Monday, June 25, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 25th June 2012

Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 both ended in red, Nasdaq 100 gained; the Dow shed 0.9%, the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 ended 0.5% higher.

Current level 12600-12650 is a key to watch if DJIA manage to stay above then it can continue trading higher to 12900 region again, failure which will come down to support 12400 and 12300.

YM

Monday, I suspect market to trade sidways bias up above current support 12500, I prefer to enter Long near initial shadow 12560-42 = 12515-520, SL 40 pts away, TG 150 pts.


YM
2012-06-25 Mon 2:48pm (GMT+8)
30 Mins Chart

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Map It in you Mind!


I ventured into Sales since 2007 and it has been 5 years, or more.
I have made good money with the exchange of time, meals, health and friends.

This is the 3rd company I am going to work with, for my sales career, and it is the first time, I job hop into a similar industry.

IT, this happen may be because I think that I am not successful enough, or I have not figure out the way – to be successful in the IT business.  And IT, information technology, is fast moving, but customers, are slow.

For enterprise to change, and adapt to the latest technologies, it’s a challenge.
To make enterprises understand the need for change is my responsibilities.

I learn this yesterday, as a Consultant – you MUST always think of the process from a business perspective, why is this process important?  Not the flow itself.

When the country manager asks me, why a proof of delivery?  Why is this important?
My typical answer is: Yes, it is important (because my boss said so).

Paradigm shift.

2 days of non-stop orientation and trainings, I am more convinced with my mind mapping capabilities.  I can convert text, into images, or graphical / imaginative pictures to ease digestion.

That has to give thanks to my first Sifu in Sales, he said:
“A Presentation slide is useful to present it to your client,
One day, you have no electricity; you have no laptop, no projector.
You need to deliver the same, using pen and paper / or white board,
To make your client understand, the most basic, most interesting thing to him. 
That’s success.”

Yes, I learn this, and I will continue to practice this.
And thanks to my mentor in sales, I will shift, to think from a business perspective from now on.

Monday, June 11, 2012

DJIA on Mon 11-June-2012

I couldn't access the forum and I am not sure whether it is blocked or forum is still having server error.

Its my last day in Taiwan and I am going to the airport after this post.  I wish all have a fruitful week ahead.
I had very good experience in Taiwan in the past 10 days, people are good, skillful and most importantly, I make new friends.

Last week on DJIA, market surged up and closed near high at 12554 pts, from the technical chart, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader reckon the market to trade sideways bias up.

Current support is 12455, if DJIA can remain above current support then it will continue heading up to next resistance 12850 pts.
Failing which will come down to 12180 and 12050.

Bye bye Taiwan,
Ayumi


Monday, June 4, 2012

DJIA on Mon 4-June-2012

Our forum is down and so i will be sharing in my blog and twitter only..

market has confirmed the bearish sentiment with DJIA fallen below 12300.
last friday, djia shed 274.88 pts and close the week at 12118.57 pts.

with the bad economic data on NFP, unemployment rates, and euro zone turmoil, I reckon DJIA to continue trading down to target price 11850-11900.

From hourly chart, DJIA is trading near oversold region and therefore we expect a little bit up pull up to 1/3 of the day range (50 pts) before trading down again.

YM

Day Trade:
For YM on Broco chart, which is trading at 12038 now, we at Ayumi the Novice Trader expect market to move up to 12110, preferably coupled with overbought signal in 30 minutes chart, and/or a reversal candlestick pattern to initiate short trade.

SL 50 pts away, Target exit 150 pts.

EUR/USD on Mon 2012-06-04

a picture tell all....


I favour short, hope EMA50 resistance serve it well to help resist EUR/USD down a little bit more.

However, breaking above this line might lead to a short term technical rebound - 3 to 4 days may be, to return to 1.2850 - 1.2900 region.  For the bear to gather strength before it continue to drop further towards 1.2100 and 1.1900 (June 2010 low).

Sunday, June 3, 2012

天气有点冷

Hello hi from Taiwan!

I have reached this beautiful potato shaped land yesterday.
I am tired, my luggage handle is torn (finally!) and it took me almost an hour, walking on the street, crossing some big junctions, to get to the place I m going to put up for the rest of the week.

It is a wonderful place.
I climbed 5 floors, with my backpack weight around 4-5kgs, and hand carry luggage weight 8.5kgs..

Yeah, I work out on a regular basis, and I managed.
^_<
Took a quick shower to remove all the sticky feelings... and went to the night market the first night I m here.

I have finished 6 hours of training from 12pm today.. and tomorrow is going to be the 2nd day.
I asked some friend for dinner tomorrow... this time, I am not sure whether I can manage to go for dinner after 12 hours training... my foot is aching, and what else tomorrow?

No matter how, it is a wonderful dance workshop, and I am looking forward to the remaining days.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

GBP/USD on Mon 28 May 2012


GBP/USD

Market has shed more than 600 pips from 1.6305 since end of April 2012.
And every time a technical rebound .. last less than a day if not a day, and it is less than 1/3, it indicates that the market is strong bearish.

The Speed of Fall
And market has plunge all the way down towards the main support level 1.5600.
At first, I though market would just come down to 1.5930 before taking off to the next high, but each and everyday I am disappointed because market never find support, and it continues to fall.

The speed of fall, and the strong bear is too strong, coupled with European debt woes, market has generally put their focus on shorting the euros, and moving cash to US dollar, or other US denominated asset.

Bull gone for a month-long holiday
Whilst I wish to hunt for a long.. I am also doubtful of the bull, could the bull return? 
This is just my tiny little hope... I hope a technical digestion to happen.  And… at least, to pull up GBP/USD to 1/3 retracement level, 1.5850 region.

There’s no sign of the bull, as there are no signal reversal signal, no candlestick pattern that support my ‘hope’, and no stochastic level that can prove my viewpoint right.

So, I will do nothing, I will still sit, and wait.
GBP/USD is trading at 1.5667, another 60 pips to strong support level.

If I want to Trade
Yah, I can short, 17 pips above market open, and take profit at 100 pips below.  Which is what a student will do, trade with trend, not with a hope - at least for now, not yet.



DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 28th May 2012

Monday 28 May 2012

US Banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day, US Economic statistics may hold the focus of the holiday shortened week.

Will Greece leave the Euro Zone?  Questions has been popping up and there’s no one who can tell us Yes or No, and even though someone can tell, I am not sure whether the result follows (hehe ^_^), and I guess… most probably we might only get to know after the election on 17 June.  But market will certainly pay closer look when we are approaching to the day...

Last Friday DJIA fell 74.92 pts., or 0.6% to 12,454.83 pts. at the close.
Even though market were badly affected by European sovereign debt troubles, over last week, DJIA gained 0.7%.  And in most of the headlines, were the listing of Facebook, did u pay attention to it?

So, for the coming 4 days trading week, we believe US Economic statistics may hold the focus, and lets look at the major announcement calendar.

Major announcement (based on GMT+8 :: SG/MY Time)
[Tuesday ]
10:00pm CB Consumer confidence, consensus 69.6, previous 69.2. 
[Wednesday]
10:00pm Pending Home Sales;
[Thursday]
8:30pm Prelim GDP q/q, ADP Non Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims;
[Friday]
8:30pm NFP, Unemployment Rate;
10pm ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Since market is closed on Monday, my forecast is now based on YM on Broco Trader (MT4).

I reckon market to trade sideways with the top restricted to current resistance 12480 region.
And to test current support 12385 on Monday.  Since the major announcement only come into play on Tuesday night, I suggest traders to stay sideline and take some time to discover other US dollar denominated asset like Gold.

Chart:


Monday, May 21, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 21st May 2012

DJIA

DJIA closed at 12369.38 pts, down 73.11 pts or 0.59% last Friday.
Worst performing week, since last November - DJIA was down 3.5% for the week.

If we plot a downward channel, market has fallen towards the bottom support line, we forecast market to come up to the upper channel (resistance) 12430, before another leg down of 150 pts - 12280 or 12250.

DJIA 30 mins chart:

Nasdaq 100


Similar to Dow, there is only more DOWN..
Next support 2440 pts.

We expect a technical rebound as the market is oversold but resistance shall be capped at 2517-2520 pts.

Hunt for short near resistance 2517-2520, SL 2530 (1/3 retracement)
Target Exit:
TG1: 2480,
TG2: 2440.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

GBP/USD Update


GBP/USD on 16-May-2012

Something interesting is happening, timing is almost there.
With the euro turmoil, Greece election, US JPMorgan chase 2 billion trading loss…

We see USD shooting up like crazy..

And so in line with non so good economic data release from the Great Britain side…

Market plunged and now trading at 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Check day chart below.



My method is easy.
Fibonacci retracement, 50%, look for a strong reversal signal, or previous group support.

Here I identified two levels…
Current 1.5930 (red triangle box)
Next support 1.5810 (purple line)

I hope market do not need to fall there (1.5810) but start to consolidate from today, trade sideways between 1.5900 – 1.6050 (150 pips) and breakup to next high next week.
I believe market will repeat the same cycle, and so, for the remaining of the week, I reckon market to consolidate, bias up.

I rather not enter any trade, but hope to long (now), or initiate Long next Monday (save some overnight interest, save myself from weekend news) and lets ride.

Will post if trade was done.

Gold Update

On this beautiful Wednesday evening, 16-May-2012

Take a look at Gold, what say you?

Gold Daily Chart

Group Support level: 1522
Psychological Support 1500
Next bottom: 1475

You think it is a good buy now?
I think not yet.

Bargain hunting to buy some precious gold, may be buying action should only come next week.
This week, lets continue shorting!

No signal from hourly chart, no signal from 30 mins chart, not overbought, neither oversold.
Daily Range 23 pts.
Can short when market returns 1540.
Target exit: 1522
Target exit: 1500

Will be greedy to buy when it fall below 1500 towards 1475.


Sunday, May 13, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 14th May 2012

Identifying the major support and resistance, trade according to your belief.
Once market crossed the mark, relax, and stay tuned.  There is trading opportunity every week, everyday, every hour.  No rush, patience, and wait for market to unfold the story, make quick decision when the time is near, take 100% responsibilities and accountability of your own trading account.

DJIA

DJIA has marked another bearish candle for the week, and as per our forecast, market found support at 12850 and closed near this level, last done 12820.

Ultimately, DJIA has tested below 12750 and it is now is a bearish tone with the Eurozone turmoil, in line with many other economical threat.

We have observed market rebound at 12750 region, and market was trading sideway in a flag pattern waiting the next breakout.

We reckon market to trade within tightening range between 12750-12920 for 2 days before the next bull / bear emerge.

Resistance 12920
Strong Resistance 13050

Support 12720
Next support 12685
Once break below 12685, target to reach 12530.

Nasdaq 100

Similarly, Nasdaq 100 continued the downfall, achieved our target 2610 and tested below strong support 2795, and finally close at 2615.

This week we expect market to trade in range between 2590 – 2665.
For Monday & Tuesday market is more likely to test current support 2600 before going up to test resistance 2660, I personally favor to long around 2604 – 2609 pts. (against the market sentiment) for a quick trade.

Next is to observe resistance of 2665, if market is bearish, and formed a bearish candle in 4H chart while testing 2665, then I would prefer to short and wait for market to test support 2610-2615 towards end of the week.

Cheers, lets make some money
Ayumi

Sunday~

Another blessed Sunday :)
I am sitting right in front of my laptop since 12.. and I have done some reading, read the headlines of the week on global market, read a few article that grab my interest, then I got distracted a bit, I went to the store room to find what is available for my June holiday.

I check my cabin bag, my backpack, thinking of what should I bring when I visit to Taipei, Taiwan?

Since I am gonna stay in a 4 beds female dorm, on the 4th floor without lift (yeah it needs a bit of walking and/or climbing).. I think I should have bring some light luggage instead.

Take a look at the picture... My backpack is parked side by side to the approved cabin bag size... Since the backpack size look similar to a cabin bag, I think it should not be a problem if I bring them up to the aircraft...

Why would I need two bag instead of 1?  11 days of stay in Taipei, the shopping is going to add up to my return luggage ^__^ after food, and night markets.

the backpack looks cool isn't it.. monotone, with lots and lots of compartments.
and found this little angel someone brought for me from Taiwan two - three years back.  It is hiding in one of the side pocket ^__^


Sweet~~~

End of my side stories... Coming up, market forecast :)

Ayumi

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Updates on US30

Market has fallen below 13000 and plunged to 12850 which is also our weekly target.

Expect little support around 12850 and return to 12900.

As per my weekly forecast, i switched from sideway bullish to bearish if market failed to sustain above 12980.

I will Hunt for shorting opportunity when the bear takes a breather and return to resistance 12900-12950.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Sunday, May 6, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 7th May 2012

DJIA 

DJIA was trading up all the way to 13338 early of last week, and as per what we quoted - overhead resistance near 13300 is strong, in line with negative economic announcements and euro zone debt woes, DJIA traded down to 13050- a strong support level.

This is a crucial level to watch, if DJIA is not able to sustain above 13050, further correction down to 12850 is within reach for this week.

However, we can only expect some major announcements on Friday, so I forecasts DJIA to trade sideways at the current level, 13000 may be up to 13180 level from Monday to Wednesday.

My preference is still hunting for long, personally, I will observe when DJIA traded down to test 13000 support level, and might want to long if market shows support here, provided that DJIA never trade below 12980, if this happen (trade below 12980), it proves more downside correction is expected and I will change my short term view from Long - to Short and expect to close the short position at 12850 level.


NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 posted a bearish weekly candle. This week, bearish.

R2: 2695-2700
R1: 2642
S1: 2630
S2: 2595-2600

Monday hunt for shorting opportunity using initial shadow at R1 level 2642, SL 2650, and aim to exit at 2610-2630.

Monday, April 30, 2012

DJIA and Nasdaq 100


DJIA for Week starting 30 Apr 2012

Early of last week, DJIA tested support 12880 and further dip to 12850 which signifies weakening of market sentiments, at first, we thought market could continue to dip down to 12750 but, market reverses and continue to surge to our target price during remaining of the week.

Resistance: 13280 – 13300

We reckon the top resistance is strong and DJIA could be temporarily supported at 13150.

If DJIA manages to break above 13300, then it could drive all the way up to 13450 which is also the wave target price if we mark April 2012 low as X and 12845 on 13/4/12 as B.

Hunt for long when market retrace to 1/3 near 13150 region.
Abandon Long if DJIA traded below 13050 strong support.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Sunday~~ Full Charge

Surprise, surprise and surprise!

Blogger has revamped new look, I saw the page load and statistics when I log in to the blogger main page, the page load is higher than what was printed on my blog, I guess that was due to my reset of my whole blog in July 2010 when I decides to start all over again and removed the past posts since 2007.

Then I go to the "load from" to take a look at the visitor map... and surprised to know that this forum http://chartistsunited.com/forum/index.php, printed my blog in their blog directories... I do not know who is the author or administrator of this forum and I continue to find out more statistics.

It seems that the blog is driving some visitor from US, Malaysia and Singapore which is quite surprise to me also.

Thanks to the reader and this is my trading journal and I hope in someway it is beneficial..

I have been busy the past weeks - new job scope, performance, dance classes, gathering, relationship concerns, holidays... and I would like to say things start to settle down and I have strike off many "To Do's" from my list.

Watched a movie this morning, and it is good.
"We bought a Zoo"

 Touching and nice...

20 seconds of courage... and Let's do it.  Why Not?
Life is an adventure.

Monday, April 23, 2012

DJIA update Mon 23-Apr-2012

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls

A very good morning from the marine rich, beautiful island - Pulau Redang!

I hv tried multiple times to access the Internet but it takes 1 minute to load a page... And another minute to load a chart...
Reminding me of last decade while Internet is slow and we are all patiently waiting for everything to appear. But with modern technology, we are pampered, and we can't seem to be waiting!

I was lying down on the hammock while reading US30 chart from FXCM, and not able to see DJIA chart. So the levels quoted here might not be accurate.

US30
For the following week, DJIA might continue trading in consolidation within the channel formed since these two weeks and if u can, draw a supporting trendline diagonally up which indicates where it will be supported.

QLast done: 13020
S1: 12950
S2: 12880
R1: 13130
R2: 13250

Long long up up here we go DJIA.

If DJIA broken this supported trendline and trade below 12880 and it becomes Resistance, then DJIA shall continue the slide to 12750 and 12550 respectively.

Cheers
Ayumi

Monday, April 16, 2012

It must not be a choice

Recently I have been overwhelmed with work. Moody.
The task is continuously testing my capabilities, I am challenged because I always think that I have limitation, and I always think that I am lack of resources.

Someone on my FB wall commented, suggest me … to go back to Trading.
Yes, I really hope so, to give up everything, just dance, and trading.

But I do NOT want things to happen this way…
Trading should not be a choice.
Dances should not be a choice.

I simply think that we cannot choose trading, or dancing, because I failed in some other areas.
I just do NOT want trading to be an option.

It is like… going back to your ex and tell them “the new relationship doesn’t work out”.
How does it sounds?

I bet it sounds like “Ewwwww…”annoying.

I am working so hard, to strike a balance between all the things I regard as important in my life… all these activities enriched my life, and I do not want them to become an option.
There are unlimited possibilities, and unlimited happiness if we are able to work out all these 3 things.

It satisfy me, my mother, and my bank account.

And I would like to encourage you to dedicate more, focus more, work hard towards getting what you want, and going full speed to achieving them. When you look back, there are only two things:
1. these are the experiences in life worth fighting for, or
2. they are plain rubbish…
but undoubtedly, you have given them the true meaning with all hard work.

What if it works?

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 Update for Mon 16 Apr 2012

DJIA

DJIA plunged last Monday & Tuesday on renewed Euro Zone debt crisis, it went down to test 12750 main support, formed a low around 12715 and rebounded to 12986 while investor hope another round of easing from Federal Reserves.

Market has suffered the worst 2nd week in this year, and fallen way below 13000, and the market condition has shifted from sideway bearish, to bearish.

We at Ayumi the Novice Trader viewed last Thursday and Friday as technical correction and market shall capped below 13000.

Current support 12700 is still holding up the market and therefore we reckon the technical correction to continue until Tuesday/Wednesday before market decides its next move.

If market is not able to break above 13000, we expect market to extend its losses to 12500; this is the 50% Fibo Retracement level. Currently 13000 act as a strong resistance which is a difficult level to break if DJIA wants to turn to bullish again.

Follow us, visit us again on Thursday for trading insights by Sarah.


NASDAQ 100

Market condition: sideway bearish
Weekly chart: NASDAQ 100 has formed the first bearish candle, and there will be more to come.

Support 2730 has turned into resistance now.

Market will trade sideway between 2700 – 2730, and may revisit 2685, once market break below 2685, we expect market to turn down to WTP 2630 in 2-3 weeks time.