Merry Christmas!

This week I will take time off and there will be no forecast, no updates.

It was Silent Night, and I am waiting for my brother's return.
I sleep very early because I had 3 sessions of belly dancing ... in the middle of the beauty sleep, the phone rang!

My brother apologize that he told me the flight date wrongly... they will be back 1 day later.



After this phone call, look at the wall clock, its 30 minutes to Christmas.
How did I spend my last Christmas? my last last Christmas?

It is Christmas, and I start to rewind what had happened this year... and start to think about the past.
I remember a new year eve in 2008, that I hang out with classmates and the club is full. No fun if it is full... everyone squeeze to get in, squeeze to move around... a bit tough to have fun in this type of environment.

However I do hope for some noise and laughter.

(this is the christmas decor in Bangsar Shopping Center (BSC), I took a snap yesterday after class)

I turned on TV, no program that I wished to watch.
I turned on my laptop, and started to blog.
And I started my research for the next travel destination. Yeah, I did research for Hong Kong.
Supposed to go there early of this year, but ... again, it is my choice to stay rather than move.
Why not Taiwan? yeah, I have ticket to Taiwan mid of this year, and again I dropped it.

Job, dance... It has definitely go a loooong way. Trading.... loooooong journey to transform from an investor to a trader, it is challenging!
I see myself improving in few areas, yes, I learn to appreciate myself.  The camp that I went last week has worked.
And, I just told myself to Love myself more in 2012.

And I will dance, and travel to HK or Taiwan in 2012. a Christmas gift to myself.

Learn to Love myself
Ayumi

Gold on 22-Dec-2011

Position closed with $15 profit.
Market should be quiet today.

Chinese is celebrating Dong Zhi today, and normally we will prepare Tang Yuan at home.
Since my dad passed away this year we cannot do it. *Miss Tang Yuan~*
Although my house cannot prepare Tang Yuan for Dong Zhi Festival, I have seen many wishes and wish everyone Happy Dong Zhi festival!

Ayumi

Gold on Wed 21-Dec-2011

Quite strong signal in 4 hour chart.
Short 1625 SL 1640 TG 1609/1600 (EOD)

Weekly Chart:
consolidating in flag pattern.

Daily Chart:
Market fall and hit 3L WTP, rebounded to 1/3 fibo retracement level and tend to shake off a little bit of cash...

Hitting the dance floor, shimmies @ dance academy
Ayumi

Transactions

Long YM 11890 SL 11850 TG 12060 / EOD.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Market suppressed under the roof top line and last week, we forecast market to retrace back to this roof top resistance and come down.

Although market has retraced but it didn't touched the rooftop line, and continue to trade down below initial support. Then, market fall but didn't touch the target exit... as a conclusion, Market neither touched my forecast resistance nor support level, but the direction is still alright.

From the economic data front, US dollar continues to rise and Fed Chairmen Mr. Ben announced to keep the monetary policy unchanged. This week there will be announcement of Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, and New Home Sales.
The housing data are forecast to go up higher, similarly the consumer data is expected to inch higher and therefore we forecast a Christmas Rally to happen – if there’s no news from the Euro-zone debt crisis.

Encourage to read this article to gain insight of the top 10 economic data for the week.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-trading-week/2011/12/17/

Technical Forecast
From the technical chart, DJIA has formed a big bearish candle last week and market is going to be under pressure.

Existing Group Resistance 11965.
Next Support 11785.

Thursday and Friday daily candle shows market finding support and consolidating. Forecast market to move sideways between 11800 – 950 (150 – 200 pts) until Wednesday night – Existing Home sales data release.

If the data release is good, then the Christmas rally should lead DJIA back to 12180.
If market failed to sustain above support 11785, and if in line with a shock from Euro debt crisis worsen, then market shall come down below 11600.

NASDAQ 100

From the daily chart, market is prone to bearish sentiment, but we are expecting fundamentally strong economic data announcement this week, which might fuel a Christmas rally.

Last week, Nasdaq 100 has hit the strong support 2219-2220 and retraced, 1/3 retracement up to 2260 and started to trade sideways. I forecast NASDAQ100 to retrace up to 2260 again, and test strong resistance 2280.

Strong Resistance: 2295
Resistance2: 2280
Resistance1: 2260
Current Support: 2225
Support2: 2219
Strong Support: 2180

If the announcement is good, the news might lead Nasdaq 100 to go above 2280 and hit 2295, which is the wave target price of the 30 minutes inner wave (up).

Back!

Haha, I am back and I had fun!

I intend to put the forecast up last night but after reading some articles and the financial figures (so many financial data last Thursday and Friday), but........ I manage to read some financial news only and KO (Zzzz...zzZ...) hahaha

Let's see what had happen on the chart.

Board breaking n fire eating workshop

Journey begins!

I'm going to the beach for the weekend for a fun filled, self discovery workshop.
Bringing my yoga mat makes me feel like its a yoga retreat!

P/s, my laptop is with me! *workaholic* ^^




Holiday mood,
Ayumi

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

YM on Wed 14-Dec-2011

YM has touched the 1/3 retracement level at 11909 and rebounded, last traded 11970 (up +70 pts).
If market is bearish biased, breaking down below 11909 and then further dip to test 11710 is possible!

Before the bigger picture come into play, Short term recovery is expected.
Check 1 hour chart, butterfly pattern has formed and reckon market to return to rooftop line 12060.

Transaction (FX)

Quick trade: Long EUR/USD at 1.3191, SL 1.3150 (41 pips), TG 1.3280 (90 pips).

EUR/USD on Tue 13-Dec-2011

While waiting for US Retail sale announcement, we were expecting Euro to reverse from current low 1.3160, If any chance the announcement is disappointing, euro may break below 1.3144, upon breaking below this support, then it will drop further down to 1.2900-950.

However, as we are looking for a reversal opportunity, I prefer this level 1.3160 to hold and market reverse up to 1.3270, then to 1.3520 level.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

US Consumer confidence improves, trade gap narrow from import decline, European Union summit add 200 billion euros to contain the sovereign debt turmoil.

Boosted by good news, DJIA closed at 12184.26 pts. Last Friday (+ 186.56 pts., 1.55%).

DJIA

Technically, 12180 is a double top resistance, tested and broken once on last Wednesday night.
Market shed almost 200 pts. the next day, turned down to support level 11950.

Stimulated by consumer confidence, market recovered on Friday and recovered above 12180.

This type of zigzag pattern is hard to trade; however, market is bullish bias. Market has tested its strong support 11950 and the bullish sentiment may extend for another week.

Since 12180 resistance is broken, we forecast DJIA is going to next level 12300. Upon reaching this level we reckon market to start channeling up testing higher high towards 12700.

We maintain the same view from last week, short term traders can Long and traders prefer to short, wait hunt, and observe for opportunity to unfold.

Monday trade plan: Long at initial shadow 30 pts from opening.
For YM on broco chart: Long at initial shadow near 12130 – 12145, SL 12080 (50 pts), TG 12300 (170 pts).

Trade plan is illustrated below:

NASDAQ100

Similar to Dow, Monday will be another up day target to reach 2340.
Long at initial shadow near 2308, SL 2300, TG 2340.
For NQ on Broco chart: Long at initial shadow near 2306/7, SL 2295, TG 2340.

2340 pts. is also a group resistance level, upon breaking above group resistance 2340, NASDAQ100 will trade towards 2365-2370, and failure to break above this level NASDAQ100 will fall back to 2275 pts, do not compromise your stop loss and trade responsibly.

China set to be top economy by 2030

I was reading some news and today’s headline…
China set to be top economy by 2030…
The World Bank said China will maintain a GDP growth rate of about 8 percent in the coming 20 years.
Link: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-03/24/content_12220043.htm
In 2030, income per capita will be two fold, to reach USD16,000.

Which is equivalent to RM48,000
*based on USD: MYR = 1:3.
I was curious, what is Malaysia’s income per capita?

I Google and found the following:
Malaysian’s PPP is ranked 57-58 which is almost USD14,500.
Singaporean’s PPP is ranked 3-4 which is almost USD57,500.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Disclaimer: This blog cannot guarantee the accuracy of external data~ the blog shall not entice any investment decision, trade responsibly.

CL Update on 6-Dec-2011

Weekly chart seems bullish. With a tendency to test last month’s high 103.37. If market break above 103.37, then it will continue to rise to 106.85.

From Daily chart, yesterday’s black candle seems to be a beginning of a correction,
If market close a black candle below 99.50 then it might lead the start of correction.

However, from intraday chart, there’s no sign of retracement, stochastic is low, and current support 100.20 hold.

Today’s view is Up.
To pick long at current support near 100.20 – 100.50, SL 99.80 and aim to exit at 102.00.
If market break below and close below 99.50, I will abandon long.

FXCM

Continue my trial on FXCM... I am working on application, and I am still comfortable with their platform.
Be it a web-based, or application based, the appearance is very similar.

I placed a market order this morning to Long on DJIA (US30).
And trying the trailing stop for first time.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

From DJIA chart, we can see that the market sentiment is bullish bias.

But DJIA has traded up to previous high. Last Friday high @ 12146, double top resistance 12180. We prefer to hunt for shorting opportunity at this level, reckon the “energy boost” couldn’t last longer than 2 weeks.

If market break above 12180 chances are DJIA going to 12300 and start consolidating by testing higher high towards 12700, hopefully can form a head a shoulder pattern (takes approximately 2 weeks) before it turns down again.

Traders prefer to short: Wait, hunt, observe
Traders prefer to Long: short term.

NASDAQ 100

Bullish sentiment is leading the market, therefore Short term trading go for Long at target exit 2330.

Long term view similar to Dow, hunt patiently for short opportunity at 2330 pts.

If market break above this resistance abandon short view.

Money Management

I was reading the money management by Brent Penfold; it’s from the book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading”.

Shy… cuz I have been reading this book from early of the year, initially I was reading fast… but this chapter stopped me from moving forward. To me it is very academic and it involves many many mathematic calculations, some strange terms... standard deviation, drawdown, catastrophic losses, value payoff…

I will only bring the book out with me whenever I go to the hair saloon, and friends… who goes to the saloon every day? I go there may be once every three months = (

This chapter although is tough for me, yeah, I always thought money management is tough, although I know how to calculate my risk, risk 50 pips, risk 2% of my capital… it is a very very straightforward thing, but I always telling myself, Money Management is not as simple as that… to be honest, I think I am constantly sending the wrong message to my mind.

Finally, I have chosen William Fixed-Risk Money Management, yet arrive higher profits, but with higher volatility too… whatever. Key: Trade more contracts when you are making profits, and trade less when you are losing. Van Tharp share the same thought. Super Trader is another great book that keeps me on track.

However, in turns, by completing this chapter, it gave me insight.

Compare to my past trading experience in Stocks, when I start trading FX, I abandon what I have learned in the past, and re-learn this new market. No matter what market it is, survival is always the main topic. How do we protect our capital and survive in the market is a very important practice, it requires discipline, patience, and courage.

I love my new hair color, and my short fringe.
Ayumi

You may want to read this:

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

It is a volatile week...

And my view also changed with the week's market action.

Initially it was:

Market fulfilled 1/3 retracement, with the resistance on EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, and divergence in hourly chart, market turn down.
From 1.3440 down to 1.3250.
The trade was successful.

However, market rebounded from this low, and sharply risen above previous resistance, and fulfilled FR50 in a smaller time frame.

Let’s see what happened... and lets take the bearish view bullish... market just found a reliable support and turned up...

And these price action, result in a change of my short term view.

Then my view becomes:

This is a daily chart, and let’s takes the peak in end Oct-2011 as the start of the Fibo retracement, therefore the start of retracement begins from the low formed 2 weeks ago.

Market has found a solid support at 1.3210. Then 1.3260.

Reckon market to continue this retracement, up up up to FR50, which coincide with PowerWave initial wave target price 1.3720.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is easier to read... XD

Nice retracement. 1/3, resisted, and then breakout, retrace to 1/2, and now the price action is mixed, bearish bias.

Let's take a look at daily chart.

GBP/USD has retrace 50% from the double top and travel between the EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
From daily chart outlook, it is bearish bias especially after Friday's sharp fall @ midnight.

I was not feeling well last Friday, after taking the cold medicine, I was half asleep - but still shorted the market - I think aggressive trading/ gambling is still my nature =).

Monday reckon market to continue the quiet price action and slowly move up to 1.5630-640 before it extends another leg down to 1.5530 to test support and return to 2nd support 1.5450.

My trading plan for GBP/USD is to short at the same 1.5630-640 region, SL 1.5680, TG 1.5450 / EOD.

Still Sneezing,
Ayumi

Thanks to Sam Trader!

I luv it soooooooo much!!!


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

FXCM

I have been searching for broker with MT4, great mobile app...
Since I have been using Trade Interceptor, I am trying out FXCM... this post is not promoting any broker, but just a snapshot of how does FXCM looks.

This is the screen shot from their desktop application.

Default Charting, maximize GBP/USD:

Dealing Rates - Advanced:

Dealing Rates - Simple:

I still prefer the "simple dealing rates".. may be because I'm used to it.

Some terminology on my Portfolio (Open Positions) is new...
The GBP/USD short position is opened last night...
what is "Roll"? -0.20?

Overall the color of the trading station is fine.