DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 30-Sep-2013

Last trading day for September month.

Image source: http://money.cnn.com
Read their article on: Debt Ceiling

Debt ceiling is like my credit card credit limit.
So now I am the biggest consumer and the biggest client for this merchant bank, I make purchases, I stimulate businesses, I ask for anything I want, I give them businesses...
When I can't pay, I ask the bank to increase my credit limit and enjoy the 'free credit' without thinking of the consequences, nor thinking about my capability to pay.

For the debt ceiling of USD$16.699 trillion.
How many times could I expect the 'bank' increases great America their credit limit?
Where actually the money go?
Number of job is increasing, average wage isn't rising, where has 85 billion gone, back to the banks?

Technical Forecast
DJIA

Market is bearish, it shows tiny little support last week and the resistance has shifted from 15550 pts down to 15350 pts.

15188 pts is within reach just early of next week.

I have not been trading real cash for sometime.
I have the urge to trade live already... so far this year the trades were good, till date 10% capital growth is manageable,
10% is not an encouraging number to a lot of traders out there - I still see 'schools' claiming 100%  (or more!) returns - I just don't know how they make it.
I am worried that I would end up losing my discipline again.

Nasdaq 100

Last week was a volatile week for Nasdaq 100
My forecast is totally wrong.

Trader Alex Siew (check my blogroll) said: if DJIA has been falling and Nasdaq 100 is been rising, must be "boh ho kang tau" (hokkien, implies something fishy is coming up).

Technically, Nasdaq 100 shall continue trading sideways in narrow range within 3205 - 3245 bias up (though I am strong bear for DJIA).
Current Support 3218 pts.

However, if DJIA and Nasdaq 100 is co-related, once DJIA plunge below 15150 pts, I expect Nasdaq 100 to follow suit, breaking below 3204 and then sink to 3180 pts.
Otherwise, breaking above 3245 pts, next target 3260 pts.

This seem contradicting and I hope market to teach me more of their co-relations between Nasdaq 100 and DJIA.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 23 Sep 2013

Last Thursday during FOMC statement (Thursday 2am, GMT+8, SG/MY time), The fed surprises market with a decision not to taper, and to continue the monthly USD85billion bond purchase program.

Market is very volatile and we once again witnessed Mr Ben Bernanke's magic wand to entice the market and shock the market.

DJIA

This is not only my forecast, this chart (above) outlined my hope.
First of all, I expect market to continue trading down to support 15400 - 15450 pts and reverse upward.
might face a little resistance near 15550 pts, there're two possibilities:

One:
Market resisted below 15550 pts and continue trading sideways between 15400 - 15600 pts.

Two:
Market breakout to either side, continue trading higher to 15800
or break down to 15200 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Super bull in NQ never dies.
Never tired.  Never need any rest.

Just go higher Nasdaq 100, target 3260 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold

for the week starting 16-Sep-2013

Gold has fallen below my psychological level and still going lower.
Looking at the weekly chart, I can only see continuation of bearish sentiment, next support $1280 (close to rookie's forecast)

Intraday chart (4H) gold is trading below EMA50, bearish.
Current support (last week low) $1304.

Resistance $1330
Intraday (1H) Gold is trading at oversold area and I hope technically Gold can rebound, I am hoping for rebound - as long as Gold does not trade below $1300, once Gold closed below $1300, $1280 is within reach in a day.

If Gold can sustain above $1304 (last week low) and continue trading higher, next could test resistance $1330 and return to $1355 level.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold

on 16-Sep-2013

Rookie asked me... why he must do GC forecast.
Why why why
and asked me why Fibo numbers are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%..

I said, people give you a bicycle you won't ask: "why 2 wheels?"
Ride.

Rookie said I LCLY (in Hokkien, means arrogant)
Simply because.. I  can't answer the universal rule laaaaaaaaaa

This week rookie trader forecast Gold to sink to $1275 and rebound back to $1315 (weekly opening).
This is a scary range.
total of $40 range in 5 days, Rookie has a gut feel that the fed decision is going to shake the market upside down!

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for week starting 16-Sep-2013

Happy Malaysia Day Malaysian!

Yesterday I have completed a mission to alter my new costume.
Ozone.

They are ready for my next performance.
And I hope my Law Hobna Ghalta will be ready by then too.

America

American jobless claims fell by 31,000 to 292,000 in the week ended 7 September, returning fear of tapering stimulus in this month.

This week, traders will be watching the FOMC meeting for the opinion of FED Chairman Ben Bernanke in monetary policy for new fiscal year on Thu 19-Sep-2013 2am (GMT+8, SG/MY Time)

Retail sales in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August as the biggest part of the economy struggled to gain momentum. The 0.2 percent increase was the smallest in four months and followed a revised 0.4 percent July gain that was bigger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington.

Core Retail sales increased 0.1%, less than forecast of 0.3%.

Survey reported that Americans worried that higher interest rates will put a damper on the housing market and overall growth.  U.S. consumer sentiment sink to a five-month low in September at 76.8, last month 82.1.

DJIA

Market has totally reversed from its down trend and shoot up to the ceiling.
Stock market is strong.

Market is trading near 15550 pts and still resisted below 15650 pts.

My forecast for this week:
DJIA prone to trade in small range between 15450 - 15650 pts until Wednesday.
I don't see what is coming and certainly market is highly sensitive to news and I prefer to stay out.

Breaking above 15650 pts could bring DJIA higher to 15850 pts.
Closed below 15400 pts would chase Dow to 15180 pts.

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 is forever bullish...
Next target 3260 pts.
Current suport 3190 pts.
Strong Support 3160 pts.

If you are another strong believer of the long term bull in Nasdaq 100, entering Long near 3188 pts, SL 3180, TG 3228 pts.

Cheers
Ayumi
~~ here go mind-dancing to my 2013Q4 syllabus.

Gold

Gold for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

This week rookie trader is very sleepy and rookie cannot find support and resistance.
But he changed view from bullish to bearish.

I showed him my forecast and I decided to post it here.

I forecast Gold to trade sidway bias down to support $1350.
This is also a level where I will cautiously hunt for long.
Strong support at $1330.

Although short is preferable, I would patiently wait for Gold to return to $1400 for shorting opportunity.

Cheers
Ayumi

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

for the week starting 9-Sep-2013

DJIA

Weekly candle suggest further upside to test resistance.
Current resistance R1: 15,050 pts, market is trading at 15,015 pts now.
After breaking above 15,050 pts, DJIA shall head higher to R2: 15,200 pts.

Current support 14,930 pts, a good level to hunt long.
ATR : 120 pts

Nasdaq 100
Bullish Nasdaq 100.
Looking forward to AAPL announcement tomorrow.
New iPhone shall be announced, and generally we are also expecting something *new in other i-products.

Once again, Nasdaq 100 break new high.
Support is far away at 3,120 pts.

Next target for Nasdaq 100 @ 3,213 pts.

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

Winning the Olympics means a boost in Nikkei.
While I am driving to work, I receive a sms saying Nikkei jumps nearly 3% after robust data and winning Olympic bids, courtesy from CNBC RT mobile app.

Last Friday DJIA has a volatile trading day, disappointing NFP figures and market close positive for the week.

News & Analysis on NFP
Marc To Market [read]
Bloomberg [read]
Business Insider [read]

Well I think Bernanke and the company is decided to taper the stimulus.
Just a matter of when, this month, or next month.

But the technical chart suggest sideways going to continue.
I shall update with technical chart later today.
NetDania chart go crazy, will update tonight at 10pm (GMT+8).

Syrian War
Why Syrian War matters to Oil Market [read]
Strike on Syria? [read]

iPhone, Apple, What to expect this week on Stock Market
Week Ahead [read]

I discovered this cool page on world index [Index map]

Cheers
Ayumi

Follow Up 6-Sep-2013

I posted an update with my iPhone using Blogspot mobile app but unfortunately it was not being published.

I then discovered blogspot mobile app has an update.  The last time I have missing post was during mobile app update too.

= =

Having been away for 2 weeks without much update, I can see that my forecast didn't go too far from my usual performance.

Forecast Gold to fall during Monday is good, entered Long at 1375, Stop Loss at 1/3 ATR (lowest $1373.74), took profit at 1410 is a safe trade.

Enter Short at $1410 is a bumpy ride, as market reaches to 1416.30 highest (almost hit stop loss price $1417.00) and return to the weekly opening price $1382.20.

Took profit and market continue diving down.
Gold is trading at $1372 region.

Refer to my weekly forecast, if market break below $1375, next strong support should be $1340.




- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

DJIA and Nasdaq 100

For the week starting 2-Sep-2013

US Dollar was firm against most of its major counterparts on Friday - so does today.

On the US economic data front, both personal income and personal spending rose 0.1% MoM (+0.2% and +0.3% expected respectively) in July.
Chicago Purchasing Manager index increased to 53.0 as expected in August from 52.3 the previous month. Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell to 82.1 (80.5 expected) from 85.1 the prior month.

DJIA
It was a bearish week for Dow since August 2013 and DJIA suffered 4 weeks of losses.
The Dow is approaching its 200 days EMA and we suspect the downfall is going to halt for a while .. and we are waiting for the congress meeting / decision over Syrian Civil war.

DJIA shall trade between 14730 - 15030 this week, breaking either side shall set the next trend.
I forecast DJIA to be bearish during early of the week and test support on Wednesday.
I am slight bullish and intend to hunt long around 14750 pts.

If support 14750 does not hold, expect strong support around 14,550 pts.

Nasdaq 100
I would say nothing much on Nasdaq 100, but a good opportunity to trade using fibo level.
Expect Nasdaq 100 to swing bias up.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Gold on 2-Sep-2013

We have a little project with a rookie trader, the red arrows is the forecast and the trend line drawn by Rookie.

What happened:

I am a strong believer than Gold will come down on the first day, and rookie says Gold will be bullish.
I think it turns out to be good for both of us.

I am still waiting to short.

Cheers
Ayumi

Gold for 2-Sep-2013

I intend to start my weekly forecast on Gold price.

Egypt crisis and Syrian Civil War trigger oil prices, Gold/Silver become the natural hedge tool out of warfare.

Gold price has been rising since early of July from $1238 to current $1394.

After almost 2 months of rising, weekly chart shows the first possible reversal.
Last Wednesday 28-Aug-2013, Gold has posted a reversal candlestick pattern in daily chart.

I forecast the first trading day of September will be another down day, Gold price should be resisted below $1400-10 and seeking a lower entry at $1375.

For early of September, market shall consolidate largely between $1375 - $1440.

If the crisis or civil war heighten, market might shoot up higher to $1480 once Gold breaks overhead resistance $1440.

Technical chart suggest that early of September Gold price might come down a little bit before rising higher.
I intend to short near current resistance $1410, and enter long position around $1375.
I will abandon short view once market break above strong resistance $1440.