not in overbought zone, I reckon after technical correction, market shall head back towards 1.2500.

Day trade, initial shadow to long near current support 1.2350 exit EOD or 1.2500.

Market is generally optimistic as Greece could meet the bailout requirement and I suppose the bullish sentiment could last for 2-3 days.

However, I still hope market to come down to 1.2000, I choose to day trade than to hold on to Long position – how could Euro continue to surge since the whole Euro Zone is in a life support system, high jobless rate, and weak economic figures?

Trade what I see. Wait what I hope.

Cheers to all
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 6-Aug-2012

DJIA

Last Friday DJIA surged more than 200 points to close at 13096.17 pts after a better-than-expectation jobs report. Non-Farm Payrolls increased to 163k jobs in July, better than expectation 101k and higher than June 64k revised figure.

This sharp gains as erased 4 days losing streak. For the week, Dow rose 0.17%.

Technical Forecast:

Market has surged to 13096, support moved up to 12950. I maintain the same view, once market break above the sideways pattern, next target we are expecting market to go towards 13350.

Intraday char: market trending up with a lot of downside noise, 1 hour chart showing overbought and we suspect market to suffer a little bit of technical correction to previous group support 13050 or strong support 13000 before turning up to the target level.

Pay attention to 9pm (GMT+8 ) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Monday and Tuesday.

Nasdaq 100

Similar to Dow, expect a technical pull back to 2670, or strong support 2660 before going towards 2700.