DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA forecast for week starting 30 Jul 2012

Hi traders

I returned from a dance workshop this evening, learning from two gurus from the middle eastern dance – rhythms and culture and the combinations.

I was a fun weekend, and I was trying to run Broco (MT4) on my system but unable to run may be due to system error.  I am using the chart from my broker so I avoid quoting the levels to avoid confusion.

Last week we have a roller coaster ride, lower than expectation new home sales and pending home sales, amid from the lousy company earnings report, and low consumer confidence, announcement from ECB has lifted market confidence and Dow, crossed above 13000 first time since May 2012.

Next week market focuses on the meeting between ECB an US Federal Reserve.

Technical Forecast

Technically from Daily chart, DJIA has posted a breakout and as per last week’s posting, once DJIA break above 13000, we are expecting the rise to continue up to 13300-350.

Check last week’s daily chart to get an idea of this breakout (BKO) from the ascending triangle.

Link: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzHHMBSFltdSWuiy67E4iJS1ny6TliFt7NAi92QaQSRx79D5v68SirKk5_Ru6kOIdu9Gr2L7K6ce-AkGDPmqiTzhJWlHhFnhllHWxa6zWBl5pobwUfjYg-MIqksRDEbtBSq66hzPT6ksQ/s1600/07-22+djia+d.gif

Hunt for long at initial shadow on Monday.  Target exit EOD or the above level 13300-350 pts.

Related:

http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2012/07/djia-and-nasdaq-100_22.html

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 23-Jul-2012

Towards the end of last week, better-than-expected earnings were in trend and market was trading sideways on Monday then traded to highest 12977.57 before market settle down at 12822.57 pts.

Next week, earnings will continue to catch the attention of investors and euro zone crisis will also share the spot light. Among all, it start from Tuesday from Facebook earnings, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, and Flash Manufacturing PMI for July 2012.

Technical Forecast

From Weekly chart: DJIA has found its support strong 12500 and the support moved up to 12650 but resistance stays at 13000 levels, this means DJIA was trading in an ascending triangle. While another weekly candle formed, we are moving towards the end of this sideways market.

Weekly Chart:


Daily Chart:
Here we are near the end of July and as what I mentioned in the weekly chart, we can see the consolidation pattern better and we are really close to the end of current trend.

While market has moved up the support level higher each week, we reckon support for this week stays at 12700 and resistance stays strong 13000.

Trade for the week:

Market is going to trade in minimum range on Monday as there’s no announcement, it is likely to be under pressure towards 12750 (EMA50 on 4H), market shall not breach 12700 to complete this cycle. Towards the announcement or FOMC statements an many other Euro Zone PMI data, market shall trade sideways challenging the top 12900-13000.

Trade at main support / resistance with 50 pts. SL and target exit EOD not more than 2 days at day range.

The next move:

Once the market has accumulated enough strength, there shall be a breakout either breaking above 13000 towards 13350, or breaking below 12700 and go down towards 12500.


Nasdaq 100
The chart pattern is different for Nasdaq 100, market has formed a new high last week and currently a technical correction is desirable while expecting the earnings from Facebook and Apple.

Current support 2600, Strong support 2585.

Enter long at 2610 is desirable on Monday SL 10 pts. away target exit 2630, if market manage to stays above 2618 on Monday closing, you might want to hold on to Long until Tuesday expect market to make another surge up to form new high. Abandon Long if market traded below 2585.

Trade update

Gold long position

Market came down and Triggered SL, then reversed and hit target.
Ops

Based on GMT+8 SG/MY time on 16/7/2012




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Transaction

Marker order
Long Gold @ 1586 x 20
SL 1583 (-$60)
TG 1596 (+$200)

Pending order to Long at 1585 x 20
SL 1581 (-$80)
TG 1597 (+$240)



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 16-Jul-2012

It was a reporting season, and last week DJIA suffered 4 consecutive losing days from weekly open 12772.02 pts to low 12492.33 pts, the longest losing streak since May 2012.

Last Friday DJIA rebounded and gain 203.82 pts result a positive close for the week at 12777.09 pts.

Market was led by JPMorgan Q2 earnings $1.21 per share on revenue of @22.9 billion vs forecast of 70 cents per share on revenue of @21.8 billion and Producer Price up 0.1%, above expectation of -0.3%.

From technical chart we reckon this bullish momentum to continue on Monday and DJIA shall find its strong support at 12680 and return to resistance 12830 pts.

YM (currently trading at 12699 pts )
Daily chart reflected that market has rallied up to resistance 12760 region and shall trade sideways bias up to test this resistance.  Strong support 12630 pts.

Should YM failed to break this resistance 12760 and fall below 12630, this shall form its new resistance and we shall expect another series of losing streak.

The downside target is 12530, then 12430 before testing last June low 12385.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 chart is slightly bearish compare to Dow as Nasdaq 100 is currently trading near its EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, it is resisted around 2582 pts.

From Daily candle we expect Nasdaq 100 to post another bullish candle today and close near 2595 pts to form divergence in intraday 30 mins chart before coming down to 2560 pts.

News:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress on July 17 / 18, to give his semi- annual monetary policy testimony. pay attention to your position and beware of fundamental news as it will lead the next market direction.

Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/bernanke-to-testify-before-congress-2012-7

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA and Nasdaq 100 for the week starting 9-Jul-2012

Last Friday Non Farm Payroll announces low non-farm payroll, although there are 3,000 gains result in the 80,000 gain in employment but this figure is fall short of market expectation of 100,000 gains.
Growth in private payroll was the weakest in 10 months.

US stocks fell in line with the low job creation, unemployment rate stood unchanged above 8% at 8.2%.

DJIA 124.20 pts and close at 12,772.47 on last Friday.
DJIA fell 103.38 pts (-0.8%) for the week.

From the weekly chart, market seems neutral and from the candlestick pattern we observe a little bit of pull back on last Friday when DJIA traded down to 12703.07 pts.
From intraday (4H) this low 12703.07 pts also touching EMA50 (4H) which signifies market were finding support near 12700.

Current resistance 12800.

We reckon market to trade between 12700-12800 on Monday.

YM (Broco)

Early of the week,
We reckon market to trade between current support 12650 and current resistance 12780.

We forecast after a lackluster Monday, market might trade down to test new low 12620 (2L) before a technical rebound back to 12750 again.
Pay attention to Wednesday 8:30pm Trade Balance and 2am FOMC meeting minutes.  Market were generally hoping for positive announcement which might drive the market up.

Next economic figures to look out is Friday 8:30pm PPI which might be the key driver to next market direction.

Technically, if resistance 12750-780 is strong then we might see another leg down towards target 12480.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart show more bearish sentiment than Dow, however, a similar pullback shows that the same might happen – consolidation between 2600 – 2620.

This pull up might be capped at 2620, lets say market break above 2620 next resistance 2630.

Similar to Dow, I am hunting for short towards mid / end of the week near the above mentioned resistance 2620 / 2630 and aim to take profit at TG1: 2600 and TG2: next support 2585.

Wish all has a profitable trading week.

Cheers
Ayumi

EUR/USD on Wed 4-Jul-2012

I was reading soulfire blog and he kind of reminds me to check my statements and keep track of my own performance.

I extracted my transaction for Jun-2012 month and its a positive result with only 1/3 of my normal number of transactions.

So, rather than wanting to trade everyday, trade when I am certain and put more focus in the market.

EUR/USD

I reckon market to suffer trade sideways bias down during early of the month, and estimate market to pull up after testing 1.2500 support or maximum to the purple support line estimate 1.2400 - 1.2450.

after that market to continue pulling up to 1.2900 resistance level (horizontal red line).

for July 2012, market to trade within 1.2500-1.2900 (400 pips)

4 Hour Chart: I reckon market to trade sideways bias down towards 1.2500 for 1st week of July before moving up.

However, the correction down might not be significant if market manage to stay above 1.2560 (EMA50 in 4H) then it shall not visit 1.2500 but will right away trading up towards 1.2700 then 1.2900.

early of this week hunt for short, and wait for opportunity to long when market approaches weekly support 1.2500 or upward support line 1.2400.

Transaction

on Tue 3-Jul-2012

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading towards strong support 1.5800 but the market is somehow showing weakness at current resistance 1.5700.

Market is lackluster and on 30 mins chart it shows the first full black bar and price has traded below MMA200 - a short term trading setup that I seldom use.

I shorted GBP/USD at 1.5675, SL 1.5710, TP 1.5590.
The target price might be adjusted lower if market shows more downward momentum.
Current support 1.5650, S1: 1.5570 then S2: 1.5520.