Merry Christmas!

This week I will take time off and there will be no forecast, no updates.

It was Silent Night, and I am waiting for my brother's return.
I sleep very early because I had 3 sessions of belly dancing ... in the middle of the beauty sleep, the phone rang!

My brother apologize that he told me the flight date wrongly... they will be back 1 day later.



After this phone call, look at the wall clock, its 30 minutes to Christmas.
How did I spend my last Christmas? my last last Christmas?

It is Christmas, and I start to rewind what had happened this year... and start to think about the past.
I remember a new year eve in 2008, that I hang out with classmates and the club is full. No fun if it is full... everyone squeeze to get in, squeeze to move around... a bit tough to have fun in this type of environment.

However I do hope for some noise and laughter.

(this is the christmas decor in Bangsar Shopping Center (BSC), I took a snap yesterday after class)

I turned on TV, no program that I wished to watch.
I turned on my laptop, and started to blog.
And I started my research for the next travel destination. Yeah, I did research for Hong Kong.
Supposed to go there early of this year, but ... again, it is my choice to stay rather than move.
Why not Taiwan? yeah, I have ticket to Taiwan mid of this year, and again I dropped it.

Job, dance... It has definitely go a loooong way. Trading.... loooooong journey to transform from an investor to a trader, it is challenging!
I see myself improving in few areas, yes, I learn to appreciate myself.  The camp that I went last week has worked.
And, I just told myself to Love myself more in 2012.

And I will dance, and travel to HK or Taiwan in 2012. a Christmas gift to myself.

Learn to Love myself
Ayumi

Gold on 22-Dec-2011

Position closed with $15 profit.
Market should be quiet today.

Chinese is celebrating Dong Zhi today, and normally we will prepare Tang Yuan at home.
Since my dad passed away this year we cannot do it. *Miss Tang Yuan~*
Although my house cannot prepare Tang Yuan for Dong Zhi Festival, I have seen many wishes and wish everyone Happy Dong Zhi festival!

Ayumi

Gold on Wed 21-Dec-2011

Quite strong signal in 4 hour chart.
Short 1625 SL 1640 TG 1609/1600 (EOD)

Weekly Chart:
consolidating in flag pattern.

Daily Chart:
Market fall and hit 3L WTP, rebounded to 1/3 fibo retracement level and tend to shake off a little bit of cash...

Hitting the dance floor, shimmies @ dance academy
Ayumi

Transactions

Long YM 11890 SL 11850 TG 12060 / EOD.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Market suppressed under the roof top line and last week, we forecast market to retrace back to this roof top resistance and come down.

Although market has retraced but it didn't touched the rooftop line, and continue to trade down below initial support. Then, market fall but didn't touch the target exit... as a conclusion, Market neither touched my forecast resistance nor support level, but the direction is still alright.

From the economic data front, US dollar continues to rise and Fed Chairmen Mr. Ben announced to keep the monetary policy unchanged. This week there will be announcement of Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, and New Home Sales.
The housing data are forecast to go up higher, similarly the consumer data is expected to inch higher and therefore we forecast a Christmas Rally to happen – if there’s no news from the Euro-zone debt crisis.

Encourage to read this article to gain insight of the top 10 economic data for the week.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/the-trading-week/2011/12/17/

Technical Forecast
From the technical chart, DJIA has formed a big bearish candle last week and market is going to be under pressure.

Existing Group Resistance 11965.
Next Support 11785.

Thursday and Friday daily candle shows market finding support and consolidating. Forecast market to move sideways between 11800 – 950 (150 – 200 pts) until Wednesday night – Existing Home sales data release.

If the data release is good, then the Christmas rally should lead DJIA back to 12180.
If market failed to sustain above support 11785, and if in line with a shock from Euro debt crisis worsen, then market shall come down below 11600.

NASDAQ 100

From the daily chart, market is prone to bearish sentiment, but we are expecting fundamentally strong economic data announcement this week, which might fuel a Christmas rally.

Last week, Nasdaq 100 has hit the strong support 2219-2220 and retraced, 1/3 retracement up to 2260 and started to trade sideways. I forecast NASDAQ100 to retrace up to 2260 again, and test strong resistance 2280.

Strong Resistance: 2295
Resistance2: 2280
Resistance1: 2260
Current Support: 2225
Support2: 2219
Strong Support: 2180

If the announcement is good, the news might lead Nasdaq 100 to go above 2280 and hit 2295, which is the wave target price of the 30 minutes inner wave (up).

Back!

Haha, I am back and I had fun!

I intend to put the forecast up last night but after reading some articles and the financial figures (so many financial data last Thursday and Friday), but........ I manage to read some financial news only and KO (Zzzz...zzZ...) hahaha

Let's see what had happen on the chart.

Board breaking n fire eating workshop

Journey begins!

I'm going to the beach for the weekend for a fun filled, self discovery workshop.
Bringing my yoga mat makes me feel like its a yoga retreat!

P/s, my laptop is with me! *workaholic* ^^




Holiday mood,
Ayumi

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

YM on Wed 14-Dec-2011

YM has touched the 1/3 retracement level at 11909 and rebounded, last traded 11970 (up +70 pts).
If market is bearish biased, breaking down below 11909 and then further dip to test 11710 is possible!

Before the bigger picture come into play, Short term recovery is expected.
Check 1 hour chart, butterfly pattern has formed and reckon market to return to rooftop line 12060.

Transaction (FX)

Quick trade: Long EUR/USD at 1.3191, SL 1.3150 (41 pips), TG 1.3280 (90 pips).

EUR/USD on Tue 13-Dec-2011

While waiting for US Retail sale announcement, we were expecting Euro to reverse from current low 1.3160, If any chance the announcement is disappointing, euro may break below 1.3144, upon breaking below this support, then it will drop further down to 1.2900-950.

However, as we are looking for a reversal opportunity, I prefer this level 1.3160 to hold and market reverse up to 1.3270, then to 1.3520 level.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

US Consumer confidence improves, trade gap narrow from import decline, European Union summit add 200 billion euros to contain the sovereign debt turmoil.

Boosted by good news, DJIA closed at 12184.26 pts. Last Friday (+ 186.56 pts., 1.55%).

DJIA

Technically, 12180 is a double top resistance, tested and broken once on last Wednesday night.
Market shed almost 200 pts. the next day, turned down to support level 11950.

Stimulated by consumer confidence, market recovered on Friday and recovered above 12180.

This type of zigzag pattern is hard to trade; however, market is bullish bias. Market has tested its strong support 11950 and the bullish sentiment may extend for another week.

Since 12180 resistance is broken, we forecast DJIA is going to next level 12300. Upon reaching this level we reckon market to start channeling up testing higher high towards 12700.

We maintain the same view from last week, short term traders can Long and traders prefer to short, wait hunt, and observe for opportunity to unfold.

Monday trade plan: Long at initial shadow 30 pts from opening.
For YM on broco chart: Long at initial shadow near 12130 – 12145, SL 12080 (50 pts), TG 12300 (170 pts).

Trade plan is illustrated below:

NASDAQ100

Similar to Dow, Monday will be another up day target to reach 2340.
Long at initial shadow near 2308, SL 2300, TG 2340.
For NQ on Broco chart: Long at initial shadow near 2306/7, SL 2295, TG 2340.

2340 pts. is also a group resistance level, upon breaking above group resistance 2340, NASDAQ100 will trade towards 2365-2370, and failure to break above this level NASDAQ100 will fall back to 2275 pts, do not compromise your stop loss and trade responsibly.

China set to be top economy by 2030

I was reading some news and today’s headline…
China set to be top economy by 2030…
The World Bank said China will maintain a GDP growth rate of about 8 percent in the coming 20 years.
Link: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-03/24/content_12220043.htm
In 2030, income per capita will be two fold, to reach USD16,000.

Which is equivalent to RM48,000
*based on USD: MYR = 1:3.
I was curious, what is Malaysia’s income per capita?

I Google and found the following:
Malaysian’s PPP is ranked 57-58 which is almost USD14,500.
Singaporean’s PPP is ranked 3-4 which is almost USD57,500.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Disclaimer: This blog cannot guarantee the accuracy of external data~ the blog shall not entice any investment decision, trade responsibly.

CL Update on 6-Dec-2011

Weekly chart seems bullish. With a tendency to test last month’s high 103.37. If market break above 103.37, then it will continue to rise to 106.85.

From Daily chart, yesterday’s black candle seems to be a beginning of a correction,
If market close a black candle below 99.50 then it might lead the start of correction.

However, from intraday chart, there’s no sign of retracement, stochastic is low, and current support 100.20 hold.

Today’s view is Up.
To pick long at current support near 100.20 – 100.50, SL 99.80 and aim to exit at 102.00.
If market break below and close below 99.50, I will abandon long.

FXCM

Continue my trial on FXCM... I am working on application, and I am still comfortable with their platform.
Be it a web-based, or application based, the appearance is very similar.

I placed a market order this morning to Long on DJIA (US30).
And trying the trailing stop for first time.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

From DJIA chart, we can see that the market sentiment is bullish bias.

But DJIA has traded up to previous high. Last Friday high @ 12146, double top resistance 12180. We prefer to hunt for shorting opportunity at this level, reckon the “energy boost” couldn’t last longer than 2 weeks.

If market break above 12180 chances are DJIA going to 12300 and start consolidating by testing higher high towards 12700, hopefully can form a head a shoulder pattern (takes approximately 2 weeks) before it turns down again.

Traders prefer to short: Wait, hunt, observe
Traders prefer to Long: short term.

NASDAQ 100

Bullish sentiment is leading the market, therefore Short term trading go for Long at target exit 2330.

Long term view similar to Dow, hunt patiently for short opportunity at 2330 pts.

If market break above this resistance abandon short view.

Money Management

I was reading the money management by Brent Penfold; it’s from the book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading”.

Shy… cuz I have been reading this book from early of the year, initially I was reading fast… but this chapter stopped me from moving forward. To me it is very academic and it involves many many mathematic calculations, some strange terms... standard deviation, drawdown, catastrophic losses, value payoff…

I will only bring the book out with me whenever I go to the hair saloon, and friends… who goes to the saloon every day? I go there may be once every three months = (

This chapter although is tough for me, yeah, I always thought money management is tough, although I know how to calculate my risk, risk 50 pips, risk 2% of my capital… it is a very very straightforward thing, but I always telling myself, Money Management is not as simple as that… to be honest, I think I am constantly sending the wrong message to my mind.

Finally, I have chosen William Fixed-Risk Money Management, yet arrive higher profits, but with higher volatility too… whatever. Key: Trade more contracts when you are making profits, and trade less when you are losing. Van Tharp share the same thought. Super Trader is another great book that keeps me on track.

However, in turns, by completing this chapter, it gave me insight.

Compare to my past trading experience in Stocks, when I start trading FX, I abandon what I have learned in the past, and re-learn this new market. No matter what market it is, survival is always the main topic. How do we protect our capital and survive in the market is a very important practice, it requires discipline, patience, and courage.

I love my new hair color, and my short fringe.
Ayumi

You may want to read this:

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD

It is a volatile week...

And my view also changed with the week's market action.

Initially it was:

Market fulfilled 1/3 retracement, with the resistance on EMA50 on 4 Hour chart, and divergence in hourly chart, market turn down.
From 1.3440 down to 1.3250.
The trade was successful.

However, market rebounded from this low, and sharply risen above previous resistance, and fulfilled FR50 in a smaller time frame.

Let’s see what happened... and lets take the bearish view bullish... market just found a reliable support and turned up...

And these price action, result in a change of my short term view.

Then my view becomes:

This is a daily chart, and let’s takes the peak in end Oct-2011 as the start of the Fibo retracement, therefore the start of retracement begins from the low formed 2 weeks ago.

Market has found a solid support at 1.3210. Then 1.3260.

Reckon market to continue this retracement, up up up to FR50, which coincide with PowerWave initial wave target price 1.3720.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is easier to read... XD

Nice retracement. 1/3, resisted, and then breakout, retrace to 1/2, and now the price action is mixed, bearish bias.

Let's take a look at daily chart.

GBP/USD has retrace 50% from the double top and travel between the EMA50 in 4 hour chart.
From daily chart outlook, it is bearish bias especially after Friday's sharp fall @ midnight.

I was not feeling well last Friday, after taking the cold medicine, I was half asleep - but still shorted the market - I think aggressive trading/ gambling is still my nature =).

Monday reckon market to continue the quiet price action and slowly move up to 1.5630-640 before it extends another leg down to 1.5530 to test support and return to 2nd support 1.5450.

My trading plan for GBP/USD is to short at the same 1.5630-640 region, SL 1.5680, TG 1.5450 / EOD.

Still Sneezing,
Ayumi

Thanks to Sam Trader!

I luv it soooooooo much!!!


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

FXCM

I have been searching for broker with MT4, great mobile app...
Since I have been using Trade Interceptor, I am trying out FXCM... this post is not promoting any broker, but just a snapshot of how does FXCM looks.

This is the screen shot from their desktop application.

Default Charting, maximize GBP/USD:

Dealing Rates - Advanced:

Dealing Rates - Simple:

I still prefer the "simple dealing rates".. may be because I'm used to it.

Some terminology on my Portfolio (Open Positions) is new...
The GBP/USD short position is opened last night...
what is "Roll"? -0.20?

Overall the color of the trading station is fine.

Gold on 29-11-2011 Tue

Weekly outlook: Neutral

Forecast market to test resistance 1728-1730 today before coming down to lower band 1666-1670.

Might spot for shorting opportunity tomorrow near the said resistance 1728 - 1730.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I have tried multiple ways to access the charts and finally it does… I think MT5 have been updating its client base and therefore my account is sort of deactivated after a period of time.
MT4 is working fine…

DJIA

Quick look at what had happened last week:
Last week DJIA open at 11647.66, gap down, and no pull up, last Friday 25-Nov-2011, DJIA closed at 11,231.78. It was a short trading week, but the falling range is big DJIA shed 415.88 points in a week.

From the technical chart, if we plot Fibonacci Retracement Level from Oct-2011 Low 10404 to recent high 12285, we realized that DJIA has come to a major Fibonacci Retracement Level, which suggest a halt of bearish momentum.

With the worsen Euro zone debt crisis, this support level might just hold for few trading days before DJIA attempt to break lower to 11000 or 10800 level.

Daily Chart: With two small star candles, there is a potential technical rebound to 11500-11550.
For YM on Broco chart, technical rebound to 11450-11500.

4 hour chart: similarly, hunt for Short opportunity at EMA50 which is at the same level 11500 region.

Therefore for short term trading on Monday, I favor Long at 11190 SL 11140 TG 11390.
For YM on Broco chart, Long at 11290 SL 11240 TG 11490.

Hunt for another short opportunity after the technical rebound complete, target the next phase of fall will reach 11000 to 10800 points.

NASDAQ 100

Witness the falling knife in NASDAQ 100, Nasdaq100 opened with a wide gap down of 30 points and shed 69 points from the week’s opening. If we were sitting in opposite direction, definitely the gap hurts!

Coming up this week, with Nasdaq100 traded below EMA200 on daily chart, market is bearish.

4 hour chart: upon touching 2150, market has fulfilled PowerWave wave target price. Technically NASDAQ100 will rebound to 2280, however, with the worsen fundamentals in Euro zone which trigger selling pressure; we reckon the immediate resistance at 2230.

In short, for beginning of this week, we reckon technical rebound up to 2230, and hunt for next shorting opportunity at 2230 or 2280 level. Target exit for short is 2050.

Weekly Forecast (FX)

Good morning traders! Sorry my forecast is late for the week...

I had a wonderful weekend at KL Performing Arts Center with a Hungarian teacher, she is amazing and she shared her life experience; She love Malaysia - it is an amazing country, she traveled so many places but never seen a beautiful country like here, with more than 4 religion in the same land, and we can still see the same street with Mosque, Hindu Temple, Buddhist temple, Church...

She shared her life during world war and how the country has been teared off and how Hungarian being pressured... and due to that Hungarian is sensitive, artistic... :) So I am thankful for this wonderful land we are living, and please treasure every moment, and live our life to the fullest!

GBP/USD

While I have started the chart, market has gap up and bullish candle has formed.
I do not know it is a technical rebound but I think this bullish sentiment is going to be short lived.

After falling for past two weeks, without breaking below 1.5400, market is going to consolidate between 1.5400 support and resistance 1.5750-800.

I reckon market to move slowly up to 1.5650 early of this week until mid-week (butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart confirms the reversal).

The consolidation might last for a week or two, main resistance 1.5750-800.

However, if market couldn't survive above 1.5400 support, then it is going to fall to our next target 1.5250.


EUR/USD

Weekly chart: 4 black candle on weekly chart, major support 1.3150.

Daily chart: bearish

4 Hour chart: bearish

1 Hour chart: butterfly pattern has formed. Suggest a short term technical rebound.

Resistance 2: 1.3730
Resistance 1.3430
Support 1: 1.3150-1.3200
Support2: 1.3050

Market has been trading below EAM50 on 4 hour chart which means bearish. With the butterfly pattern in 1 hour chart, it suggests a short term technical rebound to immediate resistance 1.3430.

However, after falling for 4 weeks, market may trade in consolidation for 2 weeks before the next trend emerge. Be patient and wait for trading opportunity at main support / resistance.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Every week when I look at the chart, I would ask myself, is my view still valid?
Will I see it differently this time?

And when I just about to start the forecast for the week, I start to doubt myself:
Why would I call for waterfall?

For those who followed my post, I think you may want to throw a stone. ^_< hahaha although last week market tumbled and we make some money, it doesn’t mean that we will be right all the time. I keep questioning myself again and again until I finally “decide” what I want to do next, I accept my forecast for the week, and whether market *really* move in favor, or opposite, It is not in my control. We always need to *decide*, and if we are right, we *catch*, and we *ride*. We always need to *plan*. A famous US cabaret style belly dancer – Sandra, she teach me to “decide”, and “plan” your next move. I remember mentor JC told me the same, “Fail to Plan = Plan to fail”. So, back to the week’s forecast, I may be right, I may be wrong. Let’s see! DJIA

Economic Data mixed, US economy starts to stabilize, with lower unemployment claims, housing start drops, producer price decline, and retail sale climbed showing mild demand… read our Weekly Report by Sifu.

It is not easy to forecast the market direction based on fundamental news… there are simply too many news and I don’t know which one to follow, I think many traders confused also. XD
So I stick to technical forecast and our PowerWave.

Daily chart: Consolidation. DJIA traded very close to its 200 days EMA.
4 Hour chart: market has traded below EMA50 which means the bullish sentiment has shifted to a lower gear.

For the past 3 weeks, DJIA was trading in a narrowing channel (symmetrical triangle), with DJIA traded below 11900, it signals the bottom support line has been compromised and it has temporary became its resistance. Check 4 Hour Chart.

We expect market to be quiet for the beginning of 21-Nov-11 week.
Resistance: 11900.
Support: 11680.

We favor to short at the resistance 11900, SL around 11960, Target at support 11680.
For YM on Broco Cont chart (last traded 11767): Short 11930, SL 12000, TG 11650.


NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 has fallen below the group support level 2280 and we expect the bearish sentiment to continue on Monday, next strong support for Nasdaq 100 is 2220 which is approximately 30 points away.

Daily Trading to Short at 15 pts. away from opening, Stop Loss 15 pts. away, Target 2225-2220 (to fill the gap in October-2011).

Weekly Forecast (FX)

EUR/USD
Weekly candle: bearish
Daily candle: potential reversal on Thursday and Friday, but selling pressure hit hard when EUR/USD tries to break above 1.3600, highest 1.3613. Close at 1.3514.

4 Hour chart: bearish

Daily entry: Short with initial shadow.

Trading Plan:
Short 1.3550, SL 1.3600 (50 pips),
TG: 1.3370 (180 pips).

GBP/USD

I was bullish on GBP/USD since two weeks ago and my monthly outlook was to wait for GBP/USD to breakout to the top and hit 1.6350.

However, market consolidated for 2 weeks (week 31/10, and week 7/11), resisted at 1.6160 and supported at 1.5860.

Finally last week, GBP/USD broke below major support 1.5860 and last traded at 1.5794.

It is not as per what I have expected the market to be... and so... I choose to trade the opposite direction === to sell GBP/USD the following week :)

The support we identified 1.5860 has turned to resistance and market should find current support at 1.5700.
Breaking below this current support 1.5700, GBP/USD will fall to 1.5560.

Daily Trading:
Short 1.5830, SL 1.5870 (slightly above the identified resistance),
TG1: 1.5700.
TG2: 1.5560.

Quick Update on YM

Like what we have forecasted on DJIA.
This is a very very profitable trading week.

We short YM at 12165, and SL 12235 (yes, a bigger SL fo 70 pts), but market also fulfilled the whole range of 465 pts TG 11700 last night!

Clap clap!! It is a turnaround to most of the trading account, isn't it? although my next target is 12600, this trade has doubled the account (scary for those who were on the opposite side of trade but didn't put a stop loss).

So, the trade was closed, happily taken the money and today will go out with my nephew and sister-in-law. Family day.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good day fellow traders

DJIA

2 weeks ago, DJIA hit 12284 pts. resistance, market tumbled more than 300 pts. to 11630 and currently consolidate in big range, last traded at 12153.70.

Remember the magic number 80? For PowerWave Trades, plot your Fibo Retracement and check the magic on your own.
80 in weekly chart, works.
80 in daily chart, works.

So we will use the same concept in 4 hour chart to hunt for trading opportunities.
Identify Resistance: 12190 (adjusted 40pts higher from last week forecast)
Support: 11730
Major Support： 11650 (Sarah support the same view)

Quote from last week:

P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.

So let's say if 12288 couldn't stop the bull, we might see the market drive up all the way to 12450, so, abandon your shorts if this resistance fails.

Aggressive Short at initial shadow 12180, SL 12250-280, TG 11730, TG2 11650.
For YM on Broco Chart: Short 12165, SL 12235, TG 11700, TG2 11600.

Nasdaq 100

Market trading in big range.
Key Resistance: 2408
Key Support: 2280

Nasdaq 100 closed at 2350 - We expect market to continue the bullish strength towards 2382 on Monday.

Hunt for shorting opportunity when Nasdaq 100 trading near key resistance 2408. Similar to Dow, if market break above 2408, then it might go north to 2435. Abandon short if the resistance fails.

GBP/USD on 14-Nov-2011 Mon

GBP/USD

Monthly outlook: same, consolidation with bullish bias towards 1.6350.
Weekly Candle: 2nd indecisive candle on weekly chart, market testing important support / resistance level.

Lets look at the same chart... Daily Chart for GBP/USD

Important Resistance level: 1.6160
Important Support level: 1.5860

Last week, GBP/USD attempt to test 1.6160, but resisted at 1.6130 and came down to 1.5866 without touching either the identified support / resistance level.

In fact, I chicken out to buy when market form a bearish candle on Wednesday, it is very close to support level... However, on Thursday market form a doji, and a positive candle on Friday.

So, it is the market doing consolidation, and fulfilled the initial shadow for November month candle.

From monthly outlook, I am bullish, but patiently waiting for breakout to the top, target 1.6350.

Intraday chart (4 Hour)

Definitely a consolidation pattern.
And as per the chart, even after missing the opportunity to long near support 1.5860, we can capture long opportunity at the mid point 1.5990, with a bigger risk tolerance level...

Day Trade:
Aggressive Long at initial shadow (40 pips) 1.6020. SL 1.5970, TG 1.6150 (or EOD).

Position Trade:
Long at 1.5980 SL 1.5900 TG 1.6350.

Related:
GBP/USD on 11-Nov
GBP/USD on 8-Nov

the Days...

Remember the days when I just began trading, yeah we have some amateur investors, trying to become traders.

Back then, when I just started, I remember a friend told me:
"You want to commit suicide, jump down from a 20 floor building is faster, and easier, never attempt trading".
*So trading have a BAD name?*

That friend attended the same business school... yes, he is good in business, properties... but I don't understand why he rejects stocks.  I just started with stocks.
I never attend any courses back then.. just regularly attend seminars, talks, market updates, and read a lot of investopedia, learn from the chart..

Friends who were trading together, they don't trade anymore now.
When I move on to Futures, I have different group of friends, but they were still some investors trading stocks, and I only have 1 very successful futures trader friend.  He also stopped trading futures now.  He is successful, but he don't trade now.  Tax is high in US... :)

I meet some guys at the seminar, and they trade, everyday, every hour when the market is open, I am glad that I know them, at least, I know, there are still plenty of people in the derivatives market, successful trading, is not alone...
That is before I meet Sifu DAR.
I try to trade with them, but there're conditions, I need to pass certain exams... I need to become a licensed broker... need to be cool.
I can never become a broker, I never study enough, and I never have the guts to go back to school and get a degree... *sorry*
So, we can only say Hi, and recommend each other some friends and resources.

So, I continue to blog.  I blog since 2005, started with some Chinese blogging, articles, movies.. life related stuff, then seriously into trading stuff since 2007... (It has been so long).

So keeping a journal works.  You can always go back, and check your mental state, remind yourself that you have traveled so far, so consistently, so strongly, step by step moving forward.

Don't GIVE UP, Keep GOING.

Today I receive a link from a blogger friend.. its a youtube video, about floor trading, the title is "Floored".. Google it if you want to see.  It got me thinking so much...

Electronic trading, is cool.
You can trade whenever you are available, you can trade wherever you like, can be Bali, can be Malaysia, can be China, can be Melbourne.. you can TRADE.

It is cool.
It gives us total freedom, but the price to pay?
Very little, except if you like to trade with a BIG group of people, yelling and shouting together.

It is the same world here, and out there, I used to have some friends, trading... and left.
I wish you come back soon, and lets trade.

Cheers
Ayumi getting moody

Updates on 11-Nov-2011

EUR/USD

Unable to break above resistance 1.3860, and last night EUR/USD break below support 1.3600. EUR/USD shift to a bearish gear to test next support 1.3500 and strong support 1.3400.

YM

I am 1 day early to short the market... and just missed the 400 points range.
I expect market to consolidate a bit while testing support 11570.

If YM continue to drop below 11570, then shall hit target 11450 soon.
Enter with Fibo range:
Long 11600 SL11550 TG 11850 (or EOD)
Short 12000 SL 12050 TG 11800 (or EOD)

Aggressive trade, Enter with Initial Shadow:
Short 11750 SL 11800 TG 11450.

GBP/USD

For some readers who follow the previous post, I am looking forward to GBP/USD hitting above 1.6160, however, with the market being resisted at 1.6130 and close near support, I abandon my long.

Expect market to test support 1.5860 (previous 1/3 retracement).

If we switch the chart upside down, it might also signal the start of the GBP/USD melt...
I take no action to long nor short but wait.

GBP/USD on 8-Nov-11 Tue

Monthly Chart: consolidation with bullish bias
Weekly Chart: 1st bearish candle after 3 consecutive winnings.
Daily Chart: Bullish - fulfilled 1/3 retracement.

From the bullish outlook on the daily chart, GBP/USD has completed its 1/3 retracement on last Thursday (3/11). If this support level 1.5860 is holding up strongly without being re-test again this week, then we shall observe GBP/USD testing last week high 1.6160, once it break above 1.6160 then set to go to next target 1.6350.

Intraday 4 hour chart:
GBP/USD has found a temporary support at 1.6000 region, has been bouncing off the EMA50 support lines, which means, after the retracement, market consolidate and once breakout (BKO) it is ready to go.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.6050, and I am going to trade aggressively today to enter with initial shadow, coupled with EMA50 short term trading strategy.

Yes, there might be two entries if market show us these realiable pattern.

Position Trade:
Long 1.6007
SL 1.5950 (50 pips)
Target 1.6310 (300 pips)

Today going out to watch Real Steel, I think this movie has been showing for quite some time.

And I couldn't trade from my mobile recently (for IG), I don't know why, may be they blocked access to certain websites.... aiks... I think I have to bring my laptop out with me...
I find this broker quite reliable (till date) and do not want to change any time soon.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hi all, sorry that the update is rather late this week, I were busy for the weekend coaching, attending my friend's dance studio opening, a few gathering and meetings, cutting cakes, pot luck... the weekend is simply --- packed and filled with a lot of blessings.

I hope all have enjoyed a great weekend, and those who are celebrating Hari Raya Haji (Malaysia & Singapore) have fun! Today is the last day of the long holiday, let’s make it count!

Wall Street:
We have NFP announcement last week, job creation is only 80k numbers, and the numbers indicating a rather stagnant job growth, unemployment rate is dropped to six months low (yey!) 9%, previous month 9.1%.

There are many other part of the world actually has higher unemployment... Spain 20.5% (September 2011), Euro Zone 10.2%.
P/s Malaysia: 3.1%. (August 2011)

Related: http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?lang=en
Latest Data here http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=275%3Anational-summary-data-page-real-sector&catid=91%3Ansdp&lang=en

DJIA

For power wave traders, you'll recognize that 80 is a good number for DJIA.
Previous week Dow hit to 12288, and last week in line with MF Global news, market tumbled, shed more than 550 points in two days, and recovered 50% on Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday is a neutral trading day and as usual we stay out of NFP.

What do we expect next?

From a smaller time frame, I am expecting market to recover up to 12150 region (another number 80, hey!)

P/s: if the bull is strong, we may see market test previous resistance 12288, break above it and form a marginal top @ 12450-500 region before the waterfall begins.

This week is a crucial week to watch for reversal, divergence, resistance, etc. etc. to catch the south train... can you smell it? Mid November we expect the rise to HALT, and I am EXCITED!!!

Short Term daily trading, Monday view: Consolidation bias up - Enter with Fibo Range:
Entry for YM (on my Broco MT4 CONT chart):
Long 11750
Short 12130

On IG Wall Street CFD:
Long 11810
Short 12190

And I will park another short at 12150 / 12210 for position trade.

NASDAQ 100
Last week Day 1: Gap down, Day 2: Down, Day 3: Gap up, close gap, Day 4: gap up, Day 5: neutral...

Support: 2330
Monday: consolidation bias up to test resistance 2370. Nasdaq 100 trading at 2360 so the profit range is too small compare to the risk levels... (Risk 30 points: Reward 10 points), let’s say market return to 2nd resistance 2390 the risk is still less than 1:2... So I suggest to stay out of this market and wait for divergence / reversal pattern to form either at R1: 2370, or R2: 2390 by mid/end of this week.

Transaction (FX)

Yesterday position closed.
Last night opened another position after BKO, Short position opened @ 1.5945, earlier preset SL 40 pips but manage to move SL to entry (floating profit 50 pips), target shift to 1.5800 (145 pips).

Last night shorted YM, and very bearish after CNN announcement (forgot what was the news bcz I am half way sleeping), I shifted my SL to entry but market reversed and killed my position.

Market has fulfilled 1/3 retracement after the week's fall and I believe the market will continue consolidate for a while, going to test Tuesday low again near 11550 region.
Resistance at 11800.

Transaction (FX)

Short GBP/USD at 1.6020, SL 30 pips (1.6050) TG 140 pips (1.5880).

MF Global file for bankruptcy on Monday 31-Oct-2011

OCTOBER 31, 2011, 6:57 PMLEGAL/REGULATORY
Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money
BY BEN PROTESS, MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED AND SUSANNE CRAIG
9:55 p.m. | Updated
Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.

You have to give, before you can get

It was a wonderful team effort last weekend and the result is far far better than what I initially expected.
Sifu conducted 3 seminars in total, 2 for the broker house, and 1 seminar to launch GTI.

For those who do not know my Sifu DAR Wong, or my mentor JC, they would think that I am bias... may be I raise them so high up on the pedestal, but Yes, they are, if you don't agree, just check it out, and I believe, time will tell.

My Sifu - a great master with 22 years of trading experience did two seminars for free, travel from Singapore, and to Malaysia - Penang, and now coming to KL... he shouldn't need to travel so far, so rapidly... he do not need to care for the people around here, it is not his obligations...

When it comes to our day to day life... some times we will compare with others, and begin calculating.
Why someone who is so quiet, can get so many support?  May be we will think, he is not that good looking, he don't speak as fluent as a speaker shall speak, or he is not as tall... sort of comparisons..

Yeah, life is not fair.

But look, over time, when we first started, we never have any expectations, and after we are getting better, we start to have higher expectations, not to ourselves, but to others as well.

Yeah, not fair..

Like, Women can keep Long hair, and contrary to that weird if a guy keep long hair go for rebonding / curls..
Gals should have put on makeups...

But this is also what makes us feel depressed, upset, but... relax, and get up and get moving.

Recognize the mental state, it is VALID, it is ok to feel depressed.
It is just normal.  Sunrise, Sunset, Rain and Shine.
Acknowledge it, relax, get up and get moving.

Tonight celebrate mentor's Birthday! Yey!

GBP/USD on 31-Oct-2011

GBP/USD last traded at 1.5973 which has already hit our daily target.
however, look at 4H chart it is going to touch the support line 1.5950.

If GBP/USD continue to piece below 1.5950, but reverse up, I will Long the GBP/USD -- we forecast the week is a sideway market either trading to test low, or test resistance 1.6160.

2pm is the decision making point, and once I hit the Long, I will preset the stop loss at the point where it goes to the lowest point, this would be a short term trade which might only last for 4 hours, before the announcement at 6pm as I printed on the chart above.

The butterfly pattern is emerging in 1 Hour chart which also support the short term long view.

Cheers to all.

DJIA on 31-Oct-2011

The pattern is getting clearer and clearer...

Hope that we can get some Elmo's for Christmas...

Tuesday will be a public event to launch our World GTI.
It will be Sifu's last talk for year 2011, then we will have Loooong holidays, until after CNY.

Shall plan for some gatherings and market update and see how's everyone progress and answers some questions, and chase for the homework associates owe it to themselves =)

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Hi handsome and pretty traders, it is Haloween and I hope all have fun, just came to know why is "haloween" from one of our forum writer HP.

Our team went up to Penang last weekend for couple of talks and launched our GTI in Penang, the respond is good and I am glad to see so many quality subscribers from this land, not to mention the heavenly hawker food and char kuey teow, assam laksa... yummy yum

ops, sorry for off topic a little bit, lets look at the market update for Nasdaq 100:

Nasdaq 100 has break above 2400 and it is approaching the strong resistance level 2435, we have seen some weakness on Daily Chart especially on last Friday.

I am expecting a sideway market testing either the support level 2350, or going to the top 2435.

Advise to stay out of this market and observe for strong reversal signal, may be in mid November.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

G20 meeting has finally came out with a mutual agreement in view to "cool down" the Euro-Zone Debt Crisis.

DJIA has risen ahead of the announcement, and last Friday we finally see the bull slow down closed the week at 12231.10.

Weekly Chart: Bullish
Daily Chart: The bull shows fatigue with a reduced day range in line with the concern over Europe Concern.
Intraday: 30 minutes chart is showing a divergence which suggest a temporary retracement.

I am still bullish on Dow, after the retracement, market may resume uptrend and looking at next target 12450 and ultimate 12750 in early November.

From 30 minutes chart, it has hit 2L in line with a stochastic divergence, therefore I forecast market to do a slight retreat back to current support 11950.
In the event market falls below 11800 then I might have a second thought of the continuity of the uptrend.

Quick Update on NQ

although our forecast is right about NQ - reached 2385 high last night, we expect the bullish sentiment to continue.

Although I am agressive and aim to enter at 2308, market didn't retrace but straight up to 2385.

Today I forecast the market to continue to surge higher to hit 2400 - 2430.

Aggressive trade:
Enter Long with initial shadow at 2354 which is also 50% of Fibo Retracement from yesterday's high-low.

DJIA

Bold uptrend.

Daily chart we have seen some very bullish EMA crossings.
There's no sign of reversal yet, stochastic normal.
Daily candle normal.

Strong support at 11480.
(Dow keep making Loooong shadows on weekly chart, beware of any long position)
If the positive news keep pumping in the market, it might go all the way to 12300.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Last week we forecast market to trade in range capped between 11580-11800.
It was a choppy week, Monday Down, Tuesday Up, then Down, Up, and finally Friday make a final boost to 11800.

As spoken last week, DJIA shall face resistance at previous pincer top and 11800 shall be the highest it can go. Clue 1:
Last Friday, DJIA surged to 11800 and close at 11808.80, break above our resistance 11800.
Clue 2:
EMA4 and EMA200 almost crossing.
Therefore,
the chart looks bullish with immediate target poised at 11950.

Support 11650.

Next target is 12100.

Average Trading Range (Weekly Range): 640 pts
Average Trading Range (Daily Range): 205 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Quote my own forecast last week 17-Oct-2011 Mon:

NASDAQ 100 closed the week at 2371.94 still have rooms to "grow".
More optimism on this market and forecast the super bull to go all the way until next resistance at 2395-2400.

To trade for reversal profit, observe 30 minutes chart (like I do) for top down reversal confirmation.

Reckon market to form a double top in line with a stochastic divergence near the resistance level 2395 - 2400.

Instead of going up, Nasdaq 100 traded down to 1/3 retracement level.
I am still bullish on Nasdaq 100.

Sideline:
Watch NQ_CONT chart.
It was trading at 2328.50 and the market is showing a pause for the uptrend.
lets say market retrace, it may drop to 2270 maximum, which we identify this is a strong support, therefore NQ shall not fall below 2270, it is a good level to pick long.

However, if market fall below 2270, stay out.
For aggressive trader like me, aim to enter long at EMA50 (4H), which is 2308.
and aim to exit at 2400.

The BIGGEST Catch for next month is top down reversal as we mentioned the resistance for Nasdaq 100 is 2400, NQ chart is 2430, and therefore, don't forget to observe for reversal in daily and 30 minutes chart, exit at the right time, and never hold your profit until it turns sour.

Till then, Cheers

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Good morning traders! I was feeling sick last night and sorry for the late update.
Its a new day and lets hunt for some good trading opportunities.

DJIA

DJIA is boosted up last Friday by strong recovery in US retail sales, it closed the week at 11649.

Technically DJIA is trading back to previous strong resistance level (pincer top) 11720 and EMA200 - which is only 70 points away.
Traders and Investors are suspicious of the continuity of the up-trend.

Forecast market to trade in range for the week 11580 - 11800. Suggest to stay out.
If there's open position, observe market reaction near resistance.

Just in case market releases good news and DJIA break above 11800, next target could reach 11950.


NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ 100 closed the week at 2371.94 still have rooms to "grow".
More optimism on this market and forecast the super bull to go all the way until next resistance at 2395-2400.

To trade for reversal profit, observe 30 minutes chart (like I do) for top down reversal confirmation.
Reckon market to form a double top in line with a stochastic divergence near the resistance level 2395 - 2400.

Related:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.NDX

EUR/USD on 17 Oct 2011 Mon

Monthly Candle: Yet to finish
Suspect next strong resistance to be at 1.4130 region, based on last month (September - Bearish candle) to this month's (October) fibobacci retracement levels.

Weekly Candle, super bullish, proven last week's reversal pattern and EUR/USD managed to crossed above 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level (1.3760) and almost touching my weekly target of 1.3900 region.

Next target is tough but possible.
Early of this week, EUR/USD may face resistance at daily ema200 1.3950 which is also around my profit target range.

Although my forecast was right, my entry is not good, i queue to enter when market made 2L, hoping for a 1/3 retracement, but market didn't.

I queue to enter at retracement, when market hit 3L, but market didn't.

When I chase market and enter on Thursday, market consolidated a bit, before going up, without making 1/3 retracement.

hahahaa... better sharpen my entry.

Trading Plan: to Long

EUR/USD closed at 1.3879, Monday can enter Long with initial shadow around 1.3820 region if market didn't gap up / down.

SL can be slightly below the group support level 1.3780 region.

Target 1.3950.
Next target 1.4080, take note monthly candle resistance 1.4130.

EUR/USD on 11-Oct-2011 Tue

Up Up

Looking forward to a fibo retracement back to
support 1 : 1.3543, or
Strong Support (Support 2): 1.3464.

Weekly Target to reach
 TG1: 1.3740,
TG2: 1.3910.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

DJIA

Dow rebounded strongly after touching low at 10400 regions, it reaches our weekly bear target in just 2 days!

The strong rebound has bring DJIA back to 11200 as per Sarah forecast, which is also a desired level to short,
In line with a bearish reversal candlestick pattern on daily chart.

We forecast DJIA to trade down back to support 11000 region during early of the week,
While weekly candlestick pattern proved a high resilient at 10400 support,
I suspect Dow to mark another top at 11350 region towards end of the week.

Traders can short at initial shadow during early of the week,
but observe for long opportunity when Dow approaches 11000 support regions.

YM

Closes at 11046.
Short at initial shadow 60 points away from opening (est. 11120).
Observe for Long opportunity when YM approaches 10900 support regions.

NASDAQ 100

Target for the week (Up) 2290 resistance.
Forecast market to face resistance at current level and going down to test support 2170.

Good to short on Monday at initial shadow 2216, SL 2228 (Fri High), TG 2170 or close EOD (End of Day).
Aim for long opportunity during mid-week when Nasdaq 100 trading at 2170 or 2135 as spoken.

Related:
Last Week's Forecast
http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/2011/10/djia-and-nasdaq-100.html
APSRI DJIA Forum
http://www.pwforex.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=8

APSRI Forum here: http://www.pwforex.com/forum/
For details on ProMaster program that I have attended, click here: http://www.traderpromaster.com/index.html

Back to Ayumi Trader Blog,
click here: http://ayumi216.blogspot.com/

EUR/USD on 4-Oct-2011 Tue

We observed a triple pincer on daily chart and signifies EUR/USD is strongly resisted at this level (1.3660).

Yesterday is a free fall market, EUR/USD lost 160 pips and formed a bearish candle.

This morning the market is rather quiet, as usual, while we are closer and closer to Euro open, I reckon market to make a pull back, resisted, and continue trading down.
Weekly target is 1.2930.

Would the pull back make EUR/USD return to 1.3335?? I don't know, aggressive trader can enter and short at 1.3230, SL 50 pips, TG 150 pips.

YM on Tue 4-Oct-2011

Congratulations to traders who short YM at 10900.
wonderful slide last night, so blessed and such a beautiful profit range of 300 points!

Again, YM will be supported (temporary) at previous week low.
YM open at 10550, aggressively, today will place another pending order to short at 10620, SL 100 pts, TG 300 pts.

(just realised I have entered a wrong SL figure during yesterday's post... sorri sorri)

Forecast market to test 10600 resistance, if break above 10600, next place to short is 10770.

Selling pressure is high!
Once YM break below 10550 (yesterday low) it will come back to 10450 as per my weekly target.

Rehearsal~ Donut & Cookies

Ayumi is very happy today cuz it is a special day!

My niece b'day today!

And today is last week before weekend's performance.

Today after my solo practice (ya... Dance from 7pm for 3 hours), I receive a yummy yummy reward!

^^



So blessed~



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