YM on Tue 31-May-2011

Trading close to resistance... 12650 is the desired level to watch for short.
If market crossed above 12700, then Dow shall rally towards 12900 top.

My plan for Today and tomorrow.
Hunt for Shorts! Wait for the "V". :)

Bond Bond Bond

Resources:
How to Trade the Other Sovereign Debt Mess By: Kelley Holland
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43113097

Video:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=3000023946

China Behind Massive Foreign Buying in Japanese Bonds By: Reuters
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43213037

Some lines extracted from this article:

Foreigners bought a net 4.696 trillion yen ($57.7 billion) of Japanese bonds in the five weeks to May 20, a record amount of purchases for any five consecutive weeks since data began to be compiled in its current form in 2005.

"As the euro started to suffer from debt problems again, some reserve managers could have shifted some of their euro-denominated to assets to the yen," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
This was similar to last year when China's foray in the short-term yen market coincided with worries about Greece's ability to pay back debt.
But China quickly moved out of that position, selling a large amount of yen bills in August to take profits after the yen rose. Market players said at that the time China was unlikely to keep a large amount of funds in the yen because yields were low.

Gold on 30-May-2011

Gold traded as high as 1539 last Friday and closes 1537 near high.
it has formed a bullish candle that wiped off the previous resistance of 1527 after 3 days of struggle.

However, when I zoom into 30 mins chart, a divergence has happened, yes, I'm bearish on Gold.
If the resistance level of 1538 can hold, then we shall see gold continue its correction to current support 1515, support 1505 and target 1465.

I have a short position in Gold at 1532 and if the market triggered my SL, then I will just forget about catching the short, as we are coming close to the end of QE2, there are simply too many news, rumours and fundamentals that might affect the market!

I mentioned my Annual Target for Gold here: Gold on 21-Mar-2011
All Related to Gold

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Traders are cautious!

There's only 2 more trading days to end the monthly candle.
Can DJIA close below 12330?

Honestly, I prefer this scenario to happen!
DJIA has been trading near 12450 region and last night it traded to high of 12487, and closes back at this resistance 12453 with a small positive candle on Daily Chart.

As spoken last week, I am going to short at 12650, market never turn up, then I switched to 12488, but the market didn't make this happen for us too!
Again, during these last 2 trading days (Monday and Tuesday), I am going to keep my patience and be alert of the development of DJIA when it approach 12488 again!

Check again on weekly chart, DJIA has closed another bearish candle for this week, it is a very crucial week for the Dow, if resistance remain strong, we are going to see the downfall early of June, if the waterfall happens, we expect the market to find support near 12220, and 12000.

However, if Dow has successfully crossed above 12700, if the policy maker made some decision to stimulate the economy (again), I am gonna stay out, the market might go to 13000 and 13300.

Have a fruitful week ahead!

Related: Last Week's Forecast - DJIA on 23-May-2011

Transaction (Gold)

My 1st Short @ 1524.70 (3 contracts) was triggered a SL at 1523 yesterday, I have moved the Stop Loss after seeing Gold traded below 1520.

Last night, I have queued another short at 1532 (9 contracts).
Stop loss 1539.
Target 1504.

At the same time, I shorted Silver 37.98 (3 contracts).
Stop loss 38.28 (30 pips)
Target 37.68 (30 pips)
it is a quick trade based on ProMaster 2 hour strategy.
Market came down to 3745 (50 pips) and rebounded.
Taken profit on Silver 1:1.

Still riding on the Gold Short trade.
Gold last done 1537.50, I am currently riding on a loss of 5.5 pts.
Market is trading near my stop loss, and once I am triggered, I am gonna stay out.

Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps

What does this mean?
Coming up, we will be posting on the Sovereign Credit updates this weekend.

Transaction (Gold)

Last night 9.54pm (GMT+8) 24-May-2011:
Shorted Gold at 1524.70.
SL 1532.70
TG 1500.70

This is a counter trend trade, my long term view on Gold is still Bullish.

Has been parking a Long at 1440 since last week.

Gold on Monday 23-May-2011

Last week Gold was trading at a triangle / flag consolidation and therefore we were picking long at bottom 1470-80 region however, didn't manage to get our entry.
Last Friday Gold has shown some strength upon the Euro-Zone debt crisis, and were trading above 1510 resistance at close near high at 1513, highest 1516.

This bullish strength might resume this week. Observe resistance at 1525, in which can pressure Gold to test support 1485 again, once broken, strong support at 1440.

Yes, I am still slightly bearish on Gold :)

I mentioned that my Annual Target for Gold, Related Post here: Gold on 21-Mar-2011
All Related to Gold

Wall Street, Euro-Zone

Friday, Euro fall from 1.4320 to 1.4160 (160 pips, > 1%) against the US Dollar over the disagreements on how to handle Greek debt problem and worries on the default. Euro-zone officials were expected to pressure Greece to announce more austerity actions / steps on its debt problem.

At the same time, IMF approved 26 Billion Euro Loan for Portugal.

The news and economic pressure spread across Euro-Zone to Wall Street, last night, Dow lose -93.28 pts (0.74%) and close at 12512.04

Dow posted the 3rd losing week, weaken 0.7% this week.

DJIA on Mon 23-May-2011

Coming week, I am expecting Dow to continue trading in a downward channel, resistance at 12650 region which might attract Sellers to enter into the market.
12460 is the level which Dow is currently showing a temporary support.

My view on Dow is slightly bearish and I am expecting a pull up above 12650 to establish new Shorts.
Short Term trade aim at 12460 as profit target.

From a bigger picture, do you see something similar in play?
I am using a YM Chart as the study guide, I have marked the similar channel with a black crayon line.
Once YM breakout below the channel bottom, you will see continuous 4-5 days of deep, fast correction.

However, if the US Government is doing something else to stimulate the economy (again), market might continue the uptrend, go above 13000 and aim at 13300 target in 2 weeks.

I am joining the game to short at 12650 channel top and would hold the position for 2 weeks looking forward to successful break-Down.

Nasdaq-100 on 23-May-2011

Currently trading at mid range, stay out.

Gold on 20-May-2011

Thank God its Friday again!

This morning we celebrated my brother's birthday.
I had a wonderful chat with him last night, again, I remember the school really doesn't teach what is most important, the knowledge that my brother has acquired so far, is based on his own research, studies, trial and error, and now, experience, and continue to trial and error and continue to research.

To find a good developer is not easy, to develop something good, is not easy either.

We need to acquire the skills set with a lots and lots of hard work.
Consistent Effort.

Nobody can teach, or rather I would say, SKILLS is not easy to impart to the other person, because, we do not know what the other don't know, sometimes, we might end up teaching him something he totally don't understand, doesn't intend to learn, etc.. making it a waste of time to both the coach and the learner.

To be effective, drop everything that you know, park your experience or past research aside, re-learn something new, and set your objectives CLEAR.

We are different, our objectives are different.

Different objectives lead to different expertise, we master trading in different time frame, we realize our preferred pattern, we found our 1 bullet - 1 kill trade, START now, START from the OBJECTIVES, only when we are clear of what we want! Ask yourself, do you really want it?

Yes, you want it, and you will make it happen for yourself, you are totally capable of being who you intend to be.
Keep your determination ALIVE, by reminding yourself again and again of WHY it's important to you.

当你决定做一件事情的时候，全世界都会帮你。
When you have decided to do ONE thing, the WORLD, will help you.
First of all, decide.
and, Follow.
Follow through.

Gold on Friday 20-May-2011

It has been trading in the range, and I am still observing.
Current resistance 1500.
Current resistance 1480.
I expect Gold to continue trading in this narrow range.
Short term Breaking either end lead to 1522 and 1466.

4 Hour Chart

Daily Chart

Related: Gold on 18-May-2011
Gold on Mon 16-May-2011
I mentioned that my Annual Target for Gold, Related Post here: Gold on 21-Mar-2011
All Related to Gold

Teacher Ran~

My belly dance teacher Ran has stopped teaching for 6 months... and I miss her miss her miss her~ Finally I pick up the phone, asked for her private classes, and certifications.

Yes, first step.

Good news is that, she does certification!  Bad news is that... Teacher is still tied up with projects... and myself too!  I have a project to complete by end of August 2011.
the 3rd MODF 2011, Solo, Troupe...
Have to take care of classes, take care of my team member, take care of my own contest... take care of trading...

Time, I though you were slow, but you simply ran away without a whistle.
I guess it is fair everyone has 24 hours a day, but... who has actually treasure every moment and make things work?

Family project until mid of June, trade less.
Competition coming up, intense training from mid of June until end of August.

ah.... it is really not easy to choreograph a song!  Especially for competition! I am so dying to be the champion!

Do my best, improve 1% every other day =)
So by August, I m 100% better :P

Gold on 18-May-2011

Breakout happened.
guess what, break to the bottom, and triggered both of my positions.  Gold is trading at 1479 now.

Although the indicators are showing a possible lift, I do not buy into indicators now.
Well, I am going to sit back, relax, and believe that the retracement is going to push Gold down to 1470 and further 1440.
My Long, KIV =)

Bless all.

Start with an End in Mind

You meet thousands of people
and none of them really touch you
and then, you meet one person
and your life has changed
forever

Got this line from the movie "Love and Other Drugs".
So touching at the end and I have been crying~~ "I didn't know that I am enough, until I meet you."

I know my life has changed, forever.  Thanks to a friend for life, thanks my mentor JC, you have changed me.
The way of putting things into perspective, keeping an objective, start with an End in Mind.

Bless all, bless everyone, best of everything, today is a blessed day!

Happy Wesak =D

Working Order
Long Gold @ 1493, SL $5, TG1 1503 (Intraday)
Long Gold @ 1490, SL $7 @ 1483, TG2 $30 @ 1520 / Close by Friday (Breakout)

Related Gold Forecast on Monday 16-May-2011

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

I have been reading on the US trade deficit, budget deficit, inflation numbers, production cost, cost of living, etc...
while QE2 is coming to an end, the mixed figures is just troubling my mind that how far can DJIA go?

Raising the Debt Limit, or Default?
Failing to raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling would force US to default - that would inflict catastropic damage to the American economy.

FOMC meeeting minutes on Thursday 19-May 2am (GMT+8 - MY/SG Time) is an important annoucement to watch.

DJIA on Mon 16-May-2011

I am not a pessimist, but I do not foresee DJIA to break above 13000,
or to re-test 13136 level (pre-crisis high in 2008) anytime soon in this week.
Previous high of 12880 region is now a tough level to work on!

This week, I forecast DJIA trading sideway,
with the range limited to 12700 - 12520 prior to FOMC meeeting minutes on Wednesday night.
Aggressive Long with initial shadow near 12550,
SL below 12520 and aim for 12650 quick exit on Monday.

Stay out if the market didn't come to our entry.

Nasdaq 100 on Monday 16-May-2011

Similar to Dow, sideway, range contracting in range 2408 - 2370, advise to stay out from Nasdaq 100.

p/s: Linked-In to list on 16-May!
DJIA FlashQuotes
Nasdaq 100 FlashQuotes

Gold on 16-May-2011 (Mon)

Short Term trading on Gold

Trend changing in Gold. Market volatile.
Suspect Gold to trade in the symmetrical triangle on Monday and Tuesday. Trading in sideway market requires a lot of patience, just need to wait for the market to come to the support level to trade...

ATR = 30

Engage Short Term Trading, prefer to Long at current price. I am expecting Gold to trade sideway within the symmetrical triangle, awaiting for a meaningful breakout. Upon successful breakout above 1530, Gold will return to 1543, 1560 and finally 1575 double top.

Long on Gold (Short Term Trade)
Long at 1485-1490.
SL 1483 Friday Low
TG1 1512
TG2 1522

If Gold break below 1470, it will travel to the major support 1444-1440 the previous breakout point.

My preference is on the Buy side, basically I believe in the continuous uptrend since Jan 2011 on Daily Chart. Breaking below 1470, I would switch to short term short, and looking to 1440 major support.

Trade Deficit, Budget Deficit..

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens More Than Estimated on Surge in Oil Imports
Source: Bloomberg News

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in March as the highest oil prices in more than two years boosted imports, eclipsing record exports.

WTI Crude price rose to as high as 106.94 on 7-Mar-2011, corrected to below 100 yesterday. Last traded 99.06 USD per barrel.

At the same time, US Dollar index - against a basket of 6 currencies, plunge to as low as 72.86 on 4-May-2011, rebounded to 75.405.

We believe the current situation will keep driving up the cost of imports (lower USD, higher cost of production) ---- while the weak currency will keep US competitive of exporting the goods to emerging markets, yes, as a result of weaker dollar, we shall see more Coach bags, Prada Bags, Gucci Bags... because it looks cheaper with the weak currency now :)

And... ah ha~~ I am very very happy playing with the kids, and talking to my brother, and talking to my sister-in-law, I have so much fun, and I love my brother, I love my niece, I love my sister-in-law! :)

Certainly my brother has so much talent, just a click or two, he can give me an answer -- of a question that has been troubling me for months! oops... come back to Economics. :p

The Trade Gap in US is going to widen a bit... but it must come back to an equilibrium.

The trade gap rose 6 percent to $48.2 billion, the biggest since June, from $45.4 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected it would widen to $47 billion. Sales abroad climbed by the most in 17 years.

Budget Deficit...

US Budget Deficit to Exceed $1 Trillion Again This Year
Source: CNBC

Curb federal Spending, increase tax..
We need more jobs, more employment (more people working), more tax revenue for the government, maintain low interest rate so that we can continue to stimulate the economy, continue to weaken the dollar by printing more and more paper money...

But with QE2 coming to an end (in 2 weeks...?) speculations and rumors are all over the places.

What would be the future of US Economies? DJIA, Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the precious metal like Gold and Silver?

The Merciless Correction in EUR/USD

We talked about US trade deficit and budget deficit last round...
Similarly, while EURO posted 1.4939 against US Dollar, it is definitely not desirable for EU companies - their goods cost more to other countries!

EUR/USD

EUR/USD striked at the high of 1.4939 on 4/5/2011, then the day after this high, EURO currency become volatile* and going through a merciless correction.

*Volatile: Average True Range increased from 120, 150, and now above 200 in 7 trading days.

Last week, EUR/USD settles at 1.4107, we do not see much support that can hold the market up, it is very possible that EUR/USD continue to fall towards 1.3900 in coming week.

My trade for next week is to aggressively aim for short at 1.4150 (50 pips away) and target to close my position when it reach 1.3900-1.3850 region.

We should be able to see sign of pick up towards end of the week.

I am expecting EUR/USD to form a weekly Doji candlestick pattern, taking profit on Wednesday night would be preferred.

Notable events for EUR/USD currency:
MY/SG time (GMT+8)
Monday 16 May @ 9pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks and TIC Long Term Purchase.
Tuesday 17 May @ 5pm German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thursday 19 May @ 2am (Wednesday midnight) US FOMC Meeting Minutes
as usual Thursday night 8:30pm Unemployment claims in US.

Trade Setup EUR/USD for 16-May-2011 to 20-May-2011:
Short 1.4150 - 1.4200
Stop Loss 30 pips
Target 1.3900 - 1.3850 / exit mid of week.

Time to play

My brother, sister-in-law and niece is in town!
Drop all trades, time to play with kids!

Made some handsome profits yesterday, all trades were closed.

China Trade Surplus is higher than expected, indicating more pressure on RMB appreciation.
How would US Trade Balance be like?

Today's Announcement (GMT+8 SG/MY Time)
US 20:30: Mar Trade Balance, expected: -$46.8B

Tomorrow's Announcement (GMT+8 SG/MY Time)
US 20:30: Retail Sale, Expected: 0.5%; PPI, Expected: 0.6%; Unemployment Claims, Prev: 474k.

Astound ourselves

别人不会放弃，因为不是他正在努力奋斗、并且尝尽苦头，别人不在意，因为别人有自己的难题。
如果有一天你放弃，别人只会对你说，多么可惜。
可能与不可能之间的差异，取决于一个人的——决心。
奋斗、挣扎的时候，正是我们最可能爆发成长的时候，如果这时候掉头，留下来的，就是无限的可能。

我们能够自己作主。
我们绝对有能力作自己要做的事。
我们能够做好，并且达到目标。
无论迟·或者早。
只要继续一步一步向前，一定会看见沿路风光，并且，达到不一样的人生。

If we all did the things we are capable of doing,
we would literally astound ourselves.
- Thomas Alva Edison

The difference between the impossible and possible lies in a person's determination, keep moving forward and keep moving, you are capable of making change.

If you are facing a great challenge, you are at the junction of choice, take this opportunity to create a result that might lead to a different destiny.

If we choose to give up, and turn around, we left the unlimited potential and unlimited possibilities behind us.

We are totally capable of making change, we are totally capable of being different.

It all start from a small tiny little step, moving forward, and keep moving forward, no matter slow, or fast.

Keep the determination Alive, remind ourselves again and again of WHY it is important, keep the objective, and vision. We will see the difference.

Transaction

Spot FX (mini) EUR/USD
Long
Level:        1.4303
Stop:         1.4263
Limit:        1.4503